Ron H. Wirahadiraksa
Analyst · JPMorgan
Thank you, Frans. Good morning, and welcome to all of you on the call. I will begin by giving you some color on the developments in the markets we serve and then walk you through the financial performance for the third quarter. Let me start with Healthcare, where the U.S. government shutdown further added to the uncertain environment, which is likely to cause delays in purchasing decisions. We expect the related market uncertainties to continue into the next month. Healthcare construction is forecasted to decline by 2% in 2013, and patient procedure volume growth expectations remain unchanged in the low-single-digit range. In Europe, the Healthcare market remains soft in most countries, including in larger markets such as Germany and France. We expect that this trend will not significantly change for the remainder of the year. In the growth geographies, the ASEAN region is expected to come in at a mid-single-digit growth rate, and China continued to show solid growth during the third quarter of 2013. On the other hand, Middle East and Turkey is expected to come in at the same level as last year. Russia continued to have low tender activity, which resulted in low market momentum in the third quarter. Overall, we estimate the Healthcare market growth to be in the low-single-digit range for the whole year. The consumer markets in Q3 continued to follow the fluctuating patterns seen in the overall economy. Eurozone real GDP growth continues to show a weak trend. Unemployment remains high at 12%, with Spain and Greece's unemployment rates still over 26%. The EU consumer confidence index has been improving since January 2013, with Germany poised for modest economic growth. Total retail sales volume shows an increasing year-over-year trend since the beginning of 2013. The U.S. picture for consumer markets improved during Q3, with the August unemployment rate falling slightly to 7.3% and improved August retail sales. They exclude motor vehicles and parts dealers. The August U.S. consumer confidence index was positive. In China, year-over-year, the growth rate for retail sales has improved since the beginning of the year. In Brazil, the increasing consumer price index, which led to an erosion of consumer confidence, has stabilized in the last 12 months -- sorry, in the last 2 months. Across geographies, the Lighting market in Q3 2013 was driven by the increased adoption of LED-based lighting and remains on track for low-single-digit growth in 2013. In Western Europe, ongoing LED-ification and weak but improving macroeconomic fundamentals were the main drivers of the Lighting market. The Eurozone consensus GDP growth forecast for 2013 was raised slightly, although still pointing to negative growth. The economy remains fragile and is likely to be slow going into 2014. This is also reflected in growth expectations for the construction market, where a very modest level of growth is foreseen for 2014. In Q3 2013, consensus forecasts now estimate 1.6% year-on-year GDP growth for the U.S., rising to 2.3% for Q4 2013. Driven by new-builds of residential properties, growth in the U.S. construction market in Q3 2013 picked up slightly compared to Q2 2013. The Architecture Billings Index in August reflected the strongest growth in activity in the last 6 months. Following 2 quarters of weaker-than-expected growth, the Chinese economy is showing signs of stabilization, as indicated by recent data releases as well as stabilizing consensus GDP forecasts for 2013. In absolute terms, growth rates remained healthy, which is reflected in the Lighting market growth. The Lighting market remains driven by the migration to LED, both in lamps and luminaires. Notwithstanding a year-on-year decline in the EMEA region, global light vehicle production showed continued year-on-year growth in Q3 2013 and is still trending towards low-single-digit growth in 2013. Let me now move to the Philips Group results for the third quarter of 2013. As of the first quarter of this year, we reported profit and loss on the Audio, Video, Multimedia and Accessories business under discontinued operations, and the net assets for the business in the balance sheet on the line, assets held for sale. The cash flow of the Audio, Video, Multimedia and Accessories business is reported under cash flow from discontinued operations. Therefore, all commentary that will follow in terms of sales, earnings at Philips Group level and Consumer Lifestyle sector level, does not include Audio, Video, Multimedia and Accessories-related information. Also, when I refer to adjusted EBITA on this call, this represents EBITA excluding restructuring, acquisition-related charges and other charges and gains above EUR 20 million. Comparable sales in the third quarter grew by 3% when adjusted for currency and portfolio changes. Comparable sales in our growth geographies increased double digits in the third quarter. Our growth geographies are defined as all markets, excluding the U.S., Canada, Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Japan and Israel. Sales from these growth geographies increased to 37% of group revenues compared to 35% for Q3 last year. On a comparable basis, sales in North America declined by low-single digits in the quarter. Healthcare was impacted by lower order intake in the previous quarters, as sentiment was affected