Dennis Story
Analyst · Raymond James
Thanks, Eddie. I will review our financial performance, our 2016 full year guidance and finish with some initial comments on 2017. So, Manhattan continues to deliver strong organic top line growth and quality earnings leverage. We posted total revenue of $152.2 million, increasing 7% over Q3 2015. Adjusting for negative currency impact mainly in the pound, total revenue grew 8% organic. By region, Americas grew 8%, APAC grew 31% and EMEA declined by 10% compared to Q3 last year. Overall, demand for our solutions continues to be solid in our target markets. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter, was a record $0.50 increasing 19% over prior year on solid revenue growth, strong expense management and our buyback program. Our GAAP diluted earnings per share also was a record $0.47, increasing 24% over Q3 2015 on our strong operating performance. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP adjustments is included in our earnings release today. The remainder of my P&L discussion represents our adjusted results. License revenue for the quarter totaled $21.6 million, up 13% over prior year. License revenue exceeded our Q3 expectations slightly as we managed to close a couple of midsized deals we forecasted to close in Q4 as part of our previous guidance. From a regional perspective, Americas posted license of $18.1 million, EMEA $1.8 million and APAC $1.7 million. As always, our license performance depends heavily on the number and relative value of large deals we close in any quarter. With the strength of Q3 license and a sluggish global macro, we expect full year 2016 license growth to come in at about 6%, resulting in about $83 million of total license revenue in 2016. Shifting to services, while overall customer demand remains solid, our services revenue came in below our expectations in the quarter as several implementations were delayed into Q4 and 2017. As Eddie mentioned, these are customer-specific, mostly concentrated in retail and appear to be driven by retail and macro sluggishness. Q3 services revenue totaled $119.3 million increasing 6% year-over-year. While we expect Q4 total services to be down sequentially from Q3 about 2% to 3%, we are expecting year-over-year growth of about 8% to 9% in Q4. Our services revenue is comprised of two revenue streams, consulting and maintenance. Our consulting revenue for the quarter totaled $84.8 million growing 5% over Q3 last year. As a reminder, with Q4 holiday seasonality and many retail clients idling back implementations in preparation for the peak season, we typically expect Q4 to be down sequentially due to the seasonality from Q3 by about 2% to 3%. We do expect Q4 year-over-year growth to be about 9% to 11%. Year-over-year, we have grown our services practice by about 150 associates, up 8%. We continue to actively recruit and hire additional associates to support demand and focus on customer satisfaction. For Q4, we are targeting about 40 hires globally and another 100 plus hires, primarily in the first half of 2017. Maintenance revenue for the quarter totaled $34.4 million, increasing 9% over last year on license revenue performance. Retention rates also remained very strong at 90 plus percent, while there were no major impacts this quarter. As a reminder, we recognized annual maintenance renewal revenue on a cash basis, so the timing of cash collections can cause quarter-to-quarter lumpiness. Consolidated services margins were a strong 59.2% in the quarter on revenue growth and solid utilization. For the year, we expect our 2016 services margins to be in the 58.3% to 58.5% range. As in prior years, Q4 services margins will decline sequentially over Q3, principally driven by the retail holiday season as clients idle implementations and the absorption of second half hiring takes place. All in, we expect Q4 services margins to land in the 57.2% to 57.8% range. Turning to operating income and margins, Q3 adjusted operating income totaled a record $57.2 million with operating margin of 37.6% compared to 34.5% in Q3 2015. We don’t expect 37.6% to be our go forward baseline as we are still investing for long-term growth. The quality of our earnings leverage this quarter is driven by record revenues and strong services margin and expense discipline. In addition to the services personnel I mentioned, we also are recruiting for R&D and sales and marketing talent. Year-to-date, excluding currency, our adjusted operating margin is 34.9% versus reported 35.2%. So for 2016 full year, we expect about 280 basis point expansion in operating margin over 2015, pegging 2016 full year adjusted operating income growth at 19% or about $209 million and an operating margin of about 34.5%. Finally as a reminder, Q4 margins are sequentially lower than Q3, driven by traditional seasonality. So that covers the