James Ajello
Analyst · Glenrock Associates. Please go ahead
Thanks, Connie. I will start with Hawaii's economy. Hawaii visitor spending increased 10.4% in September to a record $1.2 billion making it the fourth straight month of increases. Visitor arrivals also set a new record for the month of September rising 3% from last year and extended Hawaiian streak to 20 consecutive months of growth in arrivals. Year-to-date September visitor arrivals and expenditures increased 2.6% and 3.7% respectively from a year-ago. Statewide unemployment was 3.3% in September compared to 3.4% a year ago significantly below the national average of 5%, actually this morning as a 4.9%. Hawaii’s real estate activity remained strong during September with medium sales price for single-family homes in Oahu at $750,000 up 2.7% from last year and up 5.2% year-to-date September. However, according to the University of Hawaii September 30 forecast update, although, the Hawaii economy continues to roll along there are signs of a slowdown ahead with the maturing of the construction cycle and real estate GDP expected to grow just 2% in 2016. Turning to our third quarter results on Slide 5, reading across the slide from left to right, consolidated GAAP net income of $127.1 million included the one-time impact of $63.8 million in net income at the holding company. This included the NextEra pre-tax $90 million termination fee and $5 million for the reimbursement of merger expenses. $8 million in additional tax benefits on previously non-deductible merger and spin expenses and other merger and spin expenses in the quarter. And additional tax benefit related to the domestic production activities deduction which was accrued at $8 million of which $2 million relates to the additional taxable income attributed to emerge in the third quarter and was therefore not included in core earnings. In other words, the DPAD benefits would have been lower and less taxable income from non-core items such as the merger and spin termination fee. Reading all the way across to the right hand side of the slide excluding the merger and spin expenses and fees and the $2 million I just referred to, core net income was $63.3 million compared to $52.4 million in the third quarter of 2015 or up $10.9 million. Core net income was $10.9 million higher than the prior year quarter driven primarily by $6 million of the DPAD benefit as HEI has moved out of the federal net operating loss position enabling the recognition of tax benefits of the holding company. Of the $6 million $4 million is attributed to the 2015 tax year and $2 million is attributed to the first three quarters of 2016. Moving forward, we estimate that HEI would benefit by approximately $0.02 per share on an annualized basis. Slide 6 is the corresponding version of Slide 5, but on an EPS basis. 2016 GAAP earnings per share were a $1.17 excluding the one-time impact of $0.59 per share of the holding company for the merger and spin related items. Core earnings per share were $0.58 compared to $0.49 per share in the third quarter of 2015. As shown on Slide 7, HEI’s GAAP consolidated ROE for the last 12 months ended in September was 12.3% excluding earnings impacts related to the recently terminated merger and spin HEI’s core consolidated ROE was 9.5%. The GAAP ROE contributions were 8.1% from the utility and 9.8% from the bank. On Slide 8, utility earnings were $47 million in the third quarter of 2016 compared to $43 million in the prior year quarter, primarily driven by the following after tax items. $5 million in lower operating and maintenance expenses largely due to one-time items in the prior year quarter partially offset by $1 million of higher depreciation expense due to increased investments for improved customer reliability, