Michael Nierenberg
Analyst · Bose George, KBW. Your line is open
Thanks, Mandy. Good morning everybody and thanks for joining us today. You know, some of this is all news obviously in light of our recent acquisition of the Citi MSRs and our equity raise where we went through some of the numbers. However, you know, we are extremely excited about the way that our company is positioned now and the results that we had last year for the company and for all of our shareholders. Last year was a good year for us and it was obviously a good year for shareholders. We continue to execute on our core business plan, which is to focus on MSRs, non-agency securities with call rights and servicer advances. Going forward, our strategy will be the same. I'll talk a little bit about servicer advances in a bit, as we've taken measures to protect the company against rising interest rates as it relates to the servicer advance business that we have. The way that we're set up, we have positioned our company and our portfolios for the current market environment, which should continue where we believe our portfolios should continue to perform extremely well. Last year we had a very active year, we grew our non-agency portfolio by 200%. We went from approximately $350 million at the end of 12/31/15 to a little bit north of - you know, give or take around $1 billion of investment – net investment value at the end of 2016. When you look at our portfolio today, based on mark-to-market, we haven't realized this. we have an unrealized gain in our portfolio of approximately $130 million. Our MSR portfolios for the year grew by $260 billion. This includes the City announcement. Again, trying to stay very focused on our core businesses, thinking about the current rate environment, and how we view the future. In our servicer advance segment of our business, we took all measures we could to lock in longer-term fixed-rate financings. So we converted a lot of our LIBOR financing to fixed rate financing and then we extended terms on those financings. Last year, we issued for example, five-year term financings, which has been the first time in quite some time when anybody has been able to issue that around the servicer advance population. So all in all, a very good year for the company, for our shareholders and I am now going to refer to the supplement which is been posted online. If you look at page 2, clearly a lot of numbers across the page, but just to take you through some of the metrics. 2016, we had a 44% total return. Our stock price was up 29%. Our year-over-year growth in GAAP earnings was up 61%. Our year-over-year growth in core earnings was up a 11%. Our ROE for 2016 was 17%. We deployed $1.5 billion of capital throughout the course of the year. Our book value increased by 7% and our lifetime dividends that we paid out for the company are currently at $1.3 billion. On the bottom left, if you take a look, we currently owned either excess MSRs or MSRs on approximately $600 billion of MSRs. Based on you know, our forecast for raise and you know, and the street forecast for raise in believing that the Fed will likely go two or three times this year, this asset continues to perform extremely well. We continue to execute around our call business. We currently have call rights on approximate $160 billion of the legacy non-agency market. We believe that to be about a third and we continue to expand our relationship with a diverse group of non-bank servicers which now include Nationstar, PHH, Ditech and Ocwen. Page 3, our financial performance for the fourth quarter, we had GAAP net income of $225 million or $0.90 per diluted share. Our core earnings were $155 million or $0.62 per diluted share. We paid a fourth quarter dividend of $0.46 per common share. For the full year, our GAAP net income was $504 million or $2.12 per diluted share. Our core earnings were $511 million or $2.14 per diluted share and our full year dividends totaled $1. 84 per common share. And then on the bottom right, you could see we try to give you comparison from '15 to '16, as you can see, we have thrown a couple numbers out. GAAP net income for 2015 was $269 million, 2016, $504 million, core earnings $389 million for '15 versus 511 for '16 and our dividends we paid $355 million in '15 versus $443 in '16. Page 4, what we tried to do here is just show you our trajectory around our dividends and how we, you know, how we think about the business. Again, we paid out $1.3 billion in total lifetime dividends since Q3 of 2013. We've taken our dividends from $0.35 to - in the first quarter of '17 we announced a dividend increase of $0.02 to currently we're paying a dividend of $0.48. Page 5, taking you through 2016 and some subsequent highlights. During and after Q4 I mentioned we acquired $267 billion UPB of mortgage servicing rights, the approximate purchase price of $2.2 billion. Some of those numbers will amortize a little bit lower depending upon when we actually settle these transactions. We purchased $72 billion of mortgage servicing rights from PHH, and we also purchased $97 billion of mortgage servicing rights from Citi. Again, both of those will settle in '16. We believe the City MSR purchase, we're hopeful that that will settle in the first quarter. We believe that the PHH MSR transaction will hopefully settle early in the second quarter. On our servicer advance business. As I mentioned earlier, we continue to term out and extend maturities converting our LIBOR financing to fixed-rate financing. For example, during the quarter, we refinanced $1.4 billion of floating rate debt with $500 million of three-year debt, $400 million of five-year debt and then we also did another $500 million of three-year debts. So we converted all this floating rate debt, which was shorter-term maturities in nature to