Earnings Labs

Pilgrim's Pride Corporation (PPC)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 29, 2015

$32.85

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2015 Pilgrim's Pride Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. All participants will be in listen-only mode. At the company's request, this call is being recorded. Please note that the slides referenced during today's call are available for download from the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.pilgrims.com. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dunham Winoto, Director of Investor Relations for Pilgrim's Pride. Please go ahead.

Dunham Winoto - Director, Investor Relations

Management

Thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today as we review our operating and financial results for the third quarter ended September 27, 2015. Yesterday afternoon, we issued a press release providing an overview of our financial performance for the quarter, including a reconciliation of any non-GAAP measures we may discuss. A copy of this release is available in the Investor Relations section of our website along with the slides we'll reference during this call. These items have also been filed as 8-Ks, and are available online at www.sec.gov. Presenting to you today are Bill Lovette, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Fábio Sandri, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin our prepared remarks, I'd like to remind everyone of our Safe Harbor statement. Today's call may contain certain forward-looking statements that represent our outlook and current expectations as of the day of this release. Other additional factors not anticipated by management may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in these forward-looking statements. Further information concerning those factors has been provided in today's press release, our 10-K, and our regular filings with the SEC. I'd like now turn the call over to Bill Lovette. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Dunham, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Our net revenue was $2.11 billion for the third quarter of 2015, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA of $274 million or 13% margins. Our net income was $137 million as compared to $256 million in the same quarter of 2014, with an adjusted earnings per share of $0.58 cents compared to $1.01 in the same quarter last year. Our team delivered solid Q3 results despite ongoing challenges in the export markets. Additionally, our results were also impacted by…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now being the question-and-answer session. The first question comes from Farha Aslam with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Hi, good morning. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Farha.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Question on pricing as you enter the contracting season, could you share with us kind of what you're seeing in terms of pricing for both the food service and the retail market for next year? William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: So, on the program business, Farha, that we're talking to our key customers about, I'm very encouraged with the situation that we're moving into. And that's precisely why that over the past four years, we've been focusing on our key customers' needs because our strategies, simply put, is where we lineup what we have in terms of both product, resources and added value to our key customers and targeted at their specific needs and that's how we've created more stability in our margins. And so with – what we've talked to customers about so far, I'm extremely encouraged by what we're seeing today, especially contrasting that what the commodity pricing is. So -

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

That's helpful. And then as my follow-up, what do you see in terms of the M&A outlook? Do you see anything imminent? What does your pipeline look like? And I didn't catch it if you had told us. How many shares did you buy back during the quarter? And are you still committed to completing the $150 million in the first year? Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: Yeah, on the share buyback, Farha, we bought a third or $49 million during the quarter, which is roughly 2 million shares. We are committed to the $150 million. In terms of the landscape on M&A, we are seeing targets out there like we're mentioning we have our dual track, where we look at companies that can complement our portfolio of branded products – products in our geography and we are seeing targets out there and we will measure those targets to our value creation standards.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Adam Samuelson - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Yes. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Adam Samuelson - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Maybe to start, and Bill, in the prepared remarks you alluded to significantly improved margins today relative to 2011, the last time chicken cutout was at current levels. And I'm wondering, if we can maybe think about a bridge there, because if you go back four years, I mean feed costs were at least – feed costs today are probably 35%, 40% lower than they were in 2011. And you've implemented a – you kind of executed against the $850 million annualized cost savings and cost improvement, margin improvement plan. And I'm wondering if we could think about how to bridge the margin performance 2011 to today in the third quarter given those two dynamics, because it would seem that the combination of the feed cost reductions that you've had over the last four years as well as those cost improvement actions would suggest that your margins in the third quarter still have been higher than they were. And I'm wondering if you could help there. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. I mean, directionally that you are absolutely right, Adam. And I'll talk about the major buckets and Fábio can fill in with more specifics. But if you think about it, you mentioned the feed cost difference. That's true but more impactful is our operational improvements and that's what we've been talking about in the last four years and reducing our operational cost, improving our yields so that's sort of another bucket. And then the other bucket, which probably has…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Kenneth Zaslow with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Hey. Good morning, everyone. Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: Good morning, Ken.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

