Earnings Labs

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. (LOPE)

Q1 2016 Earnings Call· Tue, May 10, 2016

$167.49

+1.39%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the First Quarter 2016 Grand Canyon Education Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will have a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host for today's conference Mr. Brian Roberts, General Counsel. Sir, you may begin. Brian M. Roberts - Secretary, Senior Vice President & General Counsel: Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today on this conference call to discuss Grand Canyon's 2016 first quarter results. Speaking on today's call is our President and CEO, Brian Mueller; and our CFO, Dan Bachus. This call is scheduled to last one hour. During the Q&A period, we will try to answer all of your questions. And we apologize in advance if there are questions that we are unable to address due to time constraints. I would like to remind you that many of our comments today will contain forward-looking statements with respect to GCU's future performance that involve risks and uncertainties. Various factors could cause GCU's actual results to be materially different from any future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These factors are discussed in GCU's SEC filings, including our Annual Report on Form 10-K, for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2015; our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q; and our current reports on Form 8-K. We recommend that all investors thoroughly review these reports before taking a financial position in GCU, and we do not undertake any obligation to update anyone with regard to the forward-looking statements made during this conference call. And with that, I will turn the call over to Brian.…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Peter Appert with Piper Jaffray. Your line is open. Peter P. Appert - Piper Jaffray & Co. (Broker): Thanks. Good afternoon. So, Brain, at the Investor Day you hosted earlier this year, you outlined some numbers and then (19:02) in fact really interesting inflexion in free cash flow over the next couple years. I'm wondering how you're thinking about that in the context of the transformation of being off the table. Is the capital spending, as a percent of revenue, expected to stay at a much lower level going forward? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: We really got a little bit out in front from a build standpoint this year. We spent more than we anticipated, and especially with regards to residence hall and also classrooms, we got out a little bit in front. And so, we're not changing our enrollment numbers going forward for next year at all on the campus, but we won't have near the CapEx has been next year that we had this year because we just build out in advance. Peter P. Appert - Piper Jaffray & Co. (Broker): And should we still look at those number you presented though few months ago as operative for the next several years? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. Yes. Peter P. Appert - Piper Jaffray & Co. (Broker): Okay. Great. And then, just in terms of kind of, I guess, really noise you're seeing in terms of the timing and enrollment system, is some of that related to the fact that the advertising expense was lower this quarter? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: No. The traditional campus students going in the summer is something that we're new at, and we made a guess and we overestimated a little bit. So, we got hurt a little bit that way and the rest of it was just kind of schedule related, mainly schedule related, with a little bit of that single course problem that was mainly in our nursing area. That single course was impacted by – none of that is really material from a standpoint of guidance that we've given and numbers that we expect to hit going forward. Peter P. Appert - Piper Jaffray & Co. (Broker): Great. Thanks, Brian. Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Sara Gubins with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

Sara Rebecca Gubins - BofA Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Hi. Thanks. Good afternoon. In terms of demand, could you talk about how start trends looked for bachelor's versus graduate degree students online? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: The demand is as great as it's ever been I think. And we have seen no decline in the demand. The difference is that the markets fragmented, and there's a lot more players. And so, but we are happy about is that, we have been able to stay true to our projections from a quality perspective. Graduate students, as a percent of online students, is up again, which is very difficult to do, we think, in this market but we've been able accomplish that again. And then, even in the undergraduate area, the students that we're recruiting are for the most part in the areas that we wanted to recruit them in. And so, we have not seen a big shift other than from a competition standpoint.

Sara Rebecca Gubins - BofA Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Okay. And are you seeing any big changes from a competitive landscape in terms of approaches for student recruiting or anything else that where you need to change your approach? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: No. We experiment with stuff all the time. I mean, we always have pilot projects going, and we're always looking at new and different ways to interact with the market and with our potential students. And so that's an ongoing thing, both on ground and online. But as far as us seeing something really different for online students, I can't say that we have. People are getting very aggressive with scholarship offers for ground students, and it happened at about this time last year that same thing happened. We hold the line on that. We make offers – we're usually the first ones to make offers to students from a scholarship standpoint, and we stand by those offers. And if somebody else comes out and says, well, we're going to do this in order to beat your offer, we let that go. We have to be realistic about – we think we have to be realistic about building confidence with families from different schools and in different markets, so that they don't think that you're going to change from one year to the next or one month to the next, what you offer is going to be and how you're going to be go about things. And so, we've seen that change though. In a number of ways, what we're doing here is very disruptive, and people are responding to it but we're not going to respond to it in a way that we think will lessen the perception of who we are in the market.

Sara Rebecca Gubins - BofA Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Right. And then just last question. Now that the non-profit conversion process is over, should we expect something new from a strategic perspective either online or on ground, and that could be geographic expansion or something else? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: No. I don't think – you shouldn't expect anything different in the next couple years. We were disappointed in some legislation that we try to get through the Arizona legislature with regards to our property tax rate. If anything would change our plans, it would be that but other than that, no, we're still expecting to grow this traditional campus out between 25,000 students and 30,000 students, grow our online campus to 6 percentage points a year and keep growing out new programs. That's the most important thing, is to keep growing out new programs that we think will lead to good paying jobs that will address economic needs for people.

Sara Rebecca Gubins - BofA Merrill Lynch

Analyst

Right. Thank you. Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital. Your line is open.

