Albert Stroucken
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thank you, John, and good morning. Our second quarter 2011 adjusted earnings were $0.59 per share, down considerably from $0.84 last year. Clearly, we are disappointed with these results, and our performance was unacceptable. Heading into the second quarter, we expected our earnings would be in line with the prior year despite elevated cost inflation. However, we incurred significantly higher manufacturing costs, which more than offset the benefit of higher shipments on a global basis. Market demand has started to rebound after several years of unfavorable trends in our business. Shipments in tonnes were up more than 6% in the second quarter, driven by recent acquisitions as well as organic growth. In fact, demand was up across all key end-use categories on a global basis. This should have been a very favorable environment for O-I, given our work in the past to create significant operating leverage from improving demand. However, we incurred much higher manufacturing costs due to elevated cost inflation, production issues in North America and market challenges in Australia and New Zealand. Cost inflation accounted for most of the additional manufacturing costs. While inflation was not a surprise, energy prices in Europe have increased faster and to a greater extent than we expected heading into the year. And we have discussed this trend in detail during previous earnings calls. We have implemented an energy surcharge in Europe to help offset the impact of the most recent spike in energy pricing. The combination of our surcharge this year and expected higher selling prices next year should fully offset the impact of 2011 cost inflation on a global basis. In North America, poor operating performance resulted in manufacturing inefficiencies and supply chain issues. As a result, we incurred higher production and logistics costs as well as additional expenses for product loss. Challenging market conditions in Australia and New Zealand resulted in sharply lower demand in those countries. And in response, we reduced our production to match supply with demand, which led to a higher unabsorbed fixed cost in Asia-Pacific. As we respond with urgency to these issues, my leadership team and I are focusing on our core operations to restore high productivity level. We also need to significantly improve our ability to generate a more accurate business forecast. Serving our customers and maximizing our long-term earnings are our highest priority. Despite our disappointing operating performance, we can point to a number of positive developments this past quarter. Organic growth was 3%, excluding the impact of a much lower demand in Australia and New Zealand. We generated $97 million of free cash flow, and we acquired the remaining interest in our 7 Brazil operations from our minority partner. O-I will now fully benefit from future growth and profit improvement in the attractive Brazilian market. And finally, we refinanced debt to extend maturities and increase financial flexibility. Looking to the third quarter, we expect shipments will be up in all regions and end uses on a year-over-year basis. As we focus on fully restoring our operating performance, we will still incur higher manufacturing costs during this transition period. And as a result, we expect third quarter adjusted earnings will improve from our second quarter results but likely lag the prior year. Looking to the full year, we have revised our 2011 free cash flow target for a number of reasons. In Australia, we are restructuring our footprint in response to changes in demand. This will result in additional capital spending and severance costs. In North America, we will rebuild inventory levels to avoid repeating significant supply chain disruptions as demand improves. And in Europe, we expect some restructuring costs as part of the purchase price for our recent VDL acquisition. And finally, we will invest in capacity expansion in South America to improve margins and support growth. As a result, our 2011 free cash flow target has been reduced from $300 million to between $200 million and $250 million. Now I will review each of our segments, and I'll start with Europe, our largest region, on Chart #3. Europe performed as expected. Operating profit was $107 million compared with $104 million in the second quarter of 2010. The benefit of favorable currency translation and higher shipments offset elevated cost inflation. Shipments were up mid-single digits in Europe as demand grew across all key end-use segments. Selling prices were flat with the prior year, reflecting the annual contracts negotiated last year when supply demand conditions and inflation levels were much softer and those we are experiencing today. In response to the higher cost inflation, we have successfully negotiated energy surcharges of approximately $15 million to $20 million in the second half of the year. Overall, we expect to fully pass on the impact of 2011 cost inflation on Europe to our surcharge this year and higher prices next year. And in the future, we plan to include prospective inflation provisions into our annual customer agreements there. Several days ago, we announced the acquisition of VDL, which operates a single glass plant in Vergeze, France, located near the Nestlé Waters' Perrier bottling facility. We have strengthened our strategic relationship with Nestlé and are now the leading glass container provider for both their Perrier and San Pellegrino brands in France and Italy, respectively. Moving to Chart 4. Our South American operations also performed as expected and generated operating profit of $53 million in the second quarter, up from $49 million last year. Volumes were up more than 35% year-over-year. Our strategic acquisitions last year accounted for most of this growth. But the region also posted double-digit organic growth driven by Brazil, Argentina and Peru. But the benefit of higher shipments was mostly offset by higher costs. So segment operating -- sorry -- segment profit margin was about 18%, which was lower than we