Tracey Travis
Analyst · Needham & Company
Thank you, Jacki, and good morning, everyone. As you've seen in this morning's press release, our third quarter and year-to-date performance reflects exceptionally strong top line momentum and even more robust flow-through to profit growth. Consolidated net revenues in the third quarter were $1.5 billion, a 24% increase from the prior year period with growth in both our Wholesale and Retail segments exceeding 20%. Solid performance of our core men's, women's and children's apparel was enhanced by incremental sales from our newly transitioned Asian operations and some favorable calendar shifts, which accounted for approximately 400 basis points of the consolidated sales increase. Revenue growth exceeded our expectations, primarily due to the strength of our Retail segment, including considerable same-store sales growth at our directly operated stores at RalphLauren.com. Shipments to our global department store customers also exceeded our expectations this quarter. The net impact of foreign currency translation on our total reported revenue growth was negligible for the third quarter. The gross profit rate of 58.6% in the third quarter was 40 basis points above the prior year period, reflecting stronger full-priced sales that more than offset the initial impact of increasing cost of goods. Our comprehensive merchandising initiatives across all product categories and focused on our wholesale customers, retail stores and e-commerce sites, supported the excellent full-price sell-throughs we experienced. The strengthening of the Japanese yen more than offset the magnitude of the unfavorable currency impact we experienced from the euro translation and that we anticipated when we spoke with you in November. Expenses in the quarter included incremental costs associated with our Hong Kong operation as well as the South Korean pre-acquisition costs, our European e-commerce launch expenses, higher incentive compensation costs and global infrastructure support cost. Despite these investment expenditures, we achieved 160 basis points of operating expense leverage, which was better than the modest leverage we had expected. The magnitude of the operating expense leverage in the quarter was another important contributor to our outperformance relative to our expectations. Operating income of $246 million was 43% above the prior year period. Our operating margin also showed considerable improvement, expanding 200 basis points to 15.9% and reflecting improved profitability across all of our reporting segments. Net income for the third quarter of fiscal 2011 increased 52% to $168 million, and net income per diluted share rose 56% to $1.72. The lower effective tax rate of 29% compared to 33% in the third quarter of fiscal 2010 reflects the favorable resolution of discrete tax items that was partially offset by a greater proportion of earnings generated in higher-tax jurisdictions this fiscal year. Moving on to segment highlights for the quarter. Our Wholesale segment sales rose 21% to $676 million, a result of double-digit shipment growth in both the United States and European markets. Third quarter wholesale operating income of $130 million was 21% greater than last year, and the wholesale operating margin expanded 10 basis points to 19.3%. Higher profit flow-through on the growth in shipment volumes and disciplined operational management of expenses were the primary drivers of improved wholesale operating income and margin rate, although they were somewhat offset by the first signs of cost of goods inflation. For our Retail group, our marketing and merchandising efforts substantially benefited our direct-to-consumer channel during the quarter. From the opening of our 888 Madison Avenue flagship store here in New York in October and the considerable response to it, to the strength of our global merchandising product lines for fall and holiday, to our visual presentation, both in-store and online of the brand, which seem to resonate with consumers globally, our customer traffic at Retail continued to build throughout the quarter. As a result, strong comparable store sales growth, the contribution from newly opened stores and incremental sales from our newly assumed stores and concession shops in Asia drove third quarter revenue up 29% to $822 million. Our overall comp store sales increased 15% during the quarter, reflecting 7% growth at Ralph Lauren stores and concession shops, a 15% increase at global factory stores and 12% growth at Club Monaco stores. Improved traffic and improved conversion trends, in addition to increased full-price selling, were all key drivers of comp growth. It is encouraging for all of us to see a broad range of key performance indicators delivering in a retail environment that was still fairly unpredictable and promotional in the quarter. In the U.S., stores in key tourist destinations like New York, California, Dallas and Florida, have rebounded and are outperforming the average comp trend. Club Monaco continues to benefit from compelling women's fashion assortments and the Men's business also gained some momentum during the quarter. RalphLauren.com's spectacular 33% sales growth was also supported by higher traffic to the site and improved conversion, with accessories and children's wear registering the greatest sales gains on the site. Even as consumers are shopping more online, the momentum at RalphLauren.com, combined with the solid comp growth at our brick-and-mortar stores and our strength at wholesale, suggest we are providing a compelling customer experience and desirable product assortments and, therefore, capturing a higher share of wallet across all channels and formats. We opened 14 directly operated freestanding stores and closed five directly operated freestanding stores during the quarter, ending the period with 376 company-operated stores. We also operated 520 concession shop locations worldwide at the end of the third quarter. Included in these store counts are four directly operated stores and 179 concession shop locations assumed in the transition of the formerly licensed South Korea operations, which occurred on January 1, 2011, the last day of our fiscal quarter, although we did not record any sales associated with the network during that period. Retail segment operating income grew 52% to $153 million in the third quarter, and the retail operating