Ronald Kruszewski
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Your line is open
Thanks. Sit right next to me, I assure you as well. Thanks, Jim, and good afternoon, everyone – have some water. Thank you, everyone, and thank you for taking time to listen to our second quarter 2016 results. Earlier this afternoon we released our press release with our second quarter results and posted a slide deck on our website. First, I'll run through our financial results for the quarter, as well as the continued progress we made in growing our balance sheet. I will then discuss some of the key questions impacting our business such as non-core expense runoff, the Department of Labor Rule, our recent asset sale and capital rate before opening up the call to questions. So with that, let's start off with my opening comments and some of the highlights for the quarter. We're pleased with the results in the second quarter as we posted a second consecutive quarter of record revenue and increased adjusted EPS by 21% sequentially despite unless an ideal market environment. The diversity of our business model was again illustrated by a rebound in investment banking activity and growth in our bank which more than offset the sequential decline in brokerage revenue from the first quarter's record level. Although the market environment remains challenged at macro level advanced in the first half of 2016 led spikes and volatility that weighed on investor and corporate activity, we believe that Stifel remains well positioned to capitalize as markets improve. In the past month we have pulled off the lower margin legacy businesses from the Sterne Agee acquisition, raised preferred equity and refinanced higher cost debt. These actions have further strengthened our already strong balance sheet to facilitate our continuous efforts to optimize our capital base and increase shareholder returns. In terms of the results from the second quarter, total net revenue for the quarter was a record 652 million, up 5% sequentially and 9% year-over-year. Much of the growth was driven by a rebound in the institutional group that generated revenue of 261 million, up 8% sequentially. The higher institutional revenues were the results of a 43% sequential rebound in advisory revenue and a 25% sequential pickup and capital raising which more than offset 7% decline in institutional brokerage revenue. Additionally, our Global Wealth Management business posted another record revenue quarter of 386 million, up 2% sequentially and 12% year-over-year. Brokerage revenues slowed following a strong first quarter but revenue growth benefited from balance sheet growth at the bank and improved syndicate activity. More specifically, revenue in Stifel Bank & Trust was up 5% sequentially and 36% over 2015 due to both higher short-term rates and balance sheet growth. Assets as a holding company level increased to $15.2 billion at the end of the quarter and are up 50% from the same period a year ago. So overall revenues are up 9%, but EPS on a core basis declined 3% -- these are on a year-over-year – to $0.69. The decline from the same period a year ago was due to headwinds that included weaker commissions, lower underwriting revenue, a higher comp ratio and increased bad debt expense, again, all as compared to the second quarter of 2015. Since the end of the first quarter, we have repurchased 600,000 shares of stock. In May, we completed the acquisition of ISM. In June, we announced the sale of the legacy correspondent clearing, an independent business of Sterne, Agee. In July, we raised $150 million in preferred equity, issued $200 million of our 4.25 senior notes and redeemed $115 million of the 5.375 baby bonds. So we've been pretty busy. So let me get a little more granular and go through our revenue and segment results. We increased net revenues again sequentially and annually. The improved sequential results were the results of improved investment banking revenue. Improvement in this line item augmented continued improvement in Asset Management revenue and net interest income, which both increased sequentially and annually. Both Global Wealth Management and Institutional benefited from improved investment banking results and our recent acquisitions as well as our increased balance sheet. Total investment banking revenues of $133 million increased 32% sequentially and offset a sequential decline in brokerage revenue from the record levels that we achieved in the first quarter. We continue to generate strong fixed income brokerage result, despite a pullback from the first quarter level. Turning to the next slide. Our Global Wealth Management segment continues to benefit from our recent acquisitions as well as growth in the balance sheet and revenue of $386 million. These growth initiatives have helped maintain a relatively flat brokerage and asset management revenues sequentially but resulted in year-over-year growth of 8 and 21%, respectively. Net interest income was the largest driver of growth, both sequentially and year-over-year, as we added $1.1 billion