Earnings Labs

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 4, 2016

$167.49

+1.39%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Grand Canyon Education's Second Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Brian Roberts, General Counsel. Sir, you may begin. Brian M. Roberts - Secretary, Senior Vice President & General Counsel: Thank you, operator. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us today on this conference call to discuss Grand Canyon's 2016 second quarter results. Speaking on today's call is our President and CEO, Brian Mueller; and our CFO, Dan Bachus. This call is scheduled to last one hour. During the Q&A period, we will try to answer all of your questions. And we apologize in advance if there are questions that we are unable to address due to time constraints. I would like to remind you that many of our comments today will contain forward-looking statements with respect to GCU's future performance that involve risks and uncertainties. Various factors could cause GCU's actual results to be materially different from any future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These factors are discussed in GCU's SEC filings, including our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2015; our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q; and our current reports on Form 8-K. We recommend that all investors thoroughly review these reports before taking a financial position in GCU, and we do not undertake any obligation to update anyone with regard to forward-looking statements made during this conference call. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Brian. Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good…

Daniel E. Bachus - Chief Financial Officer, Director - Grand Canyon University Foundation

Management

Thanks, Brian. Revenue per student was up year-over-year due to an increase in ground enrollment as a percentage of total enrollment during the spring semester and an increase in the revenue per student year-over-year for ground students. When factoring in room, board and fees, the revenue per student is higher for ground students than for our online students. Online revenue per student was flat year-over-year as the 1% tuition price increase in September 2015 was offset by the continued mix shift in lower revenue per student per day program. Scholarships as a percent of revenue decreased from 14.9% in the second quarter 2015 to 14.2% in the second quarter of 2016, due primarily to decrease in the traditional scholarship rate year-over-year as a percentage of total revenue due to an increase in ancillary revenues. Online scholarships, as a percentage of related revenue, were flat year-over-year. Bad debt expense, as a percentage of revenue, decreased to 1.8% in Q2 2016 from 2% in Q2 2015, primarily due to favorable improvements in collections, but also due to an increase in retention rates. Our effective tax rate for the second quarter of 2016 was 38.4% as compared to 39% in the second quarter of 2015. The lower tax rate in the first quarter of 2016 over the prior year was primarily due to the continued phase-in of market sourcing for apportionment of Arizona sales and 0.5% decrease in the Arizona corporate tax rate. We repurchased 396,000 shares of our common stock at an aggregate cost of $14.6 million during the first quarter of 2016 and although we had no share repurchases during our second quarter 2016, we have spent $782,000 in share buyback in July 2016. Turning to the balance sheet and cash flows, total cash unrestricted and restricted and short-term investments at…

Operator

Operator

Our first question comes from Peter Appert from Piper Jaffray. Your line is open. Peter P. Appert - Piper Jaffray & Co. (Broker): Thanks. Good afternoon. So, Brian or Dan, the CapEx decline next year is pretty dramatic. Obviously, it suggests pretty dramatic improvement in your free cash flow, so two questions. One is just how you're thing about priorities in terms of deployment of that cash flow, are you comfortable just accumulating significant amounts of cash on the balance sheet? And then secondly, should we think about 2017 as just a pause in spending, does the spending pick up again in 2018 or beyond or is that the new level of CapEx going forward? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, the reason that it's going to be quite a bit less is that we have two reasons. One, we have over the last four, five years built the stock that does not need to be replicated with more students and so the student union and a library and the arena and certain athletic facilities, those are one-time things. Once you have them, you don't have to build additional ones, because you have additional students. So that heavy lifting is one of the reasons. And the second reason is that we have built out in advance this year. And so we're little out in front from a residence hall perspective, a little bit out in front from a classroom perspective. So for the first – and so that puts us in a nice spot and you are right, we'll start accumulating cash. I would say that for the first six months or so, we're going to accumulate cash and we're going to let that build. But then going forward, as we go from the 17,000 students to the – between 25,000 students and 30,000 students on our campus here, we won't have to again have – we've again build out in advance the heavy lifting, a lot of that's done. And so, we're not going to return to $160 million or $170 million a year. It will be probably at $100 million or less as we go forward. Peter P. Appert - Piper Jaffray & Co. (Broker): Okay. And...

