Chris Greiner
Analyst · Canaccord. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, David. And good afternoon, everyone. In the words of the great Yoda, do or do not. There is no try. I'll spare my voice impersonation, but in all seriousness in the first quarter, Zeta did a lot. I'll cover them in three broad categories. First, I'll share what led to our seventh consecutive quarter of beat and race execution, and how we're navigating a challenging macro backdrop. Second, I'll detail what's driving to continued growth in our sales pipeline in RFPs. We'll also cover our strong sales productivity metrics. Third, a walk through our KPIs and how they continue to power revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth rates above what is required to deliver the Zeta 2025 long term model of at least 1 billion in revenue, 200 million in adjusted EBITDA and 110 million in free cash flow. And I'll wrap up with the details of our 10 million increase to full year revenue guidance and the operating leverage contributing to more than a 2 million increase in adjusted EBITDA guidance to 120 million. Okay with that, let's dive in. Our results illustrate the importance of having a diverse customer set and a multi channel use case revenue model. These characteristics certainly contributed to our execution in a more challenging macro environment. To illustrate this, 9 out of our 10 largest industry verticals grew double digits year-to-year, resulting in first quarter revenue of 158 million, up 25% year-to-year. results like this have been consistent from Zeta with eight out of the last nine quarters delivering revenue growth in excess of 20% while simultaneously expanding adjusted EBITDA margins year-over-year for nine straight quarters; that's a track record very hard to replicate, especially in today's environment. This dual focus on near and long term execution is enabling Zeta to stay ahead of our 2025 long term plan for revenue, profit and cash and staying ahead is underpinned by continuing to execute on our KPIs which in the first quarter, once again powered our growth. Total scaled customer count of 411 was up eight from last quarter and up 52 versus last year representing 14% year-to-year growth, two times the rate of growth required to achieve our Zeta 2025 model of at least 500 skilled customers. The drivers behind the skilled customer increases were encouraging, especially considering seasonality, where the first quarter is oftentimes the most challenging for the mark tech ecosystem. For context the eight scaled customers we added this quarter were more than twice the Q4 to Q1 average sequential change over the last two years. Of the eighth scaled customer increase quarter-to-quarter six were new to Zeta and two were existing customers that became scaled. And we continue to see industries under the most economic pressure choose Zeta. In the super scaled cohort alone, which increased seven quarter-to-quarter, we gained customers and consumer retail advertising and marketing, travel and hospitality and technology industries. We're growing customer count and customer spend on a platform. The first quarter was the 11th consecutive quarter in which scaled customer ARPU grew double digits up 10% year-to-year from first quarter 2022. Our super scaled cohort once again led the way growing ARPU 18% year-to-year with super scaled revenue up 31% year-to-year. At the same time, the pipeline for future super skilled customers those in the 100,000 to 1 million cohort saw strong year-to-year customer count growth of 16%. This was the second quarter in a row where customer count grew 16%. Increases from this cohort driven by pilots can grow to more than 700,000 in the first 12 months as seen on slide 11 of our supplemental earnings presentation, making these customers fertile ground for our farmers. We are also benefiting from an increasing number of connection points added to this ZMP by our product team as shown through the lens of multi channel scaled customer adoption. This is defined by scaled customers using three or more channels, which in the first quarter grew year-over-year by 41% now representing more than 25% of Zeta scaled customers. This is further exemplified in the 100,000 to 1 million and greater than 1 million cohort where both groups saw year -to-year increases in average channels per customer. Shifting to mix and margin. We saw good cost of revenue percentage dynamics in 1Q even with direct mix up against prior year compares that were very strong. A couple of drivers worth noting here. First can be the case with newly added scaled customers, and new buyers like agencies for example, platform usage can start with integrated channels. When this occurs, our track record with these customers shows an evolution to higher direct mix over time. One such example with an existing agency, who is now our super skilled customer shifted its direct mix over a two year period from 7% of revenue to 76% of revenue effectively on par with our corporate average. In the first quarter, we got very strong cost of revenue and leverage dynamics within our direct channels, we absorbed the higher cost of revenue profile of these integrated platform campaigns. In first quarter 2023, our direct revenue mix was 71% and we realized 34.5% the cost of revenue up 140 basis points year-to-year and better by 320 basis points quarter-to-quarter. Just like we communicated in our February conference call, we are not counting on year-to-year reductions in cost of revenue percentage to achieve our 2023 adjusted EBITDA margin expansion guidance of 140 basis points. We developed our guidance in this manner so that if we do better than it is incremental upside to our outlook. From a modeling perspective, we want to continue to be conservative by assuming a similar cost of revenue profile for the remainder of 2023 as we saw in the second half of 2022 which anticipates continued strong new customer additions and more inroads with new buyers like large agencies. We are comfortable with this strategy, because they're generating strong operating expense unit economics, contributing to another