Earnings Labs

Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

Q1 2017 Earnings Call· Thu, May 4, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you all for joining us this morning. Before I turn the call over I need to advise that certain statements made during this call today may contain forward-looking information, and actual results could differ from the conclusions or projections that the forward-looking information, which include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the timing and amount of estimated future production, cost of production, capital expenditures, future metal prices, and the cost and timing of the development of new projects. For a complete discussion of the risks, uncertainties and factors which may lead to actual financial results and performance being different from the estimates contained in the forward-looking statements, please refer to Yamana’s press release issued yesterday announcing first quarter 2017 results, as well as the Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the same period and other regulatory filings in Canada and the United States. I'd like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay today at 12 o'clock P.M. Eastern Time. Replay information and the presentation slides accompanying this conference call and webcast are available on Yamana’s Web site at yamana.com. I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Peter Marrone, Chairman and CEO.

Peter Marrone

Management

effort has done into our Shareholder: This morning we intend to provide a quick overview. In light of that Annual Meeting later today and the Investor Day tomorrow. With me here is Daniel Racine, who will provide an update on our operations for the quarter and Jason LeBlanc; who will provide an update on our financial position for the quarter. However, we do have all of our Senior Management here to address any questions that anyone on the call might have. To begin, then let's talk about the approach of the Company. We call that a six pillar approach. We have undertaken an effort to streamline our Company over the past few years, that is not just in our operating portfolio, but also on our management and our management construct. We have improved the quality of managers in this Company, and we’ve improved also the bench strength of that particular management. I am very pleased to say that several nights ago, we announced that we had brought into the management of this Company at a senior management level. Steve Parsons, who most recently was the gold analyst covering our Company and several companies in the sector, our peers from National Bank Financial. I'm sure that you are saddened at the loss in the analyst community, although that loss is our gain and we’re very happy with that. He brings considerable experience that he adds to that management construct to which I referred. In developing our management, we've identified six pillars on which we focus and we see these pillars is the approach, the best realizing potential of this Company and the portfolio that we have in the Company. Let me highlight and expand on several of these. In terms of improvements on our operations, we are focused on improving each…

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you, Peter. Good morning, everyone. As Peter mentioned, our production in the first quarter exceeded our plan. We produced over 250,000 ounces of gold from our six mines. In the quarter, we also produced just over 1 million ounces of silver and approximately 26.5 million pounds of copper. With this better than planned production in the first quarter, we increased our full-year book guidance to 940,000 ounces of gold. It is important to note that Yamana has established trends of back loaded production and this year it will be no different. We expect approximately 54% of metals production to come in the second half of this year. So we are very comfortable increasing our goal guidance at this point. In summary, you can expect 400 -- around 435,000 ounces in the first half and 505,000 ounces in the second half. Looking at our cost, we see that the first quarter has positioned us well for the reminder of the year. Across all metric, our cost came in below our plan. Looking at Yamana's six mine, we produced each ounces of gold at a cash cost of $687 and our all-in sustaining cash cost at 912. These are slightly above year guidance range, but with the plant production increase and other operational improvements we expect in 2017. We are confident that cost will be decreasing into those range by year-end. Similarly, when we look at silver and copper, we see cost either already in line with full-year guidance or slightly above and these are expected to improve over 2017 as we increase production and deliver other operational improvements. I'd like now to briefly go through each of our six operations to highlight some important advance, as well as a few of the strategic initiative we are pursuing. At Chapada, we…

