Earnings Labs

Noble Corporation Plc (NE)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 30, 2015

$50.76

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Erica and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Noble Corp Second Quarter 2015 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will a question-and-answer period. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, this conference is being recorded today, July 30, 2015. Thank you. I would now like to introduce Mr. Jeff Chastain, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Chastain, you may begin your conference. Jeffrey L. Chastain - Vice President-Investor Relations & Corporate Communications: Okay. Thank you, Erica, and welcome, everyone, to Noble Corporation's second quarter 2015 earnings call. We appreciate your interest in the company. A copy of Noble's earnings report issued last evening, along with all the supporting statements and schedules, can be found on our website, and that's noblecorp.com. Before I turn the call over to David Williams, I would like to remind everyone that we may make statements about our operations, opportunities, plans, operational or financial performance, the Drilling business or other matters that are not historical facts and are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which are posted on our website, discuss the risks and uncertainties in our business and industry and the various factors that could keep outcomes of any forward-looking statements from being realized, including the price of oil and gas, customer demand, operational and other risks. Our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements and Noble does not assume any obligation to update these statements. Also, we will, as part of our quarterly disclosure practice, post to our website following the conclusion of our call a summary of the financial…

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

Thank you, James, and good morning to everyone. I'll begin with some observations on the offshore rig market. In doing so, I hope to provide you with a sense of where we are today regarding industry challenges compared to the update we provided on the April call. Then, I will cover some topics specific to Noble, including our backlog and the prospects for continued work on the limited number of floating and jackup rigs in our fleet which have near-term availability. I said last quarter that discussions with our customers about future work programs were occurring at an increasing pace. This pattern has continued into the middle of the year. Although, we remain a considerable distance from normalization, we have a high degree of confidence in the incremental drilling programs, as we move into the second half of 2015 and beyond. The positive impact of this development has been muted by the growth in rig availability. The number of rigs rolling off assignments with no ongoing work in place or exiting shipyards with no foundation contract is exceeding the appearance of new programs for now. The good news is that the industry participants with un-contracted units are increasingly focused on making difficult decisions about cold stacking sooner rather than later, which may have a positive impact on market utilization. While the return of exploration drilling, which will be most impactful on industry utilization, is still off our clients' agendas for now, field construction costs continue to head in the right direction. This rationalization exercise, which affects technology decisions and regulatory approvals, as well as overall economics, takes time to play out, but we are seeing the same clear signs of progress commented on by some of our ISES (18:27) in recent weeks. There exists a growing number of projects where…

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Sean Meakim from JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Sean C. Meakim - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hey, good morning. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Sean C. Meakim - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Starting off on the CapEx, do we think looking forward here – is there more flexibility available to revise some of the timing on the CapEx? Do we think in this year $525 million is kind of the bottom? Any more flexibility on the outer years, or do we think we've kind of hit the low point? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, we haven't guided 2016, yet. I mean, I would expect – I think capital is a little more longer lead time than just most of your regular expense items. So I think the guidance we've given you today is appropriate for what we think we're going to do this year. Keep in mind, next year we have a newbuild delivery, which James described. I think we have $460 million due on it.

Sean C. Meakim - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Sure. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: This year includes some – this year's capital program includes some carryovers from previous years for some subsea equipment that we would hope not to have that next year. So I would hope that year-on-year normal capital would be lower next year as compared with the $525 million for this year – would be lower next year; although, we have – we'll guide you more clearly on that later, plus the newbuild.

Sean C. Meakim - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ian Macpherson from Simmons. Your line is open. Ian Macpherson - Simmons & Company International: (29:37) team on the successes on that front. I had a question on backlog. As we got through the middle part of the year, I think it was a little bit surprising that the blend and extend phenomenon had not gained more traction, yet. And I can't help but think that the past few months of – the 20% pullback in crude hasn't made your customers, especially the majors who have not executed blend and extending arrangements up until that point – I would think they're more hawkish now than they were in Q2. So what is your outlook for how your backlog is positioned vis-à-vis that phenomenon going forward? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I think, as I would say, demonstrated by our position in the Homer Ferrington, we think our contracts – we – they have sanctity. We don't believe they're fungible, because oil price changes. So, I mean, we would expect our customers to honor the contacts. Now, the blend and extend everybody expects to come, I think, is actually a good thing if you have a high enough rate to be able to get some more term to carry you longer into the cycle. If there's an opportunity for us to meet with our customers and if they want to lower the rate in exchange for term, we're happy to have that conversation. We think that's a meaningful way, but to-date our operational performance has been very good. Our customers are happy with us. We have certainly been through an exercise with Aramco, like everybody else has, and we're certainly willing to have conversations with customers; but to-date that hasn't been something that has – we've had to deal with. Ian Macpherson - Simmons & Company International: Okay. Thanks. A follow-up question, if I may. Simon, you walked through plausible opportunities for follow-on work for the Adkins, for the Amos Runner and for the Clyde Boudreaux. I'm a little surprised that we haven't seen the Max Smith reclassified as heading towards cold stack, yet. Is that a lagging sort of classification or is that rig still really fully marketed and warm stacked and – what's the strategy for that one?

