Theodore Dosch
Analyst · Cross Research
Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Today's earnings release includes a schedule which reconciles our GAAP financial results with non-GAAP results. We believe the non-GAAP measures we disclosed, which exclude noncash expenses and other items, provide the best representation of our ongoing operational performance. As Bob highlighted, we reported third quarter 2017 earnings per diluted share of $1.11 compared to $1.20 in the prior year quarter. On an adjusted basis, we reported earnings per diluted share of $1.30, a 6% decrease compared with $1.38 in the prior year quarter. As a reminder, each quarter, we exclude intangible amortization and, if applicable, acquisition and integration costs and other expense from our non-GAAP results. Current quarter results exclude intangible amortization and other items, which, combined, had a pretax impact of $9.9 million and an after-tax impact of $6.6 million or $0.19 per diluted share. Prior year quarter results excluded intangible amortization and other items, which, combined, had a pretax impact of $9.9 million and an after-tax impact of $6 million or $0.18 per diluted share. These items are detailed in our press release, financial tables and in the slide presentation that accompanies today's call. All of my following comments this morning, including year-over-year and sequential comparisons, are based on continuing operations only and on an adjusted earnings basis. Turning to sales. Our record quarterly sales of $2 billion increased 3.1% compared to last year, driven by growth in UPS as well as in our EMEA and Emerging Markets regions in NSS and EES. Adjusted for the $19.9 million favorable impact of higher average copper prices and the $11.1 million favorable impact of currency fluctuation, organic sales increased by 1.5% versus last year. As Bob highlighted, the negative impact of multiple hurricanes and the Mexico earthquake negatively impacted sales by an estimated 50 basis points. Excluding this impact, organic sales growth would have been 2%, at the low end of the outlook range we provided for the quarter. Now I will go into more detail on our results. Third quarter gross margin of 19.7% compares with 20.3% in the year-ago quarter. The year-over-year decline was due to customer, product and segment mix. In addition, vendor rebates and inventory provision both negatively impacted gross margin. As we have commented in past quarters, and it's true again in the third quarter, the areas of weakness in U.S. NSS and U.S. EES are our higher-margin businesses. In both EES and UPS, our fastest growth was with lower-margin customers, while in NSS, our fastest growth was the security business. Keep in mind that our lower-margin businesses, which are the UPS segment and our security business, also have the lowest level of operating expense, making them accretive on an operating basis. The adjusted operating profit margin of our UPS business, as an example, improved by 30 basis points as we continue to improve efficiency in this business while we grow the top line. Operating expense of $316.2 million compares to prior year operating expense of $309.4 million. Excluding the non-GAAP operating expense items I outlined earlier, adjusted operating expense of $306.3 million compares to prior year adjusted operating expense of $299.5 million, an increase of 2.3%. Current quarter adjusted operating expense is 15.2% of sales, a 10 basis point improvement versus the prior year quarter and flat compared to the second quarter of 2017. Looking at the fourth quarter. We expect our adjusted operating expense as a percent of sales to improve by approximately 10 basis points year-over-year, as we saw in the current quarter. However, keep in mind, operating expense dollars will increase both due to incremental volume and the impact of the stronger U.S. dollar on our non-U.S. businesses. Current quarter adjusted EBITDA of $102.7 million compares to adjusted EBITDA of $108.2 million in the third quarter of 2016. The resulting adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.1% of sales compares with 5.5% in the prior year period. By segment, NSS adjusted EBITDA of $72.3 million compares to $79.1 million in the prior year period, a decrease of 8.6%. The corresponding adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.9% compares to 7.5% in the prior year period. The change in margin was due to lower gross margin, reflecting higher growth rates in security and lower vendor rebates than in the prior year period. On a sequential basis, adjusted EBITDA increased by $2.5 million or 3.5%, driven by incremental volume. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.9% increased 10 basis points on a sequential basis. EES adjusted EBITDA of $29.7 million or 5.4% of sales compares to the $31.4 million or 5.9% of sales in the third quarter of 2016. The primary cause of lower adjusted EBITDA margin is gross margin pressure caused by customer mix. Versus the second quarter of 2017, adjusted EBITDA compares to $32.8 million or 5.8% of sales. The change versus the second quarter of 2017 reflects lower volume caused by fewer large capital projects. Average copper prices increased $0.73 in the current quarter compared to the prior year. As you know, this 34% impact benefits gross profit dollars but does not impact gross margin percent. The more recent increase in copper prices will have the typical lag before flowing through to our bottom line. Finally, Utility Power Solutions adjusted EBITDA of $24.8 million increased 17.7% versus $21.1 million in the third quarter of 2016, driven by very strong volume growth. The corresponding current quarter adjusted EBITDA margin of 6% of sales compares to 5.7% of sales in the prior year quarter. The strong year-over-year EBITDA margin performance reflects the operating leverage potential of this business and resulted in adjusted EBITDA leverage of 1.6x. As I move down the income statement, interest expense of $18.9 million decreased by $900,000 year-over-year as we continue to use strong cash flow to pay down outstanding