Andy Inglis
Analyst · BMO Capital. Please proceed with your question
(Auidt Start 1:45)Thanks, Jamie and good morning, everyone. I'd like to start the call by reinforcing the key characteristics that define Kosmos' distinctive investment proposition. Kosmos generates cash, we have portfolio rich and value accretive catalysts, and we have a strong balance sheet that underpins our strategy. These themes are consistent with those we set out at our Capital Markets Day in February, and I'd like to go through them in more detail. First, Kosmos has a portfolio that delivers cash. In the third quarter we generated approximately $70 million of free cash flow and we remain on track to deliver over $200 million in 2019 at current prices, our third year in a row of positive free cash flow. For context in 2019 this represents a free cash flow yield around 10%, which continues to be very competitive compared with other E&P companies and indeed other sectors. Second, our infrastructure-led exploration or ILX program is working. Today we're pleased to announce our first success in Equatorial Guinea alongside the two ILX discoveries in the GoM since Kosmos acquired DGE last year. Both on production this year, we have now made three discoveries from four ILX wells in total. With our results this morning, we announced that the test of the Moneypenny prospect was unsuccessful. The well, which was targeting net resources of around 9 million barrels oil equivalent was designed as an inexpensive exploration tail of the Odd Job development well and costs around $3.5 million net to Kosmos. We have two more, near-term ILX wells in the GoM. We're currently drilling resolution and we will spud oilfield in December. These are the largest ILX prospects in the 2019 drilling campaign and both could be transformational for our GoM business in the event of success. Third, we’ve demonstrated with the recently announced Orca discovery that Kosmos has a focused high impact exploration program. We believe the Orca field has an estimated 13 TCF of gas in place and the well has helped to de-risk around 50 TCF in the BirAllah area. Orca is the largest deepwater hydrocarbon discovery in the world so far this year. Fourth, with the recent success of Orca plus a significant appraisal success we've had a Yakaar and Tortue this year, the total resource estimate for the Mauritania/ Senegal basin has increased the top end of the 50 to 100 TCF gas in place range. As a result of these major resource additions, we have extended the selldown process into 2020 to allow the buyer pool more time to evaluate the new data. And finally, our conservative approach to managing the balance sheet has not changed. We continue to use free cash flow to fund the company's dividend and pay down debt. We expect to end the year with leverage of around 1.8 times. Turning to slide three. I’d now like to discuss the third quarter in more detail. As mentioned on the previous slide, Kosmos generated $70 million of free cash in 3Q. CapEx for the quarter was in line with expectations, and full year CapEx remains within the targeted range. With the free cash generated, we paid off our revolving credit facility, and we will pay a dividend of $0.045 for the quarter. Production for 3Q was flat versus 2Q taking out the impact of Hurricane Barry, which resulted in around 1,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day of lost production for the quarter. It was also slightly negatively impacted by unplanned downtime at Ceiba, which is partially offset by the successful ESP program at Okume with 5 ESPs now completed. We expect 4Q to be flat versus 3Q for the company due to deferral by the operator of the gas enhancement work on Jubilee to the first quarter of 2020. As a result, for the full year 2019, we expect production to be around 67,000 barrels oil equivalent per day with lower than expected volumes in Ghana, partially offset by outperformance in the Gulf of Mexico. Our ILX assets continue to make strong progress. In Equatorial Guinea, we had success with the S5 well, more on that in a moment; and in the Gulf of Mexico, we had first oil from Gladden Deep. In Mauritania and Senegal, we continue to make excellent progress. Last week, we announced the Orca-1 discovery and we also announced Yakaar-2 appraisal well result during the quarter, which proved up the Southern extension of the field and supports the Yakaar-Teranga LNG hub and the first phase domestic gas project. And finally at Tortue, we had a successful result with the GTA-1 appraisal well, which expands the Tortue resource potential. The project continues to make good progress with the Phase 1 development around 15% complete at quarter end, which should rise to around 25% by year end. Turning to slide four, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, our ILX program is working. On this slide, I'd like to focus on the progress we've made in the Gulf of Mexico since we acquired DGE 12 months ago. We’ve drilled three exploration wells and had two discoveries, with Nearly Headless Nick and Gladden Deep. The Nearly Headless Nick and Gladden Deep discoveries while small demonstrate the rapid development timelines for these ILX tiebacks. Gladden Deep came online within four months of discovery and Nearly Headless Nick is expected online in December, a 15-month development. It’s these short development times that result in higher returns and quick paybacks for