So I have a couple of questions. When I look at your peers, there is one out there in particular that's been vocal about 9% EBIT margin out there. My question is will you be able to outperform that 9% given your business mix and your cost savings? How do you think about that? William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, the way we think about it, Ken, is no different than we've been talking for really the last two years to three years, and that is over a long period of time we believe that our earnings will be higher and more stable than the average chicken company. And we still stick to that. We've got a great balanced portfolio that allows us, as Fábio said, to take advantage of high commodity prices, and on the down cycle, protects us against the lows. And one thing in particular that I attempted to emphasize in the prepared remarks is, in our prepared food business, which we intend to grow profitably, we employ a buy-versus-grow strategy. So when commodity prices for raw materials go below cost of production, then we're going to buy those raw materials from the open market to convert and to further process in prepared foods products and that also gives us more protection against these cyclical pricing seasons.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Because I'm not debating that you're going to be – I think at this point, I think, nobody is out there who thinks that you're not above average. I think you've clearly and unhesitatingly put yourself away from the average. My question more is can you be in the top tier in a down market? And can you hold your margins, I guess is my, kind of, thinking. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. I mean, we're still – we've said this, we're still in a cyclical business but, we think we'll be a top tier company in the industry and all cycles, all points in the cycle.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Okay. My second question – hello? William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hello, yes, go ahead please.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Yeah. My second question is you said that the – just in terms of the pricing environment, you said that the supply is constrained, which we agree with you but you said the demand is strong. So which part is creating the weakness in the pricing? I'm just trying to figure – kind of figure out which side of it is both. The supply seems contained and you said the demand still seems robust. So – but yet the pricing has come in. So just trying to, again, figure out what exactly is causing the pricing. Is it just simply the export markets and if that cleans up, we would be off to the races? William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. So I think export markets definitely has impacted pricing. I think total exports are down about 20% and that's definitely had an impact. We're seeing more leg quarters, more whole legs, even more boneless leg meats sold domestically and that puts some pressure on the complex. We also see more pork available especially at retail. I think pork futures at retail are up about 16% this year. And we noticed in July a significant increase in pork futures at retail and a decline for chicken futures. But even with that said, we see the retail demand for chicken very strong. We continue to innovate in that category, move away from just a situation with customers where price is the only part of the discussion. And we think that's helped us in particular. So those are the two main factors, Ken, is the export situation, more pork on the market and some more chicken on the domestic market as well. Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: Ken, I'll just add that we need to segment…

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Okay. Thank you very much. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: You're welcome. Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: Thanks, Ken.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Brett Hundley with BB&T Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Brett Michael Hundley - BB&T Capital Markets: Hey, good morning, guys. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning. Brett Michael Hundley - BB&T Capital Markets: Fábio, just a quick housekeeping question. I saw the feed cost change year-on-year in the U.S. market, but I didn't see you guys lift it for Mexico in the Q. Can you give us the total feed cost change year-on-year in dollars? Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: Year-over-year our live cost is $60 million lower than the same quarter of 2014. Brett Michael Hundley - BB&T Capital Markets: I'm sorry, down $60 million? Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: Yeah, there is a $60 million benefit year-over-year. Brett Michael Hundley - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay. All right. Thank you. And then, Bill, I just had two questions for you. The first was that – is there a good proxy for us to sort of think about as far as percentage of big bird business out there that might be spot? In other words, do you think I would be way off base or way out of ballpark here in thinking that maybe about 30% of big bird business is transacted on the spot market? So, that's the first part of my question. And then secondly, given the work that you guys have done and you just talked about trying to move more towards program business, is there any potential that you see in Q4 here for any of your big bird plans to be in the red? William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: On the component of what is spot versus program, I don't know exactly, Brett, but what you said…

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Piken with Cleveland Research. Please go ahead.

Michael Leith Piken - Cleveland Research Co. LLC

Analyst · Cleveland Research. Please go ahead.

Yeah, good morning. Thanks for the question. My first question is regarding kind of the buy-versus-grow. Just wanted to see to what extent you guys have flexibility to shift to a buy-versus-grow strategy and how much breast meat you could potentially buy in the open market? William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Michael, we can buy virtually all of the need that we have on breast meat, tenders, even some of the wings if the price of that raw material is such that it's more profitable for us to do so. We set up our model that way and we are prepared to do so.

Michael Leith Piken - Cleveland Research Co. LLC

Analyst · Cleveland Research. Please go ahead.

Okay, great. And then as you look at some of the recent egg set data and obviously they've been trending down in some of the recent weeks year-on-year, is this almost all exclusively coming from big bird deboners or are you guys taking any cuts in any of the other parts in small bird during the retail tray pack? William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: We believe it's across the board actually. We've seen a lot more conversions this year, 2015, of smaller and medium sized birds going into the large bird category. So I think just by definition we've seen a lot of cuts coming in that segment. Especially I believe if producers are relying on the spot market that's probably where you've seen more of the cuts than other segments.

Michael Leith Piken - Cleveland Research Co. LLC

Analyst · Cleveland Research. Please go ahead.