three, four and five year maturity On a non-agency securities with call rights, in the fourth quarter we executed clean-up calls on 14 different deals totaling $417 million. We did our ninth non-agency securitization around our call business for $274 million and our net equity, as I pointed out earlier increased from $374 million at the end of Q4 of '15 to $960 million at the end of Q4 of '16. On the consumer side, our SpringCastle transaction, we completed a $1.7 billion refinancing of that in October '16. We took our cost of funds from 4.5 to 3.6. We released some liquidity. We lowered our effective expense rate by about $15 million on an annual basis. So again, that transaction continues to perform extremely well. And then post in Q1 of '17, we announced our Citi deal and we raise $834 million to help fund that for Citi MSR and other things that we're working on in our business. Page 6, what we wanted to do is just take you through a walk on our balance sheet, including the current transaction that we announced. If you take a look, the excess MSR bucket at the end of 12/31/16, these are all market values pre-debt. At the end of 12/31/16, we have $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion of excess MSRs, $659 million of MSRs. Our gross servicer advance business is $5.8 billion, I'll talk about that in a little bit how advanced balances have come down, since we did the HLSS Excess transaction, two years ago. Our residential securities with call rights are a little bit under $5 billion. Our residential loans, which we continue to acquire through our call transactions a little bit under $1 billion dollars. Our consumer loans which are now grossed up on our balance sheet are now at $1.8 billion. If you recall in '16 we acquired more equity, which caused us to gross up the entire transaction on our balance sheet and then we ended the quarter with $291 million in cash. To the right side, the walk on the MSR portfolio, $1.6 billion of excess and then if you look at our overall acquisition of MSRs, including that we're going to add approximately another $2.3 billion of MSRs, which totaled give or take about $3.8 billion to $3.9 billion. As I pointed out earlier, that number will be lower as by the time we settle the Citi and PHH transaction, it will have some amortization on that portfolio. And then we did our equity raise in Q1 of '17 which gives us a cash position of approximately $631 million gross, and there some reserves there, so I'll explain that in a bit. Page 7, again, this is just a walk on our cash, I think the more relevant if you take a look to the right side of the page, cash on hand 12/31/16 net of reserves is a $110 million, proceeds from the equity raise which were - which again these are net numbers of $239 million, the gross number is 834, but the net number when you add that up after taking out reserves and future funding is 239. Proceeds from our financing gives us investable liquidity there of a little – give or take around $400 million, then you add back the reserves on that, how you get to the $631 million number. On page 8, this is our balance sheet today, and again, these are net numbers now inclusive of our projected financing in and around these asset classes. So as of 12/31 pro forma adjusted excess MSR is $931 million, that includes existing debt and some anticipated debt financing. Our MSR bucket is one point, a little bit under $1.2 billion, again that's assuming roughly 50 LTV financing on MSRs, as you would gross that number up, so that number becomes roughly $2.2 billion, plus the gross number on our excess MSRs again that brings us to give or take about $3.8 billion. Our servicer advances, the team has done a fantastic job financing that business. We currently have equity of only $69 million in that business. Our residential securities and call rights $1.1 billion. And our residential and consumer loan portfolio is $324 million and again our cash number grows at $631 million. I'll now flip to page 10, just to talk a little bit about our MSR portfolios, in some of our recent searches, if you take a look on the upper left side of the page in Q4 we acquired roughly $65 billion of MSRs again, those are after amortization from both Walter and WCO. WCO was a REIT that was managed by Walter. We also acquired $13 billion of MSRs from FirstKey. We acquired some more flow and other things from Walter and another $5 billion and then two big ones we announced one at the end of December was the PHH, that was about $70 billion and then we announced the City deal. We think that these MSR transactions they were a little bit different from our legacy MSR transactions where we owned credit impaired, very, very seasoned MSRs. These MSRs on the on the City and the PHH are seasoned. They are not credit impaired. They are very good MSRs. They will continue to perform extremely well in arising – rising rate environment, and they also offer a great offsets to our call strategy which we'll talk about a little bit. Page 11 is our standard page, it just shows our excess portfolio, why its different, looking at our next CPRs, so I am going to, you know, I'll scan through that page. Page 12, our servicer advance business, just to give everybody a sense on that, current portfolio roughly $5.9 billion. When we acquired the HLSS transaction in 2015, the amount of advances we had on our balance sheet at that time were a little bit south of $9 billion, today we have $5.9 billion. The Ocwen portion of our servicer advance portfolio is $4.4 billion. So if you think about it, approximately 25% lower in two years. The Nationstar part of that - of our advance business is $1.5 billion, which is down almost 50% when we acquired that a couple years ago. So overall, as we go forward, I do believe servicer advance balances will continue to come