Daniel E. Bachus - Chief Financial Officer, Director - Grand Canyon University Foundation

Management

As the... Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: As the cash continues to accumulate, we will consider stock buyback and that would probably be our – the thing that we would go to in addition just to accumulating the cash. Peter P. Appert - Piper Jaffray & Co. (Broker): Great. Thank you. And then, second question, Brian, just help me understand better the need for increased ad spending. You've had such great momentum from an enrollment perspective, what drives the need to spend more? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: There are just some very interesting things happening in higher education that we stand on the very positive side of those things. The students are taking five years and six years to graduate from four-year programs. They are borrowing increased dollars as a result of those fifth year and six year that they're on at campus to complete programs. And while that's happening, our students are graduating in less than four years. As I talk to students, which I do frequently, it's hard to find students that took a full four years to graduate. More and more students are trying – are figuring out how to use the flexibility of our programs to cut a semester or two off of the total time they spend here. When they go home for summer break, for example, not only do they go home to work, but they frequently will take two courses online, because we have that flexibility, over 150 of our programs are delivered online. And so you do that for two summers, you cut a semester out of the time it takes you to complete. And so we want to talk about those things as reasons people should consider Grand Canyon. It…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from Nick Makidas from Baird (26:45). Your line is open.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Yes, thanks. I guess just sticking with the online enrollment, the nice increase, can you guys talk about was that just mostly the driver of the increase spend in the quarter? How are things tracking from a conversion ratio online currently? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Things are tracking really well. We have, as we move forward a decreasing reliance on affiliate generated leaves. Search is really – the amount of interest in Grand Canyon is really going up and so the amount of interest we are getting through people doing their own searches is going up. And so we're getting higher-quality interest. We're getting higher conversion rates with that kind of advertising and you're seeing the trend, I mean, in the last three quarters or four quarters our admissions advisory expense as a percent of revenue keeps going down. And so those things are moving in a positive direction. But like I told Peter before, we're challenging a lot of the sacred cows in higher education that are really to families' and students' benefit. The fact that students – many students are finishing in less than four years for reduced amount of debt, getting started on their careers a year early, they are starting to understand better the time value of money, those are all things that we want to communicate to middle-class families.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Okay. And then I guess just kind of mix perspective, is it pretty similar online with the majority within the Southwest still or how is the brand awareness, I guess, moving outside the Southwest region? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: You know it's still we're pretty – we are focused – still focused more in the Southwest than rest of the part of country, especially because the California system is so – under so much pressure. We grew about 7% – little over 7%, but we grew in California about 14.5%, and so there's a lot of people in California looking for opportunities both traditional students and nontraditional students. National cable TV buy is still very effective, though. And so we're still growing nationally, but California, we're developing a very strong relationship with the community colleges in California. And there I just talked to a student yesterday who came from the community college system, she had earned 60 credits, and she came here because she realized that with 12 months of school she could be done, and she is done and – but she's not leaving, so she's staying around; we hired her. But California is very good for us, the rest of Southwest is, but we are still growing in other areas of the country too.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Okay. And I guess just switching to the on-ground campus, can you just – how you guys are feeling about the applications heading into the fall period, and then I know you mentioned in that 17,500 on ground, just how is that tracking year-over-year and on campus, I guess with the build out, with the facilities you fill? Do you guys have sufficient capacity to fit everyone? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes, yes, we're going to right at about 17,500, which is what we anticipated. So we feel good about that. But we also knew that we had build out in advance, and so we won't need additional residence halls next year, and we won't need any additional classroom space next year. The 170,000 square foot engineering building is one that is near completion. It's our second engineering building. We're extremely excited to open that up. But it'll only be about half the capacity this first year, and then they'll start to fill up the second year. The people that run our classroom – responsible for scheduling our classrooms are very excited about us being out in front of it this year.

