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Noble Corporation Plc (NE)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 4, 2016

$50.76

-5.30%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Tiffany, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Noble Corporation Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Jeff Chastain, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference. Jeffrey L. Chastain - Vice President-Investor Relations & Corporate Communications: Okay. Thank you, Tiffany, and welcome, everyone, to Noble Corporation's fourth quarter and full year 2015 earnings call. Your interest in Noble is appreciated. In case you missed it, a copy of Noble's earnings report issued last evening along with the supporting statements and schedules can be found on the company's website, and that's noblecorp.com. I'm going to turn the call over to David Williams in a moment, but first I'd like to remind everyone that we may make statements about our operations, opportunities, plans, operational or financial performance, the drilling business or other matters that are not historical facts and our forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which are posted on our website, discuss the risks and uncertainties in our business and industry and the various factors that could keep outcomes of any forward-looking statements from being realized, including the price of oil and gas, customer demand, operational and other risks. Our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements, and Noble does not assume any obligation to update these statements. Also note we are referencing non-GAAP financial measures in today's call. You will find the required supplemental disclosure for these measures, including the most directly comparable GAAP measure and an associated reconciliation…

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Dave Wilson with Howard Weil. Your line is open.

David Thomas Wilson - Scotia Howard Weil

Analyst

Good morning, gentlemen. Thanks for taking my questions. I noted that you commented on the Croft and Madden and talks are ongoing. But could you put some bookends around the possible outcomes, for example, best case both rigs were moved to some type of idle day rate for a while then resumed or worst case, cancellation or something along those lines. Can you kind of frame kind of the worst and best case scenarios? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Dave, I think I said what I can say except that we have firm contracts. And so – I mean, I'm not quite sure how you had come to – what you believe is best and worst. But I would say that the fallback solution is the rigs were made under contract, under their current contracts. I mean, that's the fallback.

David Thomas Wilson - Scotia Howard Weil

Analyst

Okay. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: That's not a bad outcome.

David Thomas Wilson - Scotia Howard Weil

Analyst

Right. Right. Okay. And then, also David, you mentioned the fourth quarter downtime was elevated in relation to the three prior quarters. And it looks like, from some of the fleet updates, that it was due to some OEM recommended component replacements. Can I get a little more detail on that and will that component replacement be kind of an ongoing matter, say, every three years, these components got to be replaced or something like that, or are there other rigs in the fleet that still need to get this replacement done? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Dave, I appreciate the question. We had a little bit of heavier downtime on a number of rigs, but on the specific component failure, it was a manufacturing process failure on some components on some of the older rigs, actually the two EVAs, the stacked pools for the Romano and the Runner. And, no, it's not an ongoing issue and it's not a broader issue. It was a failure and a potential failure on a component that led us to, basically, immediately secure the well and pull the stacks and change these components out in order to – out of an abundance of caution. So, no, it's not recurring, it's over. It was unfortunate to have them both hit during the quarter with some other things. But, that's life in this business and it's over and it's behind us.

