Ron Kruszewski
Analyst · Nomura Instinet. Your line is open
Thanks Jim, and good morning to everyone. And thank you for taking the time to listen to our fourth quarter and full year 2016 results. This morning we issued a press release with our fourth quarter and full year results and posted a slide deck on our website. So with that, let me start with my opening comment. I’m very happy to announce we posted our 21st consecutive year of record net revenues, despite what was a challenging operating environment for the vast majority of the year. The business we’ve built over the past 20 years continues to benefit from the diversity of our revenue streams and is well positioned if the post-election market optimism continues. Our results underscore this diversity as the investments we made in 2015 helped drive substantial growth in net interest income, asset management and service fees, fixed income brokerage and trading, and advisory revenue. These more than offset weaker institutional commissions and underwriting revenue. The improved market environment is a solid backdrop for continued organic revenue growth in 2017 and we will continue look to deploy our excess capital in ways that generate the best returns. However, as we continue to grow our top line, we will put increased emphasis on improving operating leverage through expense efficiencies. In 2016, we illustrated our commitment to meeting our expense expectations as our comp and non-comp expenses consistently fell within our guidance. We have instituted a firm-wide cost reduction initiative that I expect will continue to generate positive results that will ultimately result in improved operating margins. Lastly, I’d note that the vast majority of our non-GAAP deal related charges are behind us and we have consistently stated over the past year, we expect the difference between GAAP and non-GAAP results in 2017 will be materially less than what we reported in 2016. In terms of our full year results as stated GAAP net revenue was a record $2.6 billion and GAAP EPS available to common shareholders was a $1. In 2016 we not only generated record firm-wide net revenue, but we also recorded record net revenue in both Global Wealth Management and our Institutional segment. Additionally, our Global Wealth Management segment recorded record pre-tax operating income. Our corporate highlights include a nearly $6 billion increase in our balance sheet, issuance of $150 million of Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, the issuance of $200 million of Senior Notes to refinance the $150 million of existing Senior Notes, the acquisition of City Securities, the successful integration of ISM and Eaton Partners, and finally we purchased 3.4 million shares with an average price of $33.22. Looking at our fourth quarter results, as you can see from the table on the next slide, GAAP net revenue was $661 million like, while GAAP EPS available to common was $0.31. Our fourth quarter GAAP results were impacted by a few items. First, we had $14 million in anticipated merger charges primarily related to our Barclays acquisition. Our income tax provision as previously disclosed was negatively impacted by $8.9 million due to the non-deductible of the settlement with the SEC. And lastly, we increased our legal reserve by $20 million in the quarter. Excluding these items our adjusted non-GAAP EPS was $0.68. Lastly, we surpassed our target of $18 billion in assets on our balance sheet, reaching $19.1 billion at the end of the year. Moving on to our primary revenue lines, I’ll start with brokerage revenue. Brokerage revenues were $290 million, which was roughly similar to the sequential and year ago quarter. Excluding the brokerage revenues generated by the Sterne business that was sold on July 1, 2016, brokerage revenue increased 4% year-over-year. Global Wealth Management brokerage revenues were $160.5 million, which was down sequentially. Looking, but again, excluding the aforementioned revenues from the Sterne business, the global wealth brokerage revenues for the fourth quarter of 2016 increased 6% compared to the fourth quarter of 2015. Institutional brokerage revenues were up both sequentially and year-to-date with increases in equity brokerage offset by declines in fixed income. Institutional equity brokerage revenues were $64 million, up 17% year-over-year and 25% sequentially. We are happy with these results as industry-wide daily volumes were up only 7% sequentially in flat year-over-year. Our equity business was where we experienced the most significant impact to Institutional brokerage revenue. Clearly the market volumes and activity levels, post-election drove these results. Fixed income brokerage revenues were $66 million, declining both sequentially from 2015 fourth quarter. The revenue declines were the result of higher trading losses relating to our taxable and muni inventories following the November election, as our inventories were negatively impacted primarily due to higher rates, the expectation of higher rate in the future, and possible changes regarding tax policy. In addition to the trading losses a modest sequential decline in traits average daily volume for investment grade security also impacted our revenues. Investment banking revenues were $135 million as of strong pickup in equity capital raising was offset by lower advisory revenue on a sequential basis. Total equity capital raising revenue totaled $48 million, up nearly 20% year-over-year and nearly 50% sequentially. Most of the pick up in that segment occurred after the November election and was driven by increased activity in the financials vertical which is conducted via our KBW subsidiary. The strength of the KBW franchise was illustrated during the quarter as the firm was bookrunner on 7 of 18 publicly announced bank operated from November 8 to the end of the