Earnings Labs

Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

Q4 2011 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 23, 2012

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome to the Pan American Silver Q4 and Year-End 2011 Results Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] And the conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mrs. Kettina Cordero, Coordinator, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Kettina Cordero

Analyst

Thank you, operator, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Joining me here today are our President and CEO, Geoff Burns; our Chief Operating Officer, Steve Busby; our Executive Vice President of Geology and Exploration, Michael Steinmann; and our Chief Financial Officer, Rob Doyle. I would like to start today's call by reminding our listeners that this call cannot be reproduced or retransmitted without our consent and by indicating that certain of the statements and information in this call will constitute forward-looking statements and forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable securities laws. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, are forward-looking statements. These statements reflect the company's current views with respect to future events and are necessarily based upon a number of assumptions and estimates that, while considered reasonable by the company, are inherently subject to significant business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties and contingencies. Many known and unknown factors could cause actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, and the company has made assumptions and estimates based on or related to many of these factors. We encourage investors to refer to the cautionary language included in the most recent news release dated February 22, 2012, and as well as those factors identified under the caption Risks Related to Pan American's Business in the company's Form 40-F and annual information form. Investors are cautioned against contributing undue certainty or reliance on forward-looking statements, and the company does not intend or assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements or information, other than as required by law. I will now turn the call over to Geoff Burns, President and CEO.

Geoffrey A. Burns

Analyst · CTK Chicago Partners

Thank you, Kettina. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Pan American Silver's 2011 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call. This morning, we will be discussing our fourth quarter and full-year operating and financial results that were released earlier, provide you with our forecast for 2012, update you on our year-end silver reserves and resources and future exploration programs, as well as on the progress of our development projects. In addition, I will talk briefly about our proposed acquisition of Minefinders and their flagship property, the Dolores mine in Mexico. As is our custom, I will begin with some general remarks before passing the call to Steve, Michael and Rob, who will provide you more detailed commentary. I’d like to start by letting you know that yesterday our Board of Directors approved a 50% increase in our quarterly dividend from $0.025 per share to $0.0375 per share per quarter. The payment of our first cash dividend of 2012 will be made on or about Monday, March 19, to holders of record of our common shares as of the close of business on March 5. It is very rewarding and a true reflection of the financial success we have been enjoying at Pan American to be able to increase our dividend for the second time since we first started paying it a little over 2 years ago. In addition to returning cash to our shareholders directly through our dividends, we have also been returning cash by way of a normal course issuer bid, which we announced on August 26 of last year, wherein we could buy up to 5% of our issued and outstanding shares. As Rob will describe in a few moments, we have been actively reproaching some of our common shares and continue to do so…

Steven L. Busby

Analyst · Cannacord

Thank you, Geoff, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Despite coming out of the third quarter of 2011 in very good shape to achieve our aggressive production and cash cost guidance, we did face 3 specific challenges that disrupted our normally predictable operating performance in the fourth quarter of 2011. Two of these challenges occurred at our Manantial Espejo mine, where an unexpected ball mill bearing failure led to a 2-week plant shutdown in the poor mobile mine equipment availability we've been experiencing due to the heightened restrictions on importations in Argentina, which impaired the flow of spare parts and led to reduced mine production. In addition, we made a decision to interrupt mine sequencing at Alamo Dorado in order to allow safe access for exploration drilling of our Phase 3 pit expansion, which allowed us to add a full year of reserves to the life-of-mine plan, but limited our ability to mine new ore during the quarter. As a consequence, our consolidated silver production in the fourth quarter, as Geoff mentioned, was 5.3 million ounces at a cost of $11.18 per ounce, bringing our full-year silver production to 21.9 million ounces at a cost of $9.44 per ounce. Our by-product metal production was 78,000 ounces of gold, 35,000 tonnes of zinc, 11,700 tonnes of lead and 3,100 tonnes of copper. We are finding it quite challenging to adapt our Manantial Espejo operation to the heightened importation restrictions in Argentina, where it has become very time-consuming to import the necessary spare parts, particularly for our mobile mining fleets, despite enormous efforts from ourselves and our primary equipment suppliers. Our mobile mine equipment availabilities are running well below expectations, and this has caused shortfalls in mining rates, delaying access to anticipated higher grade ores. In addition to increasing our efforts to…

Michael Steinmann

Analyst

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. 2011 was yet another successful brownfield exploration year for us. It drove over 150,200 meters at our 7 operations and discovered 29.3 million ounces of new, proven and probable silver mineral reserves, more than replacing the 24.7 million contained ounces we mined during 2011. As of January 1, 2012, the company had a proven and probable reserve of 235.3 million ounces of silver and 618,000 ounces of gold, representing an increase of 2% to our silver reserve ounces year-over-year, net of 2011 production. La Colorada was again at the forefront of reserve replacement, adding 10.6 million ounces of new silver reserves to our books. This more than replaced the 4.8 million ounces we mined and added an additional 2 years of mine life. La Colorada has provided impressive reserve growth over the last 3 years, contributing almost 39 million ounces of new reserves for the company and has become our second largest silver reserve. Mine life has been extended substantially over the last years, reaching now over 9 years at current production levels. Compared to last year, La Colorada's proven and probable reserves grew 15% to 44.1 million ounces, mostly from sulfide mineralization. Most of the major structures will remain open at depth to the East and will be target for further exploration in 2012. Drilling will continue with the program of over 21,000 meters. La Colorada has been a real success story. The veins are extremely continuous and so a remarkable vertical expansion of up to now over 600 meters. These metal grades are increasing with depth and silver grades remain high. I'm also looking forward to exploring the deep skarn potential as part of the 2012 exploration program, 200 to 300 meters below the current production levels. Another highlight…

Robert G. Doyle

Analyst · Cannacord

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Our financial results in Q4 and for the full 2011 year were extremely robust, including several new financial records for Pan American. Annual sales were $855.3 million, an increase of 32% of our 2010 sales, driven primarily by higher realized prices for ore metals, partially offset by decreased quantities of metals sold. Mine operating earnings in 2011 increased to a record $409.1 million, an increase of 70% over the prior year, as growth in sales significantly outweighed increases in cost of sales. The company generated record adjusted earnings after adjusting for the derivative mark-to-market gain on its warrants of $252.3 million or $2.37 per share, more than double the comparable number in 2010. Cash flow from operations was at a record $359.5 million or $3.38 per share, a 48% increase from 2010. Determined to return value to shareholders and in the context of these record financial results, the company announced its intention to purchase up to approximately 5.4 million of our common shares under a normal course issuer bid, representing up to 5% of Pan American's issued and outstanding shares in August of 2011. Thus far, under the share buyback program, we have purchased approximately 3.6 million shares at an average price of $26.20 or a total consideration of about $94 million. In addition, the company continued to pay quarterly dividends of $0.025 per share, thereby, paying $10.7 million in dividends to our shareholders during 2011. On every financial metric, 2011 was our best year ever at Pan American. The exuberant precious metal price environment that we saw in 2011 drove the company's strong financial performance relative to 2010, partially offset by higher operating costs and lower volumes of metals sold. It is remarkable to see a more than $200 million increase in revenues in…

