Chris Greiner
Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead
Thank you, David, and good afternoon everyone. I’ll cover three themes highlighting another very strong set of results. First, we extended our track record to eight straight beat-and-raised quarters, and once again exceeded the top and bottom line compound annual growth rates required to achieve our Zeta 2025 plan. As seen on Slide 7 in our earnings supplemental, our trailing 12-month growth rates for revenue and adjusted EBITDA are pacing six points ahead of the original Zeta 2025 compound annual growth rate established in February, 2022. This trajectory of pacing ahead of $1 billion in revenue and $200 million in adjusted EBITDA by 2025 is certainly not captured in Zeta’s valuation today. Second, we delivered another quarter where profit grew even faster than revenue, generating 210 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, cash flow from operating activities of $21 million, up 41% year-to-year and free cash flow of $13 million up 110% year-to-year. We’re doing what we said we would do, grow our universe of new buyers, drive our Zeta 2025 KPIs and extract significant operating leverage from our expense structure. And third, we’re raising guidance. We are increasing guidance for the contribution of last quarter’s M&A plus flowing through and raising the organic overachievement for the full year in revenue and profit. I’ll discuss this in detail in today’s call and can also be found on Slide 14 in our supplemental earnings material for additional clarity. Now, let’s dive into each of these results for more detail. Starting with our results. Total revenue of $172 million grew 25% year-to-year or 24% on an organic basis. We exceeded the midpoint of revenue guidance and consensus by $9.8 million with $1.8 million of the upside coming from the March, 2023 acquisition of WhatCounts. The strength of our quarter was once again highlighted by the addition of scaled and super-scaled customers at a pace that continues to be firmly ahead of our Zeta 2025 model. We ended 2Q with 425 scaled customers up 14 from last quarter and up 14%, which translates to 52 net new scaled customers over the last year. This is a nice acceleration from the 30 added for the prior four quarter period and double the growth rate required for Zeta 2025. We added new scaled customers in each month of the quarter with most new additions coming from industries such as consumer retail, travel and hospitality education and technology and media. Out of the 14 scaled customers added quarter-to-quarter, nine were new to Zeta and five were existing customers that became scaled. Out of the one million super-scaled customers we were up eight quarter-to-quarter to 118 and up 18% year-to-year. Six out of our 10 largest industry verticals grew over 25% again this quarter. As you’ve heard me say for many quarters now, while Zeta has been executing very well and growing profitably through a choppy macro backdrop, we’re not immune from its challenges. We continue to see pressure in the insurance vertical as the industry works through elevated loss ratios and premium increases. Our view is this is an industry specific dynamic and nearing the bottom of the spending cycle. Nevertheless, it’s another example illustrating the industry diversification of the portfolio, how resilient the balance of the customer set has been and how our value proposition of the platform is resonating with buyers. Total scaled customer ARPU was 392,000, up 10% year-to-year, and the 12th straight quarter of double-digit growth. It’s worth noting since announcing Zeta 2025, six quarters ago, we have exceeded our scaled customer count growth target every quarter. Not surprisingly, with the adoption and scaling of pilots, more customers are entering at lower bands, which is a factor driving overall ARPU growth. We view pilots as core to our land, expand, extend strategy, and a healthy indicator as these are the pipeline for future super scaled customers. A good example of the land expand, extend strategy is the progression scaled customers make in adding channels throughout their platform journey with Zeta. As seen on Slide 10 in our supplemental earnings presentation, there is a 70% increase in channel adoption between our 100K to one million scaled customers and our one million plus super scaled customers. This translates to a 10 times ARPU differential between the two cohorts. A massive opportunity with the enterprises already spending hundreds of millions to billions in marketing. A large percentage of which we can address. Direct mix of 75% improved four points from 71% last quarter. Furthermore, direct revenue growth accelerated from 10% year-to-year in the first quarter of 2023 to 15% year-to-year in 2Q 2023. In 2023 direct mix continues to be influenced by the addition of new agency customers who have started their journey leveraging Zeta’s data and measurement and started their activation on social channels like Meta or TikTok. As a reminder, we anticipated this and as we communicated last quarter, it is common for agency platform usage to start with integrated channels and extend and grow over time to Zeta owned and operated channels. We have good visibility into their progression to our channels based upon our history with other agencies and how our sellers are incentivized. The advantage customers have with using Zeta’s data and owned channels is the ability to maintain a single thread of identity throughout their omnichannel strategy. Additionally, by relying on Zeta data and having access to our data cloud, we also create a wedge to bridge from marketing activities to also become their enterprise intelligence layer. In fact, we’ve already started executing on this enterprise layer strategy by integrating with agencies through a co-branded intelligence solution. In this model, Zeta provides the tech stack data and future innovation, which powers an agency branded solution. This model is highly scalable, provides Zeta with incremental high margin revenue and represents a contracting change from consumption to subscription recurring revenue streams. We’re very excited about this as it can transform our customer relationships while also serving as a catalyst for