quarter. No other firm was bookrunner on more than three bank offerings during this time period. Fixed income capital raising had revenue of $30 million, up double digits sequentially. Our results were driven by our public finance business that ranked number one in the country, in the number of negotiated in K12 transactions, and was the leading underwriter of development and housing finance. The recent closing of City Securities acquisition strengthened this platform. The future outlook for public finance looks positive, given the new administration’s infrastructure plan, despite potential headwinds from changes in tax policy and higher rates. Advisory revenue was $56 million in the quarter and the volatility of this revenue stream is illustrated by the 72% year-over-year increase in advisory revenue contrasted by the 35% sequential decline. We had an outsized fee on a single transaction in the prior quarter that accounted for much of the decline. Additionally some transactions that may have closed in 2016 were delayed following the election due to the prospect for technology changes in 2017. The next few slides will touch on the quarterly results from our two primary segments as well as the growth we experienced year-on-year. So starting with Global Wealth Management fourth quarter revenue growth was driven primarily by the growth in our bank asset. This more than offset weaker brokerage revenues during the quarter. As I’ve already commented on the decline in the private client broker revenue, I will move on to the segments net interest and expense ratios. Net interest income continue to drive the segments revenue growth increasing 23% sequentially and 87% year-over-year, as the average earning assets of the bank grows approximately $3.4 billion sequentially. Total advisors were 2,282 at the end of the quarter essentially flat with prior quarter levels. The net increase in advisors was relatively modest as new hires were offset by retirements. Total client assets reached nearly $237 billion, growth at fee-based asset which reached $70 billion continued to outpace total client asset growth. The higher revenue in the quarter as a result of our bank growth had a positive impact on our comp ratio in this segment, which declined to 52.9% in the quarter. Non-comp ratio was 17%, up 10 basis sequentially, and most of that was – the non-comp was due to growth in our bank. The decline in the comp ratio resulted in improved pre-tax margin of 30% for the segment. For the full year total net revenue increased 14% to $1.56 billion which was a record. Growth was driven by nearly $5.6 billion increase in the bank balance sheet and an increase in fee-based assets as well as the additions of Barclays and Sterne Agee. And additionally pre-tax income increased 28% to a record $430 million. On the next slide we look at the result of Stifel Bank and Trust which is part of our Global Wealth Management segment. Stifel Bank results continue to benefit from growth in assets as we reached and surpassed our target asset level during the quarter. Total bank assets reached $13 billion up nearly 80% from the end of 2015. Bank loans increased – bank loans which totaled $6 billion increased 13% sequentially and 78% since the end of 2015. The bank was able to growth both consumer and commercial loan portfolios during the fourth quarter and our year-over-year growth was primarily seen within our mortgage loan portfolio. Investment securities was $6 billion increased nearly 80% since the end of last year. The investment portfolio’s growth in the quarter was consistent with our long-term strategy of empathizing high credit quality, short duration issues that provide attractive risk adjusted return. As such, the portfolio of average yield was 248 basis points and the duration was 2.16 years. The provision for loan loss expense in the quarter increased to $6 million, up from $3.6 million in the prior quarter due to loan growth. The increase in the provision impacted our consolidated non-comp operating expenses which resulted in the coming end at the high end of our range for consolidated non-com OpEx. Overall, our credit metrics remain strong as the non-performing asset ratio in the quarter was 21 basis points, down sequentially from 25 basis points in the third quarter of 2016. We’ve had some questions about the net interest margin in the bank which I will address in a moment. Moving on to the next slide, quarterly Institutional net revenue was $253 million, down 2%, but total net revenue for the full year increased 4% to a record $1 billion. Growth was driven by the addition of Sterne Agee fixed income as well as more than 33% increase in advisory revenue, which was helped by our acquisition of Eaton Partners. Additionally, pre-tax income increased by 16% to $164 million as our comp ratio and non-comp declined by a 110 basis points and 50 basis points respectively. I’ve already talked about these revenue line items earlier, but I’ll touch on a few incremental points. Equity underwriting revenue in this segment was $40 million, nearly doubled sequentially as overall industry-wide activity in the quarter was the strongest of any quarter in 2016. We expect a favorable market backdrop or equity issue in 2017 in many sectors, but for us financial, healthcare and technology are notable. While still early in the year, Stifel has been active so far and our pipeline remains strong. However, I would caution that it is very early in the year and really none of the new administrations proposed policies which is driving market optimism, has yet to be implemented. To the extent these policies are delayed or appear unlikely to be implemented, the issuance markets could be negatively impacted versus current expectations. Despite a sequential quarterly decline in the advisory revenue, we are pleased with the full year of advisory, were