Jordan Wu
Analyst · Topeka. Your line is now open
Thank you, Jackie. We are mindful that 2016 will likely be a year of macro uncertainty, marked by currency fluctuations and the risk of China’s slowdown. However, looking into the new year, we believe our businesses will be resilient to macro headwinds for reasons set out below. Our large panel driver ICs for TV application will grow from higher 4K TV penetration and the added capacities from China. In terms of small and medium sized driver ICs, those for automotive applications, where we have a leading market share, will continue to show strong growth as more panels are going into vehicles. For smartphone applications, we believe that the adoption of 4G network should rise in China stimulating demand in 2016. We are also a believer in technology integration such as TDDI in smartphones. Revenue contribution from TDDI will likely take place in the second half of 2016. Non-driver products wise, 2016 will be the year for us to see a bigger revenue percentage generated by LCOS and WLO product lines as shipments to our major customers start to take off. We will also tap into new territories such as IoT and machine vision with our latest CIS and WLO product offerings as stated in the our recent press releases. Overall, 2016 will be a year of growth for both, top and bottom line. With that I will now provide our first quarter guidance followed by a more detailed outlook. For the first quarter of 2016, we expect revenue to be down 1% to up 4% sequentially. Gross margin is expected to be around 25% as opposed to 22.9% in the previous quarter, depending on our final product mix. GAAP earnings attributable to shareholders are expected to be in the range of 5.5 cents to 7.5 cents per diluted ADS based on 172.3 million of outstanding ADS. In providing the above earnings guidance, we have assumed a 20% income tax rate, calculated based on exchange rate of NT dollar 33.45 against the U.S. dollar which is also the exchange rate as of beginning of February. Now, let me provide you with some details behind our guidance and trends that we see developing in our businesses. Following a strong fourth quarter, large panel driver ICs should continue to grow around 10% sequentially and high-teens year over year, with China and 4K TV still the major growth engines. We expect our 4K TV to double in the first quarter sequentially and close to triple over the same period last year. In our previous earnings calls, we mentioned that large panel makers are increasing the demanding the total solution from IC vendors. We are experiencing accelerating demand from panel manufacturers seeking IC vendors who can provide driver IC, timing controller, Gamma OP, and PMIC as a total solution. Meanwhile, timing controller is getting more and more technologically advanced, with high end models integrating sophisticated functions such as MEMC. This positions us very well in the high end 4K TV market. As the industry migrates to 8K TV, which is already in product development, our business and technology strength and integrated product solutions will be a significant differentiator against the competition. The other segment in our driver business is ICs used in small and medium-sized panels for applications including smartphones, tablets and automotives. First quarter sales for smartphones are likely to remain flat, despite few working days around Chinese New Year. Our end customers, including a newly added first-tier player, are launching new models and replenishing inventories ahead of the holidays. Furthermore, we are seeing accelerating full HD shipments and design-wins in our pipeline, a testament to the trend that full HD is quickly becoming the new mainstream display resolution for smartphones, replacing HD720. We are also pleased to report that our shipments of AMOLED driver IC to key Korean customer will start later this quarter, reaffirming our technology leadership in the area. As we are collaborating with multiple customers both in Korea and China on AMOLED product development, we believe AMOLED driver ICs will be one of the critical future growth engines of our small panel driver IC business, especially with quite a few new AMOLED fabs being built in China where we have the most comprehensive coverage. Among driver ICs used in small and medium-sized panels, the best-performing category has been automotives in recent years. We anticipate Q1 shipments to be slightly higher than the previous quarter, growing double-digit year-over-year. We expect the growth to stay robust throughout the year. With numerous top automobile brands having been our indirect end customers, we are well-positioned to take advantage of the growing market in 2016 and beyond. The driver ICs used in tablets, as previously indicated, remain weak and will decline double digit in the first quarter, resulting in a declining small and medium-sized driver IC segment in the first quarter of around mid single-digit sequentially. For the past few