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

Yeah. I mean, the rig is warm stacked and ready to go to work. We have active bids for the rig as of today and, until we take the view that we can't compete or the stack cost is too much, we're going to continue to market the rig for the opportunities that are out there. I'm certain that the Asia-Pacific floater market is more challenging today than it was, say, a year ago, but that rig is – it's conventionally moored. It's not burning a great deal of cash. It doesn't require any significant work program to go back under contract. So, we're just going to continually revisit the status of the rig going forward, but it isn't a sweaty hands decision for us like an idle DP drillship would be, where there's a big daily cash burn and serious upfront capital commitment required. So, it's a watch and wait (32:41), but at some point we may change our view and take a different approach for the rig; but that's not where we are today. Ian Macpherson - Simmons & Company International: Okay. Got that. Thanks. I'll pass it over.

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

Thanks Ian.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Waqar Syed from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Waqar M. Syed - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Thanks for taking my question. My question relates to tenders in India. There seems to be a number of tenders for semis and drillships. Are the tenders still there or they've been – is ONGC looking to revise them, number one? And number two, do you know if these are for existing rigs or there's opportunity to bring rigs from outside into that market?

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

Yeah. There's a number of active tenders in India, today, certainly one of which is being closely watched is with ONGC. The tender closing date has recently been deferred somewhat, so it's a little bit early to say at the moment what may come out of that. It's certainly closely watched by all market participants. I think it's going to attract a lot of competition from all around the world, not just in the local region there. So I think any rigs that are rolling in India today that might be re-tendered are certainly going to be facing strong competition from elsewhere. I'm not sure if there's much more to say there other than it's a much anticipated and highly watched tender. Waqar M. Syed - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Have they specified the new date for the tender, or not yet?

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

Look, I don't have that information to hand right now. All I know is that there has been a deferral in closing date, that's all. Waqar M. Syed - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of J.B. Lowe from Cowen & Company. Your line is open. J.B. Lowe - Cowen & Co. LLC: Morning, guys. I just had a – kind of a follow-up on one of Ian's questions about the blend and extend. Is there a maximum term extension if you were to negotiate one of those deals that you would look to do, like – would it be you only wanted to extend, let's say, for one year, get one additional year of backlog, or would you be willing to go longer than that? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, we'll go – I mean, yeah, we – we're a drilling contractor. We can price anything you got. Obviously, the longer it goes, our price expectation would change, so – but I mean, if an operator wanted to come in and talk about a long-term extension, we can do that. But again, it's a – there's – we've got a contract in place, arguably, under this scenario, so how much you dilute yourself in the near term is a reflection of the current market. We expect the market to get better, so we would expect the rate to reflect that acceleration of the market. So – and we can talk about whatever the operator wants. So I would say, no, there's not a maximum term we'd consider. There may be a maximum term the operator might consider, but not us. J.B. Lowe - Cowen & Co. LLC: Okay. Fair enough. And just kind of a question on potential M&A in this space, are there any – are asset prices getting to a point where Noble would consider going out and putting a bid on maybe a distressed asset? And if so,…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Anderson from Barclays. Your line is open.

J. David Anderson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Thanks. I was just – kind of a follow-up question, that blend and extend. If we think about – one of your competitors had a rig cancellation earlier this quarter. I was just kind of curious, is that a phenomena we should be worried about going forward? Was that a unique issue or do you think you could potentially see more of that going forward? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I'm not sure exactly which one you're referring to. If the operator wants to terminate the contract and pay out the rate under the terms of the contract, that's – I guess that's a right most of them would have. We've got several 10-year contracts. I think I'd – I'm not sure we would be disappointed in that. But our contracts don't have features where the operator could come and just cut your contract and walk away. So again, we believe that our contracts are strong. We, frankly, have a history of enforcing our contracts; and actually have a really good track record enforcing our contracts. We have no reason to believe that there is a weakness in our contract structure at all.