revenues up $257 million were up 33% from 2015. Our current pipeline heading into 2017 looks strong particularly within our financial vertical. We believe higher stock valuations will drive increased M&A activity. In terms of the outlook for the first quarter which is typically slower due to seasonality, we expect that some of the transactions that have been delayed could partially offset some of the sequential slowdown typical in the first quarter of most of our years. Institutional equity brokerage revenues surged in the quarter due to the post-election rally. While we remain optimistic that an improved economic environment will positively impact activity levels in 2017, I would note that so far in the first quarter overall trading activity has moderated from fourth quarter levels. Our quarterly Institutional fixed income revenue was $66 million was down 8% sequentially and 11% compared to the fourth quarter of 2015 which was a very strong quarter I would know. As I already noted, the primary driver declines were due to losses on our inventory, due to an increase in rate, and policy changes which impacted our holdings of municipal securities. Moving on to our balance sheet, we have reached and surpassed the target level of $18 billion of assets this quarter and the growth in our net interest income has reflected this accelerated growth. As you can see on Slide 10, we finished the quarter at $19.1 billion in asset above the initial target of $18 billion we have discussed since late 2015. Overall we have doubled our total assets since the third quarter of 2015 from $9.8 billion, while maintaining targeted leverage and risk weighted capital ratios. As we have said in the past, our asset growth will not continue at its recent pace. Going forward we believe that we can continue to grow the balance sheet at a rate that is in line with the amount of incremental capital generated at the bank, while maintaining our consolidated target capital ratios of 10% leverage and 20% risk-weighed. This should roughly acquit to incremental asset growth of approximately $2 billion. At the end of the year, our capital ratios were 10.2% for Tier 1 leverage and 20.3% for Tier 1 risk-based capital, which was consistent with our asset growth. Said another way, looking forward with our capital ratios near our targets, our balance sheet growth will be driven by retained earnings, and as we’ve always said, we will continue to deploy our excess capital on a risk adjusted returns. On the next slide we illustrate not only the progress we’ve made in growing our balance sheet, but the impact that it had, a net interest income and net interest margin. Of our $19.1 billion in assets, our total interest earning assets averaged $15.6 billion during the quarter. Interest earnings assets are up more than 111% from the end of 2015. As I mentioned a moment ago, some of the commentary we’ve heard this morning has focused on the compression of our net interest margin from the third quarter. Net interest margin of the bank declined to 225 basis points from 240 basis points in the prior quarter, let me address that. This decline was the result of increased levels of cash on our balance sheet at the beginning of the quarter due to money market reform that caused us to sweep more cash to Stifel Bank. As we deployed the cash in the higher interest earning assets during the quarter, the bank NIM increased and reached 252 basis points in December. We believe that this is more representative of our net interest margin perspective – prospective all the way. Despite the decline in net interest margin for the quarter, the firm-wide net interest margin increased 10 basis points to 191 basis points. This was primarily due to lower interest expenses, we retired our baby bonds in July, actually refinanced on the July with lower cost debt. As a result of the increase in our balance sheet improvement in firm-wide net interest margin, net interest income increased 65% year-over-year. Looking at the first quarter of 2017, we expect that net interest income will benefit from the rebound in net interest margin in December, further increases in interest earning asset and a full quarter impact of the December increase in the fed funds rate. We did not repurchase any shares in the fourth quarter and we continue to have our existing authorization of 7.4 million shares. Next we’ll move on to the reconciliation of our GAAP and non-GAAP results. On Slide 13 we review these expensive and the impact. In the fourth quarter GAAP results were impacted by the following; as I said, anticipated merger related charges of approximately $14.2 million, litigation related expenses of approximately $20 million associated with previously disclosed legal matters, and the previously disclosed settlement with the SEC which impacted the company’s provision for income taxes by approximately $8.9 million due to the non-detectability of the settlement. Taken together, these items reduced net income available to common shareholders by $29.6 million, or $0.37 per common diluted share. I would also highlight that our acquisition charge, litigation reserves are expected to decline in 2017. To summarize, total non-GAAP pre-tax charges in the quarter were just under $35 million down from $47 million in the prior quarter. Now looking ahead to 2017, we estimate that non-GAAP merger related charge will decline materially to approximately $30 million. We estimate that by 2018 buying further acquisitions the non-GAAP related charges will be eliminated. Also, I want to give a little more detail on our legal expenses and reserves. We incorporate on going legal costs, on going legal cost in our non-comp guidance then in the fourth quarter we had elevated levels of litigation due to our settlement with the SEC. This was one of three legal matters that we have disclosed in Qs and 10-Ks