Stacy Loretz-Congdon
Analyst · a question
Thanks, Tom, and good morning to everyone. As a reminder to those that are new to the story, our first quarter contributes the least amount of profit to the year. Historically, the first quarter generates approximately 20% of our net sales and 10% to 15% of EBITDA for the year. For that reason, we don't get too excited by first quarter results either way. That being said, a little more sales momentum would've helped the quarter, but we are not deterred, and we always know there's more work to be done. Diluted EPS for the first quarter was $0.22 compared to $0.31 last year or for those of you who model EPS, excluding LIFO expense, $0.37 for the quarter compared to $0.46 last year, a $0.09 a decline. Foreign exchange and lower inventory holding gains both in cigarettes and food/non-food explain the majority of this difference. In addition, higher sales during the quarter would've helped lift total earnings and better leveraged our operating expenses. All that being said, for 2013 we are reiterating our guidance in all respects. We still are expecting diluted EPS between the $3.10 and $3.25 in 2013, which includes an estimate of $60 million for LIFO expense, a 40% tax rate and 11.8 million diluted shares outstanding. Excluding LIFO expense, our 2013 EPS guidance translates to a range of $3.90 to $4.05 per diluted share, a 10% to 14% increase over 2012 results. Our LIFO expense assumes some inflation in 2013. It hasn't occurred yet, but we still believe all manufacturers will need to adjust pricing in 2013. The proposed federal excise tax, or FET, on cigarettes would also impact our product cost when and if this part of the President's budget passes. Similar to prior FET increases, if passed, we would expect the corresponding manufacturer price increase to pass along the tax to wholesalers. Moving onto the numbers for the quarter, sales reached $2.15 billion or 22% of our full-year guidance. This represent the 2.1% increase of our last year's sales of $2.1 billion. Cigarette sales increased a modest 0.8% for the quarter. However, a shift in carton sales mix to lower taxing jurisdictions compressed growth. Excluding excise taxes, cigarette sales increased 3.9%. This increase was driven by the Davenport acquisition offset by 1 less selling day the loss of several non-key customers last year and a 4.2% decrease in same-store carton sales. We expect comparisons will ease as we progress through the year with the addition of Turkey Hill and Davenport and as we lap the store losses last year and move into easier comps towards the end of the year. More importantly, we are bullish on our ability to win additional market share. Our food/non-food sales were $682 million for the quarter, increasing $34 million or 5.2% over the same period last year despite lower product inflation and one less selling day. Same-store sales increased 4.2%. This increase in our food/non-food sales mix -- this increased our food/non-food sales mix to 31.8%, a total sales up from 30.9% during the fourth quarter of last year and drove gross profit improvement from these higher margin category. Now remember, a significant cigarette price increase could cause a shift back in sales mix back to cigarettes, but nevertheless, we are encouraged by our continued growth in the food/non-food category. We've recorded a healthy 5.4% growth in our food categories, not only from the addition of Davenport, but also from deeper sales in certain markets. On a comparable basis, food categories grew about 5%. Florida, in particular, had excellent growth compared to Q1 last year since certain of our VCI Fresh programs were introduced into that market during Q2 of last year. Fresh, fast food and snacks led sales growth in -- also in the category. In addition, we are seeing continued growth in electronic cigarettes, which are categorized as general merchandise due to their lack of tax, and in the smokeless tobacco categories. Both of these product lines are most likely displacing the consumption decline in our cigarette carton sales and have higher margins as a percentage of sales. Gross profit increased $5.9 million or 5.4% for the first quarter of 2013, while remaining gross profit increased $6.2 million or 5.5%. Margins increased 17 basis points for gross profit and remaining gross profit alike, bearing in mind that remaining gross profit excludes cigarette holding gains and LIFO expense. Cigarette remaining gross profit was flat or down 3.9% on a comparable basis excluding Davenport. Remaining gross profit per carton was also flat, but was compressed by the addition of Davenport. Excluding their contribution, we did see a 3.5% increase in the cigarette gross profit per carton. Food/non-food remaining gross profit increased 8% to $82.8 million for the quarter and margins improved 31 basis points despite a slightly lower product inflation, which compressed margins by 4 basis points and the impact of Davenport, which compressed margins by another 7 basis points. This lift in margins is a continuation of what we saw in the fourth quarter driven by our success in higher margin categories at a time when new larger contracts are not impacting our margins. We do expect to see some compression in margins during the second quarter as a result of the new Turkey Hill business. However, our return on investment will still be in check since larger accounts pay and turn over their inventory faster. As such, this new business will contribute favorably to our 2013 growth. We also expect Davenport's food/non-food margins will improve as they expand their product offerings and implement more of our marketing program. And we believe FMI, VCI and Fresh will continue to improve as we move into the summer months, all good stuff. Moving onto our operating expenses, we saw a 