Operator
Operator
Good morning, and thank you for joining Lincoln Financial Group's second quarter 2016 earnings conference call. At this time, all lines are in listen-only mode. Later, we will announce the opportunity for questions and instructions will be given at that time. Now I would like to turn the conference over to the Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, Chris Giovanni. Please go ahead, sir. Christopher A. Giovanni - Senior Vice President & Head-Investor Relations: Thank you, Vince. Good morning, and welcome to Lincoln Financial's second quarter earnings call. Before I begin, we have an important reminder. Any comments made during the call regarding future expectations, trends and market conditions, including comments about sales and deposits, expenses, income from operations, share repurchases and liquidity and capital resources, are forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations. These risks and uncertainties are described in the Cautionary Statement disclosures in our earnings release issued yesterday and our Reports on Forms 8-K, 10-Q, and 10-K filed with the SEC. We appreciate your participation today and invite you to visit Lincoln's website, www.lincolnfinancial.com, where you can find our press release and statistical supplement, which include a full reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures used in the call, including income from operations and return on equity to the most comparable GAAP measures. So presenting on today's call are Dennis Glass, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Randy Freitag, Chief Financial Officer. After their prepared remarks, we will move to the question-and-answer portion of the call. I would now like to turn the call over to Dennis. Dennis R. Glass - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. As we anticipated, second quarter earnings showed a nice recovery following disappointing first quarter results, as operating earnings per share increased 25% sequentially. Compared to the prior year, earnings per share increased 7% as our diversified mix of businesses and sources of earnings coupled with capital management actions continue to support solid EPS growth. We covered much of our strategy at the June Investor Day, and I would just like to highlight a few points. First, despite persistently low interest rates, we continue to grow EPS and book value per share, as we said we would. Randy will comment on income statement and balance sheet impacts from low rates in his remarks. I would just note that we are raising prices on certain products as we proactively respond to lower interest rates, consistent with prior years, and we see expense management as a key lever to sustain our targeted EPS growth. Importantly, we have a strong track record of controlling expenses and proved that once again this quarter. Next, we have a keen focus on allocating capital towards growth opportunities at attractive returns. That said, where external events are affecting sales levels or returns, we are okay with using the capital intended to support sales growth to buy back our undervalued shares. Lincoln's leading distribution organizations combined with our manufacturing capabilities continue to differentiate us from peers. We are driving sales growth right now in our individual Life Insurance and Group Protection businesses, while innovative product solutions across our Annuity and RPS businesses will help sales growth. I'll expand on these in a minute. Finally, as we have demonstrated for years, we have a quality balance sheet and generate a significant amount of free cash flow. This has allowed us to actively deploy capital to shareholders and it continued in the second quarter as we repurchased $275 million of stock. Now turning to our business segments, starting with Annuities. A 3% decrease in average account values resulted in annuity earnings declining from the prior year. However, the recent recovery in equity markets led to earnings growth of 8% sequentially and positions us well for subsequent periods. Total annuity sales were $2 billion and net outflows $452 million. As you have heard from us as well as other asset management companies, market volatility continues to dampen consumer demand for equity-sensitive products. VA sales are certainly in that camp, though I would note, our sales were largely unchanged compared to the first quarter. While sales are lower than we would like, we are still selling volumes that support our distribution value proposition and are not willing to take aggressive near-term actions to stimulate sales. In the interim, we are comfortable reallocating that capital to share buybacks. We are bringing to market several unique product solutions early next year which capitalize on the growth trends and passive investments and fee-based compensation. These products will meaningfully enhance the value proposition and choice for guaranteed lifetime income, which is an essential solution for retirement savers. Our Annuity business remains a high-quality source of earnings and we have produced a long track record of success that is different from others. As we have said, this success is because we started the business the right way and have maintained our consistent and disciplined product pricing, end-to-end risk management and industry-leading distribution. We hope you walked away with those take-aways at our Investor Day, as I continue to believe this business is under-appreciated. Turning to Life Insurance, we generated strong earnings growth versus the prior year. In terms of sales, total individual life insurance sales in the quarter were 164 million, a 6% increase from the prior-year quarter. Two-thirds of our sales came from products without long-term guarantees and our sales are well diversified, with all products representing between 10% and 30% of total life insurance sales. Executive benefits sales, which can be lumpy, contributed 9 million to total life sales this quarter, while the prior year benefited from one large case. As you know, we have done across-the-board product repricing for the past several years to reflect lower interest rates. As a result, many of our products are meeting targeted returns, even with today's lower interest rates and flatter forward curve. Where we are not achieving acceptable returns, we will reprice. Bottom line, we are committed to maintaining our risk management and product pricing discipline to get appropriate returns on capital. When combined with actions focused on in-force block profitability, we continue to be optimistic about our ability to grow our Life Insurance business. Turning to Group Protection, we are well on our way to restoring the profitability and long-term growth potential of our Group business. Our non-medical loss ratio continues to improve as we benefit from our repricing efforts and enhancements to claims management functions. Sales momentum continues, as sales increased 15%. This marks another quarter of sales growth as the market disruption from our aggressive renewal repricing strategy has clearly subsided. In addition, as our renewal price increases moderate, we are beginning to see improvement in our renewal persistency. We expect premiums to stabilize in the back half of the year, and premium growth to reemerge in 2017. I'm pleased to see the encouraging signs of growth while we continue to sustain our pricing and risk management discipline. We have the right strategy, people and processes in place and we are executing extremely well. As we have noted recently, top-line growth will be critically important to drive the next leg of our margin improvement story. I am confident this will be achieved, providing a nice tailwind to earnings and further diversifying Lincoln's sources of earnings mix. In Retirement Plan Services, earnings were consistent with both the prior year and the prior quarter and in line with expectations. Second quarter deposits of $1.7 billion were down 11% from a year ago, driven by a decline in mid-large market first year sales due to the timing of implementations. We have a strong pipeline and already committed new business scheduled for the second half of the year. This growth can be directly attributed to our focused strategy and investments in our digital and mobile customer experience, which is resonating in the marketplace. In the small market, first-year sales were up 24% year-over-year, a result of distribution expansion and increased wholesaler productivity. Looking ahead, we expect this momentum to continue, aided by the recent launch of our enhanced small-market Director product. Recurring deposits were also up 3% year-over-year, evidence that our high-touch model continues to differentiate us and drive higher contributions and participation rates. Our overall sales momentum leads us to remain confident that 2016's net flows will exceed 2015 levels. Shifting to investment results. Disciplined ALM and risk management continue to drive our investment strategy. We put new money to work in the second quarter at an average yield of 3.8%, which was down 20 basis points from the first quarter. The decrease in new money rates was primarily due to a drop in Treasury rates as we invested at 205 basis points over the average ten-year treasury, consistent with recent periods. The decline in interest rates also increased our net unrealized gain to 8.4 billion pre-tax, up from 5.5 billion in the first quarter. It is also worth noting that our energy portfolio, which has been an area of investor focus this year, swung to a net unrealized gain in the second quarter with values increasing by $600 million from the first quarter. Downgrades have also slowed and, as a result, our below investment-grade exposure decreased to 5.5%, a 10 basis point improvement from the first quarter. Lastly, the annualized return on our alternative investments was nearly 6% in the second quarter, a significant improvement from the first quarter, however, still below our long-term average and targeted return of 10%. Better results from both our private equity investments and hedge funds helped drive the sequential improvement. We expect further earnings growth over time as we achieve our targeted return, modestly increase our exposure to alternatives and shift the mix towards private equity. Turning to distribution which, as many of you recognize, truly differentiates Lincoln. Our wholesale, retail and worksite distribution organizations have been instrumental in driving our strategies and delivering on our consistent market presence. The strength and stability of over 90,000 active producers creates opportunities and enables our ability to target the faster-growing segments. During the quarter, we saw strong producer growth across a number of our products, including MoneyGuard, fixed annuity, term, and RPS. And more advisors are selling multiple products, underscoring the power of our distribution franchise in combination with a diverse product portfolio. We are executing on our diversification strategy. At an enterprise level, no one product