David Thomas Wilson - Scotia Howard Weil

Analyst

Great. Appreciate the comments there. And thanks for the clarification. I'll turn the call back over. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: You bet. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ian Macpherson with Simmons. Your line is open. Ian Macpherson - Simmons & Company International: Right. Thanks. Good morning. David, I'm sorry to just pepper away with the Madden and Croft questions, but, here it goes. One thing we do know is the rigs aren't going to be drilling right. So, presumably one alternative is that you and your customer could share in the cost savings of taking them down to stack, but what are your limitations or your preferences for keeping those rigs in some state of readiness along the spectrum of fully ready versus completely cold stacked given how high-tech and complicated and brand new they are. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, Rob – I mean, Ian. I'm sorry. I can't get too granular in this. I mean, I would just say that the construct to these contracts is very tight. And so, we have a revenue stream and we have a contract that's firm. We also have a customer who is wanting some help. And of course, we need our customers to do well. And so, we're certainly willing to accommodate that customer to the extent that we can, but we don't intend to diminish our overall position unless there's something in it for us. So, could we – are there scenarios where we may lay the rigs up, I mean, you said they'll be stacked. I didn't say that. So, we're working with our customers to see what his capability is, what his requirements are, what his opportunities might be for further extension. All of that is on the table for discussion. But I would say that, again, the fallback for us is we have firm contracts and they're enforceable. Our customer…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robin Shoemaker with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Robin E. Shoemaker - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Thank you. So, David, I think James mentioned the decline in the Adkins and Day rate will be $90,000 to $100,000 a day. So, I guess that's the first as operating rate. So, does that mean you're warm stacking cost is in the 50-ish-type number? And what does – how would you define warm stacking and can that number – where it starts, can it be gradually lowered if, for example, those rigs didn't find work this year? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Robin, I love you, guys. If we'd wanted to tell you what the number was, we would have told you what the number was. The different rigs – the reason we cast it the way we did is different rigs have different operating costs. And I would say that the Day and the Adkins, well, they have similar capabilities of some of the – I mean very similar capabilities with some of the other later delivered rigs. We actually operate those rigs a little cheaper, a little more efficiently than we do some of the HHI ships or what some of our competitors like some of the other similar class of rigs. So, we count it this way. I don't know what your model has for operating cost on those rigs. But the handrail, our handrail cost for those rigs, what we actually use to run those rigs in a daily operating mode whether it's these rigs and we use the Jim Day as an example, whether it's these rigs or if we are to lay up one of a more higher spec rig, warm stack, we think that daily savings at the handrail would be somewhere in the $90,000 to $100,000 range. So, for instance, if you presume the operating cost…

Robin E. Shoemaker - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst · KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Okay. Thank you. And in – going back to the Saudi question, is your contract negotiation running concurrently with other contractors? Is this part of a – is this an ongoing like resetting of rates across a lot of rigs, and maybe other service companies that the Saudis are engaged here at the start of the year? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I don't think they've singled us out. I think that this is something that's going on with all contractors, just like they did last year. Simon, do you want to comment on the broader...? Simon W. Johnson - Vice President-Marketing & Contracts: Yeah look, we have no insight in terms of what they might be speaking about with the other contractors. But, I mean, every operator in every basin around the world right now is engaged in seeking to improve terms. So, I can't say any more than that. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I think this is the same process they went through last year. I don't see any targeted efforts or anything. I think it's the same process they went through last year.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Gregory Lewis with Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Gregory Lewis - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Yes. Thank you and good morning, and I guess, good afternoon. And I guess my question is either going to be, James and David, I don't know, I'll just figure out which one of you would like to answer. But really, David, you've done a great job of putting the company in a good financial position. You have – James mentioned the revolver which is undrawn, you have $500 million of cash, and it seems like the focus wants to be on capital efficiency. And so, when we look at – if I were to look at Noble's medium-term bonds, whether they're the 2017s or 2018s, those yields are in the teens. So, at a certain point, does it make sense, given the backlog, given the balance sheet, to potentially buy back some of those bonds and really just capture that – you're reducing your interest expense, strengthening your balance sheet? It seems like a real win-win. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Greg, I would say that that's a manifestation that's fairly new in the marketplace, and it's certainly something that we're aware of and have been watching. I'm not going to say yes or no. But certainly your logic is not lost on us. And so, I would say that the discount on these bonds is something that's been manifesting itself over the last few weeks, I don't know, five or six weeks or however long it has been, where it has really made some sense, and it's something that we're monitoring. And certainly, your logic is not lost on us. Gregory Lewis - Credit Suisse Securities (USA)…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Campbell with Tuohy Brothers. Your line is open.

Jeff Leon Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Your line is open.

Good morning, or afternoon. I might get a little lost on the locations. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: As do we.

Jeff Leon Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Your line is open.