J. David Anderson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And if we kind of just look at the kind of the broader market, you had talked earlier in the call about the attrition rates, about the number of rigs that are being cold stacked. In order to balance this market, from your viewpoint, is this going fast enough? Do you think the pace of this attrition needs to pick up in the second half of the year? I'm just kind of curious how you're thinking about that, say, over the next 12 months to 24 months in terms of that rate of attrition.

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

Well, I mean, I think we've seen, as I said in the prepared comments, some 40-odd rigs that have been taken out of the market to-date. I mean, going forward I think that there's certainly space for at least as many, again, to be removed from active supply on a permanent basis, but I think the key thing to understand is that changing the supply equation is not going to change the overall market balance overnight. Really, there's a need for the industry to retool. You're seeing some of that happen now. So I see it as more of a process of increasing the health level of the industry for the recovery when it comes. It's demand that's going to change things for the rig market today, and that's what we're most closely watching. The supply contribution is important, but it's demand that's overwhelmingly more important. James A. MacLennan - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: David, I would add that it is reasonable to expect that that rate might increase towards the end of the year because the financial year ends and the accounting rules.

J. David Anderson - Barclays Capital, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. We'll be watching that. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jud Bailey from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Judson E. Bailey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. Simon, I wanted to follow up. You mentioned the Boudreaux, the Beard, and the Day. All the operators on those rigs have signaled that they'll probably be cutting spending further. And I wanted to know – see if you have – can you say – do you have expectation that the operators that currently operate those rigs will be releasing them? Are you looking for additional – further opportunities or do you think there's a chance that the current operators could extend those rigs, or are you pretty much marketing the rigs elsewhere at this point?

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

Look, we're not anticipating anything in the current market. We've been marketing all of those rigs since about a year out from the end of their current contracts for opportunities all around the world. So we're not relying on the existing operator to extend the charter. We're looking at opportunities in the region and beyond for each of those rigs.

Judson E. Bailey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then, it's early looking into 2016, but I'm wondering if any of your customers, as they go through the budget process, are starting to have any dialogue with you about their 2016 plans. And if so, I'm just curious, has the tone or the conversation changed in the last four weeks to five weeks at all with the drop in oil, or has – is it still kind of the same as it was four weeks to six weeks ago?

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

Yeah, it's difficult to say. We're still very early into the budget season at the moment. Certainly, the recent pullback in oil price has not been helpful. The operator confidence level at the moment I would describe as fragile, so obviously a deterioration in the leading-edge of the crude oil price is not helpful at this point. But more importantly, what I would say is that the level of overall business activity that we're experiencing today is around about three times higher in terms of total inquiries, conversations that are in progress, compared to around about the same time last year. So what we're waiting to see is what this budget season brings in terms of CapEx programs and how many of those discussions, market surveys, tenders, et cetera, translate into real work. And the story of that will be told over the next three months to six months.

Judson E. Bailey - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

All right. Great. Thanks. I'll turn it back.

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Marietta from Stephens. Your line is open.

Matthew Marietta - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

We've been really focused on the macro and the contracting side, but in the prepared remarks you hit on this some. Can you elaborate on what you've done to lower your operating costs to get us to this point, what future cost savings there could be and, really, how sustainable these wins are on the cost side? James A. MacLennan - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah, Matt, we do believe that the initiatives that we've already put in place, and continue to put in place, are sustainable. We always look at costs; we always have. As David mentioned earlier on, we've seen an excellent margin in the first half of the year at 59%, which is reflective of having improved our spending habits. We do believe, as I say, that those programs that have been put in place, and programs that have been taken away, conversely, are sustainable for the time being and will be continued.

Matthew Marietta - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Great. Thanks. That's all of me. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Brown from Global Hunter Securities. Your line is open.