Geoffrey A. Burns

Analyst · CTK Chicago Partners

Thanks, Rob. Before opening up the call to questions, I wanted to provide some comments and thoughts on 3 specific things: the first is increasing operating costs; the second, our Navidad project in Argentina and the changing operating environment in that country; and three, our proposed acquisition of Minefinders. First, operating costs. In my almost 30 years in this business, I have never witnessed the magnitude of cost pressure we are facing, and it's not just Pan American. As many of you on the phone know, it is an industry-wide phenomenon. From increasing royalties and government takeaways, many of which are geared directly to metal prices, to rising labor costs and increased supply and energy costs, controlling our expenses has become a tremendous challenge and one that we are totally focused on. But our arsenal is limited, and we are seeing real and significant per tonne increases in the cost of mining and processing. But -- and this, in my opinion, is a critical focus, as Rob has just outlined in detail, our margins have never been stronger. The increase in the price of gold and silver has, at least to this point, outpaced the cost escalation we have seen. Now looking to Argentina, where I just returned from a visit a couple of weeks ago. There is no doubt that the federal government and the provinces are now vocally supporting mining. The reversal of the ban on the use of sodium cyanide in Rio Negro, where our Calcatreu project is located, bears witness to this fact. As does the aped [ph] that was signed just last week with the federal government and the governors of 10 of the provinces in Argentina to form a coalition in support of the mining industry. While worth noting, Martin Buzzi, the governor of…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Ralph Profiti of Crédit Suisse. Ralph M. Profiti - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Rob, you mentioned the deterioration and less favorable terms of some of these silver-rich copper concentrates in Peru. I was wondering if you could help us quantify the impact. Are these mine-specific issues related to penalties or just flow-through on price participation of the silver price? And I'm just trying to reconcile why there's such a difference between what we're seeing in the commercial terms for copper concentrates.

Robert G. Doyle

Analyst · Cannacord

Sure, Ralph. There's a lot of different variables, of course, going to concentrate contract. But I think the single biggest deterioration that we've seen is certainly in the silver refining charges for any concentrates above somewhere like 8 kilos of silver contained. So that also applies to lead. It's not specific to copper, and so -- whereas historically, we've seen refining charges somewhere in the $0.50 range likely. Now we're seeing it more expressed as a percentage of price, so up to 8% or even up to 12% of price. So you could be seeing much, much higher refining charges on a per ounce basis. That's probably the biggest single movement. The TCs really haven't -- are not that material on the tonnage that we produce, very distinct from the standard copper market where the high silver values are not evident. Ralph M. Profiti - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: That's helpful. If I can just ask a follow-up on Morococha, where we've seen sort of grade deterioration, particularly in Q4, where you're now substantially below the reserve grade. Just wondering what the roadmap looks like there. Can this mine ever get back to the 170 grams per tonne range that historically was the peak grade? And secondly, with regards to throughput, as you finish transition and the infrastructure improvements, is the right number going forward sort of the 1,600 to 1,700 tonnes per day rate?

Steven L. Busby

Analyst · Cannacord

Yes, Ralph, this is Steve Busby. First off, yes, we do anticipate grades to return back to the reserve grades. We are seeing lower grades during the last part of 2011 pretty much by design. We did pull out of 3 high grade areas that we normally mine at Morococha, the Morro Solar area and the Yacumina area. We pulled out of those areas to allow us to better define the ore zones and go in with a more mechanized mining method and more productive and better approach to mining those areas than what we had been using in the past, which was conventional narrow vein cut-and-fill styles. So as those areas start to come back online, which we'll see over the course of 2012 into 2013, we are anticipating grades to come back into the reserves-type grades that we carry for the mine. In terms of throughputs, we currently see probably about, I would say, a 3-year ramp to see higher throughputs. To get back over into the high grade Yacumina, we have to complete this critical [indiscernible] 400-level development. And that's about a 2-year development to get over there and come back under that ore deposit, and then we have to develop the stopes and start the stope mining in that area. So we show, in our plan, kind of the ramp-up, if you will, over the next 3 years or so to the old style throughput range.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Gary S. Lundgren of CTK Chicago Partners.

Gary Lundgren

Analyst · CTK Chicago Partners

I would like to know what -- how the mine plan is coming for La Preciosa, and if you think that, that will be developed on time. And what your thoughts are with that?

Geoffrey A. Burns

Analyst · CTK Chicago Partners

We're currently looking at the PEA and revising it based on some additional information that we received from some of our technical consultants, relative to the structural integrity of the mine plan or the rocks surrounding the mine plan that we have put together. And that's leading us to change, look at how we're going to mine that operation. And it's probably going to take us close to, I'm going to say, the end of the first quarter to have completed our studies and then completed our assessment of that. At which point, we will move more directly to a full feasibility study. But until we can complete that first part of the exercise, we really can't go full tilt on the feasibility study.

Gary Lundgren

Analyst · CTK Chicago Partners

So when do you anticipate a full feasibility study done if, by the end of the first quarter, the other work is completed?

