Earnings Labs

Noble Corporation Plc (NE)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 29, 2015

$50.76

-5.30%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Kyle, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Q3 2015 Noble Corp. Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Mr. Chastain, you may begin your conference. Jeffrey L. Chastain - Vice President-Investor Relations & Corporate Communications: Okay. Thank you, Kyle, and welcome, everyone, to Noble Corp.'s third quarter 2015 earnings call. Your interest in Noble is appreciated. In case you missed it, a copy of Noble's earnings report issued last evening along with the supporting statements and schedules can be found on the Noble website, and that's noblecorp.com. I'm going to turn the call over to David Williams in a moment, but first I'd like to remind everyone that we may make statements about our operations, opportunities, plans, operational or financial performance, the Drilling business or other matters that are not historical facts and are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which are posted on our website, discuss the risks and uncertainties in our business and industry and the various factors that could keep outcomes of any forward-looking statements from being realized, including the price of oil and gas, customer demand, operational and other risks. Our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements, and Noble does not assume any obligation to update these statements. Also note, we are referencing non-GAAP financial measures in the call today. You will find the required supplemental disclosure for these measures, including the most directly comparable GAAP measure and an associated reconciliation, on our website. And finally, consistent with our quarterly disclosure practices, once our call…

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Sean Meakim from JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Sean C. Meakim - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hey, good morning. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Sean C. Meakim - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

I was hoping we could talk a little bit about Shell, given the mutual agreement with Transocean that was recently announced. Any discussions in terms of 2017 drilling plans or anything else incrementally you can add to that, what's obviously a very important relationship? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: 2017 drilling plans? Our relationship with Shell is, I would say, not much short of spectacular. We have a very close working relationship with them. We have very high-level meetings multiple times a year. We continue to work to support them in their strategic endeavors, and they, frankly, have been very good supporters of ours. So I don't know that the discussions and the conclusion of their negotiations with Transocean to push rigs to the right, frankly, has anything to do with us. We continue to work vigorously to support them, and we have a great relationship. So we – and we expect that relationship to continue well into the future.

Sean C. Meakim - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Well, that's certainly fair. And then, just thinking about the semis that are going to roll off here in the next couple of quarters, is that – from your commentary, you sound pretty optimistic about your ability to kind of just string together enough work to get through at least 2016. Is that a fair characterization? Is that driven by confidence in how the rigs are performing or kind of what you see on the horizon in terms of tendering, or just some combination? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I think what Simon said – and I'll let him comment in just a second. I think what he said is all the rigs that we have time on are in areas where we have opportunities. And I would say we have, generally speaking, multiple and specific opportunities for those rigs. That doesn't necessarily mean that we'll be successful, but it means that we've got our eye on something that fits. Our operational performance is, I think, fairly well known to our customers. And so, I think that is a good thing for us. And so, I think what he said is there may be some gaps, but we have some specific opportunities that we're chasing. And Simon, do you have anything to add to that? Simon W. Johnson - Vice President-Marketing & Contracts: No, I don't think. I think that covers it.

Sean C. Meakim - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Well, fair enough. Thanks a lot. I appreciate it. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Dave Wilson from Howard Weil. Your line is open.

Dave Wilson - Howard Weil

Analyst

Good morning, good afternoon, gentlemen. Thanks for taking my questions. Simon, one for you, we're all aware that – the dearth of demand and I know there have been previous mentions of project deferral. So I'm wondering, with new operator CapEx budgets for 2016, even though they're down year-over-year, that there might be an expectation of some increased contracting activity early next year. I'm not suggesting a flurry of activity by any stretch or anything approaching normal, but with new budget is it possible to see some activity early in 2016? Simon W. Johnson - Vice President-Marketing & Contracts: Yeah, I think so. I mean, as you point out, Dave, it has been another contractioning year in terms of global E&P spend and that's been disappointing. And it has probably hurt the margin, seeing further decline in work programs in the near-term, but it hasn't completely evaporated them. So as you say, we expect a further year-on-year contraction, which is only the first time we've seen that since the oil price collapsed in the mid- to late 1980s, of course. So most concern for us is, as I pointed out, that we see very little exploration activity. Most people are focusing on work programs with rigs that they already committed to. We are seeing some of the smaller clients look – attracted by the pricing points in the market right now, and I think accelerating some programs that they've had in their inventory for some time. But that really – it is at the margin. I think, overall, the result of this capital budget period is going to be a slightly negative one.