accounted for more than 14% of sales during the quarter and non-long term guarantee sales were 73% of our total sales, up from 69% a year ago. As manufacturing and distribution collaborate on existing new product innovations, I am confident that Lincoln will continue to differentiate itself in the marketplace. On to DOL. There's not much new to discuss since our Investment Day, but it is important to reemphasize that our distribution partners are continuing to work towards using the BIC to serve retirement savers and offer the choice of commissions or fees, whichever is in the client's best interest. This is leading to greater interest in our fee-based annuity product offering by distribution partners and advisors. At Lincoln, we continue to take a leadership role in working with the DOL and our distribution partners to be sure we are prepared for when the first part of the rule goes live in April 2017. Lastly, as you recently saw, Mark Konen announced his decision to retire. I want to personally thank Mark for his partnership and leadership over the years and wish him the best in retirement. He has recruited a very strong management team, and by having Mark stay on board through the end of February 2017, I am confident there will be a smooth transition. So in closing, I'm pleased that our earnings returned to levels you have been accustomed to seeing Lincoln produce. While clearly there are economic and regulatory issues, let me reiterate that I remain confident in our ability to generate top and bottom-line growth and actively deploy capital. I will now turn the call over to Randy. Randal J. Freitag - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Thank you, Dennis. Last night, we reported income from operations of 373 million, or $1.56 per share for the second quarter, a 7% increase from the prior year. Importantly, most items that negatively impacted our first quarter results, including accelerated amortization of DAC and group, adverse mortality in individual life and weak fee-based earnings, returned to expected levels. It is also worth noting that while alternative investment income improved significantly from the first quarter, returns were still below our expected results by roughly 7 million, or $0.03 per share, with 5 million of the shortfall hitting the life business. As an offset, expenses were favorable by a similar amount in the quarter, primarily in other operations. Now, shifting to key performance metrics. Book value per share, excluding AOCI, now stands at $54.67, as we continue to consistently compound book value in the high-single digit range. Operating ROE remains strong at 11.7%, unchanged from the prior year. Expense discipline, beyond some of the favorability I noted upfront, resulted in our expense ratio declining by 50 basis points. This reflects our ability to effectively manage G&A in a period of slower revenue growth. We expect expenses to continue to be a good story. Net flows contributed $0.5 billion to account values, and with end-of-period account values exceeding the quarterly average, we enter the third quarter with a modest tailwind. Finally, our balance sheet strength and capital generation enabled us to repurchase 275 million of stock this quarter, retiring 2.6% of our shares outstanding, the most since the fourth quarter of 2011. Net income results for the quarter included 47 million of realized losses related to investments, while our variable annuity hedge program was effective with minimal breakage in what was a volatile quarter for the capital markets. Before shifting to segment highlights, I would like to comment on the current interest rate environment. The punchline is that we remain well positioned, even as rates and the forward curve have moved lower. Let's start by talking about the statutory balance sheet because that is what comes up most with investors. Recall at our June Investor Day we noted we had sufficiency in our overall cash flow testing, including stressing the 10-year treasury down to 50 basis points forever. The one area we pointed to where there could be some temporary reserve strengthening is around certain secondary guarantee universal life subtests. For instance, if the ten-year treasury stayed at 1%, that could require up to $350 million, or 20 percentage points of RBC, a very manageable impact when you think about Lincoln having $8.7 billion of statutory capital and an RBC ratio of 500% at the end of the second quarter. Now thinking about the other two areas that low rates impact life insurers, that being new business and spread compression, first on the impact on new business returns. Most of our products continue to achieve our targeted returns. But as Dennis noted, we will make changes where necessary to achieve acceptable returns. Next on spread compression, which has been with us for a while now. We showed at Investor Day that spread compression is abating, even if we assumed new money rates stayed at first quarter levels of 4%. We estimated this would depress EPS growth by 2% to 3%, versus 4% to 5% in prior years, but still enable us to achieve our targeted EPS growth rate of 8% to 10%. Given the decline in interest rates since our June Investor Day, we estimate that we are likely to be at or slightly above the top end of this 2% to 3% range, but expect that other levers, such as capital and expense management, can offset this impact. So bottom line, low rates are manageable and we are hopeful that our peers begin to provide comparable disclosures so you all can better compare companies, as