Andy Inglis
Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question
Thanks, Jamie and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start the call by reinforcing the key characteristics that define Kosmos's unique investment proposition. They are consistent with the themes we outlined at our Capital Markets Day in February. First, Kosmos's business model is highly cash generative. In the second quarter, we delivered approximately $136 million of free cash flow and are on track to deliver over $200 million in 2019 at current prices. Our third year in a row of positive free cash flow. For contacts in 2019, this represents a free cash flow yield of around 10%, which is very competitive compared to other E&P companies and indeed other sectors. Second our infrastructure led exploration or ILX program is working. The Gladden Deep well brought the first success in the second quarter. And through the rest of the year, we expect to drill four ILX wells in the GOM and EG targeting a total net resource around 125 million barrels oil equivalent. Third, we continue to add value to our Mauritania Senegal asset base. Our recent appraisal drilling further expanded the resource at Tortue and we continue to make good progress with the sell-down of our position to around 10%. The scale and quality of the assets has led to significant industry interest and the process remains on track. Fourth, creating transformational value through basin opening exploration remains a key part of our business. We have a deep diverse portfolio of oil and gas opportunities, which we will continue to mature high-grade and test. Later this year, we'll drill the Orca well in Mauritania, and expect to drill two basin-opening tests per year from 2020 onwards. And finally, our conservative approach to managing the balance sheet has not changed. In April, we opportunistically refinanced our bonds that were due in 2021, pushing out the maturity until 2026. Balance sheet strength continues to be a strategic asset of Kosmos. Turning to slide 3, I'd now like to discuss the second quarter. Kosmos had record production during the quarter, with our entitlement share averaging approximately 71,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. In Ghana, second quarter gross production averaged 97,000 barrels of oil per day at Jubilee and 59,000 at TEN resulting in the plant two cargos from Jubilee and one from TEN. At Jubilee, the partnership is planning to accelerate the gas enhancement projects into the fourth quarter of this year. Implementation of these enhancements should increase gas handling capacity to above 180 million standard cubic feet per day, thereby allowing oil production to increase in the fourth quarter and into 2020. At TEN, as the operator previously reported completion problems were experienced at the EN-14 well, due to mechanical issues resulting in the well not being completed. In addition, there is the potential for two other TEN wells to be deferred. These mechanical issues and the potential deferral of TEN drilling has reduced our full-year expectations for the field and we now expect to lift four cargoes from TEN, down from the previous expectation of five. As a result, we now expect production for 2019 at the corporate level to be the low end of our guidance range. In the Gulf of Mexico, our assets continue to exceed expectations, beating the high-end of our guidance range for the second quarter in a row. The 26,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day net average daily production in the second quarter was a record for the GOM business unit, demonstrating the growth in the business since acquiring the EG last year. The quarter-on-quarter increase was primarily driven by increased production at Odd Job where we were able to take advantage of spare capacity aboard Delta House and the Tornado field coming back online after its planned drydock in 1Q. Performance in Equatorial Guinea during the quarter was in line with expectations. Our Electrical Submersible Pump or ESP program is ongoing with two further ESP installations this quarter. In addition, the stimulation program Okume has recently begun and the facilities upgrade program is currently under way to enhance the Okume facilities in support of the 2020 and 2021 ESP program. These are low cost rapid payback projects and the 2019 ESP program has delivered cash payback in excess of 120% of invested capital in just seven months. This strong production performance translated into approximately $136 million of free cash flow during the quarter. We remain on track to exceed our $200 million free cash flow forecast at current prices for the full year. And finally, we paid $0.045 dividend during the quarter and announced our third quarter dividend today payable in late September. At $0.18 for the year, this equates to a yield of around 3% at today's share price. Turning to slide 4. As I mentioned in my opening remarks, our ILX program is off to a great start. And we expect first oil from Gladden Deep around six months from discovery. Our inventory of high-quality prospects in the GOM was broadened through our participation in the March lease sale. During the same quarter, Kosmos was awarded all nine leases where we were apparent high bidder. With these new awards, we now are approximately 80 blocks in total with over 30 prospects equivalent more than five years of future drilling activity. In the second half, we have an active ILX drilling program in the GOM and plan to drill three of these prospects, which I'll talk about in a minute. In Equatorial Guinea, we're planning to drill our first well target in the G-13 prospect. We have now contracted the rig to drill this well which is expected to spud late in the third quarter. In Mauritania and Senegal, phase one of the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project remains on track following FID in December. Pre-FEED work on phases two and three is ongoing and recent drilling results have further expanded our significant resource base at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim. The sell-down process we announced in February is progressing well. As world class resource base has garnered significant industry interest we expect to announce a transaction by year end. Turning to slide 5. This slide shows our infrastructure-led exploration program in action. Gladden Deep may be the smallest of our 2019 prospects, but it's still meaningful and demonstrates the speed to first