quarter of year-over-year adjusted EBITDA margin expansion or nine straight. Excluding stock based compensation, each of our expense to revenue ratios, sales and marketing, G&A and R&D were better year-to-year. Sales and marketing was down 40 basis points, G&A down 60 basis points and R&D down 120 basis points. This led to an adjusted EBITDA on the first quarter of 24 million up 28% year-to-year with adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.3% up 40 basis points year-to-year. On a GAAP basis our first quarter net loss was 57 million, which includes 64 million of stock based compensation. Excluding the accelerated expensing related to our IPO, stock based compensation would have been 22 months. And we continue to drive strong cash generation. Cash flow from operating activities was 20 million, with free cash flow of 10 million acquitting to 42% of adjusted EBITDA. Our success in adding new scaled customers two times faster than our Zeta 2025 model and doing so at a more efficient sales and marketing expense to revenue ratio speaks to the strong sales productivity we're seeing. This is a good segue to my second topic, pipeline growth and sales productivity. We ended the quarter with 130 quota carriers up from 123 at the end of 2022. And as I've always emphasized, this is about quality, not simply quantity. To that end, new sales hires are averaging over 10 years of experience, bringing with them new customer relationships to Zeta. Our optimism and where we're taking our sales organization is rooted in three primary areas. One, the continued growth in the sales pipeline and RFP volumes. Two, the progression of the pipeline, and the performance of our more than 12 month tenured sellers now accounting for almost two thirds of our sales team. And three, our win rates highlighted by the increasing size and duration of deals, and the caliber of enterprises selecting Zeta over the competition. We have some color on each. On the heels of a record pipeline, I 4Q we increase pipeline again in the first quarter growing at a rate two times our quota carrier headcount a metric we measure closely. From an RFP perspective, the first quarter could be seasonally slow. However, that was certainly not the case in 2023. Q1 was our second highest RFP quarter ever. And the eight figure win David mentioned was not a one off. The deals in our pipeline today are bigger and more complex as any time in our history, as Zeta becomes not only an essential strategic partner for their marketing, but also for our customers enterprise intelligence initiatives. Having a great sales pipeline is only meaningful if it's comprised of deals that can progress to closure. Again, back to my point about quality over quantity. The velocity that we move opportunities from the early to the late stage is something we measure rigorously as evidenced by the value of late stage pipeline deals being up over 50% year-to-year. This not only bodes well for sales visibility, but also momentum going into the second half of 2023 and 2024. But of course, this is only relevant if you're winning and yielding the right unit economics along the way. We're experiencing both. First quarter RFP win rates exceeded even our overall win rates. And our experienced sellers, those with Zeta for more than 12 months are responsible for 86% of deals one. These are the class of sellers who completed an initial wave of training, and have made their way through certification programs. Our history with this cohort shows a flywheel effect with great employee retention rates and the competence gained with each deal closed leading to more success as their time with Zeta extends which brings me to my third and final topic 2023 guidance and Zeta 2025 with the context of what is driving our execution out of the gate, the expansion and the visibility we have into our sales pipeline and strong productivity of our sellers we're raising second quarter and full year 2023 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. For the second quarter of 2023 we are increasing the midpoint of revenue guidance by 2 million to 162 million, up 18% year-to-year, a similar starting point as Q1. We're also increasing the midpoint of our second quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance by 900,000 to 24.5 million, up 32% year-to-year, which represents 15.1% margin at the midpoint of guidance, or 160 basis points of year-to-year expansion. This is an acceleration from the 40 basis points of expansion generated in the first quarter. The combination of our first quarter upside and higher second quarter outlook raises the midpoint of our full year 2023 revenue guidance by 10 million to 701 million representing 19% growth year-over-year. On an adjusted EBITDA a basis we're increasing the midpoint of our full year 2023 guidance to 119.7 million, up 30% year-to-year. At the midpoint of our increased full year guidance, adjusted EBITDA margins, would expand 140 basis points year-to-year to 17%. Lastly, we're providing the quarterly cadence of third and fourth quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA on slide 14 in the earnings supplemental deck. As I wrap up my prepared remarks, I want to leave you with three final thoughts. First, zooming in, we continue to be a team delivering on our commitments, and more. Zooming out our top and bottom line growth rates continue to track ahead of the compound annual growth rates required to deliver our Zeta 2025 long term plan. There simply are not a lot of businesses with sustained 20% plus growth and expanding adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow margins in the technology universe today. We're really proud of that, and it's a big motivator for the team. And third, while we spend a lot of time on near and long term goals, Zeta doesn't end in 2025 far from it, as shown in our wins and the opportunities we're pursuing. We believe Zeta is being recognized as a platform that the largest and most complex enterprises can rely on to grow their businesses profitably. Now, let me hand the call back to the operator for me and David to take your questions. Operator?