Bret Richter
Analyst · Barclays. Ross, your line is live
Thank you, Vivek. Let's discuss our financial results. Our earnings release reflects both our GAAP and adjusted financial results for Q4 and fiscal year 2024. We will focus our discussion today, and my commentary will primarily relate to our Q4 2024 adjusted financial results and their prior period comparisons. Let's turn to Slide 7 for the summary of our Q4 2024 financial results. As Vivek addressed our new reporting structure and the content of Slide 4, Slide 5 and Slide 6 in his remarks. Fourth quarter 2024 revenue was $412.8 million as compared with revenue of $389.9 million for the prior year period, reflecting growth of 5.9%. Fourth quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA was $171.8 million, as compared with $167.6 million for the prior year period, reflecting 2.5% growth. Our adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 41.6%. We reported fourth quarter adjusted diluted EPS of $2.58. This figure reflects a 10.7% increase, as compared with our Q4 2023 adjusted results. Turning to Slide 8. Our fiscal year 2024 total revenue increased 2.8% to $1,401.7 million as compared with fiscal year 2023. Fiscal year 2024 adjusted EBITDA grew 2.3% to $493.5 million as compared with fiscal year 2023 adjusted EBITDA, primarily reflecting the growth in revenue. Our adjusted EBITDA margin for fiscal year 2024 was 35.2% and relatively constant as compared with fiscal year 2023. Adjusted diluted EPS grew 6.9% to $6.62, as compared with fiscal year 2023 adjusted diluted EPS. Importantly, revenues, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted EPS all reflect year-over-year growth for both the fourth quarter and fiscal 2024, each as compared with the prior year comparable periods. However, Q4 2024 revenues fell short of our expectations, and the flow-through of this shortfall negatively impacted fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted EPS. As Vivek noted, the two most significant contributors to this shortfall were our Humble Games Publishing business and our Connectivity business. Humble Games Publishing fell short of our Q4 expectations, driven by a combination of new releases moving into 2025 as well as underperformance of a couple of titles. Humble Games Publishing generally delivers less predictable results than certain of our other businesses. As noted on prior calls, we are focused on delivering our existing slate of games in development for release in 2025 and 2026. Connectivity did not see the level of large deal activity, that was expected in Q4, including the absence of certain historical data sales that would have resulted in Q4 revenue recognition. However, we do not see either of these matters as impacting Connectivity's future prospects, and we look forward to a strong 2025. Q4 2024 revenues also reflect certain indirect tax accruals, which were netted against reported revenue. These amounts included the results of an indirect tax audit, which resulted in an unexpected contra-revenue item, that also impacted adjusted EBITDA. While none of these items were particularly large, as compared to the overall scale of our activities, cumulatively, they negatively impacted our Q4 revenue performance. Overall, 2024 was an important year for the company, as we returned to growth. Fiscal year 2024 revenue and adjusted EBITDA both grew year-over-year, and we delivered high single-digits growth in adjusted diluted EPS, which reflects not only our operating performance, but the impact of our balance sheet management and capital allocation decisions as well. I will cover certain of those capital allocation decisions in more detail in a moment. Slide 9 and Slide 10 reflect performance summaries for our two primary sources of revenue, advertising and performance marketing and subscription and licensing. Slide 9 reflects our Q4 and fiscal year 2024 advertising and performance marketing revenue. Q4 2024 advertising and performance marketing revenue grew 10.6%, as compared with the prior year period, and fiscal year 2024 advertising and performance marketing revenue grew by 4.1%, as compared with 2023. Excluding our B2B tech business, advertising and performance marketing revenues would have grown by 12% in Q4 and 5.6% for all of 2024. The table at the bottom of Slide 9 depicts certain key operating metrics for the fourth quarter. Our net advertising revenue retention and annual 12-month measure was approximately 92% for Q4 2024, a significant improvement as compared with Q4 2023. In the fourth quarter, Ziff Davis had 1899 advertisers with an average quarterly revenue per advertiser of more than $135,000, significantly higher than the comparable Q4 2023 metric. Slide 10 depicts our subscription and licensing revenue performance. Q4 2024 subscription and licensing revenue grew approximately 1%, as compared with the prior year period, and these revenues grew nearly 2% during the last twelve months. The table on the bottom of Slide 10 includes subscription and licensing metrics for the fourth quarter. Total subscription and licensing customers increased to 3.65 million customers, which includes growth at Humble Bundle and Lose IT! Our average quarterly revenue per customer was $40.44 and subscription and licensing churn was 2.83%. With regard to the balance of our revenue, the company's Q4 2024 other revenues declined year-over-year to $7.5 million from $10.5 million in Q4 2023. With regard to our balance sheet, please refer to Slide 11. As of the end of Q4 2024, we had $506 million of cash and cash equivalents and approximately $158 million of long-term investments. We also continue to have significant leverage capacity, both on a gross and net leverage basis. As of the end of 2024, gross leverage was 1.8 times trailing twelve months adjusted EBITDA, and our net leverage was 0.7 times and only 0.4 times, if you include the value of our long-term investments. 