margin increased 280 basis points to 18.6%. This is a new peak level of Retail segment profitability for the third quarter period. The considerable improvement in retail operating income and the expansion in margin rate were a result of strong comparable store sales growth, higher full-price sell-through rates across most retail concepts and disciplined operating management. Partially offsetting these gains were incremental expenses related to our newly assumed Asian operations and start-up costs for our international e-commerce efforts. Investments we've made in product development and presentation, product flow, sales training for our associates in marketing and advertising are also clearly supporting our improvement in sales productivity. Licensing royalties grew 4% to $50 million in the third quarter, as higher domestic product licensing revenues more than offset lower international royalties due to the transition of formerly licensed Asian operations. Operating income for our Licensing segment increased 23% to $30 million, primarily as a result of lower net cost associated with the Asian transition. Our strong operating results are reflected in our solid financial condition. We ended the quarter with approximately $1.3 billion in cash and investments and $1 billion in net cash. Consolidated inventories were up 28% from the prior year period on a reported basis, which includes the incremental inventory to support over 300 Asian concession shops and stores in the Hong Kong region and the newly transitioned South Korea network. Excluding the incremental Asian inventory, consolidated comp inventory was up 19% from the comparable period last year. The remaining growth in inventory primarily reflects the investment to support our new and enhanced merchandising programs such as handbags, basic stock replenishment and our new European e-commerce site. In addition, we've taken proactive measures to avoid potential supply chain disruption in light of the timing of the lunar New Year in Asia, which is February 3 through February 14, by receiving goods earlier. In fact, higher in-transit inventory accounted for about half of the total increase on a like-for-like basis. The inflationary impact of cost of goods also affected our ending inventory balance approximately 400 basis points. Based on our third quarter sales results and our current perspective on our aggregate spring/summer shipment schedule, we are comfortable with the currency of our inventory. We spent approximately $78 million on CapEx during the third quarter to support new retail stores, shop installations and infrastructure investments. For the last 12 months, our return on equity was 20%, and our return on investment was 40% due to the continued strength of our free cash flow generation and with confidence in our strategic agenda. As we announced in our press release this morning, our board of directors has authorized a new $250 million share repurchase program, bringing our aggregate current authorizations to approximately $719 million. In addition, the board has doubled the company's quarterly cash dividend payment to $0.20 per share from the current level of $0.10 per share. The board's actions enable us to enhance shareholder return even as we continue to invest in high-growth, high-margin opportunities. Our strong financial metrics were also recognized by Moody’s recently, who raised our corporate debt rating to A3 from BAA1 in January. Our results for the first nine months of fiscal 2011 clearly showcase the considerable performance of our entire organization. That momentum has been enhanced by the growing contribution from emerging product categories and channels and our disciplined operational management. Collectively, these dynamics have helped to fund the investments we are making and will continue to make in Asia and offset the initial signs of cost of goods inflation. Based on our strong year-to-date performance, we are obviously raising our profit outlook for the full year. In this morning's press release, we outlined our revised expectations for fiscal 2011, and I'd like to briefly review those with you now. For the full year period, we continue to expect revenues to increase at a low-double digit rate. Implicit in this outlook is an expectation for high-single digit growth in wholesale shipment and mid-teen growth for our Retail segment revenue. Based on our year-to-date performance, we now expect our full year operating margin rate to be approximately equal to fiscal 2010's level, which compares to our prior expectation of a 50 basis point decline. Our outlook continues to imply both increased pressure from cost of goods inflation and exchange rate pressure in the fourth quarter, as well as dilution related to the initial transition of the South Korea operations. In addition, we have some calendar shifts that impact the fourth quarter, most notably, that fiscal 2011 is a 52-week year versus fiscal 2010's 53 weeks and that the week between Christmas and New Year was in our fiscal third quarter this year versus the fiscal fourth quarter last year. Collectively, we estimate these shifts to account for approximately 10 full basis points in sales growth and about 200 basis points in operating profit margin. We currently expect a fiscal 2011 tax rate of approximately 32%. Our year-to-date results affirm the successful execution of our business strategies. We've demonstrated our ability to drive substantial profit flow-through on strong top line momentum, which speaks to the operational discipline of our team. We are proactive about pursuing market share opportunities and operational efficiencies as we consistently reinvest in the business to support our long-term strategic goal. Second half calendar shifts aside, we continue to seek encouraging underlying demand trends for our products. This includes early reads on fall, holiday 2011 orders, which suggest we are strengthening our leadership position in our more developed merchandise categories and gaining traction with our newer product categories. Around the world, customers are voting for the Ralph Lauren brand and the compelling value proposition of our high-quality luxury products. This gives us further confidence to continue reinvesting for future growth. And with that, I'll conclude the company's remarks and open the call up for your questions. Operator, would you assist us with that please?