Mark Mason
Analyst · D. A. Davidson. Please go ahead
Thank you Melba. I’d like to now discuss the national and regional economies as they influence our business today. First, we’re fortunate to operate in some of the most attractive market areas in the United States today. Strategically, we are focused on the major markets in the Western United States, which today enjoy lower unemployment and substantially higher rates of population growth, job creation, commercial and residential construction and real estate value appreciation in the remainder of the country. The major markets that we focus on are substantially larger than most of the other markets in the United States which gives us ample opportunity to grow. The most recent Mortgage Bankers Association monthly forecast projects total loan originations to increase 12.8% this year over last year, and to decline by 16.2% next year. The forecasted declined from 2016 to 2017 is driven by a 47% decline in expected refinancing volume, however, the forecasted decline in refinanced volume should impact our business to the degree it will nationally as our focus has always been on the purchase market. The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts that purchased mortgage originations are projected to increase 10.6% next year. Despite the increase in short-term interest rates by the Federal Reserve last December, long-term interest rates have fallen this year along with mortgage rates and continue near historic lows. While the 10-year treasury yield has increased somewhat since it fell to a record low of 1.3% following the Brexit vote. It continues to remain low on an absolute basis at approximately 1.7%. These low rates should continue to support housing affordability and keep demand of re-financing high. Nationally purchases are expected to comprise 54% of mortgage loan volume this year and 70% next year. Housing starts nationally for this year are expected to be up 8.5% from 2016 to 2017. It is worth noting that housing starts have not yet fully recovered from their lows during the recession and are expected to approach their long led average level of 1.4 million units by the fourth quarter of 2018. During the third quarter, purchases comprised 53% of originations nationally and 51% of originations in the Pacific Northwest. HomeStreet continues to perform at levels above the national and regional averages with purchases accounting for 64% of our closed loans and 53% of our interest rate lock and forward sale commitments in the quarter. Home price increases in the Washington, Oregon and California based on FHFA data continue to remain strong in the latest quarter, with year-over-year rates ranging from 7.2% in California to 11.7% in Oregon. According to the most recent Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index report, which measures the change in value of residential real estate in 10 metropolitan areas, the index gained 4.2% from a year earlier. Seattle gained 11.2% over the last 12 months. Portland 12.4%, San Francisco 6%, and Los Angeles gained 5.5%. The rate of job growth in Washington, Oregon, and California averaged more than 3% last quarter, 72% higher than the US growth rate of 1.8%. The average unemployment rate in the same three states averaged 5.2% last quarter slightly more than the national average of 4.9%. This elevated level of unemployment in our markets is influenced by our growing labor mobility. In areas of strong job growth migration of workers to areas where job opportunities are greater tends to hold up unemployment rates. Looking forward to the next two quarters in our Mortgage Banking segment, we currently anticipate single-family mortgage loan lock and forward loan sale commitment volume to be $2 billion in the fourth quarter and $2.1 billion in the first quarter of next year. We anticipate mortgage held for sale closing volumes of $2.4 billion and $1.8 billion during the same periods respectively. We are entering our seasonally slower mortgage production period as the fourth and first quarters are typically the slowest for mortgage originations and the second and third quarters typically the strongest. In addition as we continue to close the elevated level of interest rate lock in the forward commitments our Mortgage Banking results will be negatively impacted due to closings exceeding locks. This earning impact due to the difference between recognizing revenues and expenses due to the imbalance of timing of locks and closings should reverse again as we enter into seasonal mortgage production increases in the middle of next year. Looking to 2017, we anticipate an increase in single-family mortgage loan lock and forward sale commitments to total $9.3 billion and loan closing volume to total $9.4 billion next year. These volumes will be subject to the typical seasonality we experienced. Volumes will also to be highly depended on the housing markets in which we do business, local economic conditions, affecting employment, growth and wages as well as prevailing interest rates. Additionally we expect our mortgage composite profit margin to come back down to a range of between 315 and 325 basis points over the next few quarters and stay within that range next year. We expect the increased TRID related costs we experienced in the third to continue through the next several quarters until we complete the installations of our new loan origination system early next year. In our Commercial and Consumer Banking segment, we expect quarterly net loan portfolio growth to approximate 4% to 6% a quarter next year. Reflecting the continued flatness to the yield curve and consistent with our guidance last quarter, we expect our consolidated net interest margin to trend between 3.30% to 3.35% during the next two quarters and continuing through next year, absent changes in market rates, and low prepayment fees. Reflecting the seasonal peak of origination in sale activities we believe that non-interest expense growth in the third quarter represented a peak for the year. Therefore we do not expect our non-interest expense to meaningfully increase in the fourth quarter. In fact we expect non-interest expense to decline somewhat from the third quarter levels. During 2017, our non-interest expenses are expected to grow on average of approximately 2% per quarter, reflecting the continued investment in our growth and infrastructure. This growth rate will vary somewhat quarter-over-quarter driven by seasonality in our single-family closed loan volume and in relation to the timing of further investments in growth in both of our segments. This concludes our prepared comments today. We thank you for your patience and attention. Melba and I would be happy to answer any questions you have at this time. Operator?