Andrew Inglis
Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question
Thanks, Jamie and good morning, everyone. Beginning with Slide 2. Before I talk about the highlights for the quarter, I'd like to take a moment to remind you of the key messages we delivered at our Capital Markets Day in February. First, our business model generates significant cash. With strong margins across our portfolio and a disciplined capital program, we expect to generate approximately $1 billion of free cash flow over the next three years at $60 per barrel Brent. This excludes any proceeds from our planned sell down in Mauritania and Senegal, which will provide significant upside. Over the same period, we expect to grow production at a CAGR of 8% to 10%. Second, we have a deep inventory of infrastructure-led exploration or ILX opportunities that we expect to drive near-term growth. Our 2019 four-well ILX program in the Gulf of Mexico has begun, and later this year we expect to drill our first ILX prospects in Equatorial Guinea. Third, we have a world-scale gas resource in Mauritania and Senegal with 50 to 100 Tcf gross of gas in place in the basin. Our basin open discovery at Tortue reached final investment decision in December, which created a value inflection point. At the Capital Markets Day, we announced our intention to sell down our interest in the basin from around 30% to 10%, and we've been very pleased with the level of industry interest. Fourth, creating asymmetric value through basin opening exploration remains at the heart of our business model. We have a deep diverse portfolio of opportunities, which will continue to mature high grade and test. In 2019, we're drilling one-well Orca and expect to drill two basin opening tests per year from 2020 onwards. Overall, our 2019 exploration program includes six wells targeting net prospective resources of approximately 500 million barrels oil equivalent, an amount roughly equal to our year-end 2018-2P reserves. And finally, our approach to prudent balance sheet management has not changed. Our balance sheet strength gives us the financial flexibility to properly manage the business to create shareholder value and to invest in high return projects irrespective of short and medium-term commodity price cycles. Turning to Slide 3. I'll now provide an update on the progress we've made against that agenda. In the first quarter, we delivered around 59,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day of production which is above the midpoints of 58,000 to 60,000 guidance we gave in February, and we remain on-track to achieve our guidance for the full year, which Tom will talk about later in the presentation. In Ghana, Jubilee is currently producing around 100,000 barrels of oil per day. The gas reliability issues I mentioned at our Capital Markets Day have been addressed by the operator with a reliability of the system enhanced with the spare high-pressure compressor now available. However, oil production rates remain constrained by gas handling. We continue to present opportunities to the operator to increase the gas handling capacity and we are hopeful that we'll implement these enhancements, thereby enabling Jubilee oil throughput to reach the nameplate FPSO capacity of 120,000 barrels of oil per day. At TEN, production increased when the EN-10 well was brought online and the field is currently producing around 70,000 barrels of oil per day. We expect to reach the facility capacity of 80,000 barrels of oil per day when a further producer is brought on-stream around the middle of the year. In the Gulf of Mexico, the routine dry dock work on the Helix Producer was successfully completed on-time, increasing production from the GOM once the vessel was bought back online. Production levels were further increased when the Tornado-3 well was brought online adding around 9,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day gross. In Equatorial Guinea, our ASP program is on-track adding around 2,500 barrels of oil per day gross to offset decline. We expect to complete two more ASP conversions around the middle of the year. Shifting to cash generation; we remain on-track to deliver significant amount of free cash flow in 2019. At $60 per barrel Brent, we expect to generate approximately $200 million of free cash flow before dividends, increasing to around $350 million at $70 per barrel Brent. First quarter CapEx was $110 million, and we remain on-track to spend within our full year 2019 CapEx guidance range of $425 million to $475 million. At current prices, the year-end forecast net leverage will be around 1.4 times, within our target range without any contribution from the Mauritania-Senegal sell down. Our strong free cash flow generation supports shareholder returns, and in the first quarter the Company paid it's first quarterly dividend of approximately $0.045 which equates to $0.18 per share for the full year. Turning to Slide 4; staying on highlights for the quarter, we recently started our infrastructure-led exploration program with Gladden Deep. The well was spud [ph] in March targeting a deeper horizon below the existing Gladden discovery with the well results expected later this month. Gladden Deep is the first of four wells in the Gulf of Mexico this year which together target around 100 million barrels net to Kosmos. In late March, we participate in Lease Sale 252 where the apparent high bidder on 9 of the 10 blocks