Albert L. Lord
Analyst · Brad Ball with Evercore
Good morning, all and thank you for your interest in Sallie Mae. I'll take a few minutes of your time to discuss our quarterly performance, talk a little bit about future earnings and then share some thoughts with you about our business, the student lending business. With respect to the quarter, I would give us a decent grade for the quarter, certainly a strong B, although I read a half-dozen analyst reports which reminded me that we missed -- that's -- which is actually something I hadn't been thinking about. For the quarter, our origination volume was good. Our credit quality remains high with high FICO scores and cosigner rates, and we got our operating expenses down into a more reasonable range from Q1. The company is focused on sustaining cost control and continues to seek more productivity. As you all noticed, our earnings are reduced again by another so-called one-timer and that was a $50 million premium amortization, acceleration into the second quarter as a consequence of having some $4 billion or 3% of our portfolio consolidated into direct lending. Those -- that number is actually a little higher than we anticipated. That program ended June 30. Somewhat offsetting that premium amortization were $20 million of debt repurchased gains in the quarter. So our second quarter charge-offs were $235 million, that actually beat our full year plan. I personally was mildly disappointed after a very good first quarter and -- which really surprised us. But the second quarter was not the first quarter, and our charge-offs were higher and our delinquencies backed up a little bit. Sallie Mae's provisions, which are outsized at the moment, will come down significantly, but not yet. Progress has been frustratingly slow. There's seasonality in our collections, and therefore Q2 is normally worse than Q1, but ultimately collection success follows the economy, and the economy obviously is backed up. Our net interest line is actually the line that gets most of my attention, it's our top line. Obviously in Sallie Mae's situation, it diminishes as our FFELP loans run off and they run off more quickly than our private loans grow. At some point, you will see growth in that line, but it will be a little bit of time. Our second quarter bore that $50 million charge that I talked about and so Q2's net interest was well down. In addition to that $50 million, it was also down another $27 million relating to FFELP volume going away, as expected. And also as expected, our margins have been tightened by higher cost of funds and a variety of other factors that Jon will cover with you. Fee income at $192 million was roughly flat with 2011, and very much as we expected it. It's holding up nicely considering the FFELP wind down pressures on the businesses. We are committed to growing this income source. Earnings per share, of course, are helped by share repurchases. Our share count's down 4% in the second from first and some 9% below where we were at this time in 2011. Last time we spoke, we told you we would freshen our outlook for 2012. I must say that I commend our current sell side analysts. Their numbers are very close to ours, or ours are close to theirs. I'm going to credit our guys for the transparency of our disclosures, which I -- which obviously helps you make your projections. I think we originally projected around $2 for this year. We're moving that up, as I think you've seen in our press release, to $2.15. I'll also tell you that we'll grow again in 2013 and -- with a caveat or 2. I'm not very uncomfortable with the kinds of numbers that are out there now with respect to 2013. One of the caveats, as I said, I'm not as precise as you guys are and we've got to caveat the economy. We're very pleased with our asset performance and the assets are looking strong, stronger than in quite some time, and that even includes our remaining nontraditional loans. But the real variable, obviously, in our credit costs are the direction of the economy. So I'll take another minute or 2 of your time and just talk a little bit about our business. During the quarter, we conducted it by -- at least by my count, our 40th annual meeting. We were visited by an unusual combination of folks. Some were demonstrators, all were shareholders and we had a combination of demonstrators, shareholders and customers. So that was an interesting meeting. The young persons that visited us were polite. They observed the rules of the meeting. We had a brief opportunity to hear their points of view. At least on a personal level, I'm -- I struggle a little bit philosophically with some of the points of view and am not in total accord. But then again, all of us were once 22 and anxious about starting our careers. I am in accord that recent grads face the toughest job market challenge in a generation and a half. There has been a lot of national attention on student debt. The fact is it's a tough job market, there's no question about that. Young people may take 6 months, a year to find a job. I guess one of the things of -- the good things about being around for 30 or 40 years is that you've seen it before. College graduates will have success. So it's a tough job market in the early '80s. We had 11% unemployment at one point. But those graduates repaid their loans. They were paying interest rates of 8%, 9% on federally subsidized loans against -- versus today's 3.4%. I'll add a few more of my own thoughts here with that. Student loan numbers are big, we've all seen the numbers. The issues tend to be a little less complex and they're sometimes painted. There's certainly responsibility on both parts of the lender and the borrower. Lenders have an obligation to inform borrowers of the risks of borrowing. We have certainly renewed and enhanced our commitment to inform our borrowers over the years. And, certainly, the borrowers' obligation to themselves and to their family to understand those risks. But in the final analysis, they're still student loans. And while we've heard -- we've all heard that it's now a $1 trillion industry, the success or failure delineation is quite simple. And this -- and the answer is graduation. After 40 years, we understand that college graduates default at plus or minus 3%. One would say that the flip side of that, that's 97% success. NIM [ph] graduates default at about 5x -- a 5x worse rate. And those numbers get even worse in the nontraditional sector. Stresses of the recent economic prices have rededicated -- we've rededicated ourselves to default prevention and we were already the leading member of our industry in default prevention. We've reconstructed all of our private loan products, loan products which for years before were designed to match the federal loan to provide customers with convenience. That was a construct that worked pretty well for 35 years, in fact, until the financial crisis. We created a Smart Option loan whose key difference to other loan structures is that it for the most part requires payment while students are in school. Some 60% of our Smart Option loans pay while in school. The other distinction, and in part it's because of the required payment in school, is that the students are aware of their debt at all times before graduation. They don't graduate with a 4-year cumulative surprise of significant debt. Federal loans are owned by taxpayers and require no payment in school. Often interest is not accrued in school, and in certain cases, and in many cases, create negative amortization on student loans and even on parent loans. We've all heard that there are some $120 billion a year being lent in the student loan area. About $10 billion of that is private. If it's private, it is also underwritten. We expect our private loans in the Smart Option portfolio to charge-off at maybe 1% to 2% per year. We expect the federally subsidized loans, and they are subsidized by taxpayers, obviously, to default perhaps into the double digits. We've heard that student loan debt and credit card debt now are approximately the same at $1 trillion. That balance is about the only similarity that I've been able to find. Credit cards finance groceries and gasoline and Home Depot purchases and a variety of other things. Student loans finance a young person's long-term success. The only collateral is human capital and students believes in -- is him or her self. I will just wrap up by saying, I've been talking about this business for at least the last 20 years and rarely do I talk about it without saying, "We love this business and we're very good at it." I'll leave my thoughts there until we get to the Q&A. Jon?