Mike Eastwood
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is in the call
Thank you Steve and thanks to all of you for joining us today. As a reminder I will talk to revenue growth before currency and on an organic basis. Let me start by discussing the revenue performance of our Big 3 segments. Total and organic revenues at constant currency were both up 5% for the quarter. This marks the third consecutive quarter our Big 3 segments have grown 5%. Legal Professional’s revenues increased 5% and organic revenues were also up 5%. Recurring organic revenue growth of 4% was supplemented by 17% increase in transaction revenues related to our government and elite businesses. Westlaw Edge continues to drive over 100 basis points to Legal’s organic growth, while continuing to maintain a healthy premium. Our government business, which is reported within Legal and includes much of our existing risk, fraud and compliance offerings had a strong start to the year with total revenue growth of 12% and organic growth of 8%. In our Corporate segment, total and organic revenues increased 4% despite the loss of $3 million in revenue related to the Affordable Care Act which Steve mentioned earlier. Recurring and Transaction organic revenues were up 4% driven by our Legal and Tax Solutions. And finally, Tax & Accounting’s total revenues grew 5% with organic revenues also up 5% driven by audit product and Latin America businesses. As previously mentioned, we accelerated the release of some of the UltraTax state software from January to December to align with the traditional December release of our U.S. Federal software. Normalizing for this timing, organic revenues for Tax & Accounting were up 8% in Q1. Moving to Reuters News, total and organic revenues increased 2%, primarily due to our professional business which includes Reuters Events. This performance was slightly better than we had anticipated and Global Print total and organic revenues declined 9% in the quarter. This performance was better than we had expected driven by higher third-party revenues with printing services. Despite this higher performance, we still forecast full year revenues to decline between 4% and 7%. On a consolidated basis, first quarter total and organic revenues each increased 3%. Similar to last quarter, we are providing color regarding our expectations for the second quarter. We believe second quarter revenue growth will be the high point for the year given the impact of COVID-19 on our results in the second quarter of last year. Starting with the total TR chart on the top left, we estimate second quarter total and organic revenues will grow between 5.5% and 6.5%. The Big 3 total and organic revenues are forecast to grow 6% to 7% in the second quarter. Growth will benefit from Tax & Accounting’s paid for return revenues that shifted from Q1 to Q2 due to the delay in the tax filing deadline. We forecast second quarter revenue growth between 10% and 15% for Tax & Accounting. In 2020, these revenues were shifted from the second quarter to the third quarter. Moving to Reuters News, we forecast second quarter total and organic revenues to grow between 2% and 3%. This increase is primarily related to Reuters Events. The events team is currently holding all events virtual. We continue to assess when we can resume in-person events based on the local health experts' advice and feedback from our customers. Finally, global print’s second quarter revenues are expected to grow between 1% and 3%, driven by the COVID-10 impact in the prior year and shipment delivery hold releases. Turning to our profitability performance in the first quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the Big 3 segments was $523 million, up 21% from the prior year period and related margin was up 540 basis points. First, legal Professional’s adjusted EBITDA margin in the first quarter grew 510 basis to 41.8%, compared to the prior year period. Second, corporate adjusted EBITDA margin was up 620 basis points to 38.1%. And third, Tax & Accounting’s adjusted EBITDA margin increased 500 basis points and 43.7%. The strong EBITDA margin improvement from each of the three businesses was driven by higher revenue growth and a benefit from 2020 for our savings initiatives. Moving to Reuters News, adjusted EBITDA was $28 million, $9 million more than the prior year period driven by revenue growth, 2020 cost savings initiatives and timing. Global Print’s adjusted EBITDA was $57 million, with a margin of nearly 40%, a decline of about 60 basis points due to the decrease in revenues. So in aggregate, total company adjusted EBITDA was $558 million a 16% increase versus Q1, 2020 due to higher revenues, partially offset by Change Program costs which I will address in a moment. This slide provides more color on the various factors impacting our first quarter 2021 reported adjusted EBITDA margin. They exclude the impact of Change Program cost in order to provide you with an understanding of the underlying trajectory of the adjusted EBITDA margin. As you can see, the first quarter's adjusted EBITDA margin was 35.3%, which represents a 370 basis points improvement over Q1 2020. There were too many factors in 2021 that drove a significant increase over the prior year period. First, the permanent acceleration of UltraTax revenues in Q4 2020 had about a 30 basis point negative impact. And second, the savings from the cost savings initiatives in 2020 provided a benefit to the margin of 490 basis points. On an underlying basis, excluding Change Program cost in the first quarter, the adjusted EBITDA margin was 36%.While this performance is impressive, we continue to recommend you assess our adjusted EBITDA margin on an annual basis. We will continue to increase our investment in the Change Program throughout the year, which will depress margin. We have good visibility into the levers at our disposal to achieve our full year margin target of 30% to 31%. Now, let me turn to our earnings per share, and Change Program cost. Starting with earnings per share, adjusted EPS was $0.58 per share in the first quarter versus $0.48 per share in the prior year period. The increase was mainly driven by higher adjusted EBITDA, partially offset by an increase in depreciation and amortization, higher income taxes and interest expense. Currency had a $0.01 positive impact on adjusted EPS in the quarter. Let me now turn to our free cash flow performance for the quarter. Our reported free cash flow was $239 million versus $35 million in the prior year period, an improvement over $200 million. Consistent with previous quarters, this slide removes the distorting factors impacting our free cash flow. Working from the bottom of the page upwards, the cash outflows from the discontinued operations component of our free cash flow was $22 million more than the prior year period. This was primarily attributable to payments to the UK tax authority related to the operations of our former Refinitiv business. Also in the current quarter, we made $12 million of Change Program payments as compared to Refinitiv related separation cost of $63 million in the prior year period. So, if you adjust for these items, comparable free cash flow from continuing operations was $288 million, $175 million higher than prior year period, primarily due to higher EBITDA and favorable working capital movements. Next, I’d like to provide an update on the financial components of our Change Program. First, in the first quarter, we invested $20 million of the $300 million to $350 million estimated to be incurred in 2021. Second, we have achieved $19 million of annual runrate operating expense savings. As a reminder, we anticipate saving $600 million by 2023, while reinvesting $200 million back into the business for a net savings of $400 million. And third, as I previously shared, our first quarter adjusted EBITDA margin excluding Change Program costs was 36%, compared to our 2023 target of between 38% and 40%. Now, an update on our Change Program cost for the first quarter and the rest of 2021. Let me start by saying none of the annual estimates have changed from what we provided last quarter for the full year. Spend during the first quarter was lower than we expected at $20 million including $11 million of OpEx, plus $9 million of CapEx and was primarily timing-related. We expect Change Program spend to pick up in the second quarter and over the balance of the year. We now anticipate to have about $85 million to $110 million total spend in the first half and $215 million to $240 million in the second half. For the full year, we continue to expect to spend between $300 million and $350 million related to the Change Program. The spend will vary quarter-to-quarter, but we do not expect to change to the full year estimate at this time. And there is no change in the anticipated split of about 60% OpEx and 40% CapEx. We will continue to provide quarterly updates on our Change Program spend as we move through the year. And finally, as I mentioned, we are providing revenue guidance for the second quarter and we are increasing the bottom end of our full year revenue guidance for total TR and the Big 3. We are also reaffirming the balance of our full year 2021 guidance based on the strong start to the year and our confidence in the trajectory of the business and markets. And we also reaffirm our 2022 and 2023 guidance. Let me now turn it back to Frank for questions.