Earnings Labs

Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)

Q2 2018 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 2, 2017

$366.45

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ralph Lauren Second Quarter Fiscal 2018 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions on how to ask a question will be given at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mrs. Evren Kopelman. Please go ahead.

Evren Kopelman

Analyst

Good morning, and thank you for joining Ralph Lauren's second quarter fiscal 2018 conference call. With me today are Patrice Louvet, the company's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jane Nielsen, Chief Financial Officer. After prepared remarks, we will open up the call for your questions, which we ask that you limit to one per caller. During today's call, we will be making some forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal securities laws, including our financial outlook. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees. And our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Our expectations contain many risks and uncertainties. Principal risks and uncertainties that could cause our results to differ materially from our current expectations are detailed in our SEC filings. To find disclosures and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures that we use when discussing our financial results, you should refer to this morning's earnings release and to our SEC filings that can be found on our Investor Relations' website. And now, I will turn the call over to Patrice.

Patrice Louvet

Analyst

Thank you, Abrein. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. Our second quarter results demonstrate that we continue to execute on our plan to drive efficiencies and set a strong foundation for future growth. While we're certainly not where we want to be yet, we are encouraged that second quarter revenue was at the high end of our guidance and we outperformed on operating margin, as our quality-of-sales initiatives over delivered our expectations. This focus will continue through the rest of the year, and we are on track to deliver our full year targets. Over the past several months, I've met with many of our key suppliers and customers and thousands of our employees all over the world, these interactions have reaffirmed my excitement about the opportunity for our brand globally, I am incredibly inspired by the passion and commitment of our teams and confident in their capabilities. I've also spent a lot of time with Ralph, and we have developed a very close and productive partnership. I'm particularly excited by some of the early progress we're making together to drive the business forward. Moving ahead, we are focused on reigniting quality growth, while continuing to drive productivity. This balance of growth and productivity will translate into value creation for all of our stakeholders. Our key initiatives include: First, elevating our brand by improving quality of sales and distribution. Second, evolving our product and marketing to increase our reach and appeal with new consumers. Third, expanding our digital and international presence, and fourth, working in new ways to drive productivity and agility. While there's still a lot of work to be done, I'd like to take you through some of the early signs of progress across each of these initiatives. First, elevating our brand by improving quality…

Jane Nielsen

Analyst

Thank you, Patrice, and good morning, everyone. Our second quarter results showed strong progress on resetting the business to a healthier base. Our quality of sales improvements are delivering higher AURs, lower discounts, expanded gross margins, higher inventory turns and significant growth in free cash flow. Our performance this quarter was achieved despite meaningful impact from the tragic hurricanes that affected Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico. In total, we experienced about 1 point of comp pressure in North America as a result of the hurricanes. But our results do not tell the full story, and I am incredibly proud of our teams for their swift and tireless actions to ensure that all our employees were safe, to bring relief their communities and to reopen our stores quickly following these devastating events. Let me now turn to our results. Second quarter revenues declined 9% on both a reported basis and in constant currency, which was at the high end of our guidance. Adjusted operating margin was 13.4%, 100 basis points above last year on a reported basis and 70 points higher in constant currency. Gross margin in the second quarter was up 300 basis points to last year and up 290 basis points in constant currency, driven by both average unit retail increases and discount rate reductions. Consistent with previous quarters, approximately half of the increase was driven by reduced promotional activity and half by favorable geographic and channel mix. We also remain on track with our target expense savings for the year. Operating expenses were down 5% to last year in the second quarter, driven by rightsizing our cost structure, closing unprofitable distribution and changing product development processes through SKU optimization. This productivity allows us to fund our early growth initiatives while delivering our performance commitments for the year. Moving…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan. You may ask your question.

Matthew Boss

Analyst

Thanks and nice early progress. So Patrice, on the four initiatives you outlined, and as we think about that time line for change here, what inning would you say each of the 4 initiatives fall into that?

Patrice Louvet

Analyst

Good morning Matt. So let's take them one by one. First, elevating the brand through quality of sales and distribution. I think as you've heard, we've made a very good progress on improving the quality of our distribution, shutting down stores, exiting brands like denim and supply, pulling back in wholesale both in terms of points of distribution. You know we're down 20% to 25% points of distribution in department stores. And also, as Jane just mentioned, significantly reducing shipments to the off-price channel's. So if you use a baseball analogy, which is very topical, this morning, I'd say probably seventh inning when it comes to quality of distribution. On the progress for quality of sales, I'd say, on this one, we're making good progress. You've seen us reduce the discounts and that's very visible through the 5% increase in AUR this past quarter. I struggle to provide an inning on this one because this is a game that never stops, right. We want to continuously reduce our level of discounting and improve our quality of sales. So that's on the first one. On the second one, our product and marketing. I'd say early days on products, so probably the first inning. We're beginning to see the benefits of the work that started many months ago, starting to appear in-store now. You heard some of the examples that we quoted. I think what we're seeing is a more disciplined assortment. We're seeing fewer SKUs, we're seeing the beginning of our limited additions. So, again, I think probably first inning there. I'd also say probably first inning on marketing. You've seen the support behind the show. We're getting more influencers to come into the brand, but a lot of our programs actually are going to start to kick in more in…

