Ronald Kruszewski
Analyst · JMP Securities. Please go ahead
Thanks Jim, and good morning, everyone. And thank you for taking the time to listen to our third quarter 2016 results. Yesterday afternoon we released a press release with our third quarter results and this morning we posted a slide deck on our website. So with that, let's start with my opening comments and some of the highlights of the quarter. I'm pleased with our third quarter results as we generated 642 million in GAAP net revenue and 645 million of adjusted non-GAAP net revenue. I'd like to note that we've sold the Sterne Agee independent advisory business at the beginning of the quarter, which generated approximately 25 million of net revenue in the second quarter of this year. Adjusting for this sale, adjusted revenue increased 3% sequentially and 9% from the third quarter of 2015, the increase in sequential revenue was driven by our Global Wealth Management advisory businesses. We continue to benefit from the growth in our balance sheet, which increased to more than 17 billion during the quarter. In addition, our bottom line was positively impacted by our recently implemented cost reduction initiative as adjusted non-compensation expense came in below our guidance for the quarter. Despite the progress we continue to make in our growth initiative, our industry continues to face headwinds from lower trading volumes and subdued issuance of market, the origination markets, if you will, as well as from heightened regulatory oversight. While these conditions can weigh on results from time to time, we remain focused on maximizing shareholder returns over the longer term. Given our market position and our strong and growing balance sheet, I believe that Stifel remains well positioned to capitalize on near term opportunities, as well as long term profitable growth. In terms of our third quarter results, total GAAP net revenue, as I said, was $642 million while GAAP earnings per share available to common was $0.21. Stifel utilizes certain adjusted non-GAAP measures to aid in understanding and analyzing the Company's financial results. I would refer you to our press release under the caption non-GAAP financial measures for a more robust discussion of non-GAAP measures. As such, we believe that our adjusted non-GAAP results in the far right column of this slide is more representative of our ongoing operating business as it excludes the impact this quarter of debt issuance costs, merger-related expenses and litigation. On a non-GAAP basis, we generated $645 million of net revenue and $0.69 of adjusted non-GAAP EPS to common shareholders. I'd also mention that in September, we announced the acquisition of City Securities, which is expected to close in the first quarter of 2017. This modest acquisition is another step in further enhancing our private client and municipal finance business. Before I get into our revenue and segment results, I want to review the reconciliation of our GAAP and non-GAAP results. On Slide 4, we review our expenses for the quarter and the impact of our non-GAAP adjustments. I want to spend some time on the issue as we've conformed how we are reporting our adjustments to conform with the SEC's recently updated guidance on GAAP versus non-GAAP measures. Stifel, as I said in the past, structures its acquisition to maximize retention and path structure. As such, significant amounts of what we consider purchase price is expense to Company's income statement. We project both merger-related expenses, including stock-based retention, contract and lease terminations, severance and legal, professional expenses, as well as additional operating expenses, which we have eliminate over time and are duplicative to Stifel's infrastructure. Historically, we have utilized adjusted non-GAAP measures, which excludes the impact of both merger-related and duplicative operating expenses. The updated SEC guidance discourages the elimination of duplicative operating expenses in our adjusted non-GAAP measure. Consequently, we will no longer include these costs in merger-related expenses. Said another way, while we will still report these duplicative expenses, we will calculate adjusted non-GAAP net income or and EPS excluding these expenses. I would note that the majority of these duplicative expenses were in conjunction with our acquisition of Sterne Agee, primarily the expense of operating Sterne's back-office and infrastructure for what we estimate it would be a year from the date of acquisition. As noted, we've sold the Sterne independent business and the back-office and associated infrastructure expenses at the beginning of this quarter. Therefore, no duplicative merger-related expenses were incurred this quarter. In order to make future comparisons to prior periods for adjusted non-GAAP measures, we revised adjusted non-GAAP EPS for prior periods in our press release. Please note that this does not change any of our analysis regarding our acquisition nor do they change the amount of merger-related expenses. It does change the way we will present our non-GAAP measures in the future. To illustrate, in the second quarter of 2016, we would have reported $0.57 of adjusted non-GAAP EPS and then state that that included approximately $14.7 million of duplicative costs. Last quarter, you recall, that we broke out these duplicative expenses from other merger-related expenses. Again, all these charges were really related to the Sterne Agee business. In the third quarter, we incurred anticipated merger-related charges, as well as litigation charges and debt issuance costs that impacted our GAAP results. GAAP compensation expense of $434 million included nearly $31 million of merger-related expenses, primarily stock-based comp for our Barclays acquisition. Excluding this charge, our adjusted comp ratio was 62.5%, down 30 basis points sequentially and at the lower end of our target range. With only a quarter remaining in 2016, we still believe that our range of 62% to 64% of adjusted comp is appropriate. GAAP non-comp expenses came in at $179.8 million, which