Selim Bassoul
Analyst · Baird. Your question please
Thank you. I'm going to start doing my prepared comments. I'm going to start to say that 2015 will be, on the foodservice on the restaurant side, 2015 will be a better year than 2014. From a macroeconomic side despite the impact of the harsh winter this year, we're seeing a more stable and employment figure, lower oil prices, stable food cost which basically allows restaurant sales to increase according to Technomic by 3.5% to 4%, roughly 1.5% in REIT terms is a 0.5% better than 2014. Again as I mentioned earlier, 31% of all foodservice operator expect to increase their budget for equipment and renovating their kitchen. We as primarily cooking will receive 18% of all the spending which is the largest spend of all product categories by almost double. One macroeconomic area trending in a positive direction is the national employment. This U.S. economy has added more than 200,000 jobs per month for the past eight months. The longest streak since the mid-90s according to many published reports. Employment levels helped drive foodservice sales as consumers get busier and the amount of cash they have on hand increases making it easier for them to patronize restaurants as they crave the convenience the industry provides. However, there's some negative that we'll see is that the consumer disposable personal income remains relatively flat. Despite the fact that the income was boosted temporarily by lower fuel prices and utility bills, the cost of other goods like child care and education are going up and it puts pressure on the consumer to be extremely judicious in terms of how they spend their dollars. I remember having been in the industry for a long time it used to be that operators competed for a share of the consumer's stomach so our customers competed for a share of the consumers stomach. Today, restaurants compete for a share of their wallet which drives me to say that this change is a sweet spot for Middleby because the people are winning. The share of the wallet of the consumer tend to be mostly where Middleby has focused on which is breakfast, Dunkin' Donuts, Starbucks, pizza chains because they've been able to introduce a $10 pizza and been very successful at that, fast casual. They have been all those segments where we play very dominantly have been winning that share of the wallet. So fast casual continues to add space to total industry. This is where Middleby is best positioned. Today everyone wants to be the [indiscernible] the Five Guys or the Pot Bellies, even star chefs like David Chang, Roy Choi's, Danny Meyers are joining the fray by opening fast casual. A friend of mine and one of the most respected chefs in Chicago, Paul Kahan has also started opening fast casual stores. Those concepts have capital to grow; they can open a lot of stores. In addition to value, speed and convenience was in the customer's seeking a restaurant a dining out experience will be a main driver of consumer eating out. We drive our demand for our new fire oven 90 second pizza is very promising. With labor wages going up, automation which is considered too expensive is now in demand and offers a strong ROI, so it used to be considered expensive a few years back and now the ROI is not an issue. As I mentioned to you today, we have over 1500 kitchens in the U.S. in the past, 24 months that have automated. We're the leader in kitchen cooking automation. 68% of all restaurant operators continues to push for energy efficient equipment willing to pay more for it so 68% today would rather buy an energy efficient or Energy Star equipment versus a non-Energy Star equipment and willing to pay a little bit more for it. I'm just got to give you some numbers. Middleby has the most rated ovens than anybody else in the Energy Star industry so we'll benefit from this. The final trend in restaurant is waste Management. It is now at the forefront of most restaurant operators. Legislation in Massachusetts, in California and ultimately in New York is driving the implementation of food and solid waste solution and we enter that market through our RMC division in Europe which are ahead of us in waste management and we have a very unique, patented, totally green solution for our restaurant at a very affordable cost. The payback is almost less than a year in that solution. Now going back to addressing basically what I talked about, I look at something interesting. When I look at the casual dining and I look at the customers that have been succeeding in the last two years is casual dining. I talk about Buffalo Wild Wings, Cheesecake Factory, Darden, Bloomin brands which is Outback, Carrabba's and Bonefish, Brinker with Chili's, they offering this on it well with their customers which is value, speed, nimble menus that keep on changing and they all have something in common, they are big users of Middleby equipment. Now it's bringing me to the food processing. The food processing segment is experiencing greater confidence certainty than previous years. That is the feedback from the food processing 14th annual manufacturing trend survey which also is indicating that CapEx was in that segment will be at least 5% higher than it was in 2014. Automation is one of them in other most important issues among food processors in emerging markets given the China issues that happen. In the U.S. the most important issue is increased throughput. Global sales of food processing machinery will grow around 7% according to Freedonia Group within the next 18 months. Asia will be the largest sale growth and Middleby is well positioned in that continent within our food processing. We've been able to gain a lot of customers in that segment of being a dominant player there. So I addressed during the Q&A this new legislation that was signed into law by President Obama which is called the Food Safety Modernization Act FSMA. This was signed in January 2011; it aims to insure the food supply is safe by shifting the focus of the food processing factory from responding to contamination to preventing it. How does it affect us as Middleby supplying the equipment? While most major food companies have been in compliance with FSMA, like standard for years, they are upgrading equipment as quickly as they can, even though it's not cheap to buy new equipment, it's usually in the millions of dollars but it's a lot less expensive than ruining the reputation of major brand with the food safety issue or incurring federal penalties. Now in the food processing at Middleby we're different than most of our competitors that we're customizing machines to meet specific food safety design requirements for each customers coupled with the ability to boost their bottom line through either throughput or more efficient processing. We try to generate the least waste and in the last three years we've been able to generate a payback for each customer on how we can deliver yield, better yield and better throughput and less waste. We'll outpace the industry growth similar to the commercial foodservice this year and the years coming. A huge opportunity within that segment for Middleby is how fragmented this industry is. The seven largest companies have a combined market is share of less than 15%. Middleby is today one of the largest manufacturers offering close to a complete range of product and there is a big opportunity to continue consolidating that industry. And as Tim just mentioned in the Q&A, the pipeline is heavy and strong. As I mentioned before unlike most of our competitors focusing on producing equipment that performed one specific task, we offer a complete suite of equipment covering every stage of processing for a specific segment such as beef, chicken, sausage, ham and we can keep ongoing. I want to address finally two things. I would like to address the residential market. According to a New York Times article issued on February 24, 2015 the $1 million price point has become a new sweet spot for attracting buyers. In expensive cities like New York, San Francisco, LA, $1 million homes and apartment are hardly a rarity. Now they are spreading more widely across the country and builders are eager to please the growing number of baby boomers who have risen to high salary level and managed to accumulate substantial savings. Those people are buying a lot of over $1 million homes in retiring in places whether in Florida, in California, in Idaho, Sand Valley. Just to validate that even Toll Brothers sold 585 homes in 2014 across the nation priced at $1 million or more according to MetroStudy. This is nearly three times the number it sold just two years previously. Viking is very well positioned with builders. Toll Brothers is one of those customers of ours so I can name others recently that had basically become a customer of Viking. DR Horton, Pulte, Learner have seen similar patterns where they are starting to build homes over $750,000 and they have all been placing orders with Viking recently for higher end kitchens. I want to go back and name something that I don't want to forget. This is what brought us to the party. The pizza industry has been very strong partner of Middleby for many, many years. So I'm going to give you a glance of where it's going in 2015. If Americans would choose to eat only one food for the remainder of their lives, I will assure you it has to be pizza. Americans eat an average 100 acres of pizza daily or 350 slice per second and this is happening now and all over the world in China, in India. Just to give you a perspective, pizza is a $40 billion industry in the U.S. and it makes up approximately 17% of all restaurants in the nation. The reason I'm talking about pizza because the pizza industry is reinventing itself and we're in the middle of this reinvention. What's happening is today, the pizza business and the segment has been the first to innovate in social media, to place order online, document that there's many articles on Dominos, Papa John's, Pizza Hut what they've done and even Little Caesars. They have been very, very strong in outdoing their marketing strategies for website and e-commerce. In addition, they were the first to be able to deliver especially I remember in 2009 when Pizza Hut launched a deal which allowed customers to choose any set of toppings and crust for $10 per pizza. Since then those trends have proliferated across the pizza industry, reviving the industry after its declined during the recession. We're working hand in hand with many of those customers with those four pizza chains to deliver for them the quick service pizza concept and the ability to continue improving their offering for speed and consistency, less straining, less labor and faster. We feel very strongly about our partnership with our customers and I'm basically going back to Tony Brenner who asked about Viking and when is the momentum going. The story is intact today and we've worked hard to get it done. We're still having legacies of problems that we've inherited in terms of problems. However, we're trying to turn the previous customer dissatisfaction into winning back customers by innovation, by working with dealers, by reducing the number of SKUs we had from 6000 to less than a 1000 exiting the bad business lines that small appliances cooking schools. We have whittled down the dealer network to only strong dealers that offer prime placement and service so we've gone down from 1,500 dealers to now less than a 1,000. We put in place a three year warranty and a no equipment warranty that has been in existence at Middleby since 1999. If you reach out today to our dealers which we had to win over again, they will tell you that they are very excited about what we've done. You will hear comments that I'm now again confident selling this brand. In the last two years since Middleby took over we've had low service call that have really turned things around. I will tell you a comment that one of the dealers I just visited in the New York area that had basically abandoned Viking. He said Selim, pardon my French, but you are really kicking ass with the 7-series. It's the best range on the market. Keep on doing what you're doing. Thank you for following up with the French door oven and I can't wait to see your new refrigeration. This is the type of comments we're getting and I want to see the momentum growing and I want to thank you for staying with me and Tim on this conference call. This ends my comments, thank you.