Ted Dosch
Analyst · Jeff Kessler from Imperial Capital. Your line is open
Thanks, Bill and good morning everyone. Before we move into the details, I want to remind you that today’s earnings release includes non-GAAP measures, which are reconciled to GAAP measures in the financial tables that accompany our release. We believe the non-GAAP we disclosed, which exclude non-cash expenses and other items provides the best representation of our ongoing operational performance. Each quarter we exclude intangible amortization and if applicable acquisition and integration costs from our non-GAAP results. I will begin with a summary of these expense items. Fourth quarter 2017 results include amortization and impairments of intangible assets and acquisition and integration costs which combined had a $16.2 million pre-tax and an $11.8 million after-tax impact. Additionally, net income includes $35.6 million of tax expense related to the recently passed tax legislation, which I will discuss in broader detail later in my remarks. Combined, the net income impact of these items was $47.4 million or $1.40 per diluted share. Prior year results included amortization of intangible assets and acquisition and integration costs, which combined had a pre-tax impact of $9.8 million and a net income impact of $7.6 million or $0.22 per diluted share. Excluding the impact of the above items, fourth quarter 2017 adjusted earnings per diluted share increased 8% to $1.41 compared to $1.31 in the year ago quarter. All of the following comments this morning, including year-over-year and sequential comparisons are based on continuing operations only and on an adjusted earnings basis. Turning to sales, our record quarterly sales increased 6.3% to $2 billion driven by growth in all segments and all geographies, adjusted for the $16.8 million favorable impact of higher average copper prices and the $22.5 million favorable impact of currency fluctuation, organic sales increased by 4.2% versus last year above our outlook range for the quarter which was 2.5% to 3.5%. Turning to gross margin, our fourth quarter margin of 19.8% compares with 20.4% in the year ago quarter. The year-over-year decline was due primarily to customer product mix combined with the impact of lower vendor rebates and competitive pressures. Similar to recent quarters, our fastest growth was with lower margin customers and in lower margin product. And in addition, this quarter we saw more large direct ship projects. Looking ahead, the current quarter gross margin of 19.8% is a reasonable estimate for gross margin going forward subject to business mix and potential vendor price increases. Operating expense of $318 million compares to prior year operating expense of $306.1 million. Excluding the non-GAAP operating expense items I outlined earlier, adjusted operating expense of $301.8 million compares to prior year adjusted operating expense of $296.3 million, which is an increase of 1.8%, reflecting ongoing expense discipline balance with targeted investments in the business. Current quarter adjusted operating expense was 15% of sales, a 60 basis point improvement versus the prior year quarter and a 20 basis point improvement compared to the third quarter of 2017. Looking to 2018, we expect our adjusted operating expense dollars to increase 3% to 4% on a year-over-year basis driven by increased volume and typical annual inflation we experienced in the business. We have opportunities for operating expense improvement due to initiatives such as our supply chain network design optimization work. Keep in mind those we have discussed on previous calls that this multi-year project will first optimize inventory by location and reduce freight costs with longer term savings in facility events. Current quarter adjusted EBITDA increased 6.3% to $180.1 million. The resulting adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.4% is flat with the prior year period. By segment, NSS adjusted EBITDA of $79.4 million compares to $81.9 million in the prior year period, a decrease of 3%. The corresponding adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.6% compared to 7.9% in the prior year period was the change due primarily to lower volume, the continued deflation in video camera pricing and lower vendor rebates. On a sequential basis adjusted EBITDA increased by $7.1 million, driven by strong operating expense leverage. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.6% increased 70 basis points on a sequential basis. Finally, as you saw in our release in addition to amortization of intangible assets and acquisition and integration costs that we typically exclude current quarter NSS results exclude $5.7 million impairment charge of an intangible asset related to the repositioning of a trade name that we acquired in 2014. This is a result of the realignment of our integrated security business across the previously separate Anixter, Tri-Ed, and CLARK businesses. EES adjusted EBITDA increased 29% to $33 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.7% of sales. The 60 basis point improvement from prior year was driven by higher volume and operating expense leverage partially offset by lower gross margin reflecting competitive pressures of our markets. This strong year-over-year EBITDA margin performance reflects the operating leverage potential of this business and resulted in adjusted EBITDA leverage of 2x. On a sequential basis, EES adjusted EBITDA increased 11.1% which corresponds to a 30 basis point improvement in margin. Fourth quarter average copper price increased $0.71 to $3.10 per pound which was 30% higher than the fourth quarter of 2016. As you know higher copper prices benefit gross profit dollars with no impact on gross margin percent. Copper prices continue to be a tailwind for EES and as in recent quarters there is a lag before the benefit flows through to the bottom line. Finally, Utility Power Solutions’ adjusted EBITDA increased 6.8% to $20.5 million, driven by volume growth. The corresponding adjusted EBITDA margin of 5.4% of sales compares to 5.5% of sales in the prior year quarter reflecting lower gross margin driven by customer and product mix. As Bob highlighted we made significant