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Thank you, Daniel. Turning now to some highlights of our financial performance for the first quarter. We delivered revenue of $403.5 million, which was up slightly compared to last year. Our net loss for the quarter was $5.9 million or a loss of $0.01 per share. Lower earnings year-over-year were impacted by stronger FX, mainly in Brazil and Chile and lower grade and recovery of certain mines. In particular, the recovery at Chapada is expected to increase as the year progresses. I should also note that in Q1 we had almost $8 million of standby costs at El Peñón during the strike that are not representative of our ongoing earnings. And despite the wage negotiations during Q1, El Peñón ended up delivering a strong quarter ahead of our expectations. As you saw from our release, we’ve discontinued the reporting of adjusted earnings. However, we have and will continue to provide a summary of the typical adjusting items that investors may include in arriving at their own view of adjusted earnings. The standby costs at El Peñón I just mentioned are an item that will not be recurring, although they impacted our Q1 financials. Mine operating earnings were just under $60 million for the quarter, down from last year mainly by higher cost of sales in the quarter. Despite this, our cost during Q1 were better than our targets as we just heard from Daniel. Cash based G&A was $18.3 million for the quarter, which is tracking well to our expectation for the year. Expansionary capital was just over $50 million for the quarter, an increase of $40.6 million from last year mainly due to the acceleration of construction at Cerro Moro. Spending on Cerro Moro was $35 million compared with $11 million last year quarter-over-quarter. On the expiration front, we’re…

Peter Marrone

Management

So ladies and gentlemen, that's our presentation for this morning. And we open the line-up to any questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from David Hudson of CIBC. Please go ahead.

David Hudson

Analyst

Good morning, Peter and team. Thank you for taking the call. Question perhaps for Daniel. Just looking at Florida, we see that the tile [ph] is going to be discontinued in the second quarter. Just wondering what the throughput could look like for the balance of the year, particularly, post expansion?

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes, we’re -- David, we’re doing some test right now. We put the two mills together. We have extra capacity for sure in the throughput. So this is all we’re going to catch-up, because Florida was a bit lower than expected in Q1 compared to all the other mines were above plan. So we’re going to catch-up, but for this year we won't see a major difference of what we guide. The big difference will come from mostly next year and the year after.

David Hudson

Analyst

Okay. So from the milling side of things, excluding the tiles …

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes.

David Hudson

Analyst

… it looks like you’re around about 2,000 tons a day in the first quarter. And wondering if you can push that towards a 3,000 tons a day kind of level, or is that a bit too ambitious?

Daniel Racine

Management

It's a bit too ambitious for now, whereas we have to complete the study, David, this year, but TSR target is to increase the throughput in the -- for sure in the coming years.

David Hudson

Analyst

Okay. And then …

Daniel Racine

Management

The tile -- to add on the tile, its completely old finish and we’re not processing any tiles anymore. It was completed in Q1.

David Hudson

Analyst

Okay, got you. So over to Chapada, you’re doing quite a bit of work there to enhance the recoveries. Recoveries in the first quarter was lower than expected below -- for gold this is below 50%. I know that you had mentioned as the ore type and fair enough. But wonder with the change in ore type and also with the additional work that you’re undertaking on-site where you can see those recoveries going to through the course of the year end to next year?

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes, like we mentioned, the first -- in the first quarter we -- and it was the rainy season also, so we’re less flexible during that time and then we followed our mining sequence, and that was on one ore type that it's more difficult to recovered, but without the improvement we have done last year, that recovery would have been lower than that. But for the rest of the year, like we saw it already in Q2, we're back to where we were supposed to be for both gold and copper. And with the clean -- the cleaner circuit that will be put into operation in Q4 this year. These recoveries will increase again compared to where they are right now.

David Hudson

Analyst

I’m just trying to put a number on that, back to normally set around about the 60% level?

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes.

David Hudson

Analyst

And moving forward with a benefit of the cleaner, could it be a touch above 60%?

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes, we’re looking around 60% to 63%.

David Hudson

Analyst

Okay. And on the copper side, would you [multiple speakers] at 80%?

Daniel Racine

Management

Same. Yes, same thing about 2% or 3% more for copper.

David Hudson

Analyst

Okay.

Daniel Racine

Management

So, 82% to 83%.

David Hudson

Analyst

All right. Just looking now at Jacobina, throughput is going very nicely there. You’re getting it over 5,000 tons a day and for many years you had struggled to get anyway near that. Is that a sustainable level, plus 5,000 tons a day with over 2 grams of material going through the mill?

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes. Yes, for sure. This is why Jacobina perform very well in Q1 and will do the same for the rest of the year. So you can anticipate above 5,000 tons per day and around the 2.2, 2.3 grams per ton.