production and cash flow contribution of our growing ILX portfolio. We expect to deliver incremental net production to Kosmos of approximately 1,100 barrels oil equivalent per day around six months from discovery. The economics of the well are very attractive. At $60 Brent, and with a $10.50 per barrel F&D cost and $7.30 per barrel lifting cost, the well has a full cycle -- full cycle IRR of around 70% with payback expected in around 14 months from first oil. Opportunity like Gladden Deep are precisely why we enter the Gulf of Mexico and we look forward to more success as we ramp up activity in the second half. Slide 6 shows this activity in more detail. We plan to spud Moneypenny and Resolution in October followed by Oldfield in November. In total these three wells will tax approximately 100 million barrels of net oil resource, greater than our current 80 million barrel oil equivalent 2P reserve base in the GOM. So success at any of these wells would be meaningful. Interestingly in -- on oilfield specifically, we're in the process of finalizing cross assignment of our interest with Hess on the adjacent block with Kosmos taking a 40% interest in the two blocks and Hess 60%. As a result of new seismic data that Hess has processed in the area, we now believe that there could be significant upside to the 30 million barrel oil equivalent, we initially talked about. Oilfield is another example of Kosmos's strong license to operate within the Gulf of Mexico, often with much larger players like Hess and BP. With Oldfield, we plan to operate the prospect on behalf of Hess during exploration and the initial development phase. One important point to note, each of these three prospects is located in their existing infrastructure which has available capacity. If successful the discoveries can be brought online quickly. The wells have an average F&D cost of around $12 per barrel and an average lifting cost of around $6 per barrel. And with oil prices of only $60 per barrel Brent generate average full cycle IRRs of around 50%. There is a lot of oil yet to be found in the deepwater GOM, an abundance of underutilized infrastructure. As I've said in previous presentations, I don't believe there's ever been a better time to be active in the GOM. We plan to take advantage of this attractive backdrop and a growing opportunity set by drilling 4 to 5 ILX wells a year, targeting 65 million to 100 million barrels oil equivalent of unrisked net resource each year. Turning Slide 7 I'd like to discuss another ILX opportunity this time in the G-13 area in Equatorial Guinea. This is a unique opportunity around a legacy discovery. The G-13 field includes four previously drilled wells three of which were successful. The wells drilled today have improved up around 25 million barrels of oil equivalent with a 500 meter oil column. Today, we have a calibrated well database and in 2018 we acquired a new seismic survey. The previous wells were drilled up in 1999 vintage seismic survey. A new survey has given us a much clearer image of the depositional system that delivered reservoir sand into the prospect area. This better resolution has enhanced our understanding of the trap model. The new information is being key in identifying that the previous wells were drilled on what we now believe to be the edge of the main reservoir channel, providing considerable upside to the discovery. This together with the stratigraphic element increases the resource potential to around 200 million barrels gross for the field. The first well will test around 50 million barrels gross and expected to spud in the third quarter. Slide 8 shows the significant progress we continue to make in Mauritania and Senegal. With our partners, we're building a major LNG business across the basin with 50 Tcf to 100 Tcf of gas initially in place, we believe we have enough gas to underpin three separate 10 million ton per annum LNG hubs. The innovative development scheme, we're using at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim can be replicated to the other two hubs: BirAllah and the Yakaar-Teranga using a design once build many approach. Our exploration and appraisal activities this year are therefore focused on first expanding our resource base at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim which we've done with a successful GTA-1 appraisal well. Second, defining the development area, securing a second LNG at Yakaar in Senegal where an appraisal well is planned, but next month after the rig completing BOP and rise and maintenance. And third underpinning the next LNG hub in Mauritania, BirAllah we -- which we hope to do with the Orca well, which we expect to spud in October. And as I said in my opening remarks, the sell-down process we announced in February is progressing well and we expected to announce a transaction by year end. Turning to slide nine, I'd like to highlight the substantial change in our shareholder base over the last two years, a shift that mirrors the rapid evolution of our business over the same period. In June, Blackstone sold their remaining position in Kosmos. Blackstone was one of two founding shareholders and post their exit and that of Warburg Pincus earlier this year, we now have almost a 100% free flows and any private equity shareholding overhang is all but gone. Today we have a more diverse broader set of public equity investors. With that enhanced float, U.S. assets and the U.S. domicile, we believe Kosmos should soon be eligible for more meaningful index inclusion with the benefits that will bring to our shareholder base. We've included the guidance for the third quarter and full year in an appendix to the presentation and we encourage you to look at that when modeling the business for the rest of the year. So turning to the final slide. In summary, 2Q was a record quarter for Kosmos, with production and EBITDAX both over 50% higher compared to the same quarter last year. This significant growth over the last 12 months has been done with only a modest increase in leverage, perhaps most importantly for our shareholders with minimal dilution. With the company's strong cash generation, we expect leverage to move toward our target range of 1 times to 1.5 times. And we look forward to a very second -- a very busy second half that is full of exciting catalysts, many of which could be transformational for the company. Thank you. And I now like to turn the call over to the operator to open the session for questions.