David H. Knopf - The Kraft Heinz Co.
Management
Thanks, Bernardo. From an overall perspective, despite the near-term top line pressures and accelerated investments that Bernardo outlined, our full year outlook is for constant currency EBITDA growth, strong adjusted EPS growth and a significant increase in free cash flow generation. And I'll explain the drivers of each. At EBITDA, we expect to see a combination of strong net savings from both carryover integration synergies and new programs, tempered by a combination of cost inflation, including non-key commodities, freight, and people costs, as well as $250 million to $300 million we're investing in white space expansion, Big Bet innovations, go-to-market and service capabilities. Additionally, EBITDA performance is likely to be skewed to the second half, reflecting the upfront acceleration in our investments, cost inflation, particularly freight at the outset of the year, as well as the top line weakness in the U.S. that Bernardo outlines. For earnings per share, we expect growth to be driven by tax savings and our focus on profitable growth. We expect to benefit from a reduction in our effective tax rate in both 2018 and going forward. We're now forecasting a run rate in the range of 20% to 24% versus the previous 30% run rate expected prior to the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. For 2018, we currently expect to be at the high end of that range or approximately 23%, down from the 28.6% adjusted effective tax rate in 2017. Also note that this will be partially offset by roughly $100 million of incremental interest expense and approximately $70 million of incremental depreciation versus 2017. Finally, cash generation where we expect a significant improvement in three areas. One is lower post-integration capital expenditures. Here we're forecasting approximately $850 million in 2018 versus $1.2 billion in 2017. As a percent of net sales, 2018 CapEx will be at the top end to slightly higher than the 2.5% to 3% of net sales run rate we expect over time, again, as we accelerate our investment activity. The second area of improvement is the impact from the lower tax rate, and the third is from opportunities we see to further reduce working capital. All things considered, we remain confident that a strong earnings profile should continue to show through, driven by a combination of profitable sales, EBITDA growth and tax savings. Even more important, we're confident that we can do this while we accelerate investments to adapt and modernize our capabilities and our brands for sustainable growth, as we outlined on the business framework presentation we posted yesterday, which I hope you will all have a chance to review. Thank you. And now we'd be happy to take your questions.