these projects. Looking at the right side of the slide, we are currently drilling Resolution, and we expect to spud the oilfield prospect in December. These prospects are potentially much larger and can be transformational for our Gulf of Mexico business. To use a baseball analogy, and apologies to my fellow Astro fans on the line, our ILX portfolio in the GoM offers low risk singles and doubles, which will replace the reserves that we produced during the year. We complement that with larger prospects that can deliver the home run catalysts, if successful. Turning to slide five, which looks at our ILX program in Equatorial Guinea. This morning we announced success with our initial ILX well in EG. This was the first well to be drilled on modern 3D seismic improved our concept around the potential of the under explored Rio Muni basin. The seismic for the S-5 areas was fast tracked, and the well-targeted the heart of a Santonian channel, whereas previous wells were drilled on what we believe was the edge of the channel. The well encountered approximately 39 meters of net oil pay with better reservoir development than any of the previous wells drilled in the area. From the [ph] logging data, it looks like the oil is higher quality than we have at Ceiba and Okume and the well could flow at an initial rate of over 10,000 barrels of oil per day, which would be a material increment to the current Ceiba and Okume production. The field is within 20 kilometers of the Ceiba FPSO which puts it well within tieback range we’re now doing the work to establish the scalar of this given resource and evaluate the optimum development solution to tie it back into the existing infrastructure. Work is also now underway to identify additional low risk tieback prospects around the existing infrastructure. Final volumes from the 2018 seismic are expected to be delivered in early 2020 align for the maturation of prospects for the next drilling campaign. Slide six shows the considerable progress we made since taking the final investment decision on Tortue less than a year ago. Through the successful GTA-1 appraisal well we expanded our resource base at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim and we expect to use this well as a future producer. Beyond the appraisal drilling as you can see from the table at the bottom and images on the right, we've made considerable progress on Phase 1 of the project since FID. Key workstreams are progressing well with the FLNG vessel in particular almost 25% done. We expect the overall project to be approximately 25% finished by the end of the year. Our estimate for first gas for Tortue remains the first half of 2022. Turning to slide seven, our appraisal well at Yakaar-2 confirm the southern extension of the field. And as you can see on the right this test demonstrated how laterally extensive the field is. Combined with Teranga, we now have the resource required to underpin an LNG hub in Senegal, which will be developed using a phased approach with a domestic gas leading to an LNG export project. Slide eight shows the technical highlights of the Orca-1 discovery we announced last week. We believe the Orca field has 13 TCF of gas initially in place in thick excellent quality Albian reservoirs as can be seen from the log data on the left of the slide. The discovery continues our 100% track record on the inboard trend and demonstrates the ability of the high quality calibrated AVO tool to identify gas in quality reservoirs. The well which was drilled 7.5 kilometers off structure confirmed our pre-drill expectation of both structural and stratigraphic traps are present and working. Turning to slide nine, Orca is Kosmos is ninth discovery in the Mauritania Senegal basin, and the largest deepwater hydrocarbon discovery in the world so far in 2019. The well was drilled into a previously untested Albian play and encountered 36 meters of net pay in excellent quality reservoirs. Together with Marsouin, we believe we now have the rest of the 50 TCF of gas in place in Mauritania alone, more than enough gas to underpin a standalone LNG hub in Mauritania. There is also additional upside potential in an untested Aptian play and we remain very excited about this area. So turning to the final slide, one that we presented at the Capital Markets Day in February this year. At the time, we estimated that Mauritania Senegal Diego at around 50 TCF of gas in plays with upside potential to double that in the event of successful exploration and appraisal campaign this year. We've done that with success at GTA-1, Yakaar-2 and Orca-1, n we've increased the resource base at the top end of the range to around 100 TCF across the basin, providing sufficient resource to underpin three LNG hubs, totaling 30 million tons per annum of capacity. With a significant resource additions through 2019. we've extended the selldown process into 2020 to allow the buyer pool more time to evaluate the new data. So, to summarize today's presentation, Kosmos continues to be highly cash generative. We have an ILX program that delivers high return, short cycle growth that's working in the EG and the GoM. We've doubled the size of our resource base in Mauritania and Senegal through successful exploration and appraisal in 2019. And we have a strong balance sheet that underpins the strategy. Thank you and I'd now like to turn the call over to the operator to open the session for questions.