Jeffrey Marc Silber - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Thanks so much. Just wanted to go back to the competition question. You mentioned some of the competitor is getting more aggressive on the scholarship side. Are they focusing on any specific vertical? And I'll ask the same question for online, are you seeing any more intense competition in any of your online verticals? Thanks. Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: There's increased competition in the nursing online vertical and there's increased competition in the education, especially at the graduate level online vertical. So, but that's been coming for a number of years, which is why we're continuing to grow out different programs in both those areas, but we're also really growing our programs in other areas that are more difficult to implement than education in nursing. And so, there's absolutely increased competition in those two areas, but we're doing a good job of holding our own in addition to opening up new programmatic areas, which I think is going to be the most important thing to do from an online standpoint. On ground, it's different, because it's difficult to talk in education on ground. We have a large education program 1,200 students, but that's getting to be a more difficult thing to do and schools are really suffering as a result of it. And we're trying to really help that, but teacher shortage in Arizona is really significant. Nursing is another animal at the undergraduate level because the thing gets bottlenecked with clinical. We could take on more nurses when the hospital have need, but you can't grow because of the bottleneck from a clinical perspective. The area that we expect to really be good for us in the next three years or four years are all the programs in science technology, engineering or math number one because the jobs are really plentiful; number two, because universities don't typically scale those programs and we're trying to put in place the ability to scale those programs.

Jeffrey Marc Silber - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. Appreciate the color. Moving on with separate target. I'd have this question from investor, so I'm just going to post this to you. Would you consider doing any type of sales leaseback of any of your properties and if so, which ones might they be? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. We've looked at it. We've been looking at it for the last couple years. The number one would be this offsite development that we've talked about, and we've been looking at that for over a year. The challenge is just finding cap rate that make sense, the university generate significant cash flow from operations. We've got $150 million line of credit, that's LIBOR plus $175 million. And unfortunately, we just haven't got proposal to off balance sheet any asset at a cap rate below 7%. And so, when you look at that differential between what our own internal borrowing rate is and what those cap rates are, it just, to this point, hasn't made sense. So, we'll keep looking. And hopefully at some point, we can find a deal and if we can, a deal that make sense financially, we will consider it but at this point, we haven't found that.

Jeffrey Marc Silber - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. I appreciate the color. Thanks so much. Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Jeff Meuler with Baird. Your line is open. Jeff P. Meuler - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Yeah. Thanks. Maybe if I could start with a follow-up to what you said to Sara on the property tax legislation getting voted down that would have benefited the university. Brian, how does that impact you're thinking? In your rebuttal letter, I guess, you talk about the vast investments you've made in the area, as well as the freezing of tuition rates. So, how does it potentially impact those two things? And then third, I guess, I don't understand the tax law, but does that have any implications for how you're thinking about sale leasebacks? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Well, the answer to the first question is that, this is a very unique value proposition that we represent we think as an educational institution. Traditionally, in this country, universities are institutions that require you to invest in them, and in the short run, it costs you money, but in the long run, you're educating students that will participate in the economy and cause it to grow. And so people are accustomed to having to make that sacrifice that's why state subsidized universities and those kind of things. This is much different in that. While we're educating students at a growing number at a very low tuition cost, and those students are expected to make really great contributions to the economy. As an institution, we're making a huge contribution. And so, what we're asking the state to do is, look at us from a unique partnership standpoint because if we can come up with the right relationship, we can be a significant economic driver not just as an educational institution, but…

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Trace Urdan with Credit Suisse. Your line is open. Trace Adair Urdan - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Thanks. I'm going to take you back to that question of Sara and Jeff one more time, and ask you in a slightly different way. So, the dynamic between the bachelor's and the graduate programs online, obviously you are focused on growing the graduate programs and pleased about the kind of growing percentage of graduate students in the mix. And I guess my question is, when we look at the shifting that's taking place in your enrollment, how much of that is due to deliberate efforts on your part in terms of how you're gearing your marketing and how you're thinking about leads and where you're making investments, and how much of it is the market itself irrespective of your own activity? Like, could you reverse that if you changed up what you were doing? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yes. We could reverse that very quickly. Trace Adair Urdan - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Okay. Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: It's almost totally due to us engineering it that way. And so, yeah, it's through our marketing, it's through our enrollment practice, it's through our program creation. We're building a lot more graduate programs than we are undergraduate programs. And so, really, it's our own engineering. And so, they put a little pressure on us because graduate students, they graduate at higher percentages and they graduate quicker. And so, you have to be mindful of that as you have continued to build this out, but from a positive standpoint and we have to figure out a way to market is better. It's our…

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Alex Paris with Barrington Research. Your line is open.

Chris Howe - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. Good afternoon. This is Chris Howe, sitting in for Alex Paris. Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Hi.

Chris Howe - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. How should we look at employee expenses for the remainder of the year versus last year in regards to the ramp up hiring? Do you expect it to be greater than it was last year as a percent of revenue to supplement the growth you're seeing on the ground? Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: I think it'll be consistent with the hiring that we had in the last three quarters of last year. But as a percentage of revenue, what you're seeing is margin deterioration second quarter and third quarter, and margin expansion first quarter and fourth quarter, because not only because of the hiring that's happening right now for this next fall, but obviously the hiring that's happened in the last few years to support the growing ground enrollment. When we get our ground enrollment, ground campuses and session, basically all the first quarter, all the fourth quarter and only one month in both the second quarter and third quarters, and so we've got this big infrastructure to support those students and most of those costs are fixed, they're not variable. And so, you're going to see deterioration in margins in the second quarter and third quarter because of the ramp up not only for this next year, but over the last few years.

Chris Howe - Barrington Research Associates, Inc.

Analyst

Thank you. That's helpful. Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: All right. Brian E. Mueller - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: With that, we've reached the end of our first quarter conference call. We appreciate your time and interest in Grand Canyon Education. If you still have questions, please contact either myself, Dan Bachus or Bob Romantic. Thank you for your time.