Dave Bauer
Analyst · Chris Sighinolfi with Jefferies. Your line is open
Thanks John and good morning everyone. The third quarter of fiscal 18 was an excellent quarter for National Fuel with per share earnings up 6% compared to the prior year. Last night’s release does a good job detailing the driver’s relative to last year, so I won’t repeat them here. Our $0.73 per share of earnings was a bit higher than Street estimates for the quarter and there were three main items that contributed to that out performance. First, Seneca’s $0.84 per Mcfe of LOE for the quarter was below the low end of the range of our $0.90 to $1 guidance range. A number of individually small items, all of which were in our favor contributed to this decrease, including lower steam fuel in California and lower utilities and labor expenses in both divisions. We have a few maintenance projects planned that will cause Seneca’s fourth quarter per unit LOE to be in the low $0.90 area, but I feel comfortable lowering our fiscal ‘18 LOE guidance to a range of $0.90 to $0.95 per Mcfe. Looking to fiscal ’19, as low cost east division natural gas production ramps, we expect LOE will continue to decline and forecast a range of $0.85 to $0.90 per Mcfe. Second, at our regulated subsidiaries, O&M expense was several million dollars lower than we had forecast for the quarter. Much of this is related to the timing of spending between the last two quarters of the fiscal year. For example, because winter weather extended well into April, utility restoration work that typically starts in that month was pushed to later in the year. Also, at the pipeline companies certain maintenance projects that had been originally forecast for the third quarter will now take place in the fourth quarter. Even considering these timing issues, our team has done a great job controlling costs. As a result, we now expect full year O&M expense at the regulated companies should be pretty much flat compared to fiscal ‘17. Third, our effective income tax rate was reduced by about 150 basis points as a result of some adjustments we recorded when we filed our tax return. Looking to the remainder of this year and into next year, we expect our effective rate will be in the 25% area. In terms of cash taxes, we expect to be in a net refund position in fiscal 2019. You recall that under the new tax law anti-credit carry forwards are now refundable. We expect to recoup approximately $45 million of those credits in fiscal ‘19. Shifting to guidance, based on the strong results in the third quarter, we are raising and tightening our fiscal ‘18 earnings guidance to a range of $3.30, $3.40 per share. The details supporting this range are included in last night’s press release. Looking to fiscal ’19, we’re initiating preliminary earnings guidance in the range of $3.30 to $3.60 per share at the midpoint of $0.10 increase over fiscal ‘18. As John mentioned earlier, Seneca’s production forecast for next year is 210 Bcfe to 230 Bcfe. As a reminder, this range does not include any forecasted price related to curtailment. At the midpoint of this range our spot volume exposure is 25 Bcfe to 30 Bcfe or just over 10% of our forecasted production. We’re quite pleased to have such limited spot pricing exposure as we approach fiscal ‘19 and will likely add firm sales as our operations schedule and well turn-on dates firm up. For pricing, we’re assuming a Henry Hub Gas price of $2.75 per MMBtu and a WTI crude oil price of $65 a barrel. We’re also assuming that spot prices in Appalachia will average $2.40 in the winter heating season and $2 in the summer and shoulder months. While these prices are somewhat lower than what we’ve achieved in the spot market in recent months, they are in line with what we’re seeing in the forward markets. We’re well hedged going into the year. As a result, changes in spot prices will have a relatively small effect. For reference, a $0.10 change in natural gas will impact earnings by about $0.06 per share and a $5 change in oil has about a $0.03 per share impact. From an operating expense standpoint, as I mentioned earlier we’re expecting Seneca’s LOE to be in the range of $0.85 to $0.90 per Mcfe. G&A will grow modestly in absolute dollars, but with our forecasted production increase on a per unit basis it should decline to the $0.25 to $0.35 per Mcfe area. It’s worth noting that our production growth is more back weighted in fiscal ’19, so as you think about both LOE and G&A, we expect per unit cost to be higher in the first half of the year and lower in the back half. Our DD&A should continue to approximate our long term F&D costs. Our guidance assumes a range of $0.70 to $0.75 per Mcfe. The gathering segments throughput and revenues will track Seneca’s east division production. As a result, the nearly 25% increase in Seneca’s net production should translate into a similar percentage increase in gathering revenues to a range of $130 million to $140 million. Given the current year’s investment to sport Seneca’s activity, we expect both operating and depreciation expenses will increase relative to their current levels, but a large portion of the gathering segment’s revenue increase should go right to the bottom line. Shifting to the regulated segments, fiscal 2019 will be a down year for the pipeline and storage business. As I discussed on our previous call, our Empire Pipeline expects that the anchor shipper on the north to south half of the connector line will not renew its contract when it expires this coming December, which will impact revenues by about $14 million in fiscal ‘19. In response, Empire filed a rate case in late June seeking an $11 million rate increase. In the filing, Empire also addressed for its new income tax rule making. Your transportation rates will go into effect on January 1, 2019 subject to refund. The settlement charge will be assigned shortly and we hope to resolve this proceeding in the coming quarters. The issues in the case were pretty straightforward and we have a good history of settling our pipeline rate cases. Our guidance incorporates a modest amount of revenue from this case commencing in our fiscal second quarter, which will update as the regulatory proceeding plays out. We expect a significant increase in compressor maintenance and pipeline integrity expenses in fiscal ‘19. Major overhauls are required on our compression engines when they reach certain operating hour thresholds. Several of our units will reach these thresholds in 2019, including a turban unit whose cost to overhaul is $1.8 million. All told, compressor maintenance expense is expected to increase by about $3.5 million over 2018 levels. On top of that, as you know some of the rules require us to assess the integrity of our major pipelines on a seven year cycle. Fiscal ‘19 happens to be the highest cost year in a seven year cycle, about $1 million higher than 2018. In total, as a result of the overhaul and integrity work, as well as some general cost inflation expected in our other expense categories, we expect fiscal ‘19 pipeline and storage O&M will be up about 5% to 10% over this year. Things should improve for the pipeline and storage business in 2020. O&M expense should be more moderate, the Empire rate case should be resolved and we will place and service our Empire north and Line N to Monaca expansions, which combined will add almost $30 million of annual revenue. At the utility, our guidance reflects normal weather. Given that weather in fiscal ‘18 was largely normal, this assumption really doesn’t have any impact on our year-over-year earnings forecast. However, we do expect to see a modest increase in our underlying margin, driven by the implementation of a system modernization tracker in New York, which should kick in sometime in the first half of the fiscal year, once we surpassed a plant balanced target that was set in our last rate proceeding. Revenues from the tracker should largely offset our forecasted expense increases, which are largely attributable to higher personnel related costs, including labor and associated benefits. Looking to capital, the full breakdown is contained in last night’s release. At the midpoint, our fiscal ’18 forecast is about $30 million lower than our previous guidance given the time you’re spending between fiscal years. For fiscal ‘19 our initial guidance is for spending between $745 million and $845 million. The principal driver of this increase is spending in the E&P business which John hit on earlier. In our pipeline and storage businesses, spending will be up about $50 million, largely driven by spending on the Empire North and Line N to Monaca projects I mentioned earlier. In addition, our modernization program were at another $60 million to $80 million of spending during the year. We expect spending across the other segments will be largely consistent with 2018. Lastly from a financing perspective, we expect our funds from operations should cover substantially all of our capital expenditures in fiscal ‘19. By adding our dividend to the equation, we expect the financing needs in 2019 in the $150 million area. Given our forecasted year end cash position, we expect to finance this with cash-on-hand though its possible changes in working capital could push us into a modest borrowing position at various points in the year. With that, I’ll close and turn it over to the operator to open the lines for questions.