Geoffrey A. Burns

Analyst · CTK Chicago Partners

It will have to come after that. It's probably another number of months post completion of what I'll call or what we're calling a scoping study before we can complete a full feasibility.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from John Kratochwil of Cannacord.

John Kratochwil - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division

Analyst · Cannacord

I've got a quick -- a couple of quick questions. First of all, taxes in Peru, has there been any discussion on what those -- the new tax rates might be? Or has any decision been made on that?

Robert G. Doyle

Analyst · Cannacord

Yes. The new tax regime was introduced late last year in Peru. In our particular case, there hasn’t had a material impact on our financial outlook at all in Peru.

John Kratochwil - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division

Analyst · Cannacord

Okay. And then moving on to operating costs, I mean, looking at Huaron, Morococha, specifically, the costs -- the total cash costs are expected to come up quite a bit in 2012. Is that something that we should be expecting going forward life-of-mine? Or are you expecting cash costs to come down in 2013 and going forward?

Steven L. Busby

Analyst · Cannacord

Yes, John, this is Steve. It certainly -- as Geoff mentioned, cost controls are our primary focus at these operations right now. The cost increases that we see reflect 2 things. One, it reflects an increase in our development -- underground development rates to access new ores. We were doing more underground development to ensure that we have adequate ore supplies relative to the ore tonnes we mine, as well as the 11% cost escalations that we've estimated between what we saw in 2011 and what we expect in 2012. We do intend to try to find better ways to mine, better ways to process more efficiently, better ways to treat our concentrates, as Rob mentioned before, which is driving a big part of those costs as well, those cost increases. We have to find new ways of doing things, and that's what we intend to do. It's kind of an engineering approach to changing the way we do things. But to predict where that will come, we can't make a prediction on that right now.

John Kratochwil - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division

Analyst · Cannacord

Yes, no, understood. So, I mean, Morococha, should we expect kind of -- I know you can't go life-of-mine, but 2013-ish, I don't know how far the outlook you have. But should we be expecting more in the high teens then per ounce?

Steven L. Busby

Analyst · Cannacord

Yes, I mean, clearly, Morococha, as the grade comes up and the production rate comes up, the unit cost per ounce will certainly come down. And we expect it to come down into the ranges that we're on. They're very similar minds when you look at them -- into those kind of mid-teens type ranges.

John Kratochwil - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division

Analyst · Cannacord

Okay. And then, finally, Quiruvilca, is there any potential to reopen and get production going on in there? They've got lots of reserves remaining. So I was just wondering what the potential is for that.

Geoffrey A. Burns

Analyst · Cannacord

I think we're -- to be blunt, we've included in 2012 only the first quarter of production for Quiruvilca, and we're looking at some strategic options. As we've mentioned in there, we might go looking at the pricing and looking at where our costs are. We might put it on care and maintenance. We're also looking at potentially divesting that asset. I mean, it's just such a non-core piece of our business, frankly, in terms of the number of ounces is now contributing and the margins, which is now contributing, that we're -- I guess the nicest way to put it is, I'm not sure we would do anyone the best favor by exhausting what's left in the reserve there at these price levels.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Chris Lichtenheldt of UBS.

Chris Lichtenheldt - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS

Just a few questions. First, thanks for addressing the situation in Argentina. Obviously, that's pretty topical. And I know we're waiting for the feasibility on Navidad, hopefully, later this year. But given the inflation that you talked about over the past few years and now, further complicating the issue would be the import restrictions. Can you talk a little bit about what sorts of things you might be looking at doing to try to combat that inflation against large CapEx potentially there?