included $16 million of acquisition-related charges tied to the final disposition of Sterne Agee as well as a $9 million lease revaluation. In addition, we had $11.7 million of litigation-related charges. Excluding these charges, our non-comp expenses came in at a $152 million, which was below our range of $155 million to $165 million and down 5% sequentially. The lower number was due to the realization of some of the benefits of our recent cost cutting initiatives and obviously the removal of costs tied to the Stern Agee business we've sold. In terms of our expectations for the fourth quarter, we believe non-comp expenses will be between $150 million and $160 million. I would note that these expenses do vary on things like loan loss provisions and legal expenses. But within this range, I'm comfortable with $150 million to $160 million. In the table on the right side of the slide, you can see the reconciliation between our GAAP results and our non-GAAP results. Net revenue was impacted by nearly $4 million on debt issuance costs and acquisition-related charges. As you can see here, our acquisition-related charges accounted for nearly $47 million, primarily relating to the Barclays and Sterne Agee transaction. Lastly, litigation-related matters totaled $11.7 million. I want to say something about the litigation charges as there have been some press reports regarding a potential settlement in one of our legal matters. We do not comment on ongoing litigation, but what we will say is, we did take additional reserves in the quarter related to our previously disclosed legal matters. Turning the page to slide five, we highlight the merger-related charges from our recent large acquisition to the most recent quarter, as well as our estimates through the end of 2017. As I said last quarter, the third quarter is really the last final quarter that our bottom line will be significantly impacted relating to these acquisitions. For the quarter, total deal-related charges were again 47 million. This was above our guidance from last quarter's call, and that was due to a nearly $9 million charge we took related to the termination of a lease that we inherited in the Sterne Agee acquisition. Now looking ahead to the fourth quarter and beyond, we expect that the charges relating to Barclays to decline by almost 25 million in the fourth quarter and we have no further charges tied to Sterne Agee. This will positively benefit our GAAP results and quote the difference with our adjusted non-GAAP results. Also to illustrate the point that our forecast for merger related expenses have been relatively accurate, we've included a comparison of our initial estimate when we did these transactions versus our expense expectation for ballpark Barclays and Sterne. As you can see, we're pretty much right on target with our Barclays estimate. We are about 20 million above our initial estimate for Sterne Agee. The vast majority of this difference is attributable to the lead termination charge that I just discussed and an accounting treatment for a portion of goodwill. So it's pretty clear that we've done what we've said at the time these deals were announced. Moving to our primary revenue lines, I'll start with brokerage revenue. Brokerage revenues totaled 288 million, or 0.5% decrease compared to the third quarter of '15 and a 6.6% decrease compared to the second quarter of '16. Excluding the brokerage revenues generated by the Sterne business, brokerage revenue increased 6.4% year-over-year but declined 1.5% sequentially. Global Wealth Management brokerage revenues were 165.5 million, a 2.3% decrease compared to the third quarter of 2015 and a 3.9% decrease sequentially. But again, excluding the Stern business, Global Wealth Management revenues on the brokerage side for the third quarter increased 8.7% compared to '15 and nearly 4% compared to the second quarter of 2016. Institutional equity brokerage revenues were 51 million, a 14.7% decrease compared to the third quarter of 2015 and a 7.3% decrease compared to the second quarter of 2016. Industry-wide average daily volumes were down 9.2% sequentially and 10% year-over-year. Institutional fixed income brokerage revenues were 71.8 million, an 18.5% increase compared to the third quarter of 2015, but a 11.7% decrease sequentially. I would note that the second quarter of 2016 was a strong quarter for our fixed income. We are very pleased with our year-to-date fixed income results, which are up 33% in 2015, and but I would say that our third quarter results were impacted by slower market volumes as investment grade and high yield average daily volumes declined, 3% year-over-year and 9% sequentially. I would note that we are not a balance sheet driven firm as illustrated by our value at risk measure which, during the quarter, was 4.3 million. Given that much, given our much lower levels of capital that we used to generate revenue versus larger more balance sheet driven firms, we correlate more to trading activity, but I must stand very comfortable with the amount of revenue that we generate in fixed income relative to our risk that we take. Investment banking revenues were $144.8 million, a 21.9% increase compared to the third quarter of 2015 and 8.8% increase sequentially. The growth in the quarter was the result of strong advisory revenues of $86.3 million. That is up 73% from the third quarter of 2015 and 29.4% sequentially. Our improved results were driven, were positively impacted by a large fee from advising Talmer Bancorp and strong results from Eaton Partners. Although the third quarter benefited from large deal closings, we do continue to feel good about our pipeline as it grows at a steady state. Also I would note that the investments that we have made have begun to pay off on this line item. In terms of equity capital raising, revenues were $32.5 million, which was an 11% decrease compared to 15%, 13.6% sequential decrease. While revenues were down during the quarter as the issuance markets continue to recover from depressed levels, we have started to see an uptick in business across the