6.6% increase from $104 million last year to $110.9 million for the first quarter this year. Davenport represented most of this increase. As a percentage of sales, we did see deleveraging on softer sales, noting a 22-basis-point increase. A couple of points to be made here. Q1 is ladened with fixed costs when our sales are generally softer than the rest of our quarter. So we do expect improvement in operating expense percentage relationships as the year progresses. Second, we do adjust wages and provide merit increases at the beginning of each year. So it's not unusual to see some weakening and percent relationships from the first quarter of each year. For example, in 2012, first quarter was 23 basis points higher than the full year, and in 2011 Q1 OpEx was 50 basis points higher than the full year. Third, as we increase our non-cigarette sales as a percentage of total sales, you will see operating expense percentages increase. This is due, in part, to the lower sales price points for these categories. Basically, the percentage relationships will change when you sell less cigarettes, which have a very high price point. Lastly, as we continue to roll out more for Fresh and other categories that require a cold channel and special handling, our operating costs for those categories are higher. However, as we said before, the net variable contribution for those higher margin categories are double those of traditional categories. As we drill down into our cost, warehouse and delivery expenses were $67.7 million, an increase of $4.3 million or 6.8% over the first quarter of last year. As a percentage of sales, warehouse and delivery increased 13 basis points due primarily to the deleveraging on softer sales dollars. In addition, we did not reduce the workforce on softer sales in Q1 since we knew we needed to ramp up staffing for the new Turkey Hill volume and the seasonality lift expected as we move into the summer months. We don't want a repeat of last year, where a few divisions were not prepared and had to spend excessive overtime and temporary help dollars to service our customers's needs. SG&A expenses increased $2.8 million or 7.1% again primarily due to the addition of Davenport. SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales increased 9 basis points from 1.9% to 2% due to deleveraging of fixed costs. Moving further down the income statement, our effective tax rate for the quarter was 36.6% versus 36.8% for the first quarter in 2012. Both periods benefiting from various tax credits and other discrete items recorded during the first quarter. We are still guiding to a 40% tax rate for the full year. Our tax rate is impacted mostly by the distribution of profits at the state level, foreign taxes and other credits available to us. We will continue to monitor our rates and revise them accordingly as the year progresses. Moving to cash flows, free cash flow was approximately $63 million this quarter compared to $88 million generated during the first quarter last year. As a reminder, first quarter cash generation benefits significantly from the selloff of heavy inventory levels carried at the end of the prior year to support holiday needs and LIFO layer targets. At the end of 2011, we had higher levels of inventories than the end of 2012, which resulted in less free cash flow this quarter versus the same period last year. As a reminder, we measure free cash flow as adjusted EBITDA plus or minus changes in working capital, less CapEx, cash taxes and cash interest. We paid down most of our outstanding debt and use $3.5 million to repurchase approximately 72,000 shares during the first quarter. We did not spend any cash on dividends since we had accelerated the first quarter dividend into the fourth quarter last year. We recently announced our second quarter dividend, which puts us back on schedule. We're still forecasting free cash flow for the year to be between $55 million and $60 million, an increase of over 10% compared to 2012, depending of course on any unusual year end activities. And we still expect approximately $30 million in CapEx this year even though first quarter spending was light due to the delay of certain projects. For example, with our natural gas initiatives, we are timing the spend on our CNG fuel stations to align with the availability of CNG tractor, which you may have heard that some manufacturers are experiencing delays in fulfilling the demand for higher power units. Moving on, average debt for the first quarter was $34.3 million compared to $24.8 million in the first quarter of last year. The increase was largely due to the Davenport acquisition. We're moving into spring and similar to last year, you will see debt usage increase at the beginning of summer and taper off at the end of summer. Trade loading for inventory price increases may also impact average debt positions in any given quarter. Our capital allocation positions support our key strategies and focus on ensuring we have sufficient capital to fund CapEx, inventory purchasing opportunities, dividends, share repurchases and acquisitions. To summarize, we had a decent quarter, especially considering weak consumer demand. However, first quarter is historically our weakest quarter, and we seem to be in line with past experience. We do expect sales comps will get easier as we benefit from our expanded partnership with Kroger servicing their Turkey Hill stores and sell deeper into our existing accounts. The former may compress margins, but I'm hopeful the latter will help to offset that impact. With this lift in sales, I would expect to see greater operating expense leverage. And with that, I'd like to thank all our employees, our vendors, our customers and you, our shareholders, for your continued support. Operator, you can now open the line for questions.