Dave Wilson - Howard Weil

Analyst

Got it, got it. Thank you. And as far as the follow-up, I think most have been impressed by the offshore rig industry's move to quickly reduce costs, and in a convoluted way it might be to its own detriment in terms of lower costs for idling rigs, rather than removing them from the market. But I wanted to see where Noble stood in terms of operating costs, wondering if there was more cost that could come out of the daily OpEx without jeopardizing safety or efficient operations. And if so, what type of costs, and perhaps in broad percentage terms how much lower those costs could go? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, first of all, we won't jeopardize safety and we won't jeopardize maintaining our equipment. So the decisions we're making about cost preservation are largely things that we think that we can do given where we are in just kind of the state of the industry that our – in a better market you might make a different decision. It has to do with accelerating maintenance, whether or not you want to repair a piece of equipment or go ahead and replace it, and those kinds of things. Largely, the savings that we've had to date, I would say the biggest part of it has been in eliminating elements of labor, retention devices and other things like that, and then streamlining our supply chain and doing a better job of our inventory management. So we push on everything, David, and we'll continue to push on everything. There are certain things that are sacred, and, again, it's safety and environmental compliance, and managing our business in a safe and compliant and reliable manner is key. Also, managing uptime is key. I mean, we don't want to cut anything that would affect our ability to keep the rigs on the payroll. And I think that we've demonstrated that we're not doing that, and we'll continue to not do that. So it's not infinite. We certainly continue to push on our suppliers. There's enough pain in this exercise to go around for all of us. But we would expect to continue to see our cost improve. But again, I think there's a limit to how far it can go.

Dave Wilson - Howard Weil

Analyst

Got it, got it. Thank you for that additional info, David. I'll turn it back. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robin Shoemaker from KeyBanc Capital. Your line is open.

Robin E. Shoemaker - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you. So I wanted to ask Simon, I mean, on the ultra-deepwater market globally, it seems like the Gulf of Mexico is the one that offers the most in terms of at least short-term opportunities. But I wonder if you could comment on the prospects for the Dave Beard in Brazil remaining there, and any kind of tendering activity that you may anticipate in West Africa that might in some – might be relevant to Noble. Simon W. Johnson - Vice President-Marketing & Contracts: Okay. Look, as we said, Robin, in our prepared remarks, we're reluctant to sort of give you too much color, given what we're facing out there. I mean, what I would say is the Dave Beard is being bid to customers worldwide. We're not relying on follow-on work in Brazil. And I think what's played out there over recent months would suggest that's a pretty appropriate response from us. So we're not planning on having an extension discussion with Petrobras immediately, but we'll see what eventuates. Looking to West Africa that, of all the ultradeep water markets, is possibly, I believe, the most challenged. The operating costs there are very high. The capital investment required from operators is extremely high. And I think, particularly for the petro-economy countries, such as Angola and Nigeria, that's got a long way to go to play out before we see substantial demand re-emerge for those units that are currently in those markets. They have somewhat of an advantage because there are considerable barriers to entry. So for a rig like the Dave Beard, most of the opportunities we're chasing for that rig are actually not in West Africa.

Robin E. Shoemaker - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Then on the near term issues with the Adkins and the Day, I guess it looks like the short-term things that you're pursuing would lead to a year, perhaps in 2016, where you're working with gaps in between. So with those kind of economics, does it really – does the day rate really matter that much versus the alternative of stacking the rig? In other words, we can see from the Adkins contract kind of where the market is for that type of rig, but with gaps in between is that an acceptable proposition for 2016 if it works, say, eight months out of the year, or something like that, at that rate? Simon W. Johnson - Vice President-Marketing & Contracts: We want to keep the rig working; there's no question about that. In this current market dynamic, going to stacks, that's a pivotal moment in a rig's immediate future. So we're looking to keep the rig working. We spoke earlier to one of the questions about – that we've been improving our cost base. As margins contract on the day rate front, we're also getting some relief on the operating cost front. So really for that utilization, we're not overly focused on the price. We're going to get what price the market delivers. So really, we're focused on keeping those two rigs working, and we're tremendously assisted by the operational record of those rigs. So we're going to continue to fight for the work that's out there.

