Stacy Loretz-Congdon
Analyst · Raymond James
Great. Thank you, Tom, and good morning to everyone. I'd like to start with a brief discussion of our earnings per share. Diluted EPS for the fourth quarter was $0.83 compared to $0.45 last year. Or for those of you who model EPS, excluding LIFO expenses, this translates to $0.90 for the quarter compared to $0.75 last year, a 20% improvement. For the year, diluted EPS, which exceeded our guidance, is $2.91 compared to $2.23 for 2011, a 30% increase. On a FIFO basis, we earned $3.55 this year compared to $3.17 in 2011, a 12% increase. We had guided to a FIFO range of $3.53 to $3.63. However, our guidance does not include the costs associated with the Davenport acquisition, which lowered our earnings by approximately $0.09. In addition, the impact of lower inventory holding gains across all categories this year versus last of about $10 million equaled about $0.51 per share for comparative purposes. For 2013, we are guiding to an EPS range between $3.10 and $3.25, which includes an estimate of $16 million for LIFO expense, a 40% tax rate and 11.8 million diluted shares outstanding. We expect an increase in LIFO expense as we do not expect to lower LIFO inventory levels further and we expect some inflation from then nontobacco manufacturers this year. The $3.7 million year-over-year increase in LIFO expense has the effect of reducing our EPS guidance by about $0.19 on a GAAP basis. Excluding LIFO expense, our 2013 EPS guidance translates to a range of $3.90 to $4.05 per diluted share, a 10% to 14% increase over 2012 results. I think it's worth mentioning that we generated sufficient excess cash in 2012 to purchase Davenport, pay out dividends of $0.89 per share, including the 2013 Q1 dividend we accelerated into December and repurchase some shares while continuing to invest in our business. Our financial condition is very healthy. Moving onto the numbers. Tom already covered year-to-date results, so I'll spend most of my time on the fourth quarter. Sales increased 2.9% in Q4 from $2.13 billion last year to $2.19 billion this year. Cigarette sales increased 1.5% and our non-cigarette sales increased 6.2%. We lapped ourself in the fourth quarter as it relates to the Southeast expansion, more specifically our new customer agreement, which supported the opening of the Tampa division in September of 2011. Cigarette sales increased 1.5% for the quarter or 3.4%, excluding excise taxes despite same-store carton sales, which were down 2.3% and 1 less selling day during the fourth quarter this year versus last. The increase in sales dollars was driven by manufacturer price increases during the year, which resulted in a 2.1% increase in our average sales price per carton. Cartons were sharply down in 3 divisions that lost a non-major accounts that we mentioned during our Q3 call. We expect comparisons will ease as we move through the year. More importantly, our non-cigarette categories increased nearly $40 million or 6.2% despite lower product inflation and 1 less selling day. Same-store sales increased 5.2%. Diving deeper, food, beverage and other tobacco categories increased about 7% while our general merchandise category increased over 10%. The increase in food was driven by our vendor consolidation, focused marketing and fresh initiative resulting in higher fast food, snacks and fresh sales. Beverage sales benefited from expansion of bottled water sales and juices and the consumer trends towards smokeless products continues to benefit other tobacco categories and general merchandise. We are pleased with the successes we are seeing in our marketing programs, which focus the organization on growing higher-margin, non-cigarette categories at a faster pace than cigarettes. Gross profit increased $12.1 million or 11% for the fourth quarter of 2012 while remaining gross profit increased $7.2 million or 6.4%. Gross profit margins for the quarter were up 40 basis points and remaining gross profit margins, which exclude LIFO expense in cigarette holding gains, increased 17 basis points. Cigarette remaining gross profit increased 2.5% or approximately $1 million and the remaining gross profit per carton increased 3.1% for Q4. Non-cigarette gross profit increased by 9.5% for the quarter and remaining gross profit for non-cigarette categories increased 8.3%. Non-cigarette margins improved 24 basis points despite lower product inflation, which compress margins by 10 basis points compared to prior year's fourth quarter. This improvement is reflective of our success in growing the higher-margin product categories at a time when no large contracts or large acquisitions are compressing the margins on a comparable basis. A little more inflation would be well received by wholesalers, and as I've stated before, manufacturer price increases have been anemic in 2012. Next quarter, when Davenport is reflected for a full quarter in our numbers, I would expect our overall non-cigarette margins to be compressed. This is because Davenport, as with most of our acquisitions in the beginning, is more heavily indexed to cigarettes and traditional non-cigarette items than the company as a whole. Over time, as some of our marketing initiatives are implemented and our non-cigarette offering is expanded, we expect our non-cigarette margins will improve significantly. Moving on, operating expenses were $105.6 million in the fourth quarter compared to $101.1 million for the same period last year, a 4.5% increase which is supported our sales growth, specifically our non-cigarette categories