by the uncertain environment that I have referred to earlier. Consumer Lifestyle sales remained strong and grew high-single digits, while Lighting sales declined, mainly due to lower sales for Professional Lighting Solutions. Group sales in Western Europe saw a decline in comparable sales of 1% in the quarter, mainly due to Lighting. In the other mature geographies, the group saw a 1% decrease in comparable sales, mainly due to Lighting in Japan. Reported EBITA was EUR 562 million or 10% of sales, which is EUR 196 million higher than the EUR 366 million or 6.3% of sales reported for Q3 last year. The EBITA for Q3 2013 included a pension settlement loss of EUR 31 million. This loss is related to a lump sum offering to former employees enrolled in our U.S. pension plan and was caused by an increase in discount rates between the offering and the settlement date. Restructuring and acquisition-related charges in Q3 2013 were EUR 35 million lower than Q3 2012. Adjusted EBITA was EUR 634 million or 11.3% of sales in the quarter, compared to EUR 476 million or 8.2% for Q3 2012. The 33% improvement in the adjusted EBITA was driven by improved operational performance in all sectors. I will elaborate on this a bit later as I go through the details on the sectors. Net income amounted to EUR 281 million, a year-on-year increase of EUR 176 million. Free cash flow in the quarter was lower than Q3 2012 by EUR 293 million, despite higher earnings in the quarter. There were 4 main contributing factors: About 1/3 was due to a lower improvement in the quarter of inventory compared to last year, although overall inventories were lower than last year. The rest was mainly due to a reduction in provisions, primarily due to payment of restructuring costs in Q3, which were provided for earlier; a higher payout of taxes compared to last year; and timing differences in receivables in the quarter. With that summary, let me know walk you through the performance of each of our businesses during Q3, starting with our Healthcare businesses. Currency-comparable equipment order intake decreased 2% in Q3 2013 compared to Q3 2012. Order intake in North America declined by 2%. As Frans mentioned, we launched our new ultrasound system range, EPIQ, in September, which did impact order intake in North America as our customers waited for the launch of the new product family. Excluding ultrasound, order intake in North America was up by 2%. Europe order intake declined by 7% in the quarter. We had mentioned in Q3 last year that we then had 2 large and multiyear deals. Excluding those deals, comparable order intake in Europe is actually up by mid-single digits. China and India recorded strong double-digit growth in order intake in the quarter. However, we saw declines in Russia, Central Asia and the ASEAN region, which led to a low-single-digit decline in order intake for the growth geographies. The decline in Russia was caused primarily due to lower tender activity. In the other mature geographies, order intake grew in the quarter by high-single digits, led by Japan and Korea. Excluding the large deals in Europe, overall intake -- order intake for Healthcare is flat for the quarter. Imaging Systems order intake increased low-single digits, while Patient Care & Clinical Informatics decreased by 7%. Patient Care & Clinical Informatics had a 15% increase last year due to the large deals. On a currency and portfolio comparable basis, Healthcare's year-on-year sales were flat in Q3 2013. Growth in consumer services from Healthcare and Patient Care & Clinical Informatics was offset by a decline in Imaging Systems. Comparable sales in the growth geographies increased 3% in the quarter. Comparable sales in China grew by double digits in the third quarter of 2013, while sales in LATAM grew high single digit. Double-digit declines in Russia, the Middle East and Turkey impacted growth in the quarter. Comparable sales in Europe were flat, with Southern Europe declining by mid-single digits and the Rest of Europe growing by low-single digits. Sales in North America declined low-single digits in the quarter. Healthcare reported a third quarter EBITA of EUR 329 million, which is 14.6% of sales. The adjusted EBITA amounted to EUR 330 million or 14.6% of sales, which is 200 basis points higher than the adjusted EBITA in the same period of last year. Accelerate!-driven productivity improvements to the overall cost base, as well as the reduced bill of materials leading to higher gross margins, resulted in the improved earnings for the quarter despite a flat top line. Consumer Lifestyle comparable sales grew by 9% compared to Q3 of last year, this especially impressive as it is on the back of 10% comparable growth in Q3 of last year. The growth geographies had a comparable sales increase of 16% in the quarter, led by Russia, China, the Middle East, Turkey, Central and Eastern Europe, India and the LATAM region. Sales in North America grew high-single digits, driven by double-digit growth in Health & Wellness, while comparable sales in Europe were flat. Our other mature markets recorded a 15% growth in the quarter, with very strong growth in Japan. EBITA for the quarter was EUR 116 million or 10.6% of sales. Adjusted EBITA for the sector for Q3 2013 was EUR 121 million in the quarter or 11.1% of sales compared to EUR 85 million or 8.1% of sales for the third quarter of 