platform and our pipeline continues to build despite a still challenging environment. The revenue from fixed income capital raising was $26 million, which was a 19.8% decrease compared to the third quarter of 15% and 9.7% decrease compared to the second quarter of 2016. That said, we are preparing very strong results in our public finance business as our public finance business has grown to be the Number 1 ranked public finance business in the country in terms of number of transactions. Given that both presidential candidates have pushed for increased infrastructure spending, we believe that issuance in this market could see some tailwind in the future. Moving on, as you all know, our balance sheet has been a significant focus of our growth initiatives, and we continue to see the benefits through increased net interest income. As you can see our Slide 9, we continued to significantly grow our balance sheet during the quarter and we are now relatively close to the $18 billion we targeted roughly a year ago. In fact, we have actually increased our total assets by $7.9 billion in the past four quarters, and we are now just $800 million below the $18 billion threshold we have targeted. You can see that the sizable growth in our balance sheet was accomplished while maintaining strong capital ratio. Our Tier 1 leverage ratio increased sequentially to 11.8% and our risk-based capital rate was 22%. Improvement in the ratios during the quarter was due to earnings growth, as well as the preferred capital we raised during the quarter. You can also see the additional capital has benefited our illustrated capital ratio at $18 billion in assets from what our prior estimates were. The higher ratios give us added flexibility to deploy capital through continued balance sheet growth beyond $18 billion, as well as other means such as share repurchases and other capital deployment options. That being said, we’ll continue to focus on the rate of return we generate when using our excess capital as our primary measure for allocated capital. On the next slide, we illustrate not only the progress we made growing our balance sheet, but the impact it has had on net interest income and net interest margin. Total assets continue to increase, reaching $17.2 billion and our interest earning assets averaged $12.2 billion during the quarter. In fact, interest earning assets are up more than 92% from the third quarter of 2015 due to growth at Stifel Bank. Firm-wide net interest margin was 178 basis points, up 7 basis points sequentially. The improvement in firm-wide NIM was driven by the improvement in Stifel Bank's net interest margin. As you can see in the slide, our Bank NIM is up 5 basis points sequentially to 240 basis points as our funding costs decreased due to the planned reduction of Federal Home Loan Bank loan that were replaced with the positive funding. We highlighted the increased use of FHLB funding as being responsible for a 6 basis point contraction in our Bank's NIM last quarter. While we did recapture the costs associated with the FHLB funding, we did see some modest decline in the yields and assets acquired during the quarter. The results of the increase in our balance sheet size and recovery in NIM is a 14.4% sequential increase and 65% year-over-year increase in net interest income. I would also note that our NIM and our NII were negatively impacted by the impact of our debt issuance costs in the quarter that added $3.4 million to our interest expense. Excluding this charge, our NIM in the third quarter would have been 189 basis points and NII would have been $58.9 million. In terms of share repurchases, we bought back 600,000 shares in the quarter and we have 7.4 million shares remaining on our existing authorization. I also want to mention that our average diluted share count came in about 2 million higher than the consensus number for the quarter as it increased 1.6 million from the second quarter. This was due primarily to the impact from the shares issued in the Barclays transaction and is the result of the charge that we took to our earnings with respect to Barclays. Moving on, I will briefly touch on the results from our two primary segments as I’ve already addressed most of the factors impacting them in earlier slides. So starting with Global Wealth Management, it was a strong quarter in Global Wealth Management. I already talked about revenue increasing despite the loss on the Sterne Agee revenues. On an apples-to-apples basis, Global Wealth Management net revenue increased 6% sequentially. This segment continues to benefit from the growth of our Bank balance sheet and increased productivity from our financial advisers. Brokerage revenue in the private client business was again impacted by the sale of Sterne. Total advisors in this segment were 2,280 at the end of the quarter. Our headcount was down 1% sequentially. Now, I want to spend a little more time on our adviser count given the sequential decline. In the quarter, we recruited 33 advisors with average production above our firm-wide level. We did have, during the quarter, 48 departures for the quarter. 17 of those departures transitioned to retirement. So, the clients remain with our Company. 