which increased 6.2%. Excluding the start-up costs in both years, our operating expenses as a percentage of sales increased 6 basis points. The biggest impact to the quarter were our health and welfare costs, which are subject to the timing and severity of claims under our self-insurance programs, increasing $2.4 million or an 11 basis point impact on total operating expenses for the fourth quarter. This effect was less severe on a year-to-date basis. Warehouse and delivery expenses increased $3.5 million or almost 6% to $64.7 million during the fourth quarter this year. As a percentage of sales, warehouse and delivery expenses increased 7 basis points. Again, the largest single driver was health and welfare expenses, increasing costs by 6 basis points. On the surface, it appears we didn't leverage warehouse and delivery. However, we believe we did achieve efficiencies as evidenced by the metric we use to measure cost per cubic feet of product shift. Warehouse and delivery cost per cubic foot for the quarter decreased 1.3% while the number of cubes shift increased 7.3%. This indicates that we are shifting more of the higher-margin categories with non-cigarette cubes increasing 8.2% and cigarette cubes, consistent with lower carton volumes, decreasing 2.1%. SG&A, as a percentage of sales, was essentially flat or down 4 basis points for the fourth quarter after you normalize for the increase in health and welfare expenses. Moving further down the income statement. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 38.2% versus 36.6% for the fourth quarter 2011. For the year, our effective tax rate was 38.8% compared to 39.4% last year. Substantially all of the increase in the tax rate for the quarter related to the nondeductible acquisition costs, and a decrease for the year was driven by a higher portion of our earnings being generated in states with lower tax rates. Encouragingly, our Canadian operations continue to improve as noted in the segment reporting for Canada for the year. Warehouse and delivery costs improved and we recorded a higher-margin contributions as a result of rationalizing the customer base and rerouting certain customers. In addition, we are starting to see sales increases from VCI and expect improvement from the 2 contracts Tom mentioned earlier that will benefit Canada later this year, including increases in dairy sales, which could be significant. Keep in mind, our net invested assets in Canada are structurally very minimal so returns on net invested assets are an important metric to consider. Moving onto cash flows, cash generated from operations before working capital changes was $80.6 million for 2012 compared to $73.5 million last year, a 9.7% increase. Changes in working capital, which measures 2 single points in time resulted in a use of cash in 2012 of $9.4 million, compared to a use of $62.2 million in 2011. Timing of receivable collections, inventory levels, related prepayments and payables were primary drivers to the working capital changes. As a reminder, we measure free cash flow as adjusted EBITDA plus or minus changes in working capital less CapEx, cash taxes and cash interests. Free cash flow generated in 2012 was about $50 million using 12/31 numbers. At the end of the year, we did have a temporary spike in the use of cash to support our year-end LIFO position for which we spent about $7 million more this year compared to the end of 2011. All in all, our free cash flow was in line with our Q3 projection of $50 million to $55 million. We expect free cash flow to be between $55 million and $60 million in 2013, an increase of over 10%, depending of course on any unusual year-end activity. Average debt for the year was $26.3 million, compared to $21.1 million in 2011. Average interim month working capital swings were approximately $53 million and our peak debt position was about $92 million in May in advance of the Memorial Day holiday, compared to a peak operating cash position of $56 million in September. Our current ratio is strong at 2:1 and our average monthly cash conversion cycle was approximately 13.8 days in 2012 compared to 14 days last year. You should note that we include both accounts and tobacco taxes payable in our cash conversion cycle due to the significant role they both have in our working capital management. Our capital allocation decisions support our key strategies and focus on ensuring we have sufficient capital to fund acquisitions, CapEx, opportunistic inventory buys, dividends and share repurchases. As previously discussed, we purchased J.T. Davenport on December 17 and paid $34 million at the time of closing, largely funded by our credit facility and some excess cash. There is a $4 million indemnification holdbacks that has not been paid yet, but is expected to be paid over the next 4 years. For CapEx, we spent $28.6 million in 2012 and expect not to exceed $30 million in 2013. Share repurchases totaled $5.2 million for the year and we paid $10.3 million in dividends in 2012, including the acceleration of our first quarter 2013 dividend. To summarize, we had a strong quarter and record earnings for the year. We are growing our business at a healthy rate and continue to generate substantial free cash flow with very modest debt. We are executing our key strategies well and continue to work hard to take market share while controlling our costs. And with that, I'd like to thank all of our employees, our vendors, our customers and you, our shareholders, for your continued support. Operator, you can now open the lines for questions.