Tracey Travis
Analyst · Citi
Thank you, Jacki, and good morning, everyone. As Roger highlighted earlier, we reported excellent full year operating results, and the fourth quarter, which despite the impact of meaningful calendar shifts that we described to you on our third quarter earnings call, exceeded our expectations given the continued momentum in our business. Incremental sales and profit within our Retail segment were the primary drivers of the upside, with all regions of the world contributing to the outperformance, although the heaviest concentration was achieved in the United States. Before I provide you with further insight into the fourth quarter's operational drivers, I do need to remind you of the nature of the calendar shifts we told you about in February that negatively affect comparisons with our prior-year periods, impacts that were reflected in the guidance we previously provided you for the fourth quarter. Roger mentioned them as well, and they do include an extra 53rd week that was in our results last year in the fourth quarter and a later Easter week this year that shifted that holiday sales growth into the first quarter of our fiscal 2012 versus the fourth quarter that we're reporting now. Lastly, we also mentioned the timing of the high-volume sales week post-Christmas that fell within our third quarter of fiscal 2011 compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010. On a normalized calendar basis, we estimate the shifts alone negatively affected our reported sales growth in the quarter by approximately 10 full percentage points. Unless otherwise noted, my discussion of our fourth quarter business performance is based on our reported GAAP financial results, which reflect a 13-week period for fiscal 2011 and a 14-week period for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010. On a reported basis, consolidated net revenues were $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter, 7% above the prior-year period and led by a double-digit gain in Retail segment sales. Our Retail performance was better than we expected in several areas, including same-store sales, the contribution from new stores and our performance in Asia, excluding Japan. We did not incur any meaningful impact from foreign currency translations on our consolidated fourth quarter sales as the strengthening of the Japanese yen was mostly offset by a modest weakening of the euro relative to last year. The gross profit margin of 56.8% was essentially in line with our expectations. As we have communicated all year, we have incurred cost-of-goods inflation for this year's spring/summer season, and we determined that we would not make any material changes to our pricing until the upcoming fall season. Some of the inflationary cost-of-goods pressure we experienced in the fourth quarter was offset by a higher level of full-price selling at most of our retail concepts and the seasonal variations in our overall channel mix. Operating expenses of $693 million were 12% above the prior-year period, and the operating expense margin rose 240 basis points to 48.6% in the fourth quarter, reflecting incremental expenses associated with our newly transitioned South Korean operations, the continued investment in our growth initiatives and higher incentive compensation costs. Fourth quarter operating income of $117 million was 32% below the prior-year period, primarily due to the calendar shifts affecting the comparability with the prior-year period and the lower gross profit margin and higher expense rate I just discussed. Net income was $73 million, and net income per diluted share was $0.74 for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011. Our effective tax rate in the fourth quarter at 34.4% was approximately 250 basis points higher than the prior-year period as a greater proportion of our earnings were generated in higher tax jurisdictions. Due to the timing of the natural disasters in Japan, which occurred in the latter part of our fiscal fourth quarter, the financial impact on our reported results was relatively modest at approximately $0.02 per diluted share. Moving on to segment highlights. Wholesale segment sales rose 2% to $752 million in the fourth quarter as strong growth in U.S. Wholesale shipments, continued growth in department stores in Europe, as well as expanded distribution in Greater China were mostly offset by a planned decline in Japanese Wholesale shipments and softness in some European specialty stores, most notably in Italy. Wholesale operating income was $136 million in the fourth quarter, and the operating profit margin was 18.2% compared to 24.9% in the prior-year period. The decline in margin rate is primarily attributable to the cost-of-goods inflation, lower Japanese Wholesale shipments and continued investment in new merchandise categories. The 14% increase in Retail segment sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 primarily reflects strong momentum at our factory stores worldwide and on RalphLauren.com, as well as the incremental contribution from newly transitioned South Korea operations. Overall, comparable store sales, which I'm referencing on a 13-week to 13-week basis, increased 