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Pilgrim's Pride Corporation (PPC)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 30, 2015

$32.85

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Second Quarter 2015 Pilgrim's Pride Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. All participants will be in listen-only mode. At the company's request, this call is being recorded. Please note that the slides referred during today's call are available for download from the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.pilgrims.com. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dunham Winoto, Director of Investor Relations for Pilgrim's Pride. Please go ahead.

Dunham Winoto - Director, Investor Relations

Management

Good morning and thank you for joining us today as we review our operating results and financial results for the second quarter ended June 28, 2015. Yesterday afternoon, we issued a press release providing an overview of our financial performance for the quarter, including a reconciliation of any non-GAAP measures we may discuss. A copy of the release is available in the Investor Relations section of our website along with the slides we'll reference during this call. These items have also been filed as 8-Ks, and are available online at www.sec.gov. Presenting to you today are Bill Lovette, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Fábio Sandri, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin our prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone of our Safe Harbor statement. Today's call may contain certain forward-looking statements that represent our outlook and current expectations as of the day of this release. Other additional factors not anticipated by management may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in these forward-looking statements. Further information concerning those factors has been provided in today's press release, our 10-K, and our regular filings with the SEC. I'd like now turn the call over to Bill Lovette. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, everyone, thank you for joining us today. Our net revenue was $2.05 billion for the second quarter of 2015 resulting in an adjusted EBITDA of $426 million or 20.7% margins. Our net income of $242 million compared favorably to the same quarter of 2014 with a 27% year-over-year increase while adjusted earnings per share was $0.94 compared to $0.73 in the same quarter of last year. Our team has once again delivered strong results in quarter two despite the ongoing export challenges. It is important to note that we're…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. In the interest of allowing equal access, we request that you limit your questions to two then rejoin the queue for any follow-up. At this time we'll pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question comes from Farha Aslam with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Hi, good morning. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Farha.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Congratulations on a great quarter. Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: Thank you. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

And then, just a question on your buyback. You've announced the $150 million share buyback. How aggressively do you plan to implement it? And kind of what's the timing around that buyback? Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: Well, the buyback time is one year and we'll look into the open market at times and amounts considered appropriate by us at any given day. So there is no set target for any given day other than the $150 million during one year.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. So you want to do $150 million in one year. So you're going to take out about 10% of your float? Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: That's correct.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Perfect. And then, just as a follow-up, could you comment about your U.S. business? We've recently seen pricing that's been quite soft in the broader market. How do you think that's going to impact your business? Because I understand you do sell on contracts. And then how do you think you can offset it with your cost savings? William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, this is Bill. I'll start with that one. I believe what you're referring to is really the spot market, or (20:04). And I'll agree with you, it has declined significantly. For example, the cutout has gone down about 24%. If you look at any one component, it may be down 30%, 25% versus a year ago; wings actually are up 20%. USDA whole is down 12.5%, but a couple of things that I would remind you. First of all, we're not out on the spot market in any large degree. We have – most all of our chicken is sold in a given program and we have a different mix than the spot market might indicate. The other thing I would remind you of is feed cost is down year-over-year approximately $50 per ton; on broiler feed, it's about 17%. So from a margin perspective, despite the drop in the spot market, margins, while maybe weaker than a year ago, on any given day they're not down as indicative as the spot market might indicate. And I'll give you an example of our mix and how it plays. For the quarter, quarter two, if you just take the Composite Market Index, it was down about 13% while our mix was down only 4%. And given again the decrease in feed cost, that's what created that margin that we just reported. So, obviously, higher prices are better, but with our mix management, our portfolio strategy plus our agile pricing strategy, we believe our margins will remain much better than the average company in our business.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Great. Thank you so much. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Adam Samuelson - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Adam Samuelson - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Maybe continuing on the line of discussion that Farha started on there. Bill, as you look at the margin improvement that you've had in the last couple of years, you look at the mix strategy improvement that you've done, how – you just said we think we'll be better than the average chicken company. But help us think about what normalized margins for Pilgrim's actually mean moving forward, whether that's on a percent basis, on a dollars per head, a dollar per pound. How can – how are you thinking about that over time because this is a cyclical business. And maybe I'll leave it there first. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thanks, Adam, and you're correct. It is a cyclical business. We have a lot of factors beyond our control. Input cost, spot markets, high-path avian flu. And all of that combined makes it extremely difficult to tell you specifically what normalized margins could or should be in our industry. I would point out though that given what's happened the last two years to three years with competing meat prices with our own industry showing discipline in matching supply and demand, we believe that normalized margins, whatever they maybe, are structurally higher than they were 10 years ago or even seven years ago. And in addition to that, whatever the average margin is for the industry, I believe, we've demonstrated the last few quarters that our business model close off better margins than the average company. And we believe that spread…