typically see in this region for a few reasons. First, we incurred additional cost inflation. While our second quarter prices were flat with the prior year, we expect to recapture cost inflation through higher prices beginning in the third quarter. Second, our Brazilian operations were sold out, and we shipped glass from other countries in the region to meet growing Brazilian demand. These shipments had associated freight and importation penalties, that allowed us to meet growing demand before we commit more capital for expansion in the region. Throughout the glass [indiscernible] situation, we incurred some costs to realign machinery and increase capacity in Brazil. And to support continued growth, we will further debottleneck our operations there. We are also planning a Greenfield plant in South America to support our customers' long-term growth needs. And finally, as I mentioned already, we bought out our minority partner in our Southern Brazil operations, and we expect this transaction to be accretive in 2011. Moving to North America on Chart #5. Heading into the second quarter, we had expected higher earnings compared to the prior year. We anticipated stronger shipments combined with footprint initiative sales. However, North American's operating profit was $56 million, down from $87 million in the prior year. Most of the decline was due to $26 million from production inefficiency, higher freight costs and product loss. Due to a number of operating issues, we were not able to meet all of our customers' needs. And as a result, shipments in North America were down slightly despite fundamental strength in all key end-use markets other than the mega beer brand. We have always prided ourselves on our operational excellence and our ability to meet or exceed our customers' expectations. We failed to meet those standards in the second quarter, but we expect to significantly improve our service level in the back half of the year. The graph on Chart 5 depicts the chain of events that led to our issues in the region this quarter, and keep in mind that the last result [ph] does not represent specific data. The blue line represents our effective manufacturing capacity, while the yellow line illustrates seasonal demand pattern. We permanently closed 2 plants in North America in mid-2010 to realign capacity with lower demand, following the conclusions of contract renegotiations with key customers. Given soft demand last year, we were focused on efficient working capital levels, and we maintained tight inventories as we entered 2011. And the green dotted line represents inventory levels to show relative trend. But again, it's illustrative. Then as 2011 progressed, several things happened. First, demand started to pick up in North America, but the growth was in wine, spirits and craft beer and not in mega beer brand. This mix created additional complexities that we underestimated. For example, more SKUs result in shorter production runs, which require greater flexibility in our plant. We struggled with a greater number of job changes at several plants and did not achieve the same production efficiency that we typically see with the mega beer brands. Second, we had a number of production interruptions that required downtime for repairs. As you can see, this downtime coincided with seasonally stronger demand. As a result, we did not achieve the productivity improvements that we expected in the second quarter. And third, longer lead times on repair parts delayed the anticipated restart of 2 previously idle furnaces, so we did not get the much needed additional capacity as fast as we had expected. As a result of these issues, tight inventory became short inventory at several locations. And to serve our customers, we had to reallocate production to other facilities in North America. Now this in turn disrupted those plants' normal manufacturing patterns, which led to incremental costs. Since production sometimes occurred to plants hundreds of miles away from the customer, we also incurred significant higher freight cost, all of which unfortunately coincided with spiking diesel costs. You can see the domino affect that started with production issues early in the quarter. Now to address these issues, we have initiated a plan to both restore our inventories to sustainable levels and improve production efficiency over the course of the second half of the year. First, we're taking immediate action to rebuild inventory. We restarted our 2 previously idle furnaces, and they were up and running by early July. This added approximately 5% more production capacity to the region. We are also leveraging our global footprint by shifting glass from other regions to increase North American inventories by about 5%. And finally, our North American plants will, of course, run at high operating rates through the end of the year. As a result of these actions, we expect to rebuild North American inventories and reduce the risk of significant future supply chain complication. Over the next 6 months, we are focusing on returning to operational excellence in North America. Most of our inefficiencies during the second quarter was tied to discrete production issues, which we do not expect to recur. Nevertheless, we are conducting thorough manufacturing audits of our 19 North American facilities to determine if there are any unidentified production risks. Of course, we will take the necessary actions to remediate if anything is found. Finally, we are actively collaborating with our customers to improve the SKU accuracy of their demand forecast, as well as our production forecast. This will then help avoid the many unplanned changes and changeovers that compromise productivity. A more effective supply chain will benefit both O-I and our customers. And for future customer contracts, we will look to include provision from forecast accuracy to create clarity about supply commitments and ownership of cost variances. To avoid additional disruption in this difficult period, we have delayed our SAP implementation in North America until early 2012. Let me reiterate, our second quarter