Albert L. Lord
Analyst · Barclays
Thanks, Steve. So good morning to all of you, and thank you for your interest in Sallie Mae. I'm going to try to keep my comments short, talk to you about the quarter's performance a little bit, and I will have a few comments about recent news reports that continue to report on growing student loan defaults. First quarter unfolded generally as we and you projected. We earned $0.55, which includes some earnings from debt gains. We are well on track to meet and we will likely exceed our $2 annual earning expectations. As Sallie Mae evolves, our growing private credit earnings are replacing diminishing self revenues. We are growing earnings in the aggregate. A pleasant surprise in the quarter was not just the direction because the direction was expected, but the pleasant surprise was the pace of our private credit quality improvement. Charge-offs were down. Delinquencies are down. Forbearance was down, and our collections were up, and so we lowered our provision. Not a surprise, but a major factor in the first quarter earnings, was our reduced FFELP margin, and Jon will talk to you about that in some detail. It's a combination of timing and permanent declines. Margin fell all the way to 85 basis points. We think, as a longer-term running rate, the number will be closer to 90 basis points. But it was down and affected our earnings substantially. Our OpEx was too high. Again, most of that was timing. But I think maybe we lost a little discipline after our focus on last year's Q4. Those numbers will go down in subsequent quarters. So we see 2012 playing out very much as expected. Certainly, the credit situation feels better. We'll update guidance in June, but I'll tell you that, at least as of today, our -- the bias is probably up. Let me just talk a little bit about recent headlines, and then turn this over to Jon. This country underwent a significant financial crisis in our very recent past. All of us want the crisis to stay in the past, and I would bet that our listeners remain somewhat twitchy about America's economy. Even after several years of 0 interest rates and aggressive Fed action and stimulus spending, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, the economic direction is far less than certain. So it's not really a surprise that many of us see bubbles around every corner -- financial bubbles around every corner. And it's certainly difficult not to notice and maybe even worry about the recent run-up in student loan debt. There has been $200 billion originated in the last couple of years. I would note that of that $200 billion. Probably less than $20 billion of it was private loans, and something around $6 billion of that $200 billion was Sallie Mae loans. And I am certainly not the last word on this subject, and I confess to being a little bit wide-eyed myself at the $200 billion number. But the fact is that we manage about 20% of those loans, and we do have pretty close insight into how they behave. I can't speak for the other $800 billion of the so-called $1 trillion of student loan debt, but I can tell you based on the performance of our portfolio, we don't see any evidence of anything close to a bubble. You heard what I mentioned earlier, that our $40 billion private loan portfolio is improving as credit quality is improving. Our 90-day past-due loans were down to 4.4% from 7% at their worst. Our $135 billion federally guaranteed portfolio is not underwritten, of course, and so it has higher defaults. Its 90-day past-due rate is about 8.5%, about double the private number. But it's been a number that's held steady over the years, and we don't see any evidence that it's worsening. I'll take a little more of your time and ask you to forgive my economic simplicity. But at least as we see, the bubbles are inflated asset values fueled by too easy credit. And then, bubbles burst, obviously, when asset values fall below the related debt. And certainly, student loan debt has increased and increased substantially. But on average -- on a per-borrower average, it's about $25,000 at graduation. That's a $22,000 to $28,000 range between public and private schools, but on average about $25,000. A more interesting statistic is that it has grown, inflation-adjusted, about 2% -- actually something less than 2% per year since the year 2000. That's approximately 1/2 of the inflation rate at our not-for-profit schools in this country. There are obviously many reasons to go to college, both tangible and intangible. I'll stick to the tangible, and most of us incur indebtedness to invest in our financial futures. And that's why we go to college. The graduate's financial future -- the college graduate's financial future is enhanced by, on the very low end of the surveys we have observed, $650,000; on the high end, something more like $1.5 million. Even on the low end, that represents a return some 25x the average debt investment. It's a good investment with or without present value analysis. I would say today the most tangible and immediate value of an education is to avoid joblessness, both short term and long term. And to me, the numbers speak for themselves, and they are really eye-catching. The 20- to 30-year old college graduate today is unemployed at a rate of about 5%. That same age group without a college education is unemployed at a rate of about 20%, 4x higher. This is not to be Pollyanna-ish. This -- as I said, the statistics stand for themselves, I don't, the company doesn't and I don't think most responsible individuals minimize the risks of overborrowing. It happens too often. We read the newspaper stories every day. I read several of them yesterday in the Wall Street Journal. I will tell you, distraught borrowers email me every day. I get calls at home from distraught borrowers. The stories are painful. Sallie Mae learned a great deal during this recent crisis. Among the things that we have learned is that borrowers and lenders must make responsible financial decisions. And included in those -- in that assessment is sorting out the long-term value of the education. It sounds obvious. It was not always obvious and, apparently, it still is not always obvious. I will leave my remarks there. Thank you for listening, and we will take your questions later. I'm going to turn it over to Jon. Thank you.