future growth in recurring revenue mix. For the remainder of 2023, we expect direct revenue mix to be in the range of 70% to 75%, which is consistent with the mix we assumed in our guidance at the beginning of the year and consistent with the expectations we outlined last quarter for GAAP cost of revenue percentage being equal to the average of second half 2022 or 38%. Sales productivity metrics remain strong and because of that, we do not believe we need to add as many new quarter carriers as previously thought. One of the many benefits we’re seeing from our best of breed sales management system is to use predictive metrics that enable us to fail fast and hire smarter. Along those lines, in conjunction with our April annual revenue performance review cycle and this quarter’s M&A related restructuring activity, we reduced redundant roles and unproductive sellers. At the same time, we maintained our historical hiring cadence resulting in no net change in quota carriers quarter-to-quarter, but still up 13% year-over-year at 130. In addition to our pipeline growth from our demand generation engine sales development reps and quota carriers, we are also seeing strong contribution from our Snowflake partnership. In fact, this past quarter we were honored to be named powered by Snowflake’s Go-to-Market Partner of the Year, which brings me to the topic of accelerating profitability. In the second quarter, we delivered our 10th straight quarter of expanding adjusted EBITDA margins year-to-year. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $27 million, up 45% year-to-year with adjusted EBITDA margins of 15.6% up 210 basis points year-to-year. It’s worth noting that in the second quarter it was the first time we’ve seen adjusted EBITDA margins increase over the first quarter going from 15.3% in the first quarter of 2023 to 15.6% in the second quarter of 2023. Driving operating leverages productivity and sales and marketing, which excluding stock-based compensation fell 120 basis points year-to-year to 24.4% as a percentage of revenue. R&D expense to revenue excluding stock-based compensation fell 70 points year-to-year to 6.9%. As we continue to benefit from our global engineering and data science workforce. And G&A expense to revenue excluding stock-based compensation fell 60 basis points year-to-year to 17.4%. GAAP cost of revenue came in at 36.1%, down 50 basis points year-to-year and was up 160 basis points quarter-to-quarter due to the impact of agency customers, which I discussed earlier. Importantly, we continue to see low cost of revenue within our direct channels. On a GAAP basis our 2Q 2023 net loss was $52 million, which includes $58 million of stock-based compensation. Excluding the accelerated expensing related to our IPO stock-based compensation would’ve been $21 million. In the quarter, we also incurred a $2.8 million restructuring expense following the rapid integration of WhatCounts and the broader synergies we are realizing across the business as we look to drive towards Zeta 2025s long-term model of at least 20% adjusted EBITDA margins. With this focus on efficiency and expertise in driving M&A synergies, we are delivering strong cash generation. Cash flow from operating activities was $21 million, up 41% year-to-year with free cash flow of $13 million up 110% year-to-year. This equates to 48% of adjusted EBITDA up from 42% last quarter and 33% last year, which brings me to my third topic, our increased third quarter and full year guidance. For grounding purposes, as outlined in the guidance table on Slide 14 of our earnings supplemental material, we are clearly delineating increases in guidance related to last quarter’s M&A from increases related to the company’s organic overachievement. For the third quarter, we are increasing the midpoint of revenue guidance by $3 million to $179 million up 18% year-to-year. Out of this increase, $1.5 million is attributable to the acquisition of WhatCounts and $1.5 million is organic upside. Excluding last year’s political candidate revenue of $3 million, the midpoint of organic revenue growth is 19%. In terms of adjusted EBITDA, we’re guiding to a midpoint of $32 million or 17.9% margin. This represents dollar based growth of 43% year-to-year, 320 basis points of margin expansion, which is a 90 basis point improvement versus our previous guidance. For the full year of 2023 we’re guiding to the midpoint of revenue of $715 million up 21% year-to-year and $14 million more than previous guidance. Our guidance includes $5.6 million for the acquisition of WhatCounts and the additional $8.7 million is organic upside. On an organic basis, our 2023 revenue guidance implies 20% growth and excluding last year’s political candidate revenue of $7.5 million, the midpoint of organic revenue growth is 22%. In terms of adjusted EBITDA, we’re guiding to a full year midpoint of $124.5 million or 17.4% margin. This represents dollar based growth of 35% year-to-year and 180 points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, which is 30 basis points better than our previous guidance. As a reminder, during the third and fourth quarter of 2022, Zeta had a total of $7.5 million of political candidate revenue that we do not anticipate repeating in 2023. These results in a full year 2023 organic growth headwind of 160 basis points, including a headwind to 3Q of 230 basis points or $3 million and a headwind to Q4 of 310 basis points or $4.5 million. Slide 16 in our earnings supplemental material outlines this in detail. Before turning to Q&A, let me quickly close with a couple final thoughts. First, we continue to demonstrate the ability to execute with short-term precision while also investing to maintain a trajectory to beat our long-term data 2025 model of at least $1 billion in revenue, at least $200 million in adjusted EBITDA and at least $110 million in free cash flow. And second, we continue to accelerate profit and cash generation through increased leverage against our disciplined cost structure. For 10 consecutive quarters, we have expanded adjusted EBITDA margins year-to-year while continuing to deliver consistent 20% plus revenue growth. Now, let me hand the call back to the operator for David and me to take your questions. Operator?