Peter Marrone

Management

And Daniel, if I can also add, David on the struggle part. You might remember that we’ve two ball mills there and we had shutdown one of the two mill was to concentrate on development work. And so as we advanced development work, we can now increase the throughput as we’ve more order process through that plant. So it was a deliberate effort on management's part of -- mine management's part to focus on development, so that we can then bring the throughput back up. And now with that effort, Yohann and Daniel are in a better position to bring that throughput out.

David Hudson

Analyst

Yes, so it had been more mine confined than mill confined and it looks like …

Peter Marrone

Management

Correct.

David Hudson

Analyst

… the development work is paying off?

Peter Marrone

Management

Yes.

David Hudson

Analyst

It also seems to me is though some of that lift that you had in the guidance is really pointing at Jacobina, is that a fair assessment?

Peter Marrone

Management

That’s a fair assessment.

David Hudson

Analyst

Okay. And last question perhaps to Jason. I was quite surprised with the very high interest expense in the quarter. Can you just explain what happened there?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yes. I think that’s -- David, probably attributable to a higher proportion of capitalized interest, because of the pick up at Cerro Moro.

David Hudson

Analyst

But it was higher rather than lower. If you had higher capitalization, it would have been a lower number, wouldn’t it?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yes. So, David, in there as well, I guess, it's not just purely the interest expense, but we’ve financing cost as well. So this is the calculation of the revaluation of our foreign-exchange colors that we have on the Brazilian real. Some of that movement went through the financing expense as well. So you remember we have about two thirds of our OpEx hedge this year under [indiscernible] structure for Brazil so.

David Hudson

Analyst

Okay. Any interest kind of got a whack on that thing?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yes.

David Hudson

Analyst

All right. Thank you very much everyone.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The following question is from Tanya Jakusconek of Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Yes, good morning. Thank you, Daniel for the guidance of the 20,000 ounces. Is that all from Jacobina then for the -- for 2017, the additional 20,000 ounces?

Daniel Racine

Management

No. about half of it is Jacobina and then except Florida we will be right on guidance. All the other mines, it's a bit lower -- bit higher, sorry.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. So then the other 10,000 ounces sort of spread across every [multiple speakers]?

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes, spread across, yes, all the other mines.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. That’s helpful. Thank you. And maybe Jason just on the working capital adjustment, have you see that progressing through the year or how do we exit 2017 level wise on that working capital adjustment?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yes, I think -- I would say in the range of 75% of that would reverse. The balance would be what I had mentioned in my remarks about the Cerro Moro VAT will -- that’s going to build through the construction period. So, yes, 75% is going to reverse pretty evenly quarter-over-quarter, probably a little bit more geared to Q2.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. And then the VAT, do you expecting that then in 2018?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

That’s correct.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The following question is from Don MacLean of Paradigm. Please go ahead.

Don MacLean

Analyst

Well good morning, guys. Just a quick question. Daniel, you had mentioned on at El Peñón significant exploration potential. It that sort of a generic statement, or you homing in on some specific new discoveries?

William Wulftange

Analyst

Don, this is Will Wulftange. Yes, this -- what we’re doing here -- which we’ve explored the various extensions of the structures to the North and South that we're currently focused on exploring around these structures. We're having some mixed results, but generally positive finding other smaller, but mineable, very mineable deposits along these structures. So that’s -- the current focus of our exploration program there for the near mine. For the district mine, we're also looking for new structures to the South of the main mine area, especially Quebrada, Providencia and in that direction where we know the system dips underneath the cover, the service cover. So those are the two main focuses of our exploration program right now.

Don MacLean

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

William Wulftange

Analyst

All right. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The following question is from Dan Rollins of RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Yes. Thanks very much. Just a couple of questions on Canadian Malartic. With the Barnett expansion now approved and that moving forward, how do you see Odyssey coming into the development scenario sort of on a timeline. And more importantly is this -- one-time there is contemplation of doing a ramp or a shaft to get in there. What are you -- what’s the thinking on Odyssey right now?

