Selim Bassoul
Analyst · Roth Capital Partners. Your line is now open
Well, let me give a macro trend. For a macro trend, we’re seeing some fascinating, what I’d call, shifts in the commercial side, which is benefiting Middleby. So, I continue to talk about what I called a change in the kitchen and if you wanted to call them basically the ability to innovate the menu, the ability to create speed in the kitchen, the ability to address labor and the ability to make sure that they can provide basically a consistent level of service. So, that’s determined differently. Let’s call that the U.S. market is truly versus international market, which is driven by unit growth, it’s really driven by the four R’s. So what are the four R’s? Renovation, Replacements, Rollouts of menu and repair. So, you can’t have a lot of this happening. So, on the other side in a sense where competition in the foodservice industry has continued to heat up, and the National Restaurant Association predicts overall nominal growth of restaurant sales of roughly 3.1% in 2015. So, when you take away, you factor inflation in its most probably not a big growth in terms of same-store sales. However, what’s going to happen? They’re going to have to find restaurants and specifically change and they’re going to find all sorts of ways to differentiate their operation from their competitors. And from that perspective, you’re going to be seeing three areas that will be game changing in terms of where they’re going to spend the money in the next five years. So, you're going to see first a lot of money spent and investment capital expenditure spent on technology, mobilized app making sure that you can order and make reservation on line. Kitchen overall is number two and work flow. One of the thing that has not been part of all what you're seeing in the last 10 years have not been about work flow. So you're going to see what I call time studies in the kitchen as well as between the kitchen and the front of the house and that’s going to involve more automation, more equipment that’s going to make the floor a lot better between the back and front of the house. So just to summarize, all of this what does it mean from a Middleby perspective to you. Small tweaks will not work. Let's make clear. Today small tweaks will not work to be able to win the game. So most chains will have to invent their kitchen with significant shifts and I can give more color to that. The fact casual will continue to push fresh meat to order menu items. I will give an example. Let's talk about the burger chain. Let's talk about Five Guys as one example. Five Guys Burgers and Fries, which is a Number 8 burger chain will only -- offers only fresh beef with customers able to order in so many different ways their burger. So this is a trend that we're seeing in fast casual. Now to do that you're talking about upgrading the equipment. You can do it on a normal griddle and chop, let's put that way. You can do it simple warming and holding equipment. You have to have very sophisticated equipment, which Five Guys buys from us because we have a unique patented technology that's designed for them that allows them to deliver that customized burger pretty fast, pretty quickly, warm and tasty to their customer across over 1,000 stores that they have now. Let's talk about fast food now to catch up they're going to have to fight back but where it goes fast that's the motivation otherwise their market share is being squeezed and they have to respond by renovating both their physical operation and their menus. So in many ways you're going to see a significant amount and you start seeing that at McDonald. They just announced that they're going to start moving a little bit more to being -- giving the customer a choice to customize likely their menu. Now they're not a fast casual, they are not Five Guys or Hub Daddy or Smash Burger or Shick Shack, but they're going to try go this way. Now if you look finally on the casual dining, in that category you're going to see this segment completing its kitchen by adding combi ovens for fat convenience cooking of menu items and replacing equipment induction cooking for smaller footprints and utility savings. In addition, this is a segment now that is doing the kitchen of the future. So I can report on that, because I am sure I am going to a question on this. We have so far seven of the top 10 chain causal dinning chain have kitchen of the future in field test. Finally seven out of ten in field test kitchen of the future. We also talked about what happened beyond Chili's. So now we have over 500 stores installed outside the Chili system. So basically you're seeing the causal dinning now really coming into what I call the automation and the kitchen of the future to remain competitive. This gives you a little bit what the segments. I talked about fast causal which continuing pushing for fresh made to order menu item. Customers are responding by literally renovating their physical operations and menus and finally the causal dinning trying to upgrade their kitchen to kitchen of the futures, combi ovens for induction and again affecting what I call the kitchen renovation and the major shift again tweaks are not going to work.