Brian Harris
Analyst · JP Morgan. Please go ahead
Sure. Thank you for asking. This is Brian. I think that if there is a couple of things that happened. First of all, obviously as a whole sector got checked pretty hard when the original COVID shock took place in the middle of March, we got caught up in a discussion about securities and leverage at that point that frankly we never should have been in. I don't know why the market had that discussion about us in any event, I think that we were taken down a little harder than a lot of our competitors in the set. So when you're trading at a deep discount to to book value, like we are at this point, we decided that we would put it back seat to earnings and we would worry more about liquidity because that seem to be what one of the concern was and frankly with the pandemic going on, that's a playbook we haven't really figured out in our careers in the past. So it helped to with interest rates falling precipitously, it didn't make any sense to go out and do a whole lot of lending at very low rates anyway. So I think it's a several step process. The first was to stabilize our bond portfolio. And I mean, the corporate bond portfolio, at the bonds that we have outstanding, which fell in some cases down to $0.60 on the dollar back in March or April. Those we acquired $175 million worth of those, I would point out that's not something that somebody would do, if they were having a liquidity problem because those bonds are not due for quite a while and they also represented tremendous of value, especially versus anything else we could have been investing in. So we feel like we stabilize the the price of those bonds, although we still trail some of our competitors and we're a little surprised by that, but that's probably just requires more attention and marketing from us. We'll continue to buy those bonds if they do show any form of weakening in price because there are first offering that comes due comes --due in I think it's September of 2021. So, we have to buy them anyway and it's got a pretty high rate. So we will probably look to retire those, as I said, either in the first half or else will systematically just purchased in the open market. I think as far as the second step goes it we are at that point. I don't know at some point when your concern might be about cred as an investor and it as you see 25% of the portfolio pay off at par on time, and do you see levels of cash rising approaching 125% of the market cap of the company. You could always wonder they over leveraged. I think if you look at our leverage as a company we're under leveraged, actually. We've got an enormous amount of cash, we can pay off our most of our debts and we've had a very active usage of unsecured corporate debt, which I think was a very, it was very fortuitous and showed a lot of foresight into a situation like this because those bonds are not due and the last one we did was in January of 2020. And those bonds are not due until 2027. So I think the first step with demands the second step is liquidity and and you did see us start to buy some of our stock back in the last quarter and I think the third step will be earnings and I think earnings is something that is a relatively easy thing to turn on, you have to be a little bit careful because of the credit environment we're in, which is uncertain. That doesn't mean bad. It just means uncertain. And I think that we will begin to start making loans probably after this election. We've already send some loan quotes out and we close some loans, but everybody thought, Europe was a great idea and the textbook case of how to handle a pandemic about three months ago. Maybe that was too soon. So I think our patience has been rewarded but not overly worried about earnings right now, obviously you have to worry about earnings eventually. But I think we've taken all the right steps and now approaching almost a billion dollars in cash. Clearly, we can get involved in a lot of situations, including our own stock buying our bonds back or retiring them and or making loans into any form of distress or regular way financings. I think we all have to be very careful, of how our banks feel about financing those loans. We have really lowered our repo debt as Pamela detailed, I think our loan repo debt is in the low $200 millions, and I think if we ever needed to call upon additional cash reserves, we could actually sell the securities portfolio and I think that portfolio, if we took away it be debt associated with the securities portfolio. I think we're levered, if you remove that in cash were like 1.3 times. So, it is not a leverage conversation, and so I think that the market has thought it was leverage conversation, that's why the deep discount to book value. If the market continues to think of it as a leverage conversation, then we will step in and take advantage of that opportunity as opposed to observing it. So, and I think, the earnings should come, I don't think that's going to be difficult. We certainly know how to lend money. We know how to invest in real estate. We know how to buy and sell securities or getting to distress. So, but right now I think anything we would feel comfortable lending on given the environment we're in is the 4% to 4.5% rate into an environment where inflation is likely to tick higher, and the reason the overall rate is so low is because interest rates are low for precisely the wrong reason. You wouldn't want to be lending, a lot of money into that environment, given the uncertainty, because the Fed is trying to quell fears right now with rates being so low. So it's a long-winded example but it's a 3-step process, and as I said it's bonds first, now it's book value then its earnings. So, hopefully that answered it.