over the past two years. Each of those three cases related to issues that occurred prior to 2009. In the fourth quarter we increased our legal reserves by $20 million for the remaining legal items highlighted in our recent public filings. Given the reserve increase, I’m sure you’re all looking for additional details in our remaining legal matters, but as the corporate policy we don’t comment on ongoing litigation. So I really don’t have any more to say, but I will certainly update you when we can. Now let me give a brief update on the DOL and interest rate sensitivity. Regarding the Department of Labor, we are closely watching developments in Washington, D.C. and believe the rule would be delayed so that it could be reviewed by the new administration. If the rule is not delayed while disruptive we have plans to meet its requirements. But again, I believe the rule will be delayed. Should the rule go back out for comments which I anticipate, we are interested in advancing our best interest standard that informs client selection of service levels and levels of care. We believe that an approach of this or embraces full transparency and will preserve investor choice primarily relating to the 40 Act and the 34 Act. In terms of rate sensitivity we updated our guidance last quarter and stated that the next 100 basis point increase would result in $70 million to $80 of incremental pre-tax income annually. This projection as I always said was based on a parallel shift in the yield curve of 40% to 60% benefits for clients and a relatively similar impact for each 25 basis point increase over a 100 basis point move. Given the timing of the fed announcement we did not generate material benefits from the December rate increase. So we would expect to generate the vast majority of the benefits from December’s rate hike in the first quarter. Additionally, as some of our peers have highlighted in their earnings announcements, we have yet to see an increase in the competitive environment for yield on client deposits. As such, we would expect to retain the vast majority of sight from the recent fed hike which should equate to an incremental $5 million of pre-tax income versus our prior estimate for the quarter. However, if market for deposit yields increases, we would see benefits more in line with our regional guidance. Looking forward to 2017, the operating environment appears to be far more optimistic than we’ve seen in recent years. The November election had increased investor hopes that businesses will see lower taxes, pure regulations and increased economic growth which at least the market hopes will translate into stronger top and bottom line results and ultimately provide the foundation for strong market performance. We’ve already seen the impact of these expectations on the price of our own stock as shares of Stifel have increased about 30% since November 8; although we would expect to benefit meaningfully from this type of market environment and importantly a reduction in corporate tax rates. There’s a lot that needs to be done in Washington to get us there. That said we feel good about where we are and our ability to grow our top line. While we’ll continue to look at acquisition opportunity we believe that our current business is now off the scale that our continued focus on cost control and operating efficiency should result in incremental bottom line growth in 2017. While we don’t give revenue guidance, I do want to touch on a couple of items that will start the New Year. In terms of our balance sheet growth, as I said earlier, would expect assets to grow by roughly $2 billion in 2017 as the bank generates capital. In terms of investment banking, we have a strong advisor year in 2016 that was partially offset by weaker issuance markets. Our pipeline remains strong, but we are currently optimistic that of the current market conditions remain in play that our equity underwriting business would be the biggest beneficiary, particularly in light of how weak the first half of 2016 proved to be. In terms of expense, we continue to believe that there is increase in efficiencies within our business that we can capitalize back. In terms of our comp ratio guidance we did expect that 2017 the range will be within 60.5% to 62.5%. This is down from last year’s guidance of 62% to 64% as we’ve experienced strong growth in revenue from net interest income and fee-based businesses that carry lower comp ratios. But we also look to improve efficiencies within our businesses. For non-comp expenses, we will continue to give quarterly guidance as we continue the cost reduction initiatives that we’ve embarked on. However, we will now exclude the impact of loan loss provisions and this is more reflective of the growth in loans in unpredictable terms of how that bank grows. So for the first quarter of 2017, we would expect non-comp expenses to be in the $151 million to $158 million range excluding loan loss provisions that occur when we have loan growth in the bank. Lastly, I want to briefly comment on our diluted share count. In the quarter we came in above Street expectations primarily due to the increase in shares that were tied to the non-cash stock comp charge for Barclays that we took in the third quarter and the impact of the increase in our share price. To help you with our model – your modeling, the fully diluted share count at the end of 2016 was just under $80 million and going forward we expect our fully diluted share count at the end of 2017 to be around $80.5 million borrowing any share repurchases or issuances. So, as I open it up for questions let me say we feel good about the progress we made in 2016 given the potential from more business friendly environment. In 2017 I believe our company is well positioned for further top and bottom line growth. So with that, operator, can we open up for questions?