Jane Nielsen

Analyst

Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Brian Tunick with RBC. You may ask your question.

Brian Tunick

Analyst · RBC. You may ask your question.

Thanks. Good morning, guys.

Jane Nielsen

Analyst · RBC. You may ask your question.

Good morning, Brian.

Brian Tunick

Analyst · RBC. You may ask your question.

Good morning, Jane. Two question, maybe Patrice can talk about how he envisions maybe the North America channel mix, particularly maybe in wholesale. What do you think the right mix of the department stores versus off-price or digital wholesale should look like over the next couple of years? And then as we think about the revenue growth maybe in the next year or two , should we be thinking about that stabilization next year, is there a chance to grow once we get beyond sort of this pullback in distribution and quality of sales? Thanks very much.

Patrice Louvet

Analyst · RBC. You may ask your question.

Yeah, good morning, Brian. So let me take the first one on the channel dynamics. So we really look at the whole ecosystem ranging go-to-market ecosystem, ranging from flagships all the way to off-price. And all the channels have a role to play for us in the future, obviously, including wholesale. Specifically, I think as we look at wholesale, the areas we're focused on there is getting the foundations healthy, right. As I mentioned earlier, the challenging our distribution, make sure we have the right product that we show up in the right way in department stores and then we have the right marketing that goes with it. But we do expect abutment stores continue to play an important role for us moving forward. I want to double-click on the wholesale.com part because that's an important growth factor for us in the future, as I mentioned earlier. Off-price also has a role to play for us moving forward, but we actually want to deemphasize the role of off-price in our total business. We believe you've kind of a bit of our ahead of our in this channel, and so what it has a role to play and our consumers there anyone to appeal to. We are pulling back on off-price and we'll continue to do that for the rest of the overtime.

Jane Nielsen

Analyst · RBC. You may ask your question.

Yeah, Brian I would say that definitely, as we think about the future, you're going to see, as you did this quarter, less penetration in our total wholesale mix from off-price. And obviously, as Patrice called out, digital has been a highlight in wholesale. So I'd expect that to increase in penetration. And certainly, we have an opportunity once we right-sized wholesale to get back to share growth. So those are sort of how we think about the total ecosystem. As I think about revenue growth following quality-of-sales initiatives, we absolutely believe that after we get through our rightsizing and quality-of-sales initiatives, quality of sales is going to be an ongoing scene I think it will be about balance and - but following the reset that we would get back to growth and obviously. As Patrice said, in June, we're going to come back and play out the initiatives in more detail and give you a better road map for the timing of our financial metrics and our come back to growth. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Kate McShane with Citi Research. You may ask your question.

Kate McShane

Analyst · Citi Research. You may ask your question.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wondered with regards to China, sounds like you're seeing some nice green chutes. Wondered what makes this launch into China the right strategy, what have you learned about the region that you think you understand more than you did before when you pursue this market? And is there product segmentation with the region, is there more of an emphasis on one particular segment like Polo?

Patrice Louvet

Analyst · Citi Research. You may ask your question.

So we have relatively long history in China as a company actually. Right, so if I kind of rewind the tapes a little bit, we've come through three phases. The early phase was through licensees, which ended up building distribution that I think in hindsight wasn't the right distribution for us. So when the company took over the license in 2010, a lot of our distribution was shut down and then there was an emphasis put on luxury with the expectation that establishing the brand at the high end would be the right way to enter the market, which I think strategically was spot on, because that is the type of equity we want to build for the brand in all new markets, particularly in a market like China. But obviously, we ended up being challenged in the overall economic model of being able to support a business that was exclusively focused on luxury. So that did not play out I think as the way it was originally intended. So we now have the benefit of all those learning's for this third phase where we are going to focus really on establishing Polo as the core of the business. We will obviously drive our luxury business as well to drive overall image, but the heart of the business for us in China will be Polo. We're also very clear in terms of how we want to show up relative to the ecosystem, the go-to-market ecosystem I was referring to earlier, with an almost digital first mindset, so I think you've heard us talk about how we're now on WeChat, JD.com and T-mall and then also opening different store format that we have historically there. So slightly smaller stores, more focused on Polo and the early results that we're seeing are…

Jane Nielsen

Analyst · Citi Research. You may ask your question.