Steven L. Busby

Analyst · UBS

Yes, Chris, this is Steve. It's a very good question. We are tackling out on several fronts. One opportunity that we see right now that looks very interesting to us is the various ore types that we have. And we have 8 different pits that we're looking at, at Navidad with 2 different ore types, and they vary in hardness. We have a very hard ore at Loma de La Plata, we have a very soft ore at Galena Hill and Calcite Hill and Calcite Northwest and others. And when we ran the PEA, we ran everything at a fixed throughput of 15,000 tonnes a day. We know when we're processing the softer ores that, that plant is capable of producing a significantly higher throughput rate. So we're looking at that and trying to incorporate that into a mine plan that makes sense. And we think that's going to offer substantial savings, it will shorten the mine life, increase production per year, offer substantial savings in G&A costs and our fixed costs. So we're excited about that. The other thing, we're doing a lot of project optimization. We're combining a lot of facilities where we used to have kind of camp facilities for the operators and camp facilities for the constructors. We're kind of trying to bring a lot of that infrastructure and ancillaries together and reduce the overall construction cost of those things in a number of areas that we're seeing opportunities that we can improve that we're tackling right now.

Chris Lichtenheldt - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS

Okay, that's great. And some of the materials and equipment you'll need, will you be able to get it from outside of the country to alleviate some of the in-country inflation? Or how have these import restrictions hindered that potential?

Geoffrey A. Burns

Analyst · UBS

Yes, Chris, I think as we were -- with the law change and effective EIA, I think we'll have to have some very distinct conversations with the government to make sure that they will allow us to bring in the construction gear, as well as the, I'm going to say, the processing equipment and the actual operating equipment that we're going to need to run Navidad. And that's a discussion that is pending into the future. I think it would be very, very difficult to move forward with the size of project that we're looking at without some absolute surety that we'll be able to get the equipment in that we need in order to build it. But that discussion -- and I think that we'll be open to that sort of discussion once we're in actually a position to start to build. I think the second thing that is sitting there, having been now in Argentina and operating for a number of years and seen what's happened certainly over the last 2 years, there is -- seems to me to be somewhat of a disconnect between the rates of inflation within Argentina that we're seeing and the exchange rate relative to the U.S. dollar. And there can be no doubt that some of the import restrictions, no doubt that the requirements to bring revenues back into the country have a whole lot to do with the Argentine Central Bank's need and requirement to have U.S. dollars. So my expectation would be that, over time, that we would see that exchange rate, I'm going to say, more equilibrate to the balance that we're seeing from the rest of the world. And when that happens, and I think it's something we're going to see over some time, it is going to very much change that operating environment relative to the capital costs and relative to future operating costs. But that event remains in the future. And it's an event that -- it's one we can't really predict. But more than anything, more than anything, that probably is going to be the key to controlling some of the inflationary pressures and cost escalations we're seeing.

Chris Lichtenheldt - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS

Okay, great. That's very good information. Just the last thing I'll ask on that, I mean, is the timing of the potential currency re-rating something you could wait for? I mean, would that factor into your timing or you just go ahead as you can?

Geoffrey A. Burns

Analyst · UBS

I think it's something that we would have to very carefully assess. It's – full on, it would be a very difficult decision for ourselves or for that, any company to construct a new project in the face of a 25% inflationary headwind. That is a very, very difficult proposition for anybody in spite of, in our case, the Navidad being a world-class silver deposit. That is an extreme challenge, and one that I'm very hopeful when we get to that point, we'll see some other changes within the structure in Argentina that will allow us to move very quickly to construction.

Chris Lichtenheldt - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst · UBS

Great. Just a couple of last quick housekeeping. On the income statement, Rob, you have $10-million-or-so of other income. Can you just let me know what that is?

Robert G. Doyle

Analyst · UBS

Sure, Chris. About $4.5 million of that is proceeds we received from Chinalco relative to our deal with them to part fund the relocation of our Morococha facilities. And then there's about $4 million of provisions that were released relative to some severance that's not required and also some discounting of our BAT receivable, which we had put -- last year, we put it into a long-term receivable and took a present value hit through the income statement, given our really excellent track record in 2011 of recovering BAT both in Argentina and Bolivia. We've now reclassified those receivables into current assets and have been able to reverse that present value discount.

Operator

Operator

There are no more questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Burns for concluding comments.

Geoffrey A. Burns

Analyst · CTK Chicago Partners

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us again this morning for our earnings conference call. We look forward to talking to you again, post the completion of our transaction and at the end of the first quarter of 2012. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.