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Kenneth Zaslow with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, everyone. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Ken. Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: Good morning, Ken.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

I guess my question is kind of tie on the similar ones. But you had a peer out there who has put out a target margin for next year, for 2016. I guess my question is really to this, do you have the same visibility as you would – is it possible to have that visibility that that company has? Are you different? Are you moving towards that type of visibility? And is there a period of time that you will be able to give some sort of outlook on a year-out basis, even in the environment that we're in over the last month or two months where prices have changed pretty markedly? Would that also change your outlook for 2016? William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Ken, I believe we have the same visibility in terms of publicly available information as any company obviously. And we use it to construct our plants. But we've recognized that we're in a commodity industry, it's cyclical, and there is so many things that affect margin that are beyond our control. We don't believe it's prudent for our business to talk about what margins might be in 12 months from now. I believe last summer, there was many predictions that we were at peak cycle in the business. And here we are 12 months later and we actually threw off higher margins than we did in quarter two of last year. So, again, that points to how difficult it is to think about projecting margins 12 months out.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

I guess I just – and I won't take up more time – is there a bottom to your margins? And I know that you've said that you'll outperform the industry. But is there a way, through the portfolio configuration that you have, that there's a limit to the downside to which you can actually always say – hey, look, the world can come close to an end, and we're still going to be able to have a margin structure of X, given that we have a balanced portfolio between formula-based contracts, Georgia dock-based contracts – all these contracts throughout the – in your portfolio. Then I'll leave it there. Thank you. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Great question, Ken. Couple of things I'll mention there. We went back recently and measured the delta of our performance as Fábio mentioned back in 2011 using 2010 as a base. Coming forward, we measured the absolute value of the improvements that we've made versus the average company. And if you add up all that value, it's something like a $0.5 billion. And so, we would point to the market conditions that were prevalent in the industry in 2011, which I believe were if not the worst year for margin in the industry – certainly one of the worst years. If we applied our business model to those conditions today, we would be profitable. So if it gets any worse than 2011, that's kind of a scary thought, I don't believe that's going to be the case anytime soon, but if it did, we would still be profitable.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Great. I appreciate it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Brett Hundley with BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Omar J. Mejias - BB&T Capital Markets: Good morning, gentlemen. This is actually Omar filling in for Brett. Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: Hi, Omar. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Omar J. Mejias - BB&T Capital Markets: My first question is related to bird flu potentially impacting Mexico in the fall. After looking at flyways and bird patterns related to migration, we have become increasingly concerned that it could be a problem this fall for Mexico. We think biosecurity is now strong there. So we just want to get your take in what could this potentially mean for PPC. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: There's has been prevalence of H7N3 avian influenza in Mexico since early 2012. Vaccinations has been ongoing for grandparents and breeder stock since that time. And today there's no evidence that the virus in Mexico has been eradicated. I would point out it's a different virus, it's a different disease, a different flu. And as far as we know, the virus that has been in the U.S. the past few months has not been detected in Mexico. We don't know for certain that that virus through migration of wild birds or any other means will make it to Mexico. But again, I would point out to the fact that Mexico has been dealing with another form of high-path avian influenza for over three years now. And the market has handled it rather well, consumption continues to grow, and producers have improved biosecurity since that time. And it has not had a long term devastating effect over the past three years although 2012 and again another pocket of infection I…

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Piken with the Cleveland Research. Please go ahead.

