Geoffrey A. Burns
Analyst · Trevor Turnbull from Scotia Capital
Thank you, Rob. Following the integration of the Dolores mine into our Mexican portfolio, we are providing revised consolidated production and cash cost forecast for the year. We expect the Dolores mine to produce 2.8 million to 3 million ounces of silver and almost 50,000 to 53,000 ounces of gold for Pan American's account in 2012, remembering we will only be consolidating Dolores' production from March 31 and forward. We expect cash cost at the mine to be in the $5 to $6 per ounce of silver range, net of gold byproduct credits. With this added production and with the first quarter now behind us, we are revising our production guidance for 2012 upward and now expect to produce 24.25 million to 25.5 million ounces of silver and 124,500 to 133,000 ounces of gold at a consolidated cash cost of $11.50 to $12.50 per ounce net of byproduct credits. I would like to take a moment to mention one thing that seems to be a growing trend within our sector, and that is to report a new metric called direct operating cash costs. Frankly, I'm not sure what that measure is, and it is not with keeping with be accepted silver industry standard for reporting cash costs, which include royalties, production taxes, transportation and treatments charges, as well as refining costs. These costs are significant cash expenses and are important part of the cash cost standard, which we continue to adhere to. Talking of costs, we are continuing to see cost pressures across our business segments, more severe in certain jurisdictions, and they continue to be an issue that we are focused on and will try to manage. As I said in our last call, I have never seen anything like this in my 30 years in the business, particularly as it relates to capital projects. Our options are limited, but we have made improvements at Huaron, where our cast cost declined by 8%. And the addition of the long life, low-cost mine, like Dolores, will help us manage our cash costs and expand our margins even more. For those of you on the call who are not aware, Dolores is currently operating as an open pit heap leach mine and has the capacity to produce 3 million to 4 million ounces of silver and 70,000 to 80,000 ounces of gold annually. While this was very attractive to us, it was not the only reason why we like this asset. We also like Dolores for its exploration and upside potential. As such, our immediate focus is to complete a scope-- as Steve mentioned, is to complete a scoping study for a mill option to potentially increase throughput and improve metal recoveries. And with a little exploration success, hopefully we will be able to extend Dolores' already long life of 17 years by significantly growing the deposit as both an open pit and potentially, an underground mine in the future. I would be remiss if I didn't provide some comments about our Navidad silver development project. As Steve mentioned, we are working to complete the feasibility study for the project, which we should see in the second half of this year. And I am optimistic that some of the infill and exploration drilling that we completed last year will add to the mineable resource we use in the PEA, which was released in late 2010. Navidad is a magnificent deposit, and we are hopeful that we will soon see the government of Chubut modify the mining law that will allow us to responsibly develop the project for the benefit of all stakeholders, our shareholders, the local community and the province of Chubut. Having said this, we are keenly aware of some of the headwinds that we are facing investment -- that are facing investment in Argentina at the moment, inflation and import restrictions in particular. However, we also believe that these circumstances are temporary. We are committed to Navidad and committed to unlocking the value of this deposit. But current circumstances dictate that our approach must be cautious, and we are currently evaluating a stage development plan which will allow us to proceed but minimize the initial capital investment. To summarize, we had a very positive and exciting start to 2012. We continued to perform well operationally and financially, and we have a pipeline of organic growth projects, the Dolores mill expansion and Navidad, which could double our production in the next 3 years. We have also taken steps to manage our geographic risks with the Dolores now in our portfolio. And by next year, over 50% of our silver production will be coming from Mexico. Most importantly, our financial strength continues to grow, and we expect to be able to fund our capital requirements for Navidad and Dolores through our operating cash flows. As for our main product and the fundamental reason why you invest in Pan American Silver, at this time last year, we have been through a roller coaster of a ride in the silver market when the price of silver reached a lofty height of nearly $50 per ounce before declining and settling in the $30 per ounce range. Most recently, metal prices have been further affected by the issues currently playing out in Europe. Current thinking by Gold Fields Mineral Services, the author of the annual silver survey, is that the short term price of silver will range between $28.70 and $32.90 per ounce. However, they have further expectations of a more decisive breakout to the upside before the end of this year with a forecasted high of approximately $40 in 2012. I'm not going to try and predict the future price of silver, but I firmly believe that the long-term fundamentals for silver are excellent, especially against the backdrop of continued currency devaluation. But perhaps more importantly, the fundamentals of our company, our resources, our growth profile, our people, our financial strength, which are the keys to our success, have never been stronger. It is on the back of our history of proven performance and our strong fundamentals that we expect to be able to continue to deliver real long-term value to our shareholders. And with that, operator, could I ask you to open the lines for questions.