7%, which was achieved on top of a 16% gain in the prior-year period and, of course, excludes the sales at the Asian stores and concession shops that we assumed in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010. These sales will be included in our comps beginning in the first quarter of fiscal 2012 as they are fully anniversaried. The 3% decline in Ralph Lauren comps during the fourth quarter is entirely due to our Retail Japanese operation. Excluding Japan, Ralph Lauren comps were flat on top of a 17% increase in the prior-year period. Sales trends at our global flagship locations worldwide, many of which are not in our comp base, have been very strong, which is consistent with the rebound in sales of global luxury products. Factory store comps rose 8% in the fourth quarter, Club Monaco comps were up 10%, with excellent performance in trend-right women's fashions, and sales at RalphLauren.com increased 21%. Across all Retail formats, customers are responding to our compelling product content, as Jacki mentioned, and our focused merchandising strategies. Our strong third quarter sales provided us with a good start to full-price spring selling in the fourth quarter. In the United States, high-traffic urban locations and popular tourist destinations for both Ralph Lauren and factory stores continue to post the strongest sales trends for us. We also achieved better conversion rates on higher traffic levels this quarter. In Europe, unseasonably cold weather and civil unrest in the Middle East during the quarter negatively affected customer traffic across the continent, although trends improved meaningfully in the latter part of the period. Performance in our Greater China and South Korea concession shops was also better than anticipated during the quarter. Japan sales trended down approximately 30% in the weeks following the earthquake and tsunami compared to relatively flat performance in the quarter-to-date period prior to the disasters. Retail segment operating income of $26 million was 40% greater than the prior-year period, and the operating margin improved 80 basis points to 4.1%. Strong comp growth and higher full price sell-throughs more than offset the short-term dilutive impact of South Korea, investment in international e-commerce, cost inflation and extraordinary items such as the business disruption in Japan. Licensing royalties for the quarter were $44 million, 6% below the prior-year period. Higher fragrance licensing revenues were more than offset by a decline in international licensing revenues related to the South Korea transition. We also had Lauren Home product licensing revenues as a result of some of the strategic changes that Jacki spoke to earlier. The 19% decline in licensing operating income in the fourth quarter is attributable to the same international and home effects that impacted sales for licensing. Consolidated inventory was up 39% at the end of the fourth quarter on a reported basis. Approximately half of the increase in dollars is to support the anticipated sales growth and shipment cadence highlighted in our fiscal 2012 outlook. And 1/4 of the increase is related to newly transitioned Asian operations within fiscal 2011. As you’ll recall, we had unusually low inventory levels this time last year from the transition of the Southeast Asia and Greater China region, and our South Korean inventory is entirely incremental this year versus last year. The remaining 1/4 of the increase is attributable to cost-of-goods inflation and foreign currency dynamics. With a relatively flat inventory turn and near-term sales expectations in the first quarter, we remain comfortable with the content and currency of our inventory. We spent approximately $255 million in capital expenditures during the fiscal 2011 to support our retail store and wholesale shop development worldwide, in addition to continued infrastructure investments. We also repurchased approximately 6 million shares of stock for an aggregate of $578 million during the year, including 2 million shares for $247 million during the fourth quarter. And as Roger mentioned, yesterday, our board authorized an additional $500 million for share repurchase, bringing our total current authorizations to $972 million. We ended the year with $1.1 billion in cash and investments after funding all of our capital and acquisition cost needs and returning a substantial amount of capital to shareholders via our share repurchase activity, as well as a doubling of the dividend. Fiscal 2011 was clearly a year of tremendous progress for advancing our strategic objectives, while still growing earnings at a double-digit rate. And we are encouraged by the current momentum of our underlying business trends, even though we are mindful and experiencing intensifying inflationary dynamics that are beginning to broadly affect consumers. While we are currently benefiting from strong demand for our products across most channels and formats worldwide, we are increasingly impacted by the inflationary pressure on cost of goods as evidenced by our fourth quarter gross margin dynamics. As most of you know, the cost of goods inflation we began to experience in the second half of