Michael Leith Piken - Cleveland Research Co. LLC

Analyst · the Cleveland Research. Please go ahead.

Yes, good morning. I just wanted to dig into the pullet numbers a little bit more closely and sort of get your perspective on how much of the pullet flock is moving to Mexico with the pullet eggs after they're hatched, as well as how much is being used to replace some of the older breeders, versus how much is actual expansion. Thanks. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, again, we would point to several things that are indicative, from the increase in pullet placements and the growth of the breeder flock. We believe that there is a breed change going on inside the U.S. as more processors move to the larger birds, they move to a different breeder which is less productive in terms of chicks per hundred hens housed. And we believe that that accounts for about a 1% supply growth in the breeder flock. We also believe that over the past year, we've seen something in the order of 3% supply growth attributable to the growth of exports of hatching eggs going to Mexico. And then the balance of the growth number is taken up in what we've seen by 2% to 3% increase in head placement slaughtered for U.S. production. We believe going forward into 2016, that we could see another 2% to 3% increase in head placement slaughtered 2016 over 2015, but we don't see that there is much risk for appreciably more than that.

Michael Leith Piken - Cleveland Research Co. LLC

Analyst · the Cleveland Research. Please go ahead.

Okay, great. And then, in terms of your own production, could you give us any sort of color in terms of what we should expect in terms of your volume for 2015, and if you have a read on 2016, both – if you could break it out between the U.S. and Mexico, either including the Tyson assets you recently acquired or excluding that, that would be helpful. Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: Yeah, Michael, we expect to growth in line with the market. With the acquisition in Mexico, that will add $650 million roughly in terms of revenues for us that's just the acquisition in Mexico. But in U.S. and on our current operation in Mexico, we expect to grow in line with the market.

Michael Leith Piken - Cleveland Research Co. LLC

Analyst · the Cleveland Research. Please go ahead.

Okay, thank you very much. Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Bryan Hunt with Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.

Bryan C. Hunt - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.

Thank you for your time, just two questions. Bill and Fábio, I was wondering – if you look back to 2011 in other markets where we've seen supply growth outpace demand, or at least, like we've seen prices come down on the cutout values that you quoted earlier, Bill, oftentimes, customers, whether they're under contract or not, come back and push back pretty hard on pricing. Can you talk about – one, are you experiencing that; and two, have you had any of your contractual customers come back and try to renegotiate with you given the price movement in the last six weeks? William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Bryan specific to your question, no, we have not. I would remind you, back in 2011, we implemented a strategy where we focused on our key customers and we build our portfolio that we've been talking around about rather – around those demands from the key customers. And we have relationships with those key customers such that our business with them is much more than just price. We deliver a lot of value beyond price, a lot of value actually beyond the product itself. And for those reasons prices again it's not the most important thing in many cases and the relationship with our key customers.

Bryan C. Hunt - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.

Great. And then, my next question is around avian influenza. You all mentioned immunization is down in Mexico. The USDA has developed a product in the United States, which protects birds from the current virus that has been spreading. And I think there was a conference last week discussing the potential to use the product in the United States on the flock. Can you talk about whether, one, you had any discussions with your customers around potentially immunizing your birds, and what the reactions may be to such an attempt? William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: We have not had discussions directly with our customers about vaccination. We have discussed it internally; we had discussions with APHIS, a branch of USDA that regulates that. And what we've said is we're supportive of limited and strictly controlled vaccination once a vaccine is developed and is proven effective, which from what I understand we're getting closer, but don't believe that there has been a vaccination that's been approved just yet for that. And again, we believe it can be a part and only part of an effective eradication plan. The downside to vaccination is, in the past, when some countries that vaccinated their importing customers from those countries have banned exports from the vaccinating country to that importing country. And we certainly don't want or don't desire for anymore bans to occur because of vaccination in the U.S. And that's why we believe if it's limited in terms of geography and strictly controlled then it can be a part, but only a part of an affective eradication plan. We've had high-path avian influenza in this country a couple of times. And we dealt with it very effectively by eradicating the disease. And again, we believe that total eradication is really the only way to minimize or mitigate the risk long-term and that's what we're in favor of.