Unknown Speaker

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks for taking the questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question is Sara Gubins from Bank of America. Your line is open.

Sara Rebecca Gubins - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Thanks. Good afternoon. Given the incremental investments that you talked about, how should we think about your margins going forward beyond 2016? And I'm wondering if you see enough levers that we should still expect the potential for margin expansion, or is the potential that they could be perhaps down given incremental investment?

Daniel E. Bachus - Chief Financial Officer, Director - Grand Canyon University Foundation

Management

We haven't, obviously, spent a lot of time on 2017 yet, but I think the goal for the University would be to continue to drive small but steady margin expansion. And so the hope is that the investments that we're making will translate as you go into 2017, maybe even the second half of 2017 and 2018 into margin expansion. This isn't changing our thoughts long-term about slight annual margin expansions.

Sara Rebecca Gubins - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

And the incremental spend on advertising, do you view that as a temporary measure to highlight some of the things that you talked about or is that more of an incremental step up that's likely to just stay higher on an ongoing basis? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: If I had to sit here and wave the magic wand right now I would say for a year or so, maybe a year and a half, and then we would hope that it would drop. And so who knows. I mean it's a very fluid situation with regards to the higher ed enrollments. Really, there's nothing like this has really ever happened before where a traditional campus is gone from 900 students with 17,000 students in a period of five years or six years and so it's the first time around for all of us. But we've held that the 10% number or just a little under where we've purposely decided to go up a little bit. I'm hoping that that's a temporary thing for year and a half now we will go back down.

Sara Rebecca Gubins - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Great. And then in terms of program development, Brian you have talked on prior calls about areas of focus anything new to highlight in program development? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: No it's really computer science, it's information technology, it's the engineering programs, big data, lot of STEM related things, both underground and online that's our biggest focus in terms of expansion. And then there's always niche programs that you add in to the programs that we've had for a longer period of time, things like autism on the education side is something that's really growing. And so we look to add things to our business programs and our healthcare programs, but the biggest majority of the expansion in the last year has been in the engineering, computer science and information technology.

Sara Rebecca Gubins - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Got it. Okay. And then just last question, regulatory question, based on your assessment of the defense repayment regulations, is there any reason to think that you might be required to post letters of credit?

Daniel E. Bachus - Chief Financial Officer, Director - Grand Canyon University Foundation

Management

No. We're hopeful not. You know, obviously the one part of the regulations that we as a public company have to watch is, is you know, what a material event is under those new regulations. But our concern is these events obviously happen for universities all the time, both not-for-profit and for-profit and when they occur for not-for-profits, nobody seems to know about them. And so they wouldn't be forced to post a letter of credit where with us because of SEC regulations, we have to disclose those and then will that qualify. So, with that said, I don't think there's anything that we're currently looking at that would make us think we're going to have to post a letter of credit. But as things evolve, we'll have to watch that.

Sara Rebecca Gubins - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question is from Trace Urdan from Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Trace Adair Urdan - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Thanks. Good afternoon. I want to ask a follow-up to Sara's question about the program development and it sounds like you're – it sounds like from your comments that may be you're introducing new online programs at a slightly more elevated pace. And I'm wondering two things. One is, is there anything you can tell us about the existing programs that might be changing or that you can anticipate might be changing? And then the other question is, you know, does this in any way change the kind of profitability, if you are sort of enrolling a smaller number of students in a greater number of programs, does that have any kind of an impact that might be noticeable in terms of the gross margins – sort of – the efficiency of classroom usage and that kind of thing? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: The answer to the question is, no, we don't anticipate that. We are making an investment, but we don't believe that that investment will be material in terms of our overall financials. The answer to the first question, though, is really an important in my opinion. I think the whole country is finding out that the more generic programs that the largest numbers of students in our country are enrolled in are programs that are not as productive in terms of their impact on a person's career as maybe they once were. As a higher percentage of all Americans earn advanced degrees, those more general programs don't carry as much weight in the marketplace as they used to. And I've been saying this for…

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program. And you all may disconnect. Everyone have a great day.