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Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

Q3 2011 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 9, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Pan American Silver Corporation's Third Quarter 2011 Results Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] and the conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mrs. Kettina Cordero, Coordinator, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Kettina Cordero

Analyst

Thank you, operator, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Joining me here today are our President and CEO, Geoff Burns; our Chief Operating Officer, Steve Busby; our Executive Vice President of Geology and Exploration, Michael Steinmann; and our Chief Financial Officer, Rob Doyle. I would like to start today's call by reminding our listeners that this call cannot be reproduced or retransmitted without our consent and by indicating that certain of the statements and information in this call will constitute forward-looking statements and forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable securities laws. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements. These statements reflect the company's current views with respect to future events, and they are necessarily based upon a number of assumptions and estimates that, while considered reasonable by the company, are inherently subject to significant business, economic, competitive, political and social uncertainties and contingencies. Many known and unknown factors could cause actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, and the company has made assumptions and estimates based on or related to many of these factors. We encourage investors to refer to the cautionary language included in the most recent news release dated November 8, 2011, and as well as those factors identified under the caption Risks Related to Pan American's Business in the company's Form 40-F and annual information form. Investors are cautioned against attributing undue certainty or reliance on forward-looking statements, and the company does not intend or assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements or information, other than as required by law. With that, I will now turn the call over to Geoff Burns, President and CEO.

Geoffrey A. Burns

Analyst

Thank you, Kettina. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Pan American Silver's 2011 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. This morning we will be discussing our third quarter operating and financial results that were released yesterday evening, provide you with our outlook for the remainder of 2011 and update you on our exploration programs as well as the progress of our development projects. As has become our custom, I will begin with some general remarks before passing the call to Steve, Michael and Rob, who will provide more detailed commentary. I would like to start by letting you know that yesterday, our Board of Directors approved the distribution of our fourth cash dividend for this year in the amount of $0.025 per share. The payment will be made effective on or about Monday, December 5, to holders of record of our common shares as of the close of business on Monday, November 21. In addition, return -- in addition to returning cash to our shareholders directly through our dividends, we have also been returning cash by way of a normal course issuer bid, which we announced on August 26, wherein we could buy up to 5% of our issued and outstanding shares. As Rob will describe in a few moments, we have been actively repurchasing some of our common shares. It is our opinion that the market price of our common shares doesn't fully reflect the underlying value of our mining operations and our future growth prospects, and as such, our shares represent an appealing investment for a portion of our excess cash flow. While we have significant capital requirements ahead of us with the pending development of Navidad, our major growth project, we remain very comfortable that we can meet this need as well as continue to directly…

Steven L. Busby

Analyst

Thank you, Geoff, and good morning. The third quarter of 2011 brought us a wealth of challenges that we are successfully confronting with our projects advancing very well and our operating teams adapting our business to the ever-changing political environments where we operate. As Geoff mentioned, our consolidated third quarter silver production, the 5.6 million ounces at a cash cost of $9.58 per ounce, was about 8% below our production expectation and 13% above our cash cost target. The largest contributor to our production shortfall and cost overrun came from a decision we made at our Morococha and Huaron mines in Peru to immediately demobilize roughly 25%, or 500, of our inefficient and ineffective contract miners in favor of enhancing our own employment with well-trained, safe and productive miners, whom we will develop ourselves using first-class miner training facilities that we have established at both of these sites. We had found that the quality and efficiency of the contract miners had severely degraded in the highly competitive environment that exists in Peru right now, and we were not accomplishing the production and advances needed to sustain our operations productively. Our idea is to focus quality contractors on major long-term development headings while developing trained and productive employees for stope mining that we will systematically convert as much as possible to more productive mechanized methods over the next few years. We will use our training facilities not only to recruit and develop new miners from the surrounding communities, but also to enhance the capabilities of our existing workforce. Despite suffering some production setbacks following this decision, we are extremely confident it is the right decision to maximize the long-term profitability of the Huaron and Morococha mines. These mines have both been in operation for nearly 100 years, and we see absolutely…