of assets to the bank's balance sheet during the quarter. Total advisors were 2,838 at the end of the quarter. That would also include 540 independent advisors that were included in the sale of the legacy Sterne Agee business. Total client assets reached almost $238 billion, but this includes again about 11.5 billion of assets that are included in the Sterne Agee sale. Fee based assets totaled 65.6 billion, up 3% sequentially and 13% year-over-year. There is some geography things some of the analysts may note and that we re-classed some of these assets into fee-based assets, and that something that we can talk about in questions and answers if there's any questions on that. The increased revenue and sequential declines in both comp and non-comp expenses resulted in the global wealth pre-tax operating margin of 27.2% which is up 250 basis points. On the next slide we look at the results of Stifel Bank & Trust which benefited from both an asset as we continue to conservatively lever our balance sheet. Total bagged assets are now 9.4 billion, increased 14% sequentially, to almost double from one year ago. Bank loan of 4.6 billion increased 23% sequentially primarily due to growth in residential mortgage loans. Investment securities total 4.6 billion and highlights that despite the flattening of the yield curve in the quarter we've been able to grow this portfolio with reasonable yield, up more than 2%, duration of approximately two years and certainly solid credit quality. Even in the current rate environment we continue to be able to grow the bank by investing in loans for security that generate a 15% return on equity inclusive of our interest rate hedges. Consequently, the current market environment is not impacting our strategy. But NIM at the bank declined 12 basis points sequentially to 236 basis points. The decline of the NIM is attributable to an increased investment, security-based loans and mortgage loans as well as increased Agency MBS holdings. The loans carry lower yields and in terms of the Agency MBS portfolio we experienced faster prepayment speed that led to increased amortization expense which of course impacts our NIM. Additionally, the nim was negatively impacted in many ways we had rapid asset growth and as a result we funded it with an increased level of federal home loan bank deposits, which we did repay at the end of the quarter with our sweep deposits. But this increase by a funding to a federal home loan bank funding accounted for about six basis points in the decline of our NIM. Again, those have been substantially repaid by core deposits. The provision expense in the quarter declined to 1.8 million from 4.4 million in the prior quarter, but it's up 1.4 million compared to 2015. Really the additional reserve is primarily due to loan growth and that's to be expected as we grow the balance sheet. The percentage of reserves to loan declined in the quarter, it was really driven by residential mortgage growth security-based loan, they carry lower provisions for that asset class. Net NPL and NPA ratios in the quarter were 80 basis points from 37 basis points respectively up from 63 and 28 basis points in the first quarter. The increase was due to a single loan that was placed in non-accrual status. Moving to the next slide. Our institutional group generated $261 million net revenue up 8% sequentially, again, due to stronger investment banking revenue, more specifically due to strong advisory and equity underwriting revenue. They each increased 43% versus the first quarter. Not saying much as it relates to the first quarter, it was a difficult quarter but we did as the industry – sequential improvement in both advisory and equity underwriting. The stronger investment banking revenues help to more than offset sequential decline in brokerage revenue from the record level we achieved in the first quarter of 2016. The improved revenues in the quarter and lower comp ratio drove off 410 basis points sequential improvement in the segment pre-tax margin which came in at 16.2%. On slide eight, we look more closely at some of the components of institutional revenue. Our business benefited from less market volatility in the second quarter than what we experienced in the first quarter, except really at the end of the quarter we did see volatility with related to the Brexit vote. The increased business benefited advisory or stability, if you will, benefited advisory and the underwriting business and more than offset less active trading markets. As both equity and corporate bond buyouts decline, our quarterly fixed income brokerage revenue was $81 million for the quarter and was down 3% sequentially but up to 50% year-over-year due primarily to our stern acquisition. Our net revenue declined modestly. Sequentially our fixed income business continues to benefit from our recent acquisitions and represented 60% of our institutional brokerage revenues in the second quarter of 2016. We continue to increase market share in both investment-grade and high-yield, while also gaining traction in our new emerging