Yeah, Kate, I can't say enough about how important the resetting of the base and the elevation of the brand has been in building our confidence for China in the future. As you can see in our segment reporting, just three years ago, we were not profitable in the Asia region and specifically, in China. And the team has done tremendous work as you've seen notably in this quarter in Asia to really expand operating margin. So that now, China and Asia growth is accretive over all Ralph Lauren growth. And so from a profitability standpoint and a healthy base standpoint, we're on solid footing. The brand is in great shape. We've cleaned up our distribution, which is an effort that we're continuing, and we are opening doors in a way that makes sense. We've got flagships that build the brand. We've got Polo doors that are smaller footprint that have excellent four-wall profitability that we're building out. And as you can see, we're building out a system of concessions that get us reach with our Chinese consumers and also provide a very healthy ROI. The gross margin in Asia is the highest that we have in the company. And so building and scaling in the Asia market is an opportunity to continue to expand operating margin, but to really be a significant factor of growth for us. The time is certainly right, and we have the right team and we are in the right position to do so now. Next question please.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from John Kernan with Cowen and Company. You may ask your question.

John Kernan

Analyst · Cowen and Company. You may ask your question.

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question.

Jane Nielsen

Analyst · Cowen and Company. You may ask your question.

Sure.

John Kernan

Analyst · Cowen and Company. You may ask your question.

Patrice, you obviously, have a lot of experience globally and Ralph Lauren's a global brand, just wondering, how you thinking about Europe. We've seen a transfer a lot of global apparel brands improve in Europe recently. I'm wondering when do you think Europe can become a growth market for Ralph Lauren again? Thank you.

Patrice Louvet

Analyst · Cowen and Company. You may ask your question.

Good morning, John. Thanks for your question. Well, yeah, I mean, internationally, we have both distribution growth opportunities as well as comp growth opportunities. So clearly, exciting potential for us moving forward. We just talked about Asia has been paying this penetrated market, and obviously, our primary growth driver there will be Mainland China. Looking at Europe, right now we're implementing an enhanced focus on quality of sales and distribution where I think, again, we got ahead of our season on distribution in some parts of Europe and we have to wheel that back. We're also working on getting the right level of discounting in that market. So that's going to create some pressure on the number of transactions and comps in the short-term. However, in the long-term, we - to your point, I think, have significant growth opportunities both from a distribution and comp growth standpoint. We actually - so Jane and I have been traveling quite a bit we were in Europe 10 days ago, U.K., Germany, France where we spent a lot of time in the market understanding where we are and what the opportunities are. One interesting data point is across Europe, we only have I think the precise number is 19 full price stores across the entire region, which is an indication of the upside potential that we have there look at our store footprint. We also have very promising progress on digital, I mentioned Zalando earlier and many other partners that we're working with that also indicated the significant upside there. Then finally, as we toured a number of our wholesale partners, we know we can do a better job with our wholesale partners in Europe. So I think across all these sectors, once we've completed the work quality of sales, which is critical, we have significant growth opportunity across the region. For example, we don't have a store, dedicated store in Spain, which is relatively sizable market. So we will get the balance right between Asia and Europe, but we're certainly looking at both regions that's growth vectors for us in the future.

Jane Nielsen

Analyst · Cowen and Company. You may ask your question.

Next question please.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Omar Saad with Evercore ISI. You may ask your question.

Omar Saad

Analyst · Evercore ISI. You may ask your question.

Thanks, good morning. Thanks for all the information. Nice quarter.

Jane Nielsen

Analyst · Evercore ISI. You may ask your question.

Thank you, Omar.

Omar Saad

Analyst · Evercore ISI. You may ask your question.

I wanted to ask about products. Patrice, you mentioned fashion forward product having a feel, I think that comment was probably more specific to Asia and China. But I wanted to kind of ask you more broadly how do you think about managing the different trends going on in the marketplace as you evolve product line? Retro trends, fashion forward trends, the traditional kind of core heritage around the brand, maybe help us understand how you're thinking about evolving the product, where you it needs to go in concert with their efforts with Ralph's and the creative team? Thanks.

Patrice Louvet

Analyst · Evercore ISI. You may ask your question.