years, our non-driver business segment has been our most exciting growth segment and a differentiator for Himax. New product development continues to evolve and gain traction, and we remain positive on the long-term growth prospect of our non-driver businesses. We expect mid single digit sequential growth in our non-driver products for the first quarter. Looking ahead, many of our non-driver products, including our CMOS image sensor, timing controller, touch panel controller, PMIC, ASIC service, WLO and LCOS microdisplays, are set to grow significantly in 2016 and the years ahead. I will now highlight some of the non-driver product lines. First of all our touch panel controller product line, we exited 2015 with our touch panel controller sales flat year-over-year as the industry shifted to on-cell and pure in-cell TDDI. We expect on-cell to become the mainstream touch technology in 2016. We have also launched force touch products, a new feature to the touch panel, and already secured design-wins from leading smartphone makers for their 2016 models. Our on-cell sales will significantly accelerate starting late first quarter with shipments to Chinese and Japanese smartphone makers. Furthermore, we are one of the pioneers in offering TDDI solutions for the state-of-the-art pure in-cell panels, which have started small volume production in 2015. We are in partnerships with essentially all of the panel manufacturers in pure in-cell touch for joint technological development and believe there is a strong market for us going forward. We expect to see its contribution starting second half this year. Moving on to our most exciting AR/VR related businesses, the recent CES Show showcased the fast-growing, multi-billion dollar AR/VR sector under development. Participants included leading multinationals in the gaming, search, mobile, social media, military and consumer industries. Having invested in the technologies for over 15 years, we are uniquely positioned as the provider of choice for microdisplay and related optics to enable AR. As some of our major customers have already announced product launches, revenues from LCOS and WLO are expected to double sequentially in the first quarter off a small base, marking the beginning of mass production for some of our leading AR device customers. While most customers don’t expect big volume for their early generation products, we have been working with many of them for future generation devices. We are also seeing constant additions of new customers using our LCOS and/or WLO for a variety of new applications. We currently have more than 30 customers using our LCOS and/or WLO for their AR devices and optical engine designs, with the vast majority of them coming from the U.S. When adopted, our LCOS and WLO typically represent two of the parts with the highest value in an AR product’s bill-of-materials. As for VR applications, as mentioned in our press release in January, we have had new driver IC design-wins with two top-notch VR players in the next generation OLED panels for their VR devices. In addition, in a recent press release, we introduced WLO laser diode collimator with integrated Diffractive Optical Element or DOE. We believe this is the most effective solution for 3D sensing and detection. Our technology can reduce the size of the incumbent laser projector module by a factor of 9, actually making it smaller than conventional camera modules. This breakthrough allows the solution to be easily integrated into next-generation smartphones, tablets, automobiles, AR/VR devices, IoT devices, and consumer electronics accessories to enable new applications in the consumer, medical, and industrial marketplaces. To be paired with the laser projector module mentioned above, we are also developing a Near Infrared sensor or NIR sensor to provide customers with a total solution. Additionally, in January, we announced an ultra-low-power QVGA CMOS image sensor, which, we believe is by far the lowest power CIS in the industry with similar resolution, while offering outstanding sensor performance and high level of feature integration. IT can be in a constant state of operation, enabling “always on”, contextually aware, computer vision capabilities such as feature extraction, proximity sensing, gesture recognition, object tracking and pattern identification. Likewise, it can be applied in new applications across smartphones, tablets, VR/AR devices, IoT and artificial intelligence. This series of smart sensors will open a new business territory for our CIS products. In terms of our 8-megapixel and 13- megapixel CMOS image sensors with PDAF feature, we are catching up very fast. We believe, we will be one of the few players capable of providing PDAF-equipped CMOS image sensors in the very near future. We will report progress in due course. And that will conclude our non-driver business segment. Thank you for interest in Himax. We appreciate you joining today the call, and are now ready to take questions.