Michael Steinmann

Analyst

Thank you, Steve. Good morning. I'm sure you are eager to hear about the exploration results from explorations and projects. Like every quarter, I would like to start with some drill statistics. The last 3 months have been very productive. We passed the 100,000-meter mark in September and ended the quarter with 101,000 meters of drilling for our reserve and replacement program. We are at 76% completion, right on track of our plan, and have more than recovered from the shortfall we experienced at the beginning of the year. Including the project drilling at Navidad as well as the greenfield programs, we finished the first 9 months of the year with a total of 144,650 meters drilled or 84% of our 171,000-meter plan program. Now we have ended the quarter with nearly 19,500 meters, an impressive performance, which was topped by even more impressive results. The second largest program was executed at Manantial Espejo, our brownfield drilling and greenfield exploration around the mine, returned some spectacular results. Morococha and Huaron added another 12,900 meters or 9,000 meter, respectively. Due to the positive results we have encountered at La Colorada so far this year, we decided to expand the program by over 7,000 meters. There were plenty of reasons to increase drilling at La Colorada. During the quarter, the western end of our main structure in Candelaria returned many impressive results. For example, the hanging wall vein in level 535 where our drilling intersected 1.6 kilogram of silver over a width of 6.45 meters. The NC2 vein on the sulfide reported intersects of 8.89 meters at 685 grams of silver and 9.45 meters at 766 grams of silver, both with additional 3% to 9% lead and 5% to 6% zinc. The deeper we go, the more hanging and footwall splits appear…

Robert G. Doyle

Analyst

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. As Geoff mentioned, while Q3 was not the record-breaking quarters we have delivered in Q1 and Q2 of this year, from a financial perspective, it was still another extremely solid quarter. In addition to declaring another quarterly dividend, we generated adjusted earnings of $45.7 million after subtracting gains and derivatives, which translated to adjusted basic earnings per share of $0.42 compared to $0.26 for the corresponding period in 2010, a 62% increase. Mine operating earnings of $106.2 million, 73% higher than the mine operating earnings in the comparable period of 2010 and an implied gross margin of 48%. Cash flow from operations before working capital changes of $99.9 million, a 74% increase from the $57.6 million in the comparable quarter last year. Revenue increased by 34% to $220.6 million from Q3 2010 due to higher realized metal prices despite the significant reduction in quantities of silver sulfide [ph] . Base metals accounted for 86% of the sales during the quarter, up from 81% a year ago. Good results for Pan American but some way off what we delivered in Q2, so I'd like to mention several of the factors that prevented us from getting closer to our record mine operating earnings of $118.6 million and the record adjusted earnings per share of $0.71 that we saw in Q2. Firstly, earnings for Q3 were negatively impacted by a $12.5 million FX loss, which equates to $0.12 per share, predominantly on the portion of our treasury that we hold in Canadian dollars as the loonie declined sharply against the U.S. dollar in the latter part of September. Most of that move has subsequently reversed, and we continue to believe in our strategy to diversify up to half of our treasury in currencies other than the U.S. dollar.…

Geoffrey A. Burns

Analyst

Thanks, Rob. Before opening up the call to questions, I wanted to provide some comments on some of the recent events in Argentina. On October 23, Argentina held its federal elections and Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner secured a second term as President with a landslide victory. In addition, her FPV party, Frente para Victoria, also won the majority in the legislature. Three days later, on October 26, through a presidential decree, she announced that all oil, gas and mining exporters were going to be required to repatriate 100% of their sales receipts into Argentina. While we are still assessing the implications and the procedures we will have to follow under these new regulations and, ultimately, what impact they will have on our Manantial Espejo mine and our Navidad and Calcatreu development projects, at present, there are no new restriction placed on the repatriation of profits out of Argentina. Consequently, we currently believe that the likely impact will be in the form of some additional transaction fees, around 2% in total, on the conversion of our sales receipts into Argentine pesos and then on our net profits back into U.S. dollars before repatriation back out of Argentina. Perhaps more importantly, I view this development and other actions that have recently been announced as positive steps for the country. With her new and stronger mandate, Ms. Kirchner is starting to take the actions that are necessary to reign in an inflation rate that has been frankly -- or frankly been out of control over the last several years. It may take some time and some additional actions, but if she is successful in getting Argentine's inflation rate under control, it will be a hugely positive result long term for both our Manantial Espejo mine and for the development of our Navidad project. Lastly, there is no doubt that Cristina is pro-development, and with her FPV party in control nationally as well as in Chubut, we see this as an extremely favorable environment for the change in the mining law we need to see in Chubut for us to proceed with Navidad. We have and we will continue to keep the local communities around Navidad as well as the provincial government in Chubut completely informed of our progress, and I remain confident that our transparent approach and willingness to work with all the local stakeholders will be rewarded. With that, I'd now like to ask the operator to open the lines for questions and answers. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Profiti, Ralph of Credit Suisse. Ralph M. Profiti - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: Steve, in your prepared comments, you mentioned competition as one of the backdrops of seeing the decision to go with a more localized -- or sorry, a more company-specific labor force. Just wondering where that competition for labor is coming from. It's been well documented about, sort of, Peruvian growth and mining projects, but those are a number of years away. I wonder if you can expand on that little bit.

