Brian Harris
Analyst · Tim Hayes with B. Riley FBR. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Marc. As you've heard today, the second quarter was a rather noisy one with many transactions that rarely take place in our normal course of business but these are unusual times to say the least. And while we've managed through numerous recessions, we certainly haven't seen one quite like this. There are many factors to consider in managing risk as we entered the second half of 2020. While we all saw the massive negative consequences that resulted from the sudden shutdown of the U.S. economy, the initial shocks to the economy were felt in late March and early April, and the initial responses from the various governmental agencies to counter those shocks, were also seen over the last couple of months. We now have to deal with the longer-term impacts of the recession on our economy while trying to judge the longer-term effects of many things that are just being witnessed for the very first time. Items to consider include the November election, the opening or cancellation of schools in a month, the persistent continuation of the lowest interest rates ever seen, unprecedented Fed and Treasury intervention, the loss of 33 million jobs in just two months, a second wave of infection and the rollback of some business openings as a result, and finally, when the research and science will catch up with this awful virus. Let's face it, we will not return to what most of us consider normal until we can sit down next to a stranger without concern for our health and wellbeing. No one knows how deep the recession will be, or how long it will last but at Ladder, we're assuming we're going to deal with a rather severe recession that will last for about a year and that's assuming some sort of vaccine or treatment of the virus can be found by then. As conditions change in real time, we will adjust our risk management accordingly. Under almost any recessionary scenario, the short-term game plan is the same lower leverage and raise liquidity profile. We have effectively been managing this downturn since November of 2019 when we extended the term of our $266 million unsecured revolver to five years and followed up with the issuance of a seven-year unsecured corporate bond on January 30, 2020, just six weeks before the markets were thrust into turmoil in mid-March. Our experience with past recessions has taught us that a little extra caution is warranted at the onset of any downturn. Because of this liability management, when market volatility spiked as the first quarter ended, we had ready access to over $1 billion of unrestricted cash, providing us with the necessary flexibility we used to further improve our balance sheet for the terrible downturn that was beginning in March. When the pandemic hit markets in the middle of March, we identified five ways we could further enhanced our liquidity profile. First, we look to our regularly scheduled mortgage payoff, and in the second quarter, we took $331 million of loan payoff. Second, we sold $172 million a principal amount of performing loans. This is no small feat, considering our offices were closed, and the properties could not be accessed, but yet we were successful. After financing and costs associated with the sales, these two items added $300 million in cash to our balance sheet. Third, we sold $439 million, a principal amount of securities at a loss of $15.4 million, which was more than offset by our purchase and retirement of $139 million of Ladder's corporate bonds at a gain of $17.5 million after costs. Our sales of securities also allowed us to pay down securities repo financing in the quarter by $276 million. The fourth action we took was to issue a private CLO with $481 million of first mortgage loans as collateral, a significant portion of which were unencumbered adding to our growing pile of liquidity. The fifth and last action we took was to enter into a fully funded $206.5 million non-recourse non-mark-to-market credit facility with Coke Real Estate Investments. Successfully raising that much cash in what may have been the most illiquid quarter I've ever seen was truly a statement as to how versatile our liability management allows us to be in a very short period of time. Without reciting all of the debt paid down that followed net-net, we paid off $727 million of debt in the quarter, while simultaneously raising our unrestricted cash on hand to $826 million at the end of the quarter. I'm happy to report that we continue to receive scheduled payoffs as the third quarter began, and monthly mortgage payments are at 98% collections. I'll now just briefly touch on our short maturity securities portfolio which has rebounded in price as expected and today our leverage on that book of business is just 64% of par, down from 79% at the end of March. What is oftentimes overlooked by the market is how short the securities are in duration they just don't take a lot of price action in normal markets. Perhaps a live example will help. At the end of the first quarter, our single largest holding of a CUSIP was loan core 2018-CREA for $106 million, which we owned at par. This is a AAA rated class in a managed CLO that was becoming a static pool in June of 2020 when it's reinvestment period ended. In June, we felt three separate $5 million pieces of this bond at an average price of 99. And then after receiving pay downs in July to our most senior class of $9.6 million at 100 cents on a dollar, our exposure dropped from $106 million to where it is today at $81 million. True, we took a loss of $150,000, but over a 30-day period, we received $24.45 million in proceeds from the disposition of $24.6 million of our most concentrated position. We expect this position to pay off at par within the next 12 months. Well, this is only one line item, it is our largest, and hopefully this clears up some of the market concerns that we and our stakeholders had to deal with in late March and early April. I would add that since we last spoke on May 5, we have not received a single pricing related margin call on any of our security holdings as our portfolio has appreciated quarter-over-quarter. So when do we go on offense? That's the question we get a lot and understandably so, given we're holding an impressive $826 million in cash at the end of the second quarter and that cash isn't doing a lot for our earnings these days. The answer is we believe soon, but we need to be cautious. We have to assess the risks out there and that if judged correctly should produce extraordinary opportunities in the next year or two. Much of the low hanging fruit has been taken off the market over the last few months in the form of very oversold securities that were made available by forced sellers. The next opportunities will come when borrowers exhaust the patients of their lenders and deplete their capital reserves. We don't know how far prices will fall for some property types, but we have to figure out some - how some of these items play off each other in this new central bank driven market. We will get the answer on school opening soon, and the election in November will soon be here. And we may even see science make further advances in treating this virus, but let's not overlook the loss of 33 million jobs this year. Hundreds of millions of dollars are being raised by new funds to take advantage of the highly touted opportunities in commercial real estate. We too have a lot of liquidity and plan to take advantage of those opportunities if they do and factorize. But things could worse too. And until we have more visibility into where the economy will shake out in the long-term, we'll bite our time, strengthen our balance sheet and stay ready for the green light to go on for new deployment of capital in large size. We expect some lending to resume shortly, mostly in the conduit to start, but I think we'll have a better idea where to invest after September when schools are open or closed and the virus is either under control or it's not. The election in November will give us much guidance also as to how to approach real estate investments. A lot of currency has been printed around the world recently, and rates are near or below zero in many cases, both hit a record price recently. That all adds up to likely inflation in a few years. And if that's the case, it will be best to own hard assets like real estate and not long dated mortgages with low rates. Let's move now to Q&A and thanks for listening today.