Chris Greiner
Analyst · Oppenheimer. Please go ahead
Thank you, David, and good afternoon, everyone. I will cover three topics on today’s call. First, we continue to be a business delivering beyond its commitments. Fourth quarter results once again exceeded expectations, highlighted by top and bottomline growth rates pacing ahead of the Zeta 2025 model. Second, 2022’s results established yet another data point in a multiyear trend of accelerating revenue growth, sustained operating leverage and margin expansion. And third just like last year, our 2023 guidance is above the street and still set purposely conservative intending to be the starting point for how we build throughout the year. Additionally we are adding free cash flow as a component of our Zeta 2025 plan. So lots of great things to cover. So let’s dive in. Our credibility is our currency, since going public we have built a track record of beat and raise execution with six straight quarters delivering above our guidance. This last quarter was no exception. In the fourth quarter revenue was $175 million, up 30% year-to-year and 9 points above the midpoint of guidance. Upside in the quarter was broad based and not attributable to any single factor. Our U.S. revenue grew 32% year-to-year. The third straight quarter growing over 30% and is 96% of total Zeta revenue. Large enterprises from diverse industries are choosing Zeta and what we see as early innings of a replacement cycle. We ended the quarter with 403 scaled customers, up 14 from the third quarter and up 14% year-to-year, both pacing well ahead of our Zeta 2025 model. Filling this back a couple of more layers, six new scaled customers came from consumer and retail, two from financial services, two from advertising and marketing and four from technology services and others. Out of the 14 new scaled customers, five were new to Zeta and nine were existing customers that became scaled a consistent mix from prior periods. Scaled customers are adding more channels and more use cases as they achieve better return on investment outcomes from the Zeta Marketing Platform. By a way of evidence, scaled customer quarterly ARPU of 424,000 grew 15% year-to-year, and while ahead of our Zeta 2025 model, what really stood out was ARPU growth within our superscaled cohort. Superscaled quarterly ARPU was 1.3 million, up 26% year-to-year. This drove 34% year-to-year revenue growth in our superscaled cohort despite a small decrease in superscaled customer count due to the oscillation around the 1 million scaled versus superscaled cut-off point. You recall we increase ARPU from up-sell and cross-sell activity tied to adding channels and use cases. During the fourth quarter, we continued our strong trend on each dimension. From adding channels perspective, scaled customers now average over two channels per customer. In fact scaled customers using four or more channels grew over 50% from a year ago to 53%. And associated with the strong superscaled ARPU growth I just highlighted, the average channels used for superscaled customer is approaching three at 2.8. In terms of increasing multiple use cases, we continue to make exciting inroads. All three of Zeta is use cases acquire, grow, and retain grew double-digits year-over-year, led by acquire and grow, and the number of new scaled customers using more than one use case increased to 46, up from 33% a year ago or 39% year-to-year. Our diversification of customers was evident across verticals with six out of our top 10 growing over 25%. No vertical represents more than 30% of our revenue. And of note, fourth quarter mid-term candidate revenue was 4.5 million, slightly better than our guidance of 4 million. On a GAAP basis our net loss was $52 million, which includes $68 million of stock-based compensation. Excluding the accelerating expensing related to our IPO stock based compensation would have been $15 million. For the quarter we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $32.4 million, up 42% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.5%, up 150 basis points year-over-year. Briefly switching to our full year 2022 results, revenue of $591 million was up 29% year-to-year, which exceeded even our internal plan for the year. Our direct platform revenue mix for the year increased to 77% up from 76% in 2021. And for the year, direct revenue grew 32% versus 2021. Full year GAAP cost of revenue ended at 36.5%, down from 38.1% in 2021 and like many of our Zeta 2025 revenue KPIs, this decrease of 170 basis points from 2022 to 2021 is well ahead of our model of 60 basis points of improvement. We continue to see healthy expansion of existing customers as demonstrated by net revenue retention of 112% in 2022 consistent with our model of 110% to 215% and in line with last year. On a GAAP basis, our 2022 net loss was $279 million, which includes $299 million of stock-based compensation. Excluding the accelerated expensing related to our IPO, stock-based compensation would have been $57 million and for the year we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $92.2 million, up 46% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.6%, up 180 basis points year-to-year. We realized strong cash generation and an increased conversion from adjusted EBITDA of 42% in 2022 versus 28% in 2021. And more specifically, cash flow from operating activity was $78 million, up 77%, with free cash flow of $39 million, up 123%. This brings me to my second topic. Zeta has been delivering sustained operating leverage over a multiyear period, something we expect to continue as we drive towards Zeta 2025. In that setting, it’s valuable to take a step back at the trajectory we have established and expanding profitability, while simultaneously accelerating revenue growth at scale. Since 2019, Zeta is head count has only grown from 1,414 members to 1,604 ending 