down. What this really means for a business is that this will make our callable transactions more callable, as advances come down and delinquencies tend to trend lower and we'll talk about our call business in a bit. So on page 12, if you just looked at the right side of the page I mentioned this is a couple times, we refinanced a bunch of our debt from floating rate financing to fixed-rate financing, termed out debt from anywhere from three years to five years. And then on the left you can see the metrics on our advance business. Page 12 again, it just reiterates what we've done, today we have 98% of our advance that has maturities greater than one year and of that roughly 96% are fixed rate. We think that's prudent in light of the rising rate environment that we are currently in and with the Fed in play likely in margin throughout the course of the year. Page 14 is our, it shows the economics around our non-agency securities and how we – when we call deals and how we think about that. Page 15 talks about our non-agency securities and our call rights. We do believe over time that essentially each and every deal will get called. We think at the call date, that number will be approximately between something between $90 billion and $120 billion. So using a round number of a $100 billion averaging something two points is shown on that is roughly $2 billion, is the way that we think about it. Again, delinquencies continue to come down. Advances continue to come down. The key drivers on the right side of the page for us to call more deals. Our delinquencies coming down and servicer advances coming down. 16, is our consumer portfolio, again, I don't think you're going to see a lot of activity in and around that, now that we've termed that out. The quick metrics on that, two initial investments was roughly $297 million, that includes our equity purchase of this year. We received $583 million of distributions, plus the current valuation of $208 million, so on 297 we have a profit of approximately $500 million, which is roughly a 92% return, so- or IRR. A terrific transaction, obviously would like to do more of those. So we'll keep our eyes out for that. On 17 is just – we did some surveys of the markets as we think about interest rates, just to give you a couple of quick snippets. The 10 year treasury at the end of 2015 was 227 at the end of 2016 was roughly 245. If you think about it, we've had periods during '16 where the tenure treasury touched I believe something around 150. So there was a lot of volatility throughout the course of the year, the real net of it is the 10 year treasury was only up a little bit less than 20 basis points. Mortgage rates at the end of '15 was 401, at the end of '16 was 432. Non-agency mortgage spreads continue to do well. I mentioned earlier we have unrealized gains in that portfolio of approximately hundred $130 million and I then think the real mover in '16 versus '15 was the S&P, S&P closed '15 at 2044, '16 was 2239. So page 18, just talks a little bit, we get asked this question quite a bit, how do we think about our portfolio in various interest rates. I'll just take you through the slide real quick. Excess MSRs and MSRs clearly in a higher interest rate will do extremely well. Our new purchases in MSRs again, they are seasoned, very clean MSRs that will rise in value, should rates go up, if they don't go up it is a great offset to our call business because we issue fixed rate debt. So if rates rallied for example, our call population becomes worth more money. Lower interest rates, our excess will be fine. You know the newer production stuff will obviously suffer a little bit. Keep in mind on all of these MSRs we have, we captured agreements with our servicers and we are able to bring in recapture - third-party recapture agents in the event that recaptured numbers are not to our liking. Currently on this Fannie, Freddie populations our recapture percentages are about 30%. We underwrite this stuff somewhere between 25 and 30, so those numbers are very good. Non-agency securities and call rights, higher interest rates, again, just to talk about that, almost all of our portfolio was floating rate in nature. So you're going to get higher net interest income on the bond portfolios, when we issue fixed rate securities, you will have lower income. So lower interest rates will be better for the issuance of fixed rate debt around that population, higher interest rate will be better for the bond portfolio impacted negatively on the call rights stuff. Servicer advances we lock in, almost all of our financing is now fixed rate. So we think that's neutral and the consumer portfolio that's been outstanding for quite some time and we think that’s neutral. So overall this portfolio we think is set up in a great, great way for the future. The way that the forward curve is looking and we just need to execute around you know the investments that we made. Finally, the past - the next couple of pages. 2016 very good year, diversification of our servicing partners and that we now have 4 plus, some smaller ones. We continue to grow our MSR portfolio. We accelerate our call strategy. During the year we set out to be licensed in all 50 states. We're currently licensed in all 50 states. This gives us the ability to acquire MSRs and work with different servicing partners and then I mentioned earlier our different metrics around return in equity et cetera. 2017 looking forward, quite frankly it going to be more the same away from our servicer advance business. It’s executing on our MSRs, executing on our call strategy. Those two things should keep us pretty busy throughout the course of the year and hopefully pay - payoff extremely well for shareholders. So I will now turn the call back over to the operator. We'll open it up for questions.