operating results. Regarding taxes, our adjusted effective income tax rate was 37.6% for the quarter. We now expect our full year 2016 effective tax rate to be about 37.2% with Q4 to remain at 37.0%. Transitioning to diluted shares for the quarter, diluted shares totaled 71.7 million shares, down from Q2 2016 72.2 million shares. We invested $25 million, repurchasing about 420,000 shares of Manhattan stock in Q3. Year-to-date, we have invested $108.5 million, reducing common shares outstanding by 1.9 million shares. For the balance of 2016, assuming no Q4 share repurchases, we estimate Q4 diluted shares to be about 71.7 million shares and the full year weighted average diluted shares to be 72.2 million. And finally on shares, last week our Board approved raising our share repurchase authority limit to a total of $50 million. Turning to cash flow, for the quarter, cash flow from operations totaled a record $42 million, bringing year-to-date cash flow from operations to $101.5 million, up 21% over prior year. DSOs were 60 days compared to 55 days in Q2 2016 and capital expenditures were $1.4 million in Q3. We estimate full year CapEx to be in the range of $7 million to $8 million. So as you can see our balance sheet continues to support long-term strategic flexibility and stability with cash and investments totaling $111 million and zero debt at September 30, 2016, compared to $95 million at June 30, 2016. That covers my Q3 remarks. Let’s move on to our updated 2016 guidance and some early comments on 2017. For 2016, adjusted earnings per share with our better than expected Q3 earnings per share performance, we are raising our guidance estimate to $1.82 to $1.84 from our previous range of $1.78 to $1.81. The new range represents 20% to 21% growth over our 2015 adjusted EPS of $1.52. For Q4, we expect earnings per share to be lower than Q3 2016, given the combined impact of seasonally lower Q4 services revenue due to the retail busy season and new hire activity. Full year GAAP EPS guidance estimates increased to $1.68 to $1.70 from our previous estimate of $1.63 to $1.66, representing 20% to 21% growth over our 2015 GAAP EPS of $1.40. For reference, the guidance table is provided in today’s earnings release. For 2016 revenue, we are scaling back our full year revenue growth estimates from 10% to 11.5% to 8.5% to 9.5% or $603 million to $609 million. The adjustment is timing and risk driven. Regarding timing, we are factoring in the Q3 client project implementation pushes combined with traditional Q4 retail holiday busy season where many retailers naturally idle implementations. On the risk side, we expect more European FX headwinds, about 1 to 2 points of risk there and the general anemic macro hangover to continue in Q4. In summary, I expect us to come in above the midpoint of our guidance range for revenue and EPS. I said come in above the midpoint of our guidance range for revenue and EPS, posting another record year in total revenue, operating profit and earnings per share, with an organic growth profile for total revenue of 8.5% to 9.5%, operating profit, 19% to 20% and adjusted earnings per share, 20% to 21%. That covers my comments on 2016. Shifting focus to 2017, very, very early, but similar to prior years. We are just starting our 2017 budget cycle to hear a few comments for adjusted EPS modeling purposes. Overall, we expect the competitive environment to be about the same and continue to remain cautious on the global macro environment. Our thesis hasn’t changed. We are committed to driving shareholder return through steady revenue growth, consistent earnings growth and efficient management of our capital structure. With our growth strategy and competitive position, we are positive on our outlook and still believe there is solid opportunity to take market share and drive potential earnings leverage. For revenue, consistent with prior years, we are targeting organic total revenue growth in the high single to low double digit range. We are pegging at 8% to 10% currently. This estimate is currently consistent with Street estimates, which we will fine tune on our Q4 earnings call. Adjusted operating margins, we are targeting operating margin expansion of about 25 basis points over 2016, net of incremental strategic investments in R&D and sales and marketing initiatives to drive further competitive differentiation, growth and market awareness. Any potential upside will be addressed on a quarter-to-quarter basis going forward. For an effective tax rate, our best estimate at this stage is 37.0%, subject to U.S. federal, state and foreign tax legislation changes. Diluted shares were currently projecting 72 million diluted shares per quarter, which assumes no buyback activity in Q4 2016 or the full year 2017. So that covers my financial update. Now I will turn the call back to Eddie for the business update.