progress in our UPS businesses here which was reflected in the financial results. Full year adjusted EBITDA increased over 15% to $92 million driving adjusted EBITDA leverage of 1.5x for the full year. Moving down the income statement, interest expense of $19 million was flat year-over-year. The current level is a reasonable estimate for quarterly interest expense for each of the quarters of 2018. Foreign exchange and other income of $100,000 was favorable in the quarter. Based on current foreign exchange rates, we believe that $1.5 million is a reasonable estimate for quarterly expense going forward. Turning to taxes, our fourth quarter U.S. GAAP effective tax rate of 99.4% compares to 37.2% in the fourth quarter of 2016. The rate difference is primarily due to the impact of recent tax legislation. As I highlighted in my earlier comments, the current quarter includes $35.6 million expense related to this recently enacted legislation. This is comprised of a $50 million transition tax on deferred foreign income, which is payable over 8 years reduced by $14.4 million deferred tax benefit resulting from the reduction of our net deferred tax liability due to the tax rate change. On an adjusted basis, our fourth quarter effective tax rate of 38.5% compares to 35.1% in Q4 of 2016. Looking at the full year, our 2017 non-GAAP effective tax rate of 37.8% compares to 37.0% in 2016, with the difference due primarily to country mix of earnings. Finally, as a result of the recent tax reform legislation, we currently estimate a full year 2018 adjusted tax rate in the 20.5% to 29.5% range. Please see the effective tax rate projection slide in our accompanying presentation. Our diluted share count of 34 million shares, which should increase slightly over the course of 2018. We generated $184 million in cash from operations in 2017. The lower level of cash flow was primarily due to working capital investments to support the higher fourth quarter volume. We remain intently focused on working capital efficiency and further improve that efficiency to 18.4% of sales in the quarter, which was up 40 basis points improvement versus prior year. We currently expect to generate cash flow from operations of $180 million to $200 million in 2018. We invested $41.1 million in capital expenditures in 2017, compared to $32.6 million in 2016 and currently expect to invest $60 million to $70 million in CapEx in 2018. Consistent with our capital allocation priorities, we continue to use strong free cash flow we generated to reduce debt related to the Power Solutions acquisition. Our fourth quarter 2017, debt to capital ratio improved to 46.1%, a 550 basis point improvement from year end 2016. As you know, we returned to our target range of 45% to 50% in the first quarter of 2017. Our debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio also improved 3.1x compared to 3.5x at year end 2016. We still expect to reduce our debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio below 3x in the first half of 2018. As we achieve our target capital structure, we expect to resume our historical capital allocation framework. Our priorities remain; first, funding organic growth, secondly, pursuing inorganic opportunities that address specific product or geographic gaps and finally, returning value to shareholders through either share repurchases or dividends. While we have indicated that we believe, we have the right platform in place with no need for another large transformative acquisition, we do have a very active pipeline of smaller opportunities that appear very promising to us. Our weighted average cost of borrowed capital of 5.6% compares to 5.1% in the prior year quarter. The increase in costs reflects the repayment of lower cost borrowings, including the remaining balance of our Canadian term loan. Finally, our liquidity position remained strong with total available liquidity under revolving lines of credit and secured accounts receivable and inventory facilities of $667 million at the end of the quarter. Turning to our outlook for sales growth, as Bob indicated, we are estimating full year organic growth to be in the 2% to 5% range. Based on current trends in the business, we are estimating first quarter 2018 organic growth to be in the 2% to 3% range with the fastest growth coming from the EES segment. To help with your modeling I will provide our estimates for the impact of copper and currency on first quarter and full year 2018 sales. Based on recent copper prices of approximately $3.20 per pound, we estimate a favorable sales impact of $10 million to $15 million for the first quarter and $30 million to $40 million for full year. As a reminder, average copper price was $2.65 per pound in the first quarter of 2017 and $2.80 per pound for the full year 2017. Based on the current value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies, we estimate the first quarter benefit of $10 million to $15 million of sales volume. At current rate, we would have the favorable impact in the first half of the year and potentially a negative impact in the second half of the year resulting in a full year benefit to sales of $10 million to $15 million. To conclude as we move into 2018, the global economic backdrop is favorable with recent tax reform legislation, a potential catalyst for our customers to increase their capital expenditures. As we look at our businesses, our NSS pipeline activity is improving and we are beginning to see an increase in bookings giving us confidence that project business will accelerate as we move through the year. In EES following several years of challenging industrial markets, we are beginning to see an acceleration of project activity. Finally, we are optimistic that solid trends in our utility business will persist. We remain relentlessly focused on driving efficiencies across the organization, constantly balancing expense discipline with investment in our people, systems and supply chain capabilities just for the growing business. We expect these efforts to continue to generate significant free cash flow, supporting a balanced capital allocation strategy that benefits all of our stake holders. With that we will now open the call for questions.