Robin E. Shoemaker - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Praveen Narra with Raymond James. Your line is open. Praveen Narra - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Hey, good morning, guys. If I could go back to the costs, and can ask it a little bit different way, on the cost saving opportunities you've identified through the downturn, you guys have obviously done a good job. But could you help us understand how much, kind of as a percentage, has been realized to this point and kind of how much is still on the horizon? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I would say that – I'm going to say what I remember from a presentation we made that our current costs are about 14% below what they were third quarter of last year. Is that... Jeffrey L. Chastain - Vice President-Investor Relations & Corporate Communications: 16%. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: 16%. So I think that's a broad statement. As we move into the end of the year with the Prosser going to work and the Hartley going to work, as a percentage of our total days we're going to have more jackup days. That's going to bring our overall average cost down. But I would say it's a cost savings that we reported as 16% over third quarter last year. And again, we're still seeing benefits of those efforts come through, and we'll continue to push on it. James, do you have anything to add to that? James A. MacLennan - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Nothing to add to that. Thank you. Praveen Narra - Raymond James & Associates, Inc.: Okay. And then, I guess in terms of your discussions with your customers and their actions whenever they…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Waqar Syed from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Waqar Mustafa Syed - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thanks. David, you have three rigs, Bully I, Bully II, and Globetrotter I, that were built back in 2011. So they may be due for their 5-year service in 2016. And I see for Bully I you've said in the fleet status that you could do the 5-year service without any downtime. Could you provide any guidance for the other two rigs for 2016 5-year service? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Waqar, I can't say much more than other than what we've put in the fleet status so far. We're working on our plans for next year and that largely depends on the well scope, the timing and other things. I will say that all of those rigs have retractable thrusters. And so, being able to do some of the marine survey work that's required as far as the special survey package, we can fit into the normal course of work without having to, say, dry-dock the rig or stop the rig or other things. So as you said, this is the first special survey for these rigs. There's a learning curve that goes with that. There are some other bits of work that go with our 5-year survey on those things that we'll try to do as much of that offline as we can and work with our customer to make sure that we don't impact their operation. But we'll guide you – give you better guidance on that as we move through the budget and develop our plan a little bit more succinctly. Waqar Mustafa Syed - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Could you provide any color on maybe…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of J.B. Lowe, from Cowen & Co. Your line is open. J.B. Lowe - Cowen & Co. LLC: Hey, good morning, guys. I just had a follow-up to one of Dave's questions earlier regarding – the fact that you've been able to reduce costs so much, particularly on stacked and idle rigs, do you think that that is going to make it so some of these rigs stick around longer than they previously would have, which could kind of – it won't reduce the supply as much as we would have thought in a downturn such as this? And kind of a follow-up to that, what would it take for you to move an idle rig into a stacked position or – I think you only have one rig stacked right now, but what would it take for you to actually go ahead and make the decision to retire a rig? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: There are different levels of stack. We have a number of rigs that are, what I call, stacked. You can understand when it's somebody else's payroll, as far as I'm concerned it's stacked. But we have one rig that's cold stacked, and that's Noble Homer Ferrington. We have a number of other rigs that are idle between contracts. The differentiator between what you – the decision that you make depends on what your forward opportunities are for that rig and how much – what your burn rate is. We've got the burn rate down on the Max Smith to a very, very low level. Some places in the world you actually can't pull everybody off. Some places, you're better to pull it up to the docks. So almost every geography has its…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of James West from Evercore. Your line is open.

Samantha Kay Hoh - Evercore ISI

Analyst

Hey, guys. This is Samantha Hoh filling in for James. We've seen some of the smaller players having more difficult time managing through this cycle. And I was just wondering, David, if you could comment on how you think consolidation will play out within the industry. Do you think the small players will consolidate to form a new competitor, or is it a case of the strong getting stronger, such as yourself? And also, can you clarify for us what sort of liabilities, if any, you may face from a potential Paragon bankruptcy filing. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure, Samantha. I'll take the – well, I'll take the Paragon piece, first, because I remember that piece. We put Paragon out in a market with good liquidity and good backlog, and we certainly put them in a position where we believe they could succeed and we expect them to succeed. So, beyond that, we have a good working relationship. We certainly have some shared services agreements that continue to work. And we're monitoring their progress, but I think that we put them out with good liquidity in a position where they could thrive, and we expect them to thrive. On the other question, consolidation, we're watching the market. Whether or not the smaller pool up or whether they get swallowed by larger players, I think smaller – not to broad-brush smaller contractors, but smaller players who, as you put it, I think are having more difficulty than we – two companies that are both in trouble just makes one bigger company that's in trouble. So, I don't know that it's so much a function of size, but strength. I will say that right now, we're watching, but we're really not watching hard. We're focused right now on running our company as efficiently as we can. We believe that we've made over the last number of years some very good decisions on when we started our newbuild program, how we have shaped our fleet, how we've contracted our services, and how we're executing the processes and the procedures that give our operational capability the flare that it's got and the performance that it's got. So, we're focusing on those core things. If there are some opportunities because some people have made different decisions or are in a weaker position, I believe Noble is going to be one of those companies that has an opportunity to take advantage of that if there's an advantage to be had. But right now we're focused on running our company.