2022, just a 5% compound annual growth rate over that period. Because of our globally distributed resource model, we can add teammates for impact and efficiency at the same time. For example from 2019 to 2022, U.S. headcount grew nearly 2% annually, while global centers, primarily in India and Prague have expanded 7% annually. Meanwhile revenue growth accelerated each year from 2019 to 2022, with a three-year compound annual growth rate of 25% or 5 times the rate of headcount growth over the same period. That’s the recipe for sustained operating leverage. Altogether, our adjusted EBITDA margins have grown from 8% in 2019 to 15.6% in 2022, averaging 260 basis points of expansion per year, well ahead of our Zeta 2025 model of 160 basis points. What we have accomplished over this period is humbling. We have achieved product category leadership as recognized by multiple industry analysts, while many competitors are pulling investment and going backwards. We transformed to a new go-to market by shifting to a hunter farmer model and greatly expanding our branding and demand generation capabilities. Total quota carriers have more than doubled from 2019 to 123 sales reps ending 2022. And of course, we established the back-office infrastructure to be a public company and we are emerging as a leading place to work a key component that Zeta 2025 inside our company. In fact, we are not only attracting great talent with our culture, we are retaining teammates as well. We have a 95% leadership retention rate at the VP level and above and we have accomplished all of this, while reducing G&A excluding stock-based compensation as a percentage of revenue every year since 2019 going from 24% to now 17% in 2022. The use of our own AI in automation is aiding in the realization of operational efficiencies. Which brings me to my third topic, our initial 2023 guidance and Zeta 2025 updates, clearly the market backdrop is turbulent. But we are still seeing strong demand for platforms delivering a lower total cost ownership, generating verifiable ROIs and offering fast implementations. The ZMP delivers on each. As a point of reference, as Zeta CFO, I am replacing multiple legacy point solution vendors in our back office by implementing a single platform, allowing us to lower expense and simplify systems. CXOs are using the same period of opportunity to make similar decisions across their technology stacks. Our sales pipeline reflects this theme of consolidation and is currently at an all-time high. We have been speaking throughout 2022 about RFP volumes being up. What is also interesting is the dollar value of those deals is growing even faster. This is because brands need to consolidate multiple point solutions in their marketing stack, opening up bigger contract value opportunities for hours ZMP to replace. And while we are optimistic about our win rates, sales capacity and opportunity pipeline, we believe it remains prudent to set initial 2023 guidance purposely conservative. We want this to be clearly understood as a starting point for how we will build throughout the year, which is consistent with the approach we took at the same time last year. Even in doing so, our view of the full year 2023 is $20 million higher than consensus on the top line and greater than the $15 million of upside we delivered in the fourth quarter. Guidance figures are as follows as seen on slide 16 in our supplemental. With respect to full year 2023 revenue, we expect to generate $691 million or 17% year-to-year growth at the midpoint of our range. From a quarterly cadence perspective, we expect 2023 to follow our three-year average revenue linearity which we outlined on slide 17 of our earnings supplemental. The share of revenue delivered in each quarter as a percentage of the total has adhered to a very tight range that we expect to continue, and therefore, is prudent to follow as you spread our full year guidance across the quarters. With that in mind, in the first quarter of 2023, we expect to generate revenue of $150 million, up 19% year-to-year at the midpoint of our range. In terms of adjusted EBITDA, for the full year of 2023, we expect to generate $117.4 million or 17% margin at the midpoint of our range. This represents 140 basis points of improvement from 2022 and consistent with the expansion required to achieve Zeta 2025 of adjusted EBITDA margins of at least 20%. One point of note, last year’s adjusted EBITDA margin expansion was driven by a combination of a lower cost of revenue percentage, as well as leverage in G&A and R&D. As we think about 2023 adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, it’s our expectation, more leverage will come through each of our operating expense budgets rather than cost of revenue. For the first quarter, we expect to generate adjusted EBITDA of $22.6 million, representing a margin of 15% at the midpoint of a range. We are also introducing free cash flow as a target to Zeta 2025. In addition to generating at least $1 billion in revenue and at least $200 million in adjusted EBITDA, we also expect to yield at least $110 million of free cash flow. This implies 55% of our adjusted EBITDA will convert to free cash flow by 2025, up from 42% we achieved in 2022. It also factors the adverse impact of higher interest expense. Finally, in terms of KPIs, we are increasing scaled customer count targets to more than 500 by 2025, up from our initial target of 450. To recap, our mantra as a public company is quite simple and continues to reflect three core principles. One, exceed expectations; two, guide conservatively; and three, drive revenue and margins higher. We believe this approach gives investors confidence, confidence we can execute on our pipelines, derisk for an uncertain macro and further expand our operating leverage characteristics. With that, let’s move to questions. Operator?