2012. The improvement in adjusted EBITA was driven by operating leverage through higher sales, gross margin improvement, as well as the elimination of stranded costs related to the Television business, which were part of the Q3 2012 results. For the Audio, Video, Multimedia and Accessories business, which, as explained earlier, is reported in discontinued operations, the net income amounted to EUR 10 million in Q3 2013, which is the same as Q3 2012. On Page 17 of the press release, we have provided a simple reconciliation of the results of this business. In Lighting, comparable sales were up 3% in the quarter compared to Q3 of last year. In our growth geographies, sales increased on a comparable basis by double digits. On a more granular basis, sales in the LATAM region, India, the Middle East, Turkey and the ASEAN region all grew double digits. Europe sales were down 2%, while North America recorded low-single-digit sales decline in the quarter, which is in part related to the transformation taking place in our organization there. We continue to see strong sales of our LED products, with growth of 33% compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Light Sources & Electronics, Lumileds and Automotive all recorded year-on-year growth, while Professional Lighting Solutions and Consumer Luminaires declined low-single digits. The reported EBITA for Lighting was EUR 177 million or 8.5% of sales, which is a significant improvement compared to the EUR 32 million or 1.5% of sales in the third quarter of 2012. The EBITA for Q3 2013 included EUR 66 million less restructuring and other charges compared to Q3 2012. Adjusted EBITA was EUR 230 million or 10.2% of sales, a significant increase compared to the EUR 134 million in the third quarter of 2012. The improvement was driven by improved gross margins, including reductions in the bill of materials, overhead cost savings, as well as an improved mix. The mix improved in Lumileds, with sales of the newly-designed products now positively impacting margins, leading to improved operational results. The mix in Professional Lighting Solutions also improved, with the growth of LED-based products resulting in a better operational performance in the quarter. Reported EBITA for Innovation, Group & Services amounted to a net cost of EUR 60 million compared to a net cost of EUR 49 million in Q3 2012. As I have indicated during the earnings call of Q2 this year and in the Capital Markets Day in September, the EBITA for Q3 2013 included a pension settlement loss of EUR 31 million. This loss, as I said earlier, is related to a lump sum offering to former employees enrolled in our U.S. pension plan and was caused by an increase in the discount rates between the offering and the settlement date. Excluding this item, the lower net cost improved by EUR 21 million, mainly from lower litigation costs and higher IP royalties. Inventory as a percentage of sales improved by 40 basis points to 16.5% at the end of Q3 2013 compared to 16.9% in Q3 2012. There was a significant reduction in Healthcare, where inventory as a percentage of sales declined by 120 basis points compared to the end of Q3 2012. Customer Services decreased inventory by 280 basis points, while Imaging Systems, Patient Care & Clinical Informatics, and Home Healthcare Solutions reduced inventory by 40, 70 and 60 basis points, respectively. Consumer Lifestyle increased its inventories as a percent of sales by 30 points at the end of Q3 2013. In Lighting, inventory as a percentage of sales improved by 20 basis points compared to the end of Q3 2012, with Lumileds down by 130 basis points and Professional Lighting Solutions and Light Sources & Electronics inventory down by 40 basis points each. Return on invested capital at the end of Q3 2013 improved to 7.7% from 6.1% in the previous quarter. Excluding the European Commission fine in Q4 2012, the return on invested capital increased from 9.2% in Q2 2013 to 10.7% at the end of Q3 2013. The discount rate for the group is 9%. The increase in ROIC was largely due to effects of higher earnings and improved working capital management. As far as capital allocation is concerned, we have commenced our EUR 1.5 billion share buyback program. As you are aware, we have completed the earlier program at the end of Q2 2013. Ladies and gentlemen, let me briefly summarize before opening the line to questions. The improved results for the third quarter of 2013 demonstrate further progress on our path towards our 2013 financial targets. Though various headwinds in the form of economic uncertainties, interest changes affecting our pension cost, changes in pension accounting, for example, IAS 19R impacting our EBITA, as well as the recent volatility in the foreign exchange markets are impacting our business. However, through our Accelerate! program, we continue to take the necessary steps to become a more agile and entrepreneurial company. Frans has highlighted a number of really good examples, illustrating that the changes we are making with the Accelerate! program are being appreciated by our customers. In addition, we are improving our gross margins, and our overhead cost reduction program is on track to reach EUR 1 billion for this year, well ahead of our EUR 900 million target. With that, let me now open the line to your questions, which Frans and I will be happy to answer. Thank you.