Daniel Racine

Management

Well, we’re doing the pre-fease study right now on Odyssey. So -- and after that we will have to do a fease study. So, Odyssey is still -- we’re still drilling a lot on Odyssey, and then like Peter mentioned, we’ve other opportunity around Odyssey and below the actual pits. So we have to put all of that together and then find what's the best solution like I mentioned on. Is it the ramp, is it the shaft where -- if it’s the shaft where or is the best place to position the shaft, we're not there yet, but we're continuing the study. Regarding when it can be in production, I think it's too early to comment on that now, but it won't be in the next two, three years for sure.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Okay, perfect. And then with respect to Barnett, my understanding is that the rock is definitely softer there and higher grade, and you won't be able to -- I know you want to put a 100% of Barnet in there, just given the back end of the system, but what sort of the feed rate from Barnett, from the main pit you’re expecting and more importantly where do you see the throughput being able to go with the softer rock addition from Barnett?

Daniel Racine

Management

Well, the nameplate of the nearly 65,000 ton per day, so now with the decree ore in the -- we’re in the phase now to have for certificate of authorization to increase throughput and increase production, and then start the deviation of the road and then expand on Barnett. So maximum throughput, even if it's softer ore, we don’t see more than 55,000 ton per day for the full operation. And then, the way it is build right now we’ve two-fold -- we need two-fold summer to build the new road. So it won't start this year, as you can understand we need to get the permit and we will get it this year, sometime later this year and then we need two-fold summer, so '18 and '19 to build it, the road deviation. But during that time, slowly we will start stripping for Barnett on the south side of the road. So focusing ore production in next year and most of '19 will come -- still come from the main pit, then slowly it will go down and then be replaced by Barnett.

Peter Marrone

Management

And Daniel we’re not including any of that in our guidance.

Daniel Racine

Management

No. so that net -- the three years guidance we have right now, there is nothing for that.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Okay, perfect.

Daniel Racine

Management

So we will see when we revise next year, early next year what’s the new plan for Canadian Malartic in total, we will have that number, but for now like -- it's like I said the next 2 years, 2.5 years it's basically the road deviation and then getting prepared for Barnett.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Okay. And then some of the -- without getting into the [indiscernible] potentially under the pit, what are the regional pit opportunities you're looking at there?

Daniel Racine

Management

We don’t look at any other pits. I would say, its mostly all underground potential. So below the actual Canadian Malartic pit, the Barnett pit, you all know the -- all these Malartic underground operation that's right next to Odyssey, and Odyssey it's an underground mine, so everything will look right now. It's underground potential, no more open pit.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The following question is from Tanya Jakusconek of Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Yes, sorry. Jason, forgot to ask you about the Cerro Moro VAT. What is the size of the VAT that we’re looking at?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yes, it's a plus or minus $5 million.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay. So it's just small then in terms of recoup. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I’d like to turn the meeting back over to Mr. Marrone.

Peter Marrone

Management

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much. I did want to capture an important point on our guidance. We did increase our guidance last night and I appreciate the questions about how to attribute that increase, to what mine it should be applied. Perhaps if I can give a flavor to something, we think our guidance is modest and fair. We want to point out again that all of our mines, Minera Florida performed to plan, all of our other mines performed above planned. Some performs significantly above plan and clearly Jacobina is an excellent example of that, and we would add to that the performance that we received from Gualcamayo and also from El Peñón with a significant efforts that were undertaken after the strike concluded. We entered into our collective bargaining agreement with the unions and the ramp-up that occurs from that point forward. So, while we’ve given some indication of where the attribution would come for that increasing guidance for mine -- one mine or another. All of our mines were expected to perform certainly at our plans and we expect better than our plans. And so, our hope is that we will continue to perform to the upside. And while you may attribute some of that 20,000 ounces to Jacobina or to some other mine, our expectation is that we will be able to show that all of our mines perform consistent with the first quarter, perform at a better level than what we’re currently showing. So with that, ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much and we look forward to seeing you at our Shareholder Meeting and at our Investor Day tomorrow.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation.