Earnings Labs

Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

Q2 2017 Earnings Call· Fri, Jul 28, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

All participants please standby, your conference is now ready to begin. Thank you all for joining us this morning. Before I turn the call over I need to advise that certain statements made during this call today may contain forward-looking information, and actual results could differ from the conclusions or projections in that forward-looking information, which include, but are not limited to statements with respect to the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the timing and amount of estimated future production, cost of production, capital expenditures, future metal prices, and the cost and timing of the development of new projects. For a complete discussion of the risks, uncertainties, and factors which may lead to actual financial results and performance being different from the estimates contained in the forward-looking statements. Please refer to Yamana’s press release issued yesterday announcing second quarter 2017 results, as well as the Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the same period and other regulatory filings in Canada and the United States. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay today at 12 P.M. Eastern Time. Replay information and the presentation slides accompanying this conference call and webcast are available on Yamana’s website at yamana.com. I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Peter Marrone, Chairman and CEO.

Peter Marrone

Management

Good morning ladies and gentleman. As is our practice I will provide a bit of an overview. We have here with us this morning Daniel Racine who is our Chief Operations Officer to provide some further insights on operations, Barry Murphy who manages our technical services with a focus on Cerro Moro to talk about a project update on Cerro Moro, and of course Jason LeBlanc our Chief Financial Officer to provide some input for you on our financial results. If we begin this presentation I refer to these six pillars in our six pillar approach to the management of this business. I would like to emphasize the four that are highlighted, these are the focus that I'd like to emphasize this morning. Clearly we’ll provide more information on exploration and the next phase of growth that will follow later in the year. If we begin with improvements to operations and quarter-over-quarter, we had a strong Q2 over Q1. We expect to have a stronger second half of the year over the first half of the year and at lower costs. Our gold production from Q1 to Q2 was up 13%. And if you look to the left side of this page comparing the first half of last year to the first half of this year, while production is slightly below where we were in the first half of last year that is accounted for El Peñón with the approach that we've taken, the new mine plan that we've taken. And clearly there is a strong performance in the first half of this year not only from El Peñón but accounting for that new mine plan almost all of our operations have performed better than expectations. We expect to have a stronger second half of the year as I mentioned…

Daniel Racine

Management

Thank you Peter. Good morning everyone. We continued to deliver operationally in the second quarter. We produced over 244,000 ounces of gold from our six mines for a total of 460,000 ounces in the first half, which is ahead of where we had expected to be. In the quarter we also produced just over 1.3 million ounces of silver and approximately 29 million pounds of copper. As Peter mentioned, Yamana has an established trend of back loaded production and this year we expected to continue that trend. The first half positioned us very well to deliver on production expectations for the full year. Looking across Yamana's six mine produce each ounces of gold at a cash cost of $671 and an all in sustaining cash costs of $869 for the quarter. That doesn't take into account what Peter mentioned about the copper credit. These are lower than the first quarter and in the case of all in sustaining cost already within our guidance for the full year. With that planned production increase and other operational improvements we expect in the second half of 2017, we are confident that the positive cash trend will continue through the second half. Similarly when we look at silver and copper we see cost either already in line with full year guidance or slightly above. These are also expected to improve over the rest of 2017. I would like to briefly go through each of our six operations. At Chapada we continued to implement initiative with the objective to improve processing stability and increase gold and copper recoveries. Production in Q2 was higher than our plan. The advanced control system and retrofit to the flotation circuit are providing stability to the process and are supporting an increase in recovery and lower power consumption per ton.…

Barry Murphy

Management

Thank you Daniel, and good morning everyone. I'm going to be talking briefly on Cerro Moro as Peter mentioned. The project continues to track against the plan in terms of scheduling cost with the focus now on the receipt of chemical equipment and piping. The mill building and refinery are now enclosed allowing work in these areas to continue in the event of adverse weather conditions during the mid season. The steel work is progressing well with approximately 500 tons [indiscernible] out of a total of 1600 tons. Activities on sites have been steadily ramping up since the start of the year. For the next three to four months being the peak of construction activities. The next slide, mechanical completion is scheduled to be achieved by the end of this year. And commissioning will start some of the early systems in quarter four and will then continue through to the end of quarter one next year at which time we will begin the ramp up activities. The underground mine development is also progressing well with a total of 439 meters advanced to date in 2017. This is in addition to the 617 meters developed in 2016. In terms of costs we’ve spent approximately $77 million year-to-date of a full cost cash expenditure of $178 million for 2017 which remains in line with our expenditure plan. To-date we have committed approximately 70% of the total initial capital without any significant surprises in contract costs. With that I will hand over to Jason.

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Thank you Barry and good morning everyone. Turning now to our financial performance for the second quarter. We delivered revenue of $428 million down slightly from last year. Net loss for the quarter was $34.8 million or $0.04 per share. Lowering earnings year-over-year were driven mainly by income tax which included unrealized foreign exchange losses of $25 million. Mine operating earnings were $55 million for the quarter up slightly on lower cost of sales and depreciation. Cash based G&A excluding Brio Gold was $18.6 million for the quarter which is tracking to our full year guidance and in line with the first quarter. Depreciation was approximately $112 million for the quarter. We have been running a little ahead of what we guided for depreciation. As we have mentioned at midyear we are slightly ahead of our anticipated first half production levels Furthermore we upgraded our production guidance by 20,000 ounces back in Q1 so depreciation have been a little higher as well. Expansionary capital has increased since last year due to the construction progress that Cerro Moro. This pace will continue for the rest of the year where we expect about $100 million of spending on Cerro Moro over Q3 and Q4. On the exploration front we are tracking to budget with approximately $30 million of total spending in the quarter. The movement in operating cash flow year-over-year was mainly due to the inclusion of stream payments received in 2016 without a comparable item this year. Operating cash flow was up from Q1 this year and we expect higher cash flow generation during Q3 and Q4 as these will be our strongest production quarters. In the quarter we increased the cash balance by approximately $26 million and we did that through cash flow supplemented by the monetization of approximately $57…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. The first question is from Dan Rollins from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Yeah, thanks very much. Daniel, I was wondering if you might provide a little bit more color on what to expect in H2. Obviously you've mentioned that you expect production to be higher over H1 but specifically the El Peñón, Malartic, and Jacobina you are running well ahead of full year guidance on an annual run rate and if you look back to the May 2017 Investor Day, at each of those mines you'd expected higher production in H2 and I'm just wondering is sort of the benefit in Q2, is that from bringing ounces forward from the mine plan this year or is this purely a benefit of potentially higher grade better throughput and potentially productivity gains at each of those assets?

Daniel Racine

Management

The second part of your question you have it Dan. It's -- I think we did amazingly great in the first half, it will continue in the second half for all the mines you mentioned.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Okay and just I mean there for you obviously right now it's you have the capacity in the mill and you're developing credit loss [ph], sorry if I put you that name, but where do you sort of see throughput trending and where do you expect to be throughput in the mill by the end of the year?

Daniel Racine

Management

For the rest of this year it will be around 75,000 ton per month, 75,000 to 80,000 ton per month. The mine will produce more than that but the mill will be limited to that until the end of this year.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Okay, great and then maybe just obviously you've done some work there at the Kirkland properties with Upper Beaver and sort of using a centralized facility, you mentioned 250,000 ounces of production annually, any sort of rough estimate of what a mine site AISC would be on that production?

Daniel Racine

Management

No not yet Dan.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Okay and then Peter just with respect to Brazil, obviously lot of things going on there politically, you do have the Suruca deposit that you're looking to build, do you see any risk or are you looking potentially maybe to delay that build just to see -- just give the time for the political situation to sort of calm down, just given sort of the tax challenges, the political challenges and the fact that they are potentially looking to increase more of these?

Peter Marrone

Management

Yes Dan, if you look at our MD&A we tried to sort of give a view, a geopolitical view of what's happening in Brazil. And I think we have to make sure that we're not confusing what's happening legislatively and at an executive level with what's happening at a bureaucratic level. Someone said to me years ago that in the absence of anything a vacuum gets filled and in the absence of executive oversight or where there's challenge to that it gets filled by bureaucratic action and that's what I think has been taking place in Brazil. So the more significant effort has been made for example with tax and assessments at a bureaucratic level. Our impression is that what's taking place in the country with a lot of legislative reform that includes labor reform, mining reform, tax law reform, containment of the fiscal position of the country is actually encouraging and positive. Now there will be some follow that comes from that, you mentioned the royalties and let me speak to that in a moment. But this is an attempt to say let's put discipline back into the country, let's put discipline back into the legislative process, into the executive process, and let's move forward from what has been some comparatively difficult years with a heavy recession over the course of the last several years. Now interestingly we're not seeing that impacting operations. We're not seeing it impacting permitting and interestingly if I look at the labor reforms that have been passed, again there are always pros and cons and there are going to be -- there's going to be a bit of a ying and a yang to any legislation and changes. But there is positive, the better alignment of employer and employee rights, the improving rights of…

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Perfect, thanks for that clarity. And just one last question for me, just given the run up here in copper any thoughts about putting in some protective hedges to sort of lock in some of the margin with your currency hedges already in place at Chapada for 2018 and the remainder of 2017?

Peter Marrone

Management

We will always consider that. Clearly we want to be in a position where we're close or better than our budget assumptions. So we will always consider that Dan. I think that that's something that we've done in the past. While we don't state it expressly this way, copper is -- we do treat that as a credit to our precious metals production in gold in particular. And so that is something that we would consider. But right at this juncture whether or not the short term will continue to show strong copper prices, we've seen some pretty significant improvements, almost $0.15 in literally weeks to months per pound. Copper is likely to get stronger over the course of the next number of years and that's an important point to mention here. One of the things that is driving that is an IMF view that the government in China has, sorry, that the economy in China is now more robust and continues to improve. From a personal perspective I also look at this very strong print that we're seeing in the world on the automotive side in particular with electric cars. There has to be storage capacity and you need a certain metal for storage capacity and that's copper. And so I think certainly intermediate and longer-term there is a higher potential for copper price to be well in excess of where it is today. And so we're very encouraged with where copper is today and we will continue to go but we'll continue to monitor and review whether or not we should be taking short-term or intermediate term actions to lock in some of that increase in copper price.

Dan Rollins

Analyst

Great, thanks very much. Enjoy the weekend.

Peter Marrone

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. The next question is from David Haughton from the CIBC. Please go ahead.

David Haughton

Analyst

Good morning Peter and team. Thank you very much for the update. Perhaps the first question could go to Barry if it is okay, Peter, just looking at Cerro Moro, you can say the development moving quite nicely on the underground, wonder if you have touched the ore underground yet and what the ground conditions have been, are there any surprises?

Peter Marrone

Management

David yes, we have touched ore and you may recall from some of the previous information we provided that the ore is in two distinct zones. There is the way the rock touch the surface and there is the fissure rock a little bit deeper down. Our intention this year, so we are in the way to rock and we haven’t come across any surprises. It is all according to what we expected. By the end of the year we will be forecasting total horizontal development close to 1000 meters. We will be advancing into the fresh rock as well. So before the end of the year we'll have a good understanding of the underground conditions in both of those ore zones.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay, so the amount of reinforcing that you had to do on your various drives there is nothing out of the norm there, it is all as expected so far?

Peter Marrone

Management

Correct, there is nothing out of the norm at the moment.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay, so over to Jacobina if that is alright, quite an improvement, a nice trend there on the throughput in Q2 building on what happened in Q1 and last year. Wondering where to from here, where do you see the throughput moving to at that mine, and what's your forward expectations?

Daniel Racine

Management

David, our target is to fill that mill at full capacity of 6,500 tons per day. So that is our target and I say difficult to achieve this year but we're trending towards that and then very good chance that will do it for next year.

David Haughton

Analyst

Alright, so that's quite a step up from where we are today.

Peter Marrone

Management

Yes.

David Haughton

Analyst

Because the issue there the way it’s been mine confined rather than mill confined. So I guess you're getting quite a bit of development ahead of you to be able to support that?

Daniel Racine

Management

Yes, we have more than a year now, it's 14 to 15 month ahead, development ahead of production so that wasn't the case in the previous year. This is where we are now, this is why Jacobina is performing that well.

David Haughton

Analyst

Okay, just flipping back to a comment that Peter had made in the opening portion about Suyai saying that the local opposition seems to have died away and I find that rather interesting and wondering where to from here and what the payment in timeline might be?

Peter Marrone

Management

Let me make sure that we clarify. I think that was a bit of a paraphrase David. We didn't see the local opposition has died away, I think it would certainly be true that the local opposition is substantially less than it has historically been. And what we're also saying is we have to look at it and say, what have been the reasons for that local opposition. Now remember this is an asset that a predecessor of ours owned. We just kept it on the shelf and what we've been doing is improving as I mentioned the technical aspects of it. We have been engaging in the local community, we've been engaging at several levels in the country. We've been engaging with potential partners that are local partners, nationals of the country to see is there a plan to move forward, what have been the two things that have been the primary reasons for the initial opposition. We can agree to disagree on whether or not it was managed well or not managed well by that predecessor company but the two reasons were an open pit and the processing and use of cyanide. Now we as members of this community and in this industry can understand that all of that can be managed very well. But we’ve looked at it from a different perspective which is rather than trying to explain how to manage it, let's look at it from the perspective of how do we eliminate the issues. This is a 15 gram per ton deposit. It is configured to be an underground mine, it does not have to be open pit. It requires a little bit more capital to do that but it delivers excellent returns and great production. That eliminates one of the issues that has historically been raised. The second is the use of chemicals and cyanide in particular and in that regard if we can process a high grade concentrate and my recollection is we're looking at three ounces per ton or more and then over land transport that to an offsite facility that eliminates our risk as well. Clearly the preference would be to process at site. But we're not going to engage with this plan with local community, with the province, with the national government, with potential interested parties that might want to participate with joint venture. Clearly our preference is to do this on our own but, we also recognize the importance of having a national involved. And we'll look at all of those options to see how we can surface value from this asset.

David Haughton

Analyst

Yes, I know that you been working on your social license for a very-very long time there, so perhaps I just latched on to a glimmer of hope.

Peter Marrone

Management

And it is a glimmer of hope but, it is a very high quality project and that glimmer -- why the glimmer is -- what's interesting is the pace of the glimmer and the pace of the increase in that glimmer. And with the improvements in Argentina, the national government's effort to encourage mining in Argentina, the significantly and I mean significantly reduced local community opposition, the lack of international NGOs that had opposed this project now not being there any longer. That gives us more than a bit of a glimmer of hope that there is a future for this project. And a 15 grams per ton, 250,000 ounces per year, we should be looking at the options that are available to us for creating value from it.

David Haughton

Analyst

Right, thank you Peter.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Tanya Jakusconek from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Yes, good morning everybody. Just congratulations on a good operating performance from your key mines. It’s nice to say that and my questions actually not so much technical cause previous speakers have asked quite a number of questions. I just wanted to come back to Jason if I could, Jason just on that working capital adjustment I think it was about 65 million or so that we saw in Q1 and we were hoping to get some reversal back in Q2, I think we had given guidance of about 75% of that reversing in 2017, how do we look on that front?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yes, sure Tanya. If you remember back in Q1 we had that negative outflow of the 65 million you referenced. The amount of component of that was about $40 million in Q1, the balance residing within Brio. So in Q2 here we referenced an $8 million reversal from Yamana that included a buildup of GAT at Cerro Moro of about $5 million in the quarter. So without that there was about a $13 million improvement. And going back to that comment on 75% reversal that would have excluded the buildup of Cerro Moro which we said that's going to happen over the course of the mine development and really into we think early 2019 when that will reverse itself, that GAT balance now is about $27 million down at Cerro Moro.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay, and for the rest of the year in terms of reversals in Q3, Q4, what should we expect?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yeah, without the exact precision I'd say it would be somewhere between flat and $10 million quarter-by-quarter here.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay, perfect. And then Jason just for our model to just make sure that we have that our debt calculations are right for you, what is your current leverage ratio right now as at the end of Q2, calculated now?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

I think it's right around that 2 to 2.8 that you would've mentioned this morning.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay, good so our model is working. Okay and just you talked about the 75 million of Brazilian tax payments, clearly a worst case scenario Jason if would assume current metal pricing and your current production forecast for a stronger second half of the year with better production and lower cost, if we had to pay to 75 million of tax payments where do you forecast your peak leverage ratio to be?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

I mean there's a lot of assumptions that would go into a single number Tanya. I think the way to look at it and I'll go back to my final comments on turning the year. We feel like we're turning the year into our best performance. So we've got some, we got a static debt number and in our minds a much improved cash flow and EBITDA generating situation which will keep that leverage in check. I think that's the way to look at it. Obviously we are making a decision to move forward with the debt payments that would have been taken into consideration and as I said that's completely manageable for the company. I think other things to consider on the back half of the year is the tailwinds that we do see in the business right now. Down at Cerro Moro Peter mentioned the currency. We've seen the currency move much weaker than our plan and we're really ramping up to a high spend period so that's going to provide a nice benefit. I think we heard about production and costs from the operating team. We do think there's upside in those numbers that's going to drive the EBITDA performance as well. And I think the smaller note to point out but as we do think it’s going to be good performance in the back half of the year.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

No, no, I mean that’s what we have to in our model, we're just wondering what would be peak if we had to pay that 75 million or maybe is the 2.8 peak for you of given the better performance for the second half of the year at constant pricing?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

Yes.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Yes, it is?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

No, I said that I think the way to look at it is our debt levels are going to be tempered by the growing EBITDA and any cash flow outage is included in those numbers.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst

Okay, alright, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Steven Butler from GMP Securities, Please go ahead.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Thanks operator. Jason while you're on the floor there, in this provisional measure of 783 as Tanya was asking about these payments, the 75 million in 2017 and 2018, in addition would you have to make these other annual payments end of the year if they meet the exclusive, in other words you had the payments from 2018 to 2029 for 12 more years of the 9.2 million per year, is that also in addition too, correct?

Jason LeBlanc

Management

No, those are two different scenarios Steve. As we've made our disclosure we have an original proposal that 783 and then the more recent joint proposal of Congress that's been put forward and that made up the payments primarily which would be made over the balance of 2017 and then that one stop payment in 2018.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Okay, so right. So time value wise they are not too different from an NPV point of view.

Peter Marrone

Management

And then Steven the 2018 payment in the original provisional measure would be lower than its 9.2 million versus the amount that would be in the suggested amendments.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Right, okay, thanks Peter. Last question guys on Suyai was just coming back to that one whether it comes out of the woods or off the mountain eventually. But in terms of the work you've done or not, how much work has been done on concentrate in terms of sort of the application that -- would concentrate work here I guess is the question, maybe some of the maintenance of the rough metrics if you can pull them to us here?

Barry Murphy

Management

Hi Steven, it’s a Barry Murphy again. We’re actually looking at two options for Suyai from a processing perspective. One is the production of a final product metal and the other is the concentrate which based on your assumptions that we would ship that and total refine it offshore. So it is considered to be viable to deliver the study that we've done.

Steven Butler

Analyst

So I guess Barry what would be the flotation product, is it a pirate flotation or what's the essence of it?

Barry Murphy

Management

Correct, pirate flotation concentrate.

Steven Butler

Analyst

Okay, alright, that's good enough for now. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I would now like to turn the meeting back to Mr. Marrone.

Peter Marrone

Management

Ladies and gentlemen thank you very much and good question has been asked about where we are with our balance sheet and our leverage and where we would expect to be. And part of the reason why there are moving parts is that we are on a run rate for production that is well in excess of where we are on our guidance. And that makes a huge and meaningful impact and change to the cash flow generation and the EBITDA of the company. We have a copper price that is in excess of where we are on our budget and where we were in the second quarter and the first half of the year and that will have an impact. So if we put all the building blocks together we get to a different result than we would if we take a static view of 940,000 ounces and only the realized metal prices that we have in the second quarter or the first half of the year. We're confident that we will not be at risk with our leverage ratio and we're confident that that continues to improve. And I hope we can also impart some confidence that we're not going to leave this without safety nets and part of those safety nets is making sure that we take advantage of monetization opportunities where we can, where there is the right value being reflected in those opportunities and, the first and foremost of course is making sure that we've got the technical aspects right. We now believe that we have the technical aspects right, and we're looking at all options including possible monetizations. So with that ladies and gentlemen thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time and we thank you for your participation.