Samantha Kay Hoh - Evercore ISI

Analyst

Thanks a lot. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gregory Lewis from Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Gregory Lewis - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Yes, thank you for taking my question. David, I guess Noble is in an interesting position with the view of the market, just given the fact that you have some floaters with some rolling off contract in the short-term, medium term and long-term. As you're having conversations with customers, I think some of us are surprised we haven't seen more blending and extending of contracts in 2015. I guess if you could just provide some color, are those conversations still ongoing? And is that something where they're looking at more, you know – rigs that are rolling off? Are the conversations around rigs rolling off in 2016 or 2017, or not really having any conversations? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I don't want to get too granular about the conversations we're having with our specific customers. But I would comment that, just like contractors, all operating companies have different philosophies and they have different circumstances. Many operators don't want to commit firm term for work that they don't have. If they've already got work sanctioned and their partners have already agreed, in some cases they're willing to stay the course and run the gamut with what they've got; and they don't want to get out any further than what they can see. Other operators have a much longer term view, and they know that they're going to have continuing work and near-term relief has value to them. So I would say that we've certainly entertained some of those conversations. We're certainly willing to have those conversations. We'll be a 95-year-old company next year. You don't get to be…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Judson Bailey from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Judson E. Bailey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Thanks, good morning. David, I wanted to get your thoughts on some of these drillships and newbuild semis. We've had three, now, that have been canceled. They'll be sitting at the yard and presumably up for sale. You're one of the few companies with a balance sheet and cash flow profile that can, I would assume, have that opportunity to maybe bid on those types of assets. I'd just be curious to get your thoughts on how you would think about addressing a newbuild with no contract, and how you think about the economics and if you have interest in some of the assets that have become available, and presumably others that will come available over the next year or so? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I appreciate the question. I appreciate you pointing out that we're one of the ones. But I think not only are we one of the ones that have the wherewithal to look at those things, we're one of the ones that haven't added to that problem. We undertook a plan to build rigs to our board in 2010. We've built everything we wanted to build. We've contracted everything we wanted to build, and we're going to take delivery of everything we wanted to build. It puzzles me the way people applaud contractors who are, as we call it, pushing it to the right when that doesn't really solve the problem and it adds to the cost. But be that as it may, we certainly have an eye on what's out there. There's some good assets out there that we think have good long-term utility. I would say, at this point, most of the people who are holding those assets want to be rescued, and we're not in the rescue business. So to the extent that prices come to a point where it looks interesting to us, we might take a look at it. I would say we're a long way from there at this point. And I would reiterate what I said earlier, and that is that we're focused on running our company. And when the opportunities come up, we will look at those opportunities. But right now, we're focused on basics and extracting as much value out of this as we can for our shareholders and for our customers. And when those opportunities are appropriately priced, we'll take a look at them; but that's not here, yet.

Judson E. Bailey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

All right. Thanks for that. And then, my follow-up is for James. You mentioned in your prepared comments a lot of your cost initiatives, and I think you mentioned some shorebased items in there as well. I'd just be curious, have you exhausted all of the kind of the shorebased cost cuts that you can? Do you see more room to maybe cut shorebase further or consolidate in different regions, or is there more to go there or do you feel like you've pretty much done everything you can at this point? James A. MacLennan - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Judson, the answer is almost all of the above. We continue to look in every area of the company in every way that we spend money. There are initiatives that are ongoing. There are groups of people who are constantly looking at further ways to reduce costs. It's a case of never say never when it comes to finding ways to reduce costs.

Judson E. Bailey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

All right. Great. Thanks. Jeffrey L. Chastain - Vice President-Investor Relations & Corporate Communications: Kyle, since we're past the top of the hour, let's make that our last question this morning. I'm going to echo David's comments and apologize for our call provider's technical challenges that delayed many of you connecting this morning. I want to remind you that in our press release there is a replay number provided so that you can catch up with some of the comments that may have been missed early on this morning. For those of you left in the queue, John Breed and I will be contacting you over the course of the day to address your questions. Again, thank you for your participation on today's call and your continued interest in Noble. Good day, everyone.