13 departed due to a lack of production, and the remaining 18 advisors that left, a significant number of them have productivity levels blow the firm's average. So while we are focused on growing our ranks through recruiting and acquisition, we are also focused on improving productivity. Total client assets reached 234.5 billion, up 4% sequentially. This excludes 11.5 billion of assets from Sterne Agee. Fee-based assets totaled 67.9 billion, up 4% sequentially and 22% year-over-year. The higher revenue in the quarter and the sales of the Sterne independent contractor business had a positive impact on our comp ratio for this segment, which declined to 55.2% in the quarter. Our non-comp ratio was 16.8%, altogether, resulting in pre-tax margin of 28%. On the next slide, we look at the results for Stifel Bank & Trust, which benefited from growth in asset as we continue to conservatively lever our balance sheet. Total bank assets were 11.2 billion. Bank loan of 5.1 billion increased 19% sequentially and nearly doubled up 104% year-over-year primarily to 600 million growth in our residential mortgage portfolio. Investment securities totaled 5.4 billion, investment portfolio growth in the quarter was consistent with our long term strategy of emphasizing high credit quality short duration issues that provide attractive risk-adjusted returns. As such, the portfolio's average yield was 2.23%; the duration was 2.13 years. The provision expense in the quarter increased to 3.6 million, up from 1.8 million in the prior quarter, but down from 3.7 million in 2015. The ratio of loan loss allowance to total loans declined sequentially due to the growth in our residential mortgage portfolio, which carries lower reserves as a percentage of loan. Overall, our credit metrics remain strong as NPL and non-performing loans and non-performing asset ratios in the quarter were 0.54% and 0.28%, respectively. Moving to the next slide. Our Institutional Group generated 259 million of net revenue. Advisory revenues were 86 million, which were up 29% sequentially and 74% year-over-year. This also followed strong second quarter results. Our second quarter advisory revenues, as I said, were helped by our Talmer Bancorp as well. Although advisory revenues can be lumpy from quarter-to-quarter, we continue to see opportunities to grow our existing verticals and add new verticals by recruiting senior-level talent. During the quarter, we added an energy team, a diversified financials team, as well as three tech bankers; and we also had a significant restructuring banker hire. Despite the strength of our advisory quarter, market conditions remain challenging for others, for other areas in this business. Although the S&P 500 was up 3% in the quarter, equities and fixed income to average daily volume declined. Given our Institutional business is primarily flow driven, these market conditions were headwind for us in the quarter. Our Institutional equities brokerage revenues declined 7%. And I've already discussed our fixed income brokerage revenue. Looking at equity underwriting revenue, it was $21 million and this declined 23% sequentially. IPO activity was relatively flat both sequentially and year-over-year in terms of the number of US new issues, but dollar amount rates increased slightly. Despite the sequential decline in equity underwriting revenues, we have started to see an uptick in business across the platform showing the benefits of broad industry coverage as we have equity new issue activity in consumer, energy, [fed] and across really all of our verticals. While it remains difficult to predict the near-term new issue windows, our pipeline continues to build with quality issues preparing to access the market. The next slide shows a summary financials for our Institutional Group. Before I open it to Q&A, I want to talk a little bit about where we are with the fiduciary role and give an update on our interest rate sensitivity. With respect to the Department of Labor's new fiduciary rule, we continue to implement and refine our business model related to retirement accounts. On one end of the spectrum, several firms have decided to eliminate commission based accounts entirely, while others have indicated a business model which will more significantly use the best interest contract exemption or as it's referred to the BIC. At Stifel, we are taking a balanced approach which preserves choice while recognizing the new fiduciary requirements. Over the last several months, we have communicated plans for our platform and timetable to all of our advisors. With respect to Choice, we have supplemented our advisory platforms with new capabilities programmed, and importantly have reduced minimums. Where it makes sense, we will utilize the best when we believe this option is more weighted to larger accounts. We are mindful of the costs relating to adopting accounts to the new standard of care, as well as the ongoing costs related to new systems policies, procedures and controls. We're now prepared to have an estimate of these costs at this point, but we will report as we get further into the process. This rule continues to evolve and we continue to evolve with it. I will say we share the industry's concern for the need to standardize costs and expenses across the providers of investment products. And finally, while much of the industry is raising costs and pushing out smaller accounts, we have lowered many of our minimums and welcome the opportunity to provide early savers with professional advice. With investor attention once again focused on a potential fed reserve or a hike in short term rates, we wanted to give some updated thoughts on our rate sensitivity. We have previously guided to $66 million of incremental pre-tax income from the first 100 basis point increase in the fed fund rate. We now believe that the next 100 basis point increase should generate pre-tax income of $70 million to $80 million annually. In terms of the impact of a 25 basis point increase, at this point, we think that we would capture roughly a quarter of our annual sensitivity, but this is dependent on a number of market factors including but not limited to the shape of the yield curve and obviously the composition of our balance sheet. A little bit on the next slide gives additional color on rate sensitivity. I actually don’t think that it does. So, to sum up, we believe we had another solid quarter in a relatively challenging environment. We believe our business has a scale to show meaningful improvement as markets improve. We have successfully grown our balance sheet to just below our targeted level and continue to generate significant excess capital. Our costs cutting initiative and the investments we’ve made in our institutional business are starting to show results. And lastly, we feel that our wealth management business is well positioned to navigate through the new Department of Labor rule. So with that, let’s open the lines to questions.