Walter Turner
Analyst · Oppenheimer & Co
Thanks, Leroy. Moving now to the subject of growth issues. You may have seen our press release earlier this week announcing an agreement to acquire a utility pole business in Western Australia which will complement our existing utility pole business there. This business accounts for 3% of our consolidated sales but it has generated about 7% of our consolidated operating income through September of this year and generates the highest EBITDA margins in the company. This agreement to enter this acquisition is expected to generate over $10 million of annual revenue.
We also recently attended a signing ceremony in China related to our new 300,000 ton tar installation plant in Jiangsu Province which represented another milestone to advance this project. The plant is expected to be fully operational by middle of 2014 and it is expected to generate $150 million to $200 million of sales on an annualized basis.
The joint venture will be a net contributor in earnings in 2014 and will generate above average segment margins beginning in 2015. In addition to the positive sales and profit this project represents what we hope is just a first step in an effort to penetrate a new end market that has the potential to achieve significant growth rates as China continues to generate large quantities of scrap steel as a result of the economy’s growth over this last decade. Adding another end market for our pitch will further enhance the diversity in our business that has served us well over the past 24 years.
And one of our largest end markets, the global aluminum industry, recent projections indicate a 4% increase in consumption for 2012. And an additional increase of 7% in consumption for 2013 which are positive indications for our global Carbon Pitch business moving forward. Do we continue to focus on maintaining our strong market shares in North American and Europe and Australia while expanding our presence in the developing markets of the Middle East, China, India and Brazil? And as a result you should expect to see those emerging markets continue to grow each year as a proportion of our overall business.
Now I’d like to talk about where we stand on the progress towards meeting our margin improvement goal of achieving a sustainable 12% EBITDA margin by the year end 2015. There’s no question that we have been very successful thus far on the Railroad Utility Product side of the business in generating margin expansion. Through the first nine months of 2012 this business is showing adjusted operating margins that are already 180 basis points higher than the similar period of 2011. Pricing has by far played the biggest role in capturing that improvement. But there have been other significant contributors as well such as the closure of the Grenada, Mississippi facility, the development of the export market for railroad products and the further development of new higher value products such as the borate-treated crossties and new joint rail products.
How high can we possibly go in the Railroad Utility Products business? It’s hard to tell at this point because some of the margin improvement is being generated as a result of the overall strength of the North American railroad industry.
So there is a portion of the current increase margin that could be vulnerable to a decline in a softer market. However, most of the near term results have come on the commercial side of the business and we are early in the process of evaluating the possibilities that we have on the cost side to help insulate us during a potential market downturn.
The Carbon Materials and Chemicals progress has been more difficult to gauge at a high level because of all the unusual items that have affected their margins this year. Between the Australian fish tank leak, the large reserve for the European bad debt and the plant outage at the Uithoorn, Netherlands plant, the Carbon Materials and Chemicals business has incurred an additional $8.8 million of expense through the first nine months of this year. Their adjusted operating margins through September 2012 are 8.6% compared to 9.9% through September 2011.
I need to remind everyone, however, that the 9.9% margin through September 2011 is based upon operating income that is restated to show the Australian Carbon Black business as a discontinued operation.
If you compare the adjusted operating margins with the $8.8 million of unusual costs, added back to the as-reported adjusted operating margins, those September 2011 -- through 2011, the picture looks quite different. The margins through September 2012 and 2011 in that case are 9.8% and 9.0% respectively, an 80 basis point increase.
So that indicates that we are making progress but it is unfortunately being masked by several large non-recurring items.
The specific areas that account for the pro forma margin increase are improved pricing, the shutdown of the Australian Carbon Black facility and the increased use of lower cost substitute D stocks in our chemical production process.
We have a lot more work to do in this business and we are actively working on several cost reduction initiatives that are in various stages of implementation. And I will continue to update you on our progress with these initiatives as we move forward.
As I look out of the remainder of this year, we will continue to have a few headwinds with our raw material availability and cost, as well as the weak European economy. Despite these headwinds we believe that we will finish the year with an adjusted EPS level of 10% to 15% higher than last year’s restated adjusted EPS of $2.86.
I think we will for the following reasons. The first is pricing. One constant throughout the year is our ability to achieve stronger year-over-year pricing that will not change and this will not change in the fourth quarter. The second is demand. While railroad products will see a seasonal drop-off, demand is still expected to be relatively strong in the fourth quarter.
In the Utilities business we are already seeing an increase in sales due to the damage caused by Hurricane Sandy. Additionally in Carbon Materials and Chemicals, carbon pitch demand is expected to be considerably stronger than the fourth quarter of last year due to a change in timing of production, campaign of one of our larger customers combined with higher export sales. The third, there’s a benefit generated from the shutdown of the Grenada, Mississippi utility pole treatment plant which should provide approximately $1 million of pre-tax benefit.
A fourth is a combination of the contribution from the other margin improvement initiatives that should have a positive impact on the quarter. And finally fifth is not only avoiding the $1.5 million of unusual charges that we incurred in the last year’s fourth quarter but also adding net insurance recoveries an excess of charges incurred during the quarter of approximately $1.6 million. So as a result of these items I just outlined our fourth quarter, adjusted results should be the highest ever recorded as a public company. Potential risk to achieving this level of earnings from the fourth quarter including worsening European economic conditions that result in lower than expected sales volume and the delay of expected insurance recoveries related to the pitch tank leak in Australia.
So now I’d like to give you a few thoughts on the outlook for 2013. For Carbon Materials and Chemicals, we see growth in all of our key end markets in 2013. As mentioned previously global aluminum consumption is expected to grow 7% in 2013 which is a positive indicator for our carbon pitch sales. The automotive industry has seen significant growth in North America as well as globally in 2012 and we see additional strong growth projections for 2013 which should benefit our carbon black feedstock and phthalic anhydride sales.
Additionally, the U.S. housing market which is also a key end market for phthalic anhydride has recently been showing signs of improvement as housing starts in September were up 15% to the highest level in four years. There are indications that this momentum will continue into 2013 and hopefully accelerate even further. With the relatively weak steel and coal production this year, we’ve experienced tightness in tar supplies in certain regions, particularly North America and Europe. That has resulted in higher tar costs. However, through our global supply base and logistics network we have been able to procure adequate amounts of coal tar to meet our customers’ requirements, although at higher costs.
As mentioned in our last call, we expect to have access to additional tar in the U.S. in early 2013 from the new U.S. steel coal battery and are hopeful that by the end of 2013 the coal plant in Western Pennsylvania will be back up and running to provide additional sources of power for us. The additional production should lead to stabilization of raw material pricing in North America and combined with growing end markets should lead to a stronger year-end 2013 for the global Carbon Materials and Chemicals business.
In regard to our Railroad Utility Products business we should have another strong year in 2013 as continued strong demand and improved pricing for railroad crossties, increased sales of value added products, the agreement to acquire the utility pole business in Australia, and trying to expand our export crosstie businesses should result in a stronger year-end 2012. When you put this all together for 2013 early indications are that we should see moderate growth in sales for both businesses. But more importantly double digit earnings growth has once again the diversity of our global markets and geographic footprint provide us with stability in our overall business which allows us to continue to generate attractive earnings growth in an overall challenging economic environment.
So at this time I would like to open the lines for any questions that you may have.