David Wyshner
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Thanks, Geoff and good morning everyone. Today, I'd like to discuss our third quarter results which were strong and at the high end of our expectations as well as our balance sheet, capital allocation and our 2018 outlook. My comments will be primarily focused on our adjusted metrics you can find our complete results in our earnings release including reconciliations of adjusted amounts to GAAP numbers and walk downs of adjusted amounts to further adjusted metrics that reflect what our business would look like if our spin off and the acquisition and integration of La Quinta had all occurred on January 1. As we mentioned last quarter, our results reflect our mid-year acquisition of La Quinta and our mid-year spin off from Wyndham Worldwide. In that context, we believe that the adjusted figures we're providing are helpful in understanding how our business performed and how it will look on a go forward basis. Our total revenues grew 74% in the third quarter including $238 million of incremental revenues from La Quinta. Excluding the acquisition, revenues grew 5% primarily due to 4% higher royalties and franchise fees as well as higher license and other fees. Adjusted EBITDA increased 34% or 7% in constant currency and excluding our 2018 acquisitions and divestitures. Royalty and franchise fee revenues increased $31 million or 29% including a 25.0 contribution from La Quinta. License fees from Wyndham Destinations were $30 million compared to $16 million in the third quarter of 2017. The timing of marketing spends muted our EBITDA growth in the third quarter. Excluding La Quinta, marketing and reservation revenues exceeded marketing and reservation expenses by $7 million in the third quarter of 2018, compared to $14 million in third quarter 2017. This timing difference wasn't a surprise to us, but it did suppress our third quarter EBITDA growth by $7 million. Our global RevPAR grew 10% in constant currency in the third quarter, including 6 points from La Quinta. Domestic RevPAR grew 11% in the quarter reflecting 6 points from La Quinta and 3 points from the divestiture of Knights Inn. Excluding these brands, our U.S. RevPAR growth was 2.4%. This growth was pull down by roughly 0.5 of a point due to lapping the hurricane related benefit that we saw in the third quarter last year. In fact, the sequential RevPAR progression, we're seeing from Q2 to Q3 is being driven primarily by hurricane impacts, which were benefit in the first half of the year and became a headwind in the third quarter as we anniversary them. When we back out hurricane effects and 2018 acquisitions and divestitures, our U.S. RevPAR growth was 2.5% in the first quarter, 2.6% in the second quarter and 3.1% in the third quarter. International RevPAR increased 6% in constant currency in the third quarter, all of which was organic, reflecting strong performance in a range of geographies including Canada, Turkey and Brazil. During the fourth quarter, we expect a headwind from Hurricanes of approximately 200 basis points in global RevPAR and approximately 280 basis points in U.S. RevPAR as we lap last year's benefits. This is reflected in our full year global and constant currency RevPAR growth projection of approximately 3%. As Geoff mentioned, net system size was up 13% year-over-year or 3% excluding the impact of our 2018 acquisitions and divestitures. Our total pipeline now stands at over 176,000 rooms, of which 54% are international and 71% are new construction. La Quinta pipeline now stands at over 24,000 rooms, 90% of which are new construction. Sequentially compared to the second quarter, our global pipeline increased 3%. Excluding our 2018 acquisitions and divestitures, our global pipeline is up 5% year-over-year. Globally, again excluding our 2018 transactions our average royalty rate was unchanged year-over-year in the third quarter. As Geoff also mentioned, we continue to expect to achieve $55 million to $70 million in total synergies from the La Quinta acquisition, we are on target with both our expected timing of synergy realization and the amount of salary and benefit savings. As a reminder, virtually all of the synergies we projected are cost savings. We realized $8 million of synergies at La Quinta in the quarter, which puts our annual - which puts our run rate of annual synergies at $32 million. We expect this to increase to $35 million to $40 million at year end. The math associated with this is that it will allow us to deliver to $8 million to $9 million of actual synergy benefits during the fourth quarter. We continue to target completion of substantially all of our integration work in the first half of 2019 as we add La Quinta onto our technology platforms and loyalty programs, positioning us to reach full run rate synergies in the second half of 2019. As a reminder, you should expect La Quinta to contribute about $9 million to $12 million of EBITDA per month in 2018, subject to some seasonality growing to around $13 million to $14 million per month by late 2019 as the business is fully integrated. At September 30, we had $387 million of cash on our