market business. Institutional equities revenue up $55 million declined 12% versus the strong first quarter of 2016 and was relatively in line with the 15% decline in industry wide average daily volume during the quarter. As I said in the past, the diversity of Stifel business model is a tremendous asset and the rebound in our investment banking business is an illustration of this. Advisory revenues totaled 68 million and was up 20 million from the first quarter of 2016 which was the strongest quarters since the fourth quarter of 2014. Improve performance driven by overall increased activity as we do not have one single large fee throughout the second quarter, unlike the first quarter when we benefited from a large fee tied to the micro Simi deal. As far as our pipeline, it remains solid as we continue to see decent activity from text to consumer sector. ECM equity underwriting revenue was 27 million and was up 42%, but again, very weak first quarter of 2016. While we are pleased with the improved performance, a note that year over year equity underwriting is still down 46%. The number of U.S. equity offerings increased 50% sequentially and is down nearly 30% from the second quarter of 2015. The number of IPOs rebounded to 33 from nine in the first quarter it’s still which has that first quarter than the slowest quarter since the first quarter of 2009. While it remains difficult to predict near-term issue windows, our pipeline continues to build with quality issues preparing to excess the market. So overall, for equity underwriting, we continue to believe that despite the improvement there is still significant upside in this business for us as market improves. In terms of our debt capital markets business, we continue to see very solid results in our public finance business as Stifel ranked number one in a number of issues-ish underwritten in the first half of the year nationwide. Next we will move on to our expenses. So I can walk through both compensation and non-comp expense as well as the reconciliation of our non-GAAP results to our GAAP results. We are presenting this slide differently this quarter to better illustrate the non-GAAP charges we incur, as we get closer to the vast majority of these charges coming off of our books. Adjusted compensation expense, up $410 million was up 4%. The quarterly increase was mostly due to higher revenue as our comp ratio was 62.8% which declined from 63.6% in the first quarter. It is actually the low the midpoint of our targeted range of 62 to 64 and as we continue to grow the balance sheet and if Investment Banking revenue continues to improve we would expect to see the comp ratio decline as these revenues carry a higher margin. But we continue to be comfortable with our prior guidance of 62% to 64% as it relates to compensation. Non-comp OpEx came in at 158 million, up 2% sequentially at the high end of our forecasted range, 153 to 158. The ratio in terms of expenses to revenue was 24.2%, down from 25% in the prior quarter. Sequentially the increase was mostly attributable to higher travel for most expenses as well as elevated expenses on the litigation side and increased FDIC insurance cost. While -- I just want to caution that legal expenses generally are lumpy and can move around. In terms of the reconciliation or GAAP results the vast majority of the adjustments that we make, the expense items are primarily the result -- but they are all the result of acquisition and much of that is related to how we look at purchase -- the way we purchase company. The total expense adjustment for a quarter was 68.1 million with 50 million related to comp, and $18 million related to non-comp. In terms of our outlook for the third quarter of 2016, we think it relates to non-comp OpEx. We think at a range of 155 to 165 as appropriate to 155 to 165 million, but low end of the range accounts for the for the cost savings from Sterne Agee's sale and the higher-end accounts are the potential of the more volatile items which would be again increased loan loss provisions and any legal expenses which again tend to be more volatile. This is a pretty good segue into slide 11 that provides further details on specific deals tied or non-GAAP charges. I've consistently said that our long-term approach to acquisitions was with structured transaction that maximize both associate retention and tax efficiency which we believe we have achieved in each of these transactions. The total charges as we forecast for the quarter were 69 million, it was lower than what we talked about. But that was because of stock based comp for Barclays will be fully realized both in this quarter and next quarter. And that have to do with timing issues associated with informing employees after the final dollar amount of the grant. So, net-net about $24 million of the charges that we expected this quarter will occur in the third quarter of 2016. After 2017, I would note, that we have no further non-GAAP charges associated with this transaction or frankly any transactions on our books now as core and GAAP come together