Perfect. Thanks a lot. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Bryan Hunt with Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.

Bryan C. Hunt - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.

Thank you for your time this morning. Bill, I was wondering if you can quantify some cost information for me. When you look at stepped up security expenses going into the back half of the year as well as the plant maintenance costs that seem to be discussed in your prepared statements, could you talk about individually those two cost items as well as whether you see ongoing cost or additional costs from maintenance and AI security going into next year? William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, so I think the AI security cost is really not really significant or material. We were already doing a lot of that. We just enhanced our training. We put more foot baths at all of our farms. We've installed truck spray washes where needed. But it's – still it's been really immaterial. On the two operations that we mentioned in the prepared remarks, one was a really a complete retooling of one of our largest plants, all the way from the live receiving through pick and kill and kill and pick and eviscerating and then we also installed a dark meat deboning in that operation. And so that was that. We had some structural issues at our largest operation has caused us some unplanned downtime and also some higher maintenance expenses. That's behind us. In Q4, as we mentioned we're taking another plant that is really dedicated for a key customer and we are retooling it as well to meet the needs of that key customer and it's down actually as we speak and will be coming back up here in the coming days.

Bryan C. Hunt - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.

Could you quantify what that expense was in Q3 and what it might be in Q4 and whether those are added back to EBITDA? William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, in Q3 it was about $30 million. I don't believe it will be all that significant in Q4 though. Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: It's a combination of expenses and loss of business interruption let's say.

Bryan C. Hunt - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.

And that is not added back to EBITDA on your calculations? Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: That will go through to EBITDA in Q3, but (48:25). William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: It was not added back, no, it was not in the adjusted numbers, no, it just won't.

Bryan C. Hunt - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.

Not in adjusted number? Okay, great. And my follow-up question after covering expenses, when you look at your potential growth or the USDA's potential growth for the industry next year, 2% to 3%, in your opinion based, on the capacity expansion that you've heard from Sanderson and Koch and , (48:53) and I don't know if there is anybody else that have announced capital projects for 2016, do you think those numbers correlate well? Or is there potential to – we're running full today, is there potential to exceed that 2% to 3% in your opinion? Thanks. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah, no, I think they correlate well. And if you just step back and consider this year, we saw more conversions to the large bird segment this year and that's why we saw more of the component coming from weight gain as opposed to head place. And I think we're going to finish the year at around 4.5% more in 2015 over 2014. We don't believe that we'll see the same rate of conversions to the big bird category next year, and so we're going to be more reliant on head placed increase without that weight increase component. And that's what gets us to the 2% to 3%. Fábio Sandri - Chief Financial Officer: I think also the two plants that you mentioned are already operational. So, the increase for next year is going to be not as big as just adding from new plant.

Bryan C. Hunt - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.

Very good. I appreciate your time. Thank you. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Hale Holden with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Hale Holden - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead.

Thanks for taking the call. I just had two quick ones. What do you think about the AI impact on exports? I was wondering if you could give any color on when you thought some of those markets might open back up? And on the back of that, when they open up, how long it would take to get through some of the leg inventory that's in freezers right now? William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. So, I really don't have a great read on timing except what we know is that – I believe the last infection was June, 17. Typically it's around six months from the last break by the time you get all of the negotiations and regulatory things behind. So, it could be toward the end of the year, it's possible. But I don't really know that for sure. And on the inventory, inventory is definitely up versus the last couple of years. But I don't think it's overly burdensome either. So, I don't think it's an extended time that's all that burden.

Hale Holden - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead.

Got it. And then, Bill, on your comments on the industry kind of being at full production capacity with no production coming over the next two years to three years, or it would take awhile to get new plants up to make a difference. How do you view PPC's role in that? Is it something that you would think about to increase capacity? Or would you let others in the industry do it? William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: We're focused on our key customers. If we see some of our key customers needing more product then we're going to do what's best for taking care of those customers and taking care of our business.

Hale Holden - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead.

All right, appreciate the time. Thank you. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Bill Lovette for closing remarks. William W. Lovette - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you. As we get closer to the end of 2015, we remain committed to creating and maximizing shareholder value while retaining our financial discipline and flexibility. With our portfolio approach and our high growth strategy in place, we are excited about our prospects for 2016 and believe industry supply and demand should remain in relative balance. While we continue to focus on factors within our control, we have the confidence that our strategies will generate the best opportunities to deliver more consistent results for us regardless of specific market conditions. I would like to thank our team members and customers and shareholders as always and appreciate your interest in our company. Thank you for joining us today.

Operator

Operator

This conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.