we believe views on Lincoln are misaligned. Now turning to segment results and starting with Annuities. Reporting earnings for the quarter were $235 million compared to $255 million in the prior-year quarter. Lower fee income from a 3% decline in average account values is the primary driver of the year-over-year decline. Operating revenues declined 1% from the second quarter of 2015. Over the trailing 12 months, net flows totaled nearly $0.5 billion, however, this organic growth was more than offset by negative market performance. Return metrics continue to be strong, as ROE came in at 21%, consistent with our long-term average, while return on assets decreased 4 basis points versus the prior year, but did increase 3 basis points from the first quarter, stands at 77 basis points. Finally, as I noted up front, our variable annuity hedge program was effective in an extremely volatile quarter, particularly at the end of June, which further demonstrates the high quality of our Annuity business. In Retirement Plan Services, we reported earnings of $31 million, up $1 million from the prior-year quarter. Second quarter revenue was flat year-over-year, as was average account balances and return on assets. Net flows were modestly positive in the quarter, nonetheless, our growth outlook remains positive for the second half of the year, which positions us well to increase account values. Spreads excluding variable investment income compressed 9 basis points versus the prior-year quarter, near the low end of our expectation. While retirement earnings will fight the headwinds of low interest rates, continued growth in net flows positions us well for long-term earnings growth. Turning to our Life Insurance segment. Earnings of $120 million increased 14% from last year, as mortality returns to normal levels following elevated severity in the prior-year quarter. As I noted up front, alternative investment income was $5 million below our expected results for the Life business. A full recovery in alternative income would have put our Life earnings right in line with the $125 million quarterly run rate I mentioned on last quarter's conference call. Spreads, excluding variable investment income, compressed 5 basis points versus the prior year, at the low end of our expectation. Quickly on Life earnings drivers. Average account values increased 3%, with total in-force face amount up 4%, consistent with recent performance in our mid-single digit organic growth expectations. So second quarter results saw mortality recover from the prior year and typical first quarter seasonality. While earnings are facing some spread compression, drivers continue to support long-term earnings growth. Group Protection earnings of 15 million were below the 19 million reported in the prior-year quarter, but well above the 5 million reported in the first quarter, as DAC amortization returned to more normal levels, as expected. The decline in earnings versus the prior year is due to lower premiums and investment income. Loss ratios continue to benefit from our pricing and claims management actions. Our non-medical loss ratio improved to 72.5% this quarter from 73.6% in prior-year quarter. The year-over-year improvement was driven by favorable loss ratios in all product lines: life, disability and dental. Non-medical earned premiums declined by 11% year-over-year. Lower renewal persistency in sales owing to our repricing initiatives have clearly provided a headwind to growth. However, as Dennis mentioned, we expect premium growth to reemerge next year, given positive leading indicators. Notably, sales increased 15% in the second quarter, marking our second straight quarter of sales growth, while renewal persistency increased to 76%, a nearly 20-percentage point improvement from the first quarter. As a result, we are confident top-line growth will provide the next lever for margin improvement. Before moving to Q&A, let me comment on a few other items of note. Our capital position remains very strong and our business model continues to generate capital, allowing us to allocate a significant amount of capital to shareholders. This quarter we repurchased $275 million of Lincoln shares as we took advantage of our strong balance sheet and shares trading well below book value. We expect to remain active allocators of capital. As I briefly noted up front, statutory surplus stands at 8.7 billion and our RBC at ratio will end the quarter at approximately 500%, both very strong numbers and up from the first quarter, due to the reinsurance transaction we executed in April. Holding company cash ended the quarter above our target of $500 million. So to conclude, we saw our earnings power recover to more normal levels following depressed first quarter results, which lead to 7% EPS growth compared to the prior year. Lower for longer interest rates are manageable, even as the spot rate and the forward curve have moved lower. We are effectively managing G&A in a period of slower revenue growth to drive margin improvement and we remain disciplined yet opportunistic around share buybacks. And given our balance sheet strength, we expect to remain very active. With that, let me turn the call back over to Chris. Christopher A. Giovanni - Senior Vice President & Head-Investor Relations: Thank you, Dennis and Randy. We now have approximately 30 minutes for Q&A. As a reminder, we ask you to please limit yourself to one question and only one follow-up, then re-queue for additional questions. With that, let me turn it over to Vince to start Q&A.