upon which we bid, more on that later. In Equatorial Guinea, we're continuing to mature our G-13 prospect targeting 25 million to 200 million barrels oil equivalent potential. We've secured a rig option for drilling and expect to spud the well late in the third quarter. In Mauritania and Senegal, momentum continues from the FID of Tortue in December. Tortue Phase 1 is on-track, all contracts are now awarded, construction work has commenced on the FPSO and Keppel has received final approval from Golar to commence construction of the Gimi FLNG vessel. Furthermore, BP recently awarded the pre-FEED work on Tortue Phases II and III to KBR, demonstrating progress in those subsequent phases which should reach FID next year. Regarding our previously announced plans to sell down our interest in Mauritania and Senegal to around 10% from our current 30%, we received considerable industry interest from around 15 large highly credible companies; so you see the significant strategic value in gas assets and the size and quality of the resource. The process has been formally launched, the data rooms open, and we would expect formal bids by the end of the summer. Basin-Opening Exploration remains central to our strategy at Kosmos. We plan to drill the Orca well offshore Mauritania in 3Q, which if successful would prove up another 10 million ton per annum LNG hub in Southern Mauritania. During the quarter, we entered Congo Brazzaville signing a PSC on the Marine XXI block, and we deepened our position in Equatorial Guinea by acquiring the remainder Ophir's interest in the EG-24 block. Lastly, as I've said before, our approach to manage the balance sheet has not changed in the first quarter, we pushed our debt maturities and increased our borrowing costs -- and decreased our borrowing costs by refinancing the notes that were due in 2021 with a new lower coupon notes due 2026. Moving on to Slide 5; the Gulf of Mexico is the most recent addition to the Kosmos portfolio. So I'd like to provide some more color on that business unit, where there has been significant amount of activity so far in 2019. We entered the basin in September, and our expectations at the time of the transaction have been exceeded. The Gulf of Mexico is one of the world's most prolific oil and gas basins; and despite it's maturity, new technology and new ideas continue to yield new discoveries and more resource under development. There is a lot of oil yet to be discovered in the basin and the high density of underutilized infrastructure makes GOMs economics attractive. This is the right basin to broaden Kosmos's deepwater portfolio, and now is the right time; the competitive landscape has never been better and service costs are attractive. With few companies focused on the basin and fewer possessing the capabilities to explore that, Kosmos is well positioned to become a leading independent in the Gulf of Mexico. Turning to Slide 6; I'd like to focus on the recent Gulf of Mexico lease sale. The semi-annual lease sales are a low-cost option to organically generate prospects which will keep our exploration inventory full of opportunities for many years to come. Kosmos was an active participant in the last lease sale in March 2019 capturing a significant amount of resource at low cost. In Lease Sale 252, we were the parent high bidder on 9 of the 10 blocks we bid on, securing multiple prospects that support five potential new hubs. Combined, these prospects held an estimated 420 million barrels of oil equivalent gross or 290 million barrels of oil equivalent net of unrisked resource. The chart on the bottom of the slide shows the significant increase in bidding activity since we acquired DGE, providing the team with the commitment and funding to bid on attractive pipeline of prospects. Slide 7 shows the significant progress we've made in the last six months since we entered the Gulf of Mexico. Kosmos and DGE have very similar entrepreneurial cultures, so we were able to quickly and successfully integrated the team; adding a strong ILX capability that enhances our business. Shortly after we closed the transaction, we made a discovery at Nearly Headless Nick of subsequent and expanded our seismic dataset. We're already driving strong production growth through bringing new development wells online, we are also deepening our prospect hopper through developing partnerships and participating in the lease sales. The growth opportunity basin is significant and we plan to drill four to five wells per year targeting 65 million to 100 million barrels of oil equivalent of unrest net resource per year. With the recent lease sale success, we have over five years of future drilling inventory, which will require approximately $60 million to $100 million of net exploration CapEx per year. Slide 8 shows the depth of our Gulf of Mexico prospect inventory in more detail. We're targeting to build resource initially around three new hubs; the Resolution hub which I described at the Capital Markets Day, the resolution well is planned for 4Q this year. A Central Mississippi Canyon hub commencing with the oil field test, also planned in 4Q this year and supported by strong list of prospects in the immediate area. And finally, Vida, Zora hub underpinned by prospect assets in the last lease sale with the first test planned in 2020. I'd now like to turn the call over to Tom to discuss the balance sheet, our shareholder base and guidance. Tom?