performance in North America was unacceptable and full remediation of these issues is priority number one. Now moving from North America to Asia-Pacific on Chart 6. Heading into the second quarter, we expected our Asia-Pacific profits would be down from the prior year as a result of lower demand in Australia and New Zealand. And we've been discussing this trend over the past few quarters. However, actual results were significantly lower than anticipated. Asia-Pacific earned $9 million, down $22 million from the prior year. Although total regional shipments were up slightly from the prior year, all growth was attributable to our 2010 acquisitions in China. Our shipments of wine and beer bottles in Australia and New Zealand were down nearly 20% from the prior year. This resulted in $7 million of lower profit contribution from sales. Two macroeconomic headwinds drove the precipitous drop in shipments in these 2 countries. Stronger currencies have negatively impacted wine exports and led to some fundamentally different approaches by our wine customers to their future business models. Domestically, beer consumption was down considerably as high interests and savings rates have lowered consumers' disposable income, and this has cost a severe cutback in consumer spending. While we anticipated lower shipments, demand trends in the wine and beer markets deteriorated faster than expected in the second quarter. In particular, Australia wine producers reduced in-country bottling given the dramatic increase in the value of the Australian dollar. In response, we reduced production to balance supply with lower demand, resulting in $10 million of unabsorbed manufacturing costs on top of the loss sales contribution from lower costs. Given these developments, we are taking the following actions. First, we recently named Steve Bramlage as the new President of the Asia-Pacific region, who replaced Greg Ridder who is leaving the company. Greg will report to me and serve as a member of the global leadership team. He previously served as the Treasurer and Vice President of Finance for O-I, and more recently as the General Manager of our New Zealand operations. We believe Steve will provide a fresh perspective to address the market challenges in the region. Second, some of the issues that we face in Australia are longer term in nature. And as a result, we will need to properly align our capacity with changing long-term demand. We will restructure our Australian operations in several phases. In July, we implemented the first phase by permanently closing one machine line in Australia. And for the immediate future, other supply and demand imbalances will be managed through continued temporary downtime. The next phase of our restructuring plan will likely require additional permanent capacity adjustment in Australia. This plan must ensure that we retain the right capabilities and invest in the necessary technologies for our customers. Also we need to maintain flexibility to meet future demand levels in the event of an upswing in the market. Australia is now entering its seasonally strongest period, so it's prudent to delay restructuring activities until later this year. And we expect that restructuring will conclude by the mid-2012. This restructuring in this region may result in up to $50 million of capital expenditures and severance costs. Up to half of this cost will be incurred in 2011, and the balance would fall into 2012. Overall, these actions should improve our cost profile in Australia. And I will keep you updated on our decisions regarding the scope and implementation of restructuring activities in future earnings calls. Now moving to Chart 7. We remain committed to our long-term strategy, which continues to deliver value for O-I. For example, our focus on operational excellence has generated $245 million of savings between 2007 and 2010, driven by our footprint realignment initiative. As we refocus on our core operations, we have been redesigning our organizational structure in each region. We are bringing manufacturing and supply chain functions under one regionally integrated operations list. This structure will remove the functional clutters in our operations and provide a more holistic approach to optimize the entire process flow. And this will help maximize operational efficiency and provide better visibility and control over production costs. Regarding strategic and profitable growth, in 2010, we acquired 10 plants located in fast-growing emerging markets that are generating an average operating profit margin of approximately 20% and creating a significant growth momentum. Last March, our new go-to-market approach has enhanced the effectiveness of our organic marketing efforts and has boosted our growth in South America 5 to 7 percentage points above average market growth. We are already seeing success in our other regions as we replicate this initiative globally. New capabilities like Vortex or Lean+Green wine bottles and Black Glass are driving additional sales in all regions. While our strategies are driving value, a number of other factors have undermined our ability to generate the improved financial performance that we expected when we set our longer-term targets back in 2010. And these factors include, first, the economic downturn impacted the markets that we serve longer than we expected at that time, especially with continued high unemployment in the developed market. And also the mega beer brands have not recovered as we anticipated when we were exiting the recession. Second, the expropriation of our highly profitable Venezuelan operations and of course, throughout the recent challenge with our operating performance that I discussed in detail with you. And finally, I believe that at present, our current earnings profile does not support acquisitions of the magnitude, speed and impact that we discussed at the last Investor Day. And given these developments, it is unlikely that we will achieve the longer-term targets that we discussed early last year, and we are currently revisiting these targets. I will now turn the call over to Ed.