Mark Brown - Global Hunter Securities, LLC

Analyst

Hi, gentlemen. Wanted to ask about the Gulf of Mexico floater market. You expressed some level of confidence that you'd be able to keep the Danny Adkins and the Amos Runner and Jim Day working. Was curious what – if you have any color in terms of your conversations and sort of the number of companies that are engaging in bidding for new opportunities or extensions. And if you could, I would be curious to know what your forecast would be for the working Gulf of Mexico rig count on the floater side by the end of 2016?

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

Yeah, there's a lot of questions there, Mark, but I'll address them as best as I can. I mean, the Gulf of Mexico floater market's probably one of the most elastic markets that we participate in around the globe. The interesting thing about it, in terms of potential for market recovery, is there's a lot of price-focused operators. A lot of those operators are willing to make a decision based on attractive day rates. We're starting to see some interest in some of our units from that class of operator. In terms of individual opportunities, I'm a little reluctant to discuss them with you as you've requested, just simply because there are so many people with so many rigs chasing a relatively discrete number of jobs right now. So I'm not sure if I can give you the color you're seeking there. But we continue to believe that it's one of the better deepwater markets around the globe. We believe it'll be one of the ones that recovers faster than the others. I think the active rig count is going to suffer somewhat. The total rig number is going to be somewhat distorted by stacking decisions. People will be stacking rigs, if not in the Gulf of Mexico, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, then they'll be doing it in some of the nearby geography in Central America. So I think that'll sort of distort the picture somewhat, and may act as somewhat of a brake to recovery in the region, generally, but we'll just have to see how that plays out.

Mark Brown - Global Hunter Securities, LLC

Analyst

That's helpful. And then, just as a follow-up, I know you are not disclosing the rate on the Danny Adkins, but do you have any commentary in terms of why you chose not to do that? And should we read anything into that, whether we should expect in the future to see many of the new contracts not with a rate disclosed?

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

Look, I don't know about what other people might do. I mean, we've agreed with the client not to disclose the rate at this time for competitive reasons. We see no advantage in revisiting that conversation right now. I'm not really willing to be drawn any further than that.

Mark Brown - Global Hunter Securities, LLC

Analyst

All right. Well, thank you very much.

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Byron Pope from Tudor, Pickering, Holt. Your line is open. Byron K. Pope - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.: Good morning. I had a quick question on rig uptimes. It seemed as though, David, you made a comment in your prepared remarks about careful analysis as large and small events that produce better outcomes, and I remember a few years ago it seemed as though subsea stacks were maybe a root cause of some of the downtime; and you guys have invested a lot of time and attention there – in that area over the last few years. So I was just wondering if you could speak to some of the tangible things you guys have done to improve that uptime, and has it come in large part from better uptime as it relates to the subsea BOPs? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. I appreciate the question. Yeah, it has come largely in association with subsea BOPs or subsea BOP control systems, all the subsea kit. And, Byron, what we mean by that is our offshore group, our engineering group, and our maintenance group have spent a lot of time over the last, really, many years looking at failure of components. I mean, there are innumerable components that go into a subsea control system and the – both subsurface and on the surface, of how you control the – actuate different elements of the BOP. And any one can cause you to have a failure that actually may require you to pull the BOP stack or do further testing or other things. So, over the period of time that we've had these new BOPs – and we have, I think, 14 of the same…

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

And just as a little add, too, I think it's worth mentioning that we have a best-in-class training program and that has also been instrumental in elevating the competence and the technical ability of our subsea guys. It's a hardware and a people issue, both, and we've been working both ends of the problem. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Absolutely. Thanks, Simon. Byron K. Pope - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, Inc.: Thanks, David, Simon. I appreciate it.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Smith from Heikkinen Energy. Your line is open.

David C. Smith - Heikkinen Energy Advisors

Analyst

Hi. Thank you, and good morning. I appreciate the comments. I think there was a sweaty hand comment regarding idle DP rigs, and I was hoping to follow that a little bit further. Just thinking about prior downturns, there was always a trend where higher spec rigs could out-compete and displace the lower spec rigs. But year-to-date, there's been more backlog destruction from the high spec DP rigs and most of the new contract term awarded year-to-date has gone to moored floaters. I just wanted to ask your view of whether we could be facing a prolonged oversupply of high spec DP rigs that maybe can't displace the older rigs in harsher environments or below certain water depths.