fiscal 2011 intensifies in fiscal '12 with fall inventory receipts. Beginning this fall, as Roger indicated, we made what we believe are responsible, selective pricing adjustments to mitigate a portion of the impact. In general, we've determined not to pass on the full impact of our higher cost of goods, and the magnitude of inflation is such that we do expect our gross profit margin and, therefore, our operating margin, to be down in fiscal 2012. We believe the customer, the consumer, will accept some higher prices due to the strength of our brand and the consistent quality of our merchandise. But after a decade of apparel deflation, the actual customer reaction remains unknown until the merchandise is available for sale in the stores. We also remain committed to our strategy of investing in growth initiatives in infrastructure during fiscal 2012, including international retail expansion and e-commerce and continued systems enhancements. Sequencing these types of investments as we have in the past should help to drive profit growth in future years. Now I'd like to briefly review our initial expectations for the year that we outlined in this morning's press release. For the first quarter of fiscal 2012, we currently expect consolidated net revenues to increase in the mid-20s range, a rate of growth that is an acceleration of the momentum we experienced in the second half of fiscal 2011 and is positively impacted by the benefit of the later Easter sales I highlighted earlier. Wholesale revenues are expected to increase at a low 20% rate based on strong shipment growth in both the U.S. and Europe. Retail segment sales are expected to grow slightly faster than Wholesale revenues, a function of low double-digit comparable store sales growth and the contribution from new stores and concession shops, inclusive of our incremental South Korean concession shops and stores. Our operating margin for the first quarter is expected to be approximately equivalent to the prior-year period, with a higher Retail mix offsetting the continued margin decline in Wholesale due to cost of goods. We will also incur higher operating expenses related to the continued investment in our growth initiatives across geographies, distribution channels and emerging product categories. For the full fiscal 2012 period, we expect revenues to increase at a mid-teens rate with Retail segment sales again growing slightly faster than Wholesale revenues. Our full year operating margin is expected to decline 100 to 150 basis points, primarily due to the gross profit margin pressure I discussed earlier. We also continue to monitor our performance closely in Japan, post the unfortunate incidents of the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis. As the entire nation is obviously preoccupied with its safety and relief efforts, we currently expect the initial disruption and subsequent irregular shopping patterns in Japan to negatively impact our fiscal results, which is also reflected in our sales and margin guidance. We will also support our growth initiatives with advertising and marketing spending for our new product introductions to generate more awareness for emerging product categories such as denim and to support our international expansion efforts. We have excluded any potential extraordinary charges that may result from our Greater China repositioning efforts. These charges could range from $10 million the $20 million depending on the timing of the closure. Our fiscal 2012 tax rate is planned at approximately 33% based on our forecasted income mix and excluding any discrete items. We intend to spend approximately $325 million in capital expenditures in fiscal 2012 to support our Retail and Wholesale growth initiatives and the consistent upgrading of our global infrastructure. We currently expect to open 34 new stores and 47 concession shops during the year and close 65 stores and shops in the Greater China region as part of the repositioning that was discussed earlier by Roger. And much of our capital next year is dedicated to our international growth efforts, including continued expansion of Ralph Lauren in the Asia Pacific region, the introduction of Rugby and Club Monaco brands into Europe and the launch of Denim & Supply, with shops in leading department stores around the world. So we've communicated a lot to you this morning regarding our results and our plans for this year. We are clearly balancing multiple factors in our fiscal '12 outlook with the realities of the margin pressure as we execute our plans. Over the years, our team has demonstrated incredible agility when faced with highly uncertain market environments, and we expect the same to be true in fiscal 2012 as we navigate through the near-term impacts of commodity inflation. Our ability to gain share in our largest markets and expand merchandise categories is enabling us to build additional platforms for future growth, and our financial strength and increasing cash generation prowess allow us the flexibility to invest in opportunities that will yield substantive future returns for our shareholders. With that, let's open the call for your questions. Operator, would you assist us with that?