Sure. Good morning, Omar. So we're looking at multiple vectors to evolve our product offering. The first one, which is going to sound pretty basic was actually critical. It's really driving a more disciplined assortment. Having more discipline and understanding the role of this that we're introducing, eliminating the unproductive styles, better balancing offering across categories across price points, to have good, better, best propositions across the categories that matter. The second point is there's a critical timelessness to this brand, and we have phenomenal icons and I think we've all come to the conclusion that we can do more with our Icons and put greater emphasis on our Icons and that as part of what - the early progress we are seeing this Fall season is actually driven by what's happening with our Icons. The third area is the renewal of our - and again, this is a very important part of our business. On this area, we are looking at fits, we're looking at styles, we're looking at materials, we're looking at colors. And you can imagine, I've been very impressed by the design team that we have in-house and have had a number of conversations with them, they're very in touch with what's going on in the market, both here and around the world, and really making sure that our propositions moving forward. Take that into account, while also staying true to who we are, right. So we're not going to be jerked around by all the fashion trends out there in the market and lose kind of the fundamental what this brand stands for and the timelessness of it. We will be in touch with the trends while staying true to who we are, and obviously, making sure that what we offer is exciting and relevant for the consumers that we want to serve. You heard me talk about the limited editions and we've been excited about the reactions, the stadium and actually pretty need to see the long lines, the night before outside stores where people waiting to buy it. So we're going to continue to drive that, we're going look at partnerships moving forward as well, which I think will bring even more interest and excitement to the brand. And then the final point, which is less about trends and style, it's more about strategic choices. There are three categories where we should be playing more actively, where we are underdeveloped and where I believe we have a basis to win. So that will also be another vector of growth as we look at overall product offering.

Evren Kopelman

Analyst · Evercore ISI. You may ask your question.

Next question please?

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Heather Balsky with Bank of America. You may ask your question.

Heather Balsky

Analyst · Bank of America. You may ask your question.

Hi. Thank you for taking my call. Just actually a follow-up on Omar's question. Can you talk about how you're thinking about product in terms of your different channels distribution, off-price versus full-line versus outlet, and how you're going to differentiate between those channels? Thanks.

Patrice Louvet

Analyst · Bank of America. You may ask your question.

Good morning, Heather. That's also a great question. And the headline thought here is we know we need to do a better job differentiating our propositions across channels. Things have gotten blurred and I don't think it's helping the consumer kind of navigate our brand and we want to get really clear on the role of each channel and what the value proposition is in each channel for our brand and drive greater differentiation. And there are many different ways to drive differentiation, whether its different styles, different categories, how the products are presented and so on, and so forth. But clearly an area of focus for us moving forward, we need to and we will drive a stronger differentiation across the channels that we operate in.

Jane Nielsen

Analyst · Bank of America. You may ask your question.

Heather, I do think that the inventory discipline in the - and the buying process discipline that we put in place will enable us to differentiate product assortments, but also maintain of the SKU efficiency and inventory efficiencies that we've been able to drive over the last year. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Ike Boruchow with Wells Fargo. You may ask your question.

Nancy Hilliker

Analyst · Wells Fargo. You may ask your question.

Hi, everyone. This is Nancy Hilliker on for Ike. Great job.

Jane Nielsen

Analyst · Wells Fargo. You may ask your question.

Thank you.

Nancy Hilliker

Analyst · Wells Fargo. You may ask your question.

Our question - hi. Our question is obviously, you had an amazing gross margin in the quarter. Can you just talk a little bit about more about puts and takes in the back half? And given the shift, what we should expect, any into the quarters for gross margin and also actually for SG&A as well?

Jane Nielsen

Analyst · Wells Fargo. You may ask your question.

So, Nancy, as we look at gross margin in the second quarter, we feel that we'll have gross margin expansion in the second half of at least 150 basis points. So as we move forward and we're seeing our gross margin trends, we've been confident in moving up that guidance on gross margin. What you'll see in the second half in terms of SG&A is a real shift in the fourth quarter where we are going to be investing in new stores, but most notably, marketing. Jonathan Bottomley, our new Head of Marketing, has been on board. And we have a Polo campaign coming out and some real amplification in marketing. In fact, if you look at our marketing spend, as you can see in the Q, that's been down in the first half, and it's going to be up significantly in the second half, around double-digit in the third quarter, but up significantly in the fourth quarter. As we really believe marketing and telling our story is a great opportunity for us and a great opportunity to really get back to telling our story to position us for growth. Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Rick Patel with Needham & Company. You may ask your question.

Rick Patel

Analyst · Needham & Company. You may ask your question.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and congrats on the progress.

Jane Nielsen

Analyst · Needham & Company. You may ask your question.

Thank you.

Rick Patel

Analyst · Needham & Company. You may ask your question.