Steven L. Busby

Analyst

Yes, sure, Ralph. What we're seeing there is really from our neighboring mines, the primarily zinc and base metal mines. There has been some expansions. There have been one new zinc mine that I'm aware of, and they're really in the surrounding areas of where our workforce sits. And that's been our major competition there. Ralph M. Profiti - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: And can we get the current split between contract workers and company workers at both those operations? And maybe secondly, where does labor sit as a proportion of total costs at both those mines? And how do you see that evolving, say, in 2011 and '12 versus 2010?

Steven L. Busby

Analyst

Sure. Right now the split between contractors -- before we made these demobilization moves, the split was probably about 50% -- 50-50 to 60% contractors, 40% employees. Now where we see the costs? I mean if you look back over the last years, our labor costs in Peru were typically around 55% of our overall cost. As we start to mechanize and become more efficient in our operation, we anticipate that number to come down somewhat. But generally speaking, on narrow vein mines like this, that's the style of cost distribution we see with labor, and that labor includes contractors and our own labor.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Chris Lichtenheldt of UBS.

Chris Lichtenheldt - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

First, just wanted to touch base on costs. If we look at the cash cost guidance for the year, I think in the fourth quarter you'll have to beat third quarter significantly to get still even into the top end. So I know it's a bit of a noisy number with byproducts and everything, but can you give us some sense of where -- what will cause cash costs in the fourth quarter to be lower? Will it be better pricing, better byproducts or actual relief on mining costs?

Steven L. Busby

Analyst

Yes, Chris, I think the 2 -- well, 3 primary areas, the one is we did incur some costs to demobilize these contractors in Peru. We anticipate that cost to go away in the fourth quarter. We're still trying to assess -- they're still -- how much of that we actually incurred as a demobilization costs versus remobilizing and recruiting costs that were coming in, but we do anticipate a reduction there. Likewise, in Argentina, we incurred some costs, as I mentioned, for having to mobilize some contractors and some rental gear during the Q3 to overcome some equipment availability issues we've had. We're starting to see some relief from that. We are going to see some cost reductions there. And the third area that's probably the most important area is increase of gold production that we're forecasting down in Manantial Espejo, which obviously contributes a lot to our cash cost.

Chris Lichtenheldt - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division

Analyst

Okay, that's great. That's very helpful. Just secondly, I had another, maybe a disclosure question for Rob, and if this is too hairy for the call, you can always follow up with me after. But I'm just trying to understand, the earnings are probably still a little bit lighter than I would have expected even with the cash cost in production you reported, and just as an example, if I look at your mine-by-mine disclosure at Morococha, for example, cash costs were high at 18.78 fully loaded costs -- total costs per ounce were 22.56, but still well below what I would think the realized silver price is. Yet, that mine, you disclosed a net loss there. Is there any -- do you have any guidance to help me understand how you ended up realizing a loss there? Is that just timing of sales? You have any thoughts initially on that?

Robert G. Doyle

Analyst

Yes. Sure, Chris. We're happy to go through it in detail. Just to point out that, of course, the financial results are based on sales, as you say, as opposed to the operating results, which are on a production basis, so there could well be a timing difference with inventories there. Of course, the Peruvian mines were also hit particularly heavily with price adjustments in the quarter because of their concentrate production and exposure to the base metals, which came off with silver in the latter part of September. So the negative price adjustments certainly impacted the Peruvian operations more than our others.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There appears to be no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back over to Mr. Burns for any closing comments.

Geoffrey A. Burns

Analyst

Thank you, Operator, and thank you everyone for joining us again this morning for our earnings conference call. We look forward to talking to you in early 2012 when we're ready to release our final annual 2011 numbers. Thanks again.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.