debt. The current level of interest expense is a reasonable estimate for quarterly interest expense for the fourth quarter of 2017. Foreign exchange and other income of $300,000 were favorable in the quarter. However, based on current foreign exchange rates, we believe that $1.5 million to $2 million would be a reasonable estimate for quarterly expense going forward. Our third quarter 2017 GAAP effective tax rate of 39.7% compares to 38.4%, and our adjusted tax rate from non-GAAP earnings of 38.8% compares to 38.5%, both versus the prior year quarter. The higher non-GAAP tax rate in the third quarter negatively impacted adjusted EPS by $0.04, which includes the catch-up from the first and second quarters. Changes in tax rate are driven primarily by changes in country mix of earnings. We currently estimate a full year 2017 adjusted tax rate of approximately 37.6%. Our diluted share count is estimated to be $34 million -- excuse me, 34 million shares over the balance of 2017. Looking at the year-over-year EPS. If you exclude the estimated $0.05 impact from the hurricanes and earthquake and the $0.04 impact from a higher tax rate, adjusted EPS would have increased $0.01, which is more in line with our top line growth. We generated $110 million in cash from operations year-to-date. The decrease versus prior year-to-date cash flow is due to working capital investment to support growth in the business. As Bob commented, we continue to have a relentless focus on working capital efficiency and further improved working capital to 18.2% of sales in the quarter, a 40 basis point improvement versus prior year. We invested $30.9 million in capital expenditures year-to-date through the third quarter and currently expect to invest $45 million to $50 million for the full quarter -- for the full year. Finally, we continue to estimate cash flow from operations for the full year to be approximately $200 million to $220 million. Consistent with our capital allocation priorities, we continue to use the strong free cash flow that we generated to reduce debt related to the Power Solutions acquisition. Our third quarter 2017 debt-to-capital ratio improved to 46.6%, a 500 basis point improvement from year-end 2016. As you know, we returned to our target range of 45% to 50% in the first quarter. Our debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio improved to 3.2x compared to 3.5x at year-end 2016. We now expect to reduce our debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio below 3x by early 2018, reflecting the impact of lower second half earnings than previously projected. Our weighted average cost of borrowed capital of 5.4% compares to 4.7% in the prior year quarter. The increase in cost reflects the repayment of lower-cost borrowings. Finally, our liquidity position remains strong, with total available liquidity under revolving lines of credit and secured accounts receivable and inventory facilities of $685.9 million at the end of the quarter. To help with modeling fourth quarter, I will provide our thoughts on hurricane impacts as well as our estimate for the impact of copper and currency on fourth quarter sales. As Bob discussed, recent hurricane and earthquake activity resulted in lost business days in all businesses in the third quarter. We estimate the net sales impact for the quarter was a 50 basis point headwind, including negative impact in NSS and EES and a neutral impact on UPS. While the natural disasters have caused disruption and increased near-term uncertainty, we are optimistic that the rebuilding activity in Florida, Texas, Puerto Rico and other impacted areas will be a benefit to our business in 2018 and possibly longer. Turning to the sales impact of currency. Based on the current value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies, we estimate a fourth quarter benefit of $20 million to $25 million and a full year benefit of $5 million to $10 million on the top line. Based on recent copper prices of approximately $3.10, we estimate a favorable sales impact of $15 million to $20 million for the fourth quarter and $67 million to $72 million for the full year. As a reminder, average copper price was $2.39 in the fourth quarter of 2016 and $2.20 per pound for the full year of 2016. The estimated combined favorable impact of currency and copper on diluted EPS would be $0.06 to $0.08 in the fourth quarter of 2017 and $0.24 to $0.26 per share for the full year. As Bob shared in his remarks, we are estimating fourth quarter 2017 organic growth to be in the 2.5% to 3.5% range, with the fastest growth continuing to come from UPS segment. We now expect full year organic growth to be in the 3% to 3.5% range. Finally, even though UPS will begin to have more difficult comps in the fourth quarter as sales with the new large IOU customer began in the fourth quarter of 2016, we still expect that UPS will continue to deliver the fastest growth of the 3 segments, again, in the fourth quarter. As we move through the fourth quarter, we expect the slow-growth economic environment to persist. While our customers remain optimistic about their businesses and the economy, we continue to experience a lower level of large capital projects in North America in both NSS and EES. Our pipeline activity remains strong, and we are beginning to see an increase in bookings, supporting our optimism that project business will accelerate in Q4 and into 2018. We continue to maintain or gain modest share across our businesses, driven by synergies with our low-voltage products and ongoing organic initiatives, including the global accounts and in security, wireless and professional A/V, where our differentiators enable us to win. We remain focused on driving efficiencies in our cost structure while balancing expense discipline with the necessary investment in our people, systems and supply chain capabilities to support our growing business. We expect these efforts to continue to generate significant free cash flow, supporting a balanced capital allocation strategy that benefits all of our stakeholders. With that, we will now open the call for questions.