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

Yeah. I think some of the rankings that people have used to characterize different sectors of the floating market, in particular, have changed. There certainly is a greater inventory of rigs that are able to work in a much broader range of water depths and different types of wells, et cetera. I think as far as the moored rigs go, there's always going to be up to around about 1,000 feet – 1,500 feet of water that represents the lower effective operating limit of a modern dynamically positioned rig. So some of the older moored rigs, they still have an area that they can compete in. I think generally speaking, though, the newer rigs will continue to compete downwards, and most particularly the rigs that have been constructed in the last five years to six years. They do have certain operational advantages over the fifth generation dynamically positioned rigs. You'll see the fifth generation rigs, I think, will come under some additional pressure with another strata of technology above them. We're seeing the first signs of that. I think some rigs that were built in the previous cycle, one of which, at least, has been scrapped here recently – it's a dynamic process that's still evolving, but I think the supply inventory is going to be with us for some time for sure.

David C. Smith - Heikkinen Energy Advisors

Analyst

And completely appreciate your comments on the fifth gen rigs, but just regarding the high spec DP rigs, as long as the new supply being added over the next couple of years is heavily weighted towards those DP-only rigs, I'm just wondering, how do we balance that market? And whether it's – do we need to stack the – does the market – does the industry need to stack the DP-only semis? Do we need to add mooring systems to the semis? Just hoping to get your thoughts on how that plays out.

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

Well, I think the semis are easier to stack than the ships, generally, but we're in the early stages of grappling with that as an industry. There are lots of people who have been advancing certain approaches to that. We certainly have been – are trying to understand what we would do if forced to make such a decision. But what I would say is that we – mainly, we're not one of the players in the market who's faced with dealing with that today. So I think that going forward that the people have dramatically underestimated the cost of stacking these DP rigs and, more particularly, the cost of reactivating them. I think the key will be utilization, keeping the working rigs working, and it'll be increasingly challenging for newbuilds coming out of the yard that don't have foundation contracts to compete simply because of the risk associated with a new rig. So I think the rigs that will be stacked is not necessarily going to be a function purely of specification. It's also going to be a function of who owns them and how well that individual unit is placed to compete for the opportunities at a point in time.

David C. Smith - Heikkinen Energy Advisors

Analyst

Very much appreciated. Thank you.

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gregory Lewis from Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Gregory Lewis - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Thank you and good morning. Simon, I know you've touched on the Marks (53:57) a little bit and I don't know how much you can say regarding this, but it seemed like three months ago, maybe four months ago, the Saudi's were in the market for potentially three higher spec jackups. I mean, is that something that is still being – in the process of happening or has that been something where, just given the market, maybe that's not a 2015 event, anymore; it's potentially a 2016 or 2017 event?

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

As far as Saudi Arabia goes, I mean, their tenders are widely circulated. They don't generally engage in direct discussions. So I mean, when that work comes to market, I think everyone will be aware of it. And in terms of their activity level, generally, what I'd say is that I think they were operating one rig in 2000 and today they are up around close to the 50 mark. So they've seen a dramatic increase in their rig count. I think Aramco is in the early stages of understanding what their long-term rig demand pattern looks like. Could they need incremental rigs? Yes, certainly, I think they could, but the pace at which they come to market and the number of rigs that they'd add to their existing inventory remains to be seen. Gregory Lewis - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Okay, great. And then, just, I guess, shifting gears – I mean, I guess we'll talk a little bit about the dividend. As you set the dividend, I mean, clearly the board thought about this long and hard – with – the stock is kind of yielding 11% right now. Do we think this is – I mean, is this a through cycle dividend? I mean, when you run the cash flows, the backlog, it looks like it has the potential to be. Are we comfortable with it being a through cycle dividend? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Greg, I guess the only way I could answer that is know when the cycle ends, which I don't know. So I think what we can do is look at what we know about now and what we can do at any given time. Given our performance this year to-date against what our plans…

Simon Johnson - Senior Vice President-Marketing and Contracts

Management

Thanks, Greg. Jeffrey L. Chastain - Vice President-Investor Relations & Corporate Communications: Erica, we're going to go ahead and conclude the call with that question. For those of you left in the queue, John Breed and I will be contacting you over the course of the day to address your questions. Thank you for your participation on today's call and your interest in Noble. Make a note, please, that our third quarter 2015 results are scheduled for reporting on the 28th of October, with a call to follow on the morning of the 29th. We'll confirm those dates as we get closer. Erica, thank you for coordinating the call, and good day, everyone.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.