2024 was a very active year for our capital allocation activities. First and foremost, 2024 reflected a significant increase in M&A activity as compared, with 2022 and 2023. During 2024, we deployed more than $225 million for current and prior year acquisitions. Our Cybersecurity and Martech business closed one small acquisition in the fourth quarter, marking its first transaction since 2021. As a reminder, during Q3 2024, we also completed an exchange offer for $400.9 million of our 1.75% convertible notes due 2026. As a result of this transaction, we've reduced the gross amount of our outstanding debt by $138 million, extended the maturity of $263 million of our debt principal outstanding and reduced the total number of shares underlying our outstanding convertible debt by more than 1.1 million shares. During 2024, we also deployed more than $185 million in capital to repurchase our common shares. Included in this amount is a repurchase of 3.5 million shares in the open market or approximately 7.6% of our shares outstanding, as of the beginning of 2024. Although we did not repurchase any shares in the open market during the fourth quarter, there are more than 6.2 million remaining shares authorized under our stock repurchase program, and we will continue to be opportunistic with regard to future stock repurchases. Our balance sheet is one of our most valuable assets, particularly in the context of our M&A strategy and our overall capital allocation strategy. We continue to pursue transactions of various sizes across all of our businesses, and we look forward to a significant level of M&A activity in 2025 and beyond. Turning to Slide 13 and Slide 14, which provide certain details relating to our 2025 guidance range. Our guidance range reflects growth in revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted EPS at both the high-end and the low-end of each metrics guidance range. Our guidance reflects an improving outlook for our reportable segments. In particular, we expect improved performance from Tech & Shopping and Health & Wellness, in part due to lapping certain specific 2024 performance challenges. We expect continued growth from our Gaming & Entertainment business and a significant increase in Connectivity's growth. Finally, we believe Cybersecurity and Martech will continue to improve. The high end of our guidance for 2025 revenue-adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted EPS reflects growth rates of approximately 7.2%, 9.8% and 10% as compared with the unaudited results we present today. The low-end reflects growth of approximately 2.9%, 2.3% and 0.3% for revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted EPS, respectively. Our EPS guidance reflects the adjusted EBITDA range, higher depreciation from our recent and planned capital investments, higher net interest expense, slightly higher taxes, and a lower average share count each as compared with 2024. The midpoint of our guidance reflects mid-single-digits growth in advertising and performance marketing revenue, subscription and licensing revenue growth in the low to mid-single-digits and low teens on the revenue growth, each as compared with the prior year period. The midpoint also reflects modest revenue growth in the first quarter, and a higher rate of growth in the second half of the year, as compared with the first half. 2025 expected revenue growth is a function of both organic growth and inorganic growth from recent acquisitions. We expect our first quarter performance to be relatively muted, as compared with our expectations for the balance of the year. Our Q1 2024 results reflected a particularly strong quarter for Cybersecurity and Martech, and we expect Q1 2025 to more closely reflect the year end 2024 run rate of the business. We also have initiated and are expected to continue certain spending initiatives, which are expected to suppress Q1 2025 margins as compared with Q1 2024. However, we expect second quarter growth and margins to begin to improve, as we continue to pursue our full year growth plan. Given the seasonality of our advertising and performance marketing revenue, we anticipate that, more than 20% of our revenues will be realized in the first quarter, with approximately 30% expected in the fourth quarter. At the midpoint of our range, the company expects to have an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 35.5% for the year, a slight improvement, as compared with 2024. We maintain the range of our projected tax rate at an annual rate of between 23.25% and 25.25%. Note, these rates are expected to fluctuate quarterly. Our guidance does not reflect incremental M&A or additional share repurchases in 2025. However, we plan to continue to maintain an active capital allocation program. We believe this guidance reflects the proper balance of pursuing investments in our business to support growth opportunities in 2025 and beyond, and our focus on delivering profitable growth, robust adjusted EBITDA margins and free cash flow generation. We plan to continue to rely on the free cash flow we generate to support our capital allocation strategy. And as noted earlier, we believe we have substantial leverage capacity to support larger capital allocation initiatives, if the right circumstances arise. Following our business outlook slides are our supplemental materials, including reconciliation statements for the various non-GAAP measures to the nearest GAAP equivalent. Please see Slide 26, which includes a reconciliation of free cash flow to net cash provided by operating activities. Our 2024 free cash flow was more than $283 million, a significant increase as compared with 2023. As shown on this slide, Q4 2024 free cash flow of $131 million nearly doubled, as compared with Q4 2023. Fiscal year 2024 free cash flow reflects 57.5% of our 2024 fiscal year adjusted EBITDA of $493.5 million. These figures include a significant contribution from our TDS business, which has a seasonally high level of activity and free cash flow during the fourth quarter. Consistent with 2024, TDS is expected to have significant working capital usage in the first quarter. As Vivek noted, 2024 marked a return to growth for our company. We look forward to continuing that growth in 2025. This call also marks a new presentation of the financial results of our company. We believe this reporting structure will ultimately allow investors to gain deeper insight into each of our reportable segments, and we trust that, the information that we presented today will give our stakeholders a deeper appreciation of the diversity of our revenue composition, the scale of our businesses and the strength of their margins. With this information, we hope you will develop a clearer understanding of the intrinsic value of these businesses, and why we are excited for the upcoming year and beyond. With that, I would now ask the operator to rejoin us and instruct you on how to queue for questions.