balance sheet, we started the quarter holding $240 million of cash that we will ultimately paid to Tax authorities and core point lodging in conjunction with our acquisition of La Quinta. As of September 30, we still had $205 million this temporary cash on our balance sheet. Excluding the $35 million tax payment we made, we generated $81 million of free cash flow during the quarter, which we used primarily for share repurchase and dividends. Our debt balance remained at approximately $2.1 billion carrying a weighted average interest rate of 4.7%. Three quarters of our debt is fixed rate or swap to fixed. There were no borrowings outstanding under our revolving credit facility. Excluding the $205 million of temporary cash, our net leverage was 3.3 times to midpoint of our 2018 further adjusted EBITDA forecast were in the lower half of our 3 to 4 times net leverage target. As we mentioned in August, our primary goal is to grow our business organically and we will deploy a portion of our free cash flow for development advances and similar opportunities. We will also continue to deploy free cash to pay dividends. Beyond that, we will allocate cash flow to tuck-in acquisitions at our both strategic and accretive and to share repurchases with the amount going to each depending largely on the opportunities that are available. On that note, we paid our second quarterly dividend of $25 million or $0.25 per share in September, and we repurchased 778,000 shares of common stock for $44 million in the third quarter. We've retired more than 1 million shares in our first four months as an independent company. We plan to continue to deploy cash flow for dividends and share repurchases in the fourth quarter. Now, let me turn to our outlook, the details of which are in earnings release. Revenue is now expected to be $1.81 billion to $1.86 billion. The increase from our prior projection reflects the need to record more items as cost reimbursement revenue I'd like into then we had previously anticipated with no impact on EBITDA. Our adjusted EBITDA forecast is now $500 million to $510 million. So, the midpoint remains unchanged from our prior outlook. Total depreciation, amortization, stock-based compensation and net interest expense in the aggregate is largely consistent with our prior projection. Adjusted diluted EPS is now forecasted to be $2.62 to $2.68. $0.002 higher at the midpoint and before reflecting our third quarter share repurchases. Our further adjusted 2018 forecast which assumes that our spinoff and the acquisition and integration La Quinta had all been completed on January 1st, is very similar to what we previously provided. With the exception that it now reflects incremental La Quinta cost reimbursement revenues, as well as a tightening of ranges to reflect having only one quarter remaining this year. Our further adjusted outlook calls for revenues of $2.06 billion to $2.11 billion. Adjusted net income of $300 million to $315 million, adjusted EBITDA of $594 million to $605 million. Rooms growth of 11% to 13% including organic growth of 2% to 4% and RevPAR growth of 7% to 8% which works out to approximately 3% excluding our 2018 acquisitions and divestitures. Let me proactively address one of the questions you may have. Since third quarter adjusted EBITDA exceeded the midpoint of guidance by $7 million. Why is full year adjusted EBITDA guidance unchanged? The answer is that a few million dollars of the surplus in Q3 was due to timing favorability between the third and fourth quarters and currency movements have negatively impacted our results by around $4 million. We've been working to offset the currency effects which you can see in our third quarter results. So, in total, we haven't seen anything that significantly changes our view of the year as a whole. Lastly, I want to take the opportunity to highlight two additional points about our business and our industry. First, as I discussed in detail on our last quarterly call an independent hotel brand is likely to be worth more as part of a large brand family like Wyndham than on its own. As evidence of this, we've significantly increased the earnings contributions from our acquisitions. Well, investors may be able to invest in our stock and the stock of an independent brand, a public market investor can't produce the synergies that we can. This in a nutshell is why it can make good sense for us to pursue smart strategic acquisitions. And second, according to the STR data that are now available economy and midscale hotel demand grew about a half point faster than supply in the first 9 months of the year. This is a continuation of a trend we've seen for a while and one reason why, when looking at the lodging cycle, we don't think there's any oversupply issue developing in select service lodging. In conclusion, our quarterly results were solid and above our expectations. Our full year further adjusted EBITDA book is consistent with what we shared with you previously, and we remain highly enthusiastic about finishing 2018 on a strong note and about the opportunities in front of us in 2019. With that, I would like to turn the call back over to Geoff.