The first question I wanted to ask was with regard to the Jim Day and the Danny Adkins. So, I'm just wondering if the decision to warm-stack those rigs reflects any optimism regarding potential near-term contracting? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I would say yes. Our view of those rigs is that they are very high-spec'd, some of the highest spec'd semis operating the world, the operating capabilities of those rigs is from a semi-submersible perspective, I would say, of second to that in the mid markets, U.S. Deepwater, Gulf of Mexico, West Africa and South America. So, we do have, I believe, some opportunities for those rigs that we think are suitable. We think that we're waiting on the dust to clear up whenever there is turmoil in the oil price as our customers go through a budget cycle, it always creates more concern, but as the year starts out, there's sometimes some clarity and some opportunity and we believe there are some opportunities and some customers that might want to do some work later this year if there is some support in the oil price. But the alternative really for those rigs is to move them to another venue and cold-stack them and the economic reality is, for us, we believe this is a better solution. And so, we've done a fairly exhaustive study. We think we could maintain the rigs better this way. And we think that we can keep them closer to hot and closer to work with those opportunities. This is a cycle. It won't last forever. It will roll out and it could easily roll out almost as aggressively as it rolled in. And so, we want to be prepared if we can to do that. And economically speaking, this was the most efficient way to meet those parameters. So, that's how we came to the conclusion. It's – we don't make these decisions lightly. We do a lot of study and a lot of market evaluation and rig evaluation. This made the most sense for these two. Simon W. Johnson - Vice President-Marketing & Contracts: And just I could, just to add there.

Jeff Leon Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Your line is open.

Go ahead. I'm sorry. Simon W. Johnson - Vice President-Marketing & Contracts: I'd just like to add to David.... David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Go ahead, Simon. Simon W. Johnson - Vice President-Marketing & Contracts: I'd just like to add on David's comments that I mean, one feature that the Adkins and the Day enjoy, they've got very big open deck spaces which is particularly conducive to development drilling. And right now, a lot of near-term demand is focused on production maintenance in the Deepwater Gulf of Mexico. And our success in the past at keeping those rigs contracted over the past 12 plus months, in part, informs our response as we look forward, we've been able to compete preferentially and we believe that'll continue.

Jeff Leon Campbell - Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc.

Analyst · Tuohy Brothers. Your line is open.

The only thing I was going to add was because sometimes different contractors say different things. But it sounds like from what you just said, that the current warm stacking regime that you're going to put these Rigs on is going to allow them to be – to maintain a suitable condition, at least through 2016 and maybe into early 2017 if oil prices settle out a little bit. Is that correct? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I would say that even beyond that.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sean Meakim with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Sean C. Meakim - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Thanks. Just I was hoping we could get an update on the Clyde Boudreaux. It's in the yard I think, for a few more months. So, obviously, it was obviously a good rig for you when it was working for Shell. And you're doing some capital work while it's in the yard. Just curious what the opportunity set looks like for a rig like that and how those upgrades could help at marketing it? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Let me make a couple comments and I'll pass over to Simon since we're in different venues. We'll just manage this. We believe that's one of the best rigs in that part of the world. As board rigs go, it's got a good bit of capabilities. It's got a great track record with a project that just executed in Australia. It's got some, I would say, capital upgrades that have been pending for some time, things that we learned – actually, very early out at the shipyard, we delivered a rig a few years ago that needed to be upgraded and changed. We've been working without those. So, the rig has been out long enough that we've got five-year survey works to do on the (50:06) equipment. We will recertify the BOPs and some other structural things. So, we're planning to go ahead and execute that work. We're doing a more detailed analysis right now of pricing the work and trying to pin down exactly what we want to do and where the real value is. We don't right now – we don't like spending money that we can't get paid for. And so, we are trying to tighten the spec on that, but we think it's one of the better rigs in that region, and we'll have an opportunity to work. So, Simon, do you have anything to add to that? Simon W. Johnson - Vice President-Marketing & Contracts: No. Just to – I guess to echo your thoughts and so a bigger rig than most of the rigs in the Southeast Asia region. It's shown excellent drilling performance in the last while, here working for Shell on Prelude. It isn't self-propelled, and it has a safety case, both critical ingredients to take advantage of work that comes up in Australia. And whilst the work prospects in Australia and New Zealand are slimmer today than they were yesterday, it still remains one of the brightest spots in the Southeast Asian rig market.