A follow-up question on expenses. So you talked about investments in marketing, product and stores. Can you dig a little deeper and talk about which geographies will receive the most investment? I'm curious about how you're weighing investment in North America, which is your most challenging market right now, versus investing in growth areas like Asia? And if I can squeeze in a quick housekeeping one, any updates to report on tourism given the changes in FX? Thank you.

Jane Nielsen

Analyst · Needham & Company. You may ask your question.

Of course. So on the expense side, and as we think about investments by market, obviously, with our growth focus in Asia, that market will need more marketing. The marketing we've put is very effective, as Patrice noted. Our top-of-mind awareness in China is very high and really is another thing that gives us confidence for growth. So you'll see marketing go up in China. Also, as we called out in our store profile, most of the new doors that are being opened are being opened in Asia, and most of the concessions that we're opening this year will be opened in Asia. So capital will be shifting to the China market as we build out. You'll also see capital going into Europe as we realize the opportunity for some greater store penetration in Europe, as well as some marketing. In North America, what the focus in capital will be is more refurbishment, how do we refresh our store environment. We're fully, although there'll be some close store here opened ones there, but it really our opportunity is to show up really well in North America and give some of our stores the love that they deserve in terms of refurbishment. You'll see marketing also in the U.S. I think we have to get back to telling our story in the U. S. Notably, on our digital site, as we - now that the - we're switched on our platform, you're going to see, especially in the third - later third and fourth quarter, more digital assets show up in marketing on our digital sites, but also telling our story in the market but in a much more digitally savvy social media way.

Patrice Louvet

Analyst · Needham & Company. You may ask your question.

There is a question, actually the latest data in North America for our U.S. retail stores, basically, sales are down low single digits. And in our European stores, sales were down from tourists mid-single digits. So, better in North America than we've seen in the long, long time actually this past quarter. In Europe, it's still pretty stable in mid down mid-singles.

Jane Nielsen

Analyst · Needham & Company. You may ask your question.

Trend continues in this quarter was up nicely, so it's encouraging.

Patrice Louvet

Analyst · Needham & Company. You may ask your question.

Yes.

Jane Nielsen

Analyst · Needham & Company. You may ask your question.

Next question, please.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Andrew Roberts on behalf of Bob Drbul with Guggenheim. You may ask your question.

Andrew Roberts

Analyst · Guggenheim. You may ask your question.

Hi. Good morning. So I guess, you guys launched T-mall and JD.com this quarter. I was wondering if you guys could give us any update on your thoughts of launching on Amazon in North America and elsewhere?

Patrice Louvet

Analyst · Guggenheim. You may ask your question.

Good morning, Andrew. So let me rewind a little bit on your question just to give the bigger picture on how we're seeing e-commerce, and I will answer your question. As I mentioned earlier, so e-commerce is very clearly critical for our future growth. This is going to be the way for us to reach the consumers, where they are, in the most effective way to drive - to build the brand and to drive the business. I talked about the three buckets that we have, our own site, wholesales.com and pure players. When we look at pure players, the model we really like is actually the T-mall model where we manage our own shop in the - on their marketplace and we have a digital storefront for the brand. That's the model we're excited about. So we continue to evaluate online partners including the one you just quoted. So we want to make sure we win in this channel. But we're also looking to do it in a way that we can build a brand and that we can show up the way the brand is intended to show up. So nothing new to report on Amazon in particular.

Evren Kopelman

Analyst · Guggenheim. You may ask your question.

We will take one last question.

Operator

Operator

The last question comes from Laurent Vasilescu with Macquarie. You may ask your question.

Laurent Vasilescu

Analyst

Good morning and thanks for taking my question. Jane, I want to ask about the North American wholesale business I think it was mentioned it was down 22% and 70% of that was driven by active measures. How should we think about those metrics for the third and fourth quarter and potentially beyond?

Jane Nielsen

Analyst

So we're comfortable with our guidance in terms of our total wholesale outlook, and specifically for North America, as we said. We expect that we'll see wholesale end the year in about the same range that you saw in Q2, so we're down about 22% Q2. I expect the full year will look about similar as our cleanup continues through the third and fourth quarter. We are encouraged by what we see as progress on execution. Our underlying comp rate, as we view it, is in the mid to high single digits, and we know what we have product and marketing that we need to focus on as well as the store refreshments to change that trend as we move into FY 2019. So about similar to the year to what you saw in this quarter, but I think that the pretty stable underlying comp trend that we are looking to address as we look at all the vectors product marketing and stores.

Patrice Louvet

Analyst

Good. So we're going to close here. Thank you all for joining our call this morning. We look forward to talking to you next quarter. Have a great day. Take care.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.