and start to come together a lot in fourth quarter but totally comes together at the end of 2017, actually the first quarter of 2018. I would also note that is a function of the sale of the Sterne Agee businesses, some of the expected charges that we had in the third quarter of 2016 were realized in the second quarter of 2016. Turning to the next slide there is an update of the slide we showed last quarter that focuses on the convergence of our core and GAAP EPS as a current deal related expenses runoff. GAAP EPS was impacted in 2015 as we not only have legacy deals coming to an end but the impact of two large acquisitions Sterne Agee and Barclays. This resulted in a $1.24 share differential between core and GAAP EPS. In the first half of 2016, we have incurred $0.78 of GAAP charges, barring further acquisitions, as I have said we expected GAAP charges to substantially wind down beginning in the second half of 2016. So, if you look at the impact of these deal related charges, compared to current consensus estimates for 2017, our GAAP EPS could effectively double in 2017 from 2016. We remain highly focused on integrating our current acquisitions in the most accretive ways possible. This was illustrated by the recent sale of Sterne Agee. Over the past year, we analyzed how to integrate these businesses into Stifel. Our analysis indicated that the risk adjusted returns didn't make sense for us given the changes in the regulatory environment in the lower margins, really coupled with the lower margins generated in these businesses. Our focus on integration doesn't preclude us from doing another acquisition if the economics would be compelling, but we felt it was the best use of shareholder capital to do this divestiture. On the next side we quickly review the balance sheet and our repurchase activity, total assets continue to increase in the quarter. I think we said that we would achieve over 15 billion by this summer. I think we said that last year, and we came in at 15.2 billion as we continue to use our excess capital conservatively lever the balance sheet. Interest earning assets averaged 11.4 billion during the quarter; it's up 63% from one year ago. Firm-wide NIM was 171 basis points. I've already talked about the decline in NIM and I would say that the same reasons are true here firm-wide is in the bank. One thing that I want to mention was the change to the chart on this slide. We increase the level of historical IDA in the slide as we believe that some of the revenue attributable in the past should've been attributable to specific aspects. So the adjustment here drove a decline in NIM. As we continue to refine our disclosure, we believe this will better reflect what's going on in the balance sheet. We continue to maintain strong capital ratios despite the growth in our balance sheet. As you can see our tier one risk weighted assets improve in the quarter despite the asset growth as we continue to focus on CMBS and security-based loans that carry much lower risk weighting. In terms of rate sensitivity, we see modest benefit from the 25 basis point December increase in Fed funds due to some of our loans that are tied to 90 day LIBOR, but the impact to our financial from this with material and we are maintaining our guidance of $66 million of incremental pre-tax income annually from a 100 basis point increase in Fed fund rates. We currently have 7.6 million shares remaining on our existing authorization. As I said we purchase 600,000 shares to the state from the first quarter. In the last few slides before we take Q&A I want to touch on a few of the more important topics to Stifel in the near-term. We will continue the opportunistic in repurchasing shares. We continue to believe that utilizing our excess capital increases leverage in our balance sheet also offers very attractive returns. We've used the bar chart here for the past four earnings releases. First is the way illustrate how we manage our balance sheet as we invest in infrastructure and preparation for costing the $10 billion threshold and more recently to show how rapidly we have been able to grow asset while effectively managing risk. Our balance sheet as I said is over 15 billion. We added 1.2 billion during the quarter. Our risk weighting, asset density declined, and so overall I think that – what that show is that we've been able to do what we said with the balance sheet. So subsequent events and industry issues, as I said, we closed the sale of Sterne Agee, we issued 150 million of non-cumulative preferred shares, we can cut the effective way to optimize our balance sheet. We issue $200 million of senior debt while recalling 150 million of our 5 3/8 senior debt. So with that, let me conclude by saying I'm happy with our results in the first half despite the challenging market condition. I believe we continue to operate well below our capacity and that our shares remain meaningfully undervalued. So with that, I appreciate you taking the time to listen our call and your interest in Stifel, and operator with that, I'll take questions.