Sean C. Meakim - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open.

That's very helpful. Thank you. And then just thinking about what the environment looks like going forward for blend and extend opportunities. Are you – are operators to a point where when you're trying to have those types of discussions, are there already multiple contractors kind of competing for other types of outcomes for longer data well programs, how does that competitive environment look like as you're trying to term out some of this revenue and EBITDA? Simon W. Johnson - Vice President-Marketing & Contracts: Well, I would say that with blend and extend is that there's probably reduced potential going forward. Operators are increasingly reluctant to commit term in an uncertain environment. There has been a sharp contraction in January. I think the people are very nervous of committing traditional CapEx right now whilst the supply chain costs are still resetting to some extent. It's not the rig market that's holding it back but there are other costs that I consider and factor into their plan. So I think all of that suggests that there's probably going to be reduced potential going forward just because of the – what in the near term has been a worsening environment in terms of wanting us to commit to work programs.

Sean C. Meakim - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open.

That all make sense. Thanks for your detail. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Sean.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Smith with Heikkinen Energy Advisors. Your line is open.

David C. Smith - Heikkinen Energy Advisors

Analyst · Heikkinen Energy Advisors. Your line is open.

Good morning or good afternoon depending on where you are. It seems like operators have always been lip service to the idea that they care about the credit quality of their contractors. It was hard to see evidence of that when demand exceeded supply, but I'm wondering in this environment if you're seeing any indications or can you give any color that operators might actually get back to and then the contractors balance sheet during the rigs election process? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: It's an interesting observation and I don't disagree with you that they pay lip service to it. I would say that in a market like this that seemed really more of a collapse in there, they're intimately aware of it because it's impacting their revenue stream faster than it is ours. They're becoming, I think, more focused on the credit worthiness of their large vendors. Happily, we're in much better shape than most of them, and I think that's an opportunity for us I hope.

David C. Smith - Heikkinen Energy Advisors

Analyst · Heikkinen Energy Advisors. Your line is open.

That's why I asked you and not one of the other guys. David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Thank you.

David C. Smith - Heikkinen Energy Advisors

Analyst · Heikkinen Energy Advisors. Your line is open.

Regarding some recent news flow that the BSEE highlighted some recent problems with faulty connectors and bolts and subsidy components in BOPs. I think I saw some news on this yesterday. It sounds similar to the issue with GE products that caused a bunch of headaches in 2012, but this time, it looks like two different manufacturers involved. Just wondering if you have – I know it's early, but maybe if you have any thoughts of visibility on how this issue might be framed compared with the impact of the 2012 bolt issues? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, I can't specify – that's a very good, I would say, connecting-the-dots exercise you've just gone through. I would say that we've already been through the impact of that particular product notice. And so, we don't have any impact going forward. I can't speak to other contractors, but we've already lived through that. So, nothing going forward. Jeffrey L. Chastain - Vice President-Investor Relations & Corporate Communications: Okay, David, any final thoughts? David W. Williams - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure, Jeff. Thanks. As we bring the call to a close, I'd like you to keep these important points in mind. First, the industry in 2015 presented a number of challenges, but Noble maintained its focus on operational execution, demonstrating a high level of efficiency and safety throughout the year. We kept downtime in the fleet below our forecast and recognized a year-over-year reduction in contract drilling services cost of 18%. 2016 should be a year of even greater challenges for the offshore industry, but we believe that Noble by remaining focused on running the business at a very high level will continue to demonstrate resilience. We expect to limit margin erosion by meeting…

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.