Bryan C. Hunt - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.

And my last question is – looking at the M&A environment, can you just talk in general what you're seeing in terms of multiples of businesses that are for sale out there? I know you all have been very disciplined in the past in terms of acquisition targets and multiples you're willing to pay. Has that changed at all given your strong free cash flow generation? I guess you're communicating, with the stock buyback, you'd rather buy your own company than buy someone else's. But again, can you discuss M&A? Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: No I think the multiple change as the market expectations changed as well. But the multiple – is not the most important thing for us. What we evaluate is the amount of synergies and the operational improvements we can achieve with the acquisition of that target. So the multiple of course is only a consequence of what we are willing to pay. And that's, again multiples have changed with the expectations in the market. So what we're seeing is there are targets out there and we are pursuing our growth strategy.

Bryan C. Hunt - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.

Well, very good. I appreciate your time. And best of luck next quarter. Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: Thank you. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you Bryan.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Akshay Jagdale with KeyBanc Capital. Please go ahead.

Lubi John Kutua - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital. Please go ahead.

Hi good morning. This is actually Lubi filling in for Akshay. I wanted to ask a question, a follow-up question, to one that was asked a little bit earlier. I'm just curious, how much is your own production in the U.S. up year-to-date? I mean, I know you guys provide details on the amount of pounds you sold. But I'm wondering if there's a meaningful difference between pounds produced versus pounds sold. And the reason I ask is because the increase in production so far this year for the industry as a whole, which I believe is around 5% or so. It just seems to be much higher, I think, than what yourselves and Tyson have indicated you guys are increasing production by, which – and obviously, given the fact that Pilgrim's and Tyson make up a significant portion of the industry's volume, I mean, it would just seem that other players in the industry have increased their own production pretty significantly, which I guess kind of calls into question the level of discipline that we're seeing in the industry right now. So I'm just curious to get your thoughts on that. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Couple of things Lubi. We had two of our largest plants that were down for a number of days during the quarter to make some capital improvement projects as we've alluded to before. And that definitely affected our volume in the quarter. As Fábio said earlier, it's our desire to grow production and market share while in line with our current share and with the market. But I'd also point out that we do have a buyer growth strategy for our prepared foods business. When the market prices are such that it's financially better for us to buy the raw material on the open market for our prepared foods business, that's exactly what we'll do. And I expect that there may be an opportunity in the future to purchase more of that on the open market. In that case we would not grow and slaughter the bird, but we would buy the components from other company. Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: Our pounds produced and sold this quarter was marginally higher than the same quarter last year. And they are working in line as you can see because our inventories have not increased. So all the pounds sold and produced were in line.

Lubi John Kutua - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital. Please go ahead.

Okay, that's helpful. And then, my second question is just in terms of pricing, so there's been some softness, as you alluded to earlier. But Georgia Dock prices seem to have held up pretty well. So I'm just curious if you could talk a little bit about maybe what's driving that. And then, in your view, do you see some risk to Georgia Dock prices as – with the potential of pork prices coming down further at retail? Thank you. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So Georgia Dock market is reflective of whole birds. And you have a mix of small whole birds and medium sized whole birds in that mix. And we believe that it's the value of all those birds combined that it has been supported for keeping that price relatively high. And we believe especially given the actual decline in the number head of small bird production this year over last and we don't see that's going to grow significantly in the future. We believe that's Georgia Dock will continue to be supportive by the demand for that product.

Lubi John Kutua - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital. Please go ahead.

Okay, thank you. I'll pass it on.

Operator

Operator

That concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Bill Lovette for closing remarks. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you. I believe again the second half of 2015, we remain optimistic our portfolio will create the best opportunities for us to deliver a more consistent result regardless of market conditions. At the same time, we continue to be vigilant against the potential of avian influenza on our flocks as we get closer to return of migratory birds flying southwards. We would like to thank our team members, customers, and other interested parties in our company, and I ask you to continue to follow our journey to become the best managed and most respected chicken company in the world. Thank you all for joining us today.

Operator

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.