Mark Mason
Analyst · FBR Capital Markets. Please go ahead
I’d like to now discuss the national and regional economies as they influence our business today. First, I would like to remind everyone that we’re fortunate to operate in some of the most attractive market areas in the United States today. Strategically, we are focused on the major markets in the Western United States, which today enjoy lower employment and substantially higher rates of population growth, job creation, commercial and residential construction and real estate value appreciation than the remainder of the country. The most recent Mortgage Bankers Association monthly forecast projects total loan originations to increase 6.8% this year over last year, and to decline by 20% in 2017. The forecast that declined from 2016 to 2017 is driven by a 51% decline in refinancing volume, however, our focus is always been on the purchase market. The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts that purchased mortgage origination are projected to increase 8% in the third quarter and 3% in 2017. Despite the increase in short-term interest rates by the Federal Reserve in December, long-term interest rates have fallen along with mortgage rates and continue near historic lows. The 10-year treasury yield fell to a record low 1.3% recently following the Brexit vote and remains low, hovering around 1.5% to 1.6%. This should keep interest in refinancing strong and support housing affordability. Nationally purchases are expected to comprise 59% of mortgage loan volume this year. Housing starts for this year are expected to be at 10% over 2015 levels and home sales for new and existing are expected to increase 6% during the same period. During the second quarter, purchases comprised 54% of originations nationally and 55% of originations in the Pacific Northwest. HomeStreet continues to perform at levels above the national and regional averages with purchases accounting for 69% of our closed loans and 65% of our interest rate lock and forward sale commitments in the quarter. Home price increases in the Washington, Oregon and California based on FHFA data accelerated across the board in the latest quarter, with year-over-year rates ranging from 8.2% in California to 11.4% in Oregon. According to the most recent Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index report, which measures the change in value of residential real estate in 10 metropolitan areas, the index gained 4.7% from a year earlier. Seattle gained 10.7% over the last 12 months. Portland gained 12.3%, San Francisco gained 7.7%, and Los Angeles was up 5.9%. The rate of job growth in Washington, Oregon, California averaged more than 3% last quarter, 58% higher than U.S. growth rate of 1.9%. The average unemployment rate in the same three states averaged 5.4% last quarter slightly more than the national average of 4.9%. This difference appears to be due to new job seekers migrate into our faster growing western states. People are again moving to where the jobs are. Looking forward over the remaining two quarters in 2016 in our mortgage banking segment, we currently anticipate single-family mortgage loan lock and forward sale commitment volume of $2.4 billion in the third quarter and $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter of this year. We anticipate mortgage loans held for sale closing volumes of $2.6 billion and $2.0 billion in the third and fourth quarter of this year respectively. As Melba stated the seasonality is expected to produce greater variation in reported results due to the timing of recognition related revenues and expenses and the expected imbalance between locks and closing. This imbalance is expected negatively impacted the quarters where closing exceed locks and vice versa. Additionally, we expect our mortgage composite profit margin to come back down to a range of between 320 and 330 basis points over that period and range between 315 and 325 basis points during 2017.As the increase refinancing activity wanes our composite margin loss will fall. We expect the increased TRID-related cost we experienced in the first and second quarter to continue through the next several quarters until we complete the installations of new loan origination system in the first quarter of 2017. Looking to 2017, we anticipate single-family mortgage loan lock and forward sale commitments and loan closing volume of $9.1 billion. These volumes will be subject to the typical seasonality we experienced, the highest production coming in the second and third quarters of the year offset by the lowest production in the first and fourth quarters of the year. Volume will also to be highly depended on the housing market in which we do business. Local economic conditions, affected employment growth and wages as well as prevailing interest rates. In our commercial and consumer banking segment over the remaining two quarters of this year, we expect to continue net loan portfolio growth of approximately 4% to 6% quarterly and also remain within that range during 2017. Reflecting the further flattening of the yield curve since last quarter, we now expect our consolidated net interest margin to trend down further to 3.30% to 3.35% by the fourth quarter and remain in this range of 3.30% to 3.35% during 2017 absent changes in market rates, and low prepayment fees. Reflecting the seasonal peak of origination in sale activity as we believe that non-interest expense growth in the second quarter represented a peak for the year. Therefore consistent with our full year guidance on average of 3% growth per quarter for the full year, we do not expect our non-interest expense to meaningfully increase for the remainder of the year. In fact, we expect non-interest expense to decline somewhat in the fourth quarter of this year. During 2017, our non-interest expenses are expected to again grow on average approximately 3% per quarter, reflecting our plan continued investment in growth and infrastructure. This growth rate will vary somewhat quarter-over-quarter driven by seasonality in our single-family closed loan volume and in relation to the timing of our investments in growth in both of our segments. This concludes our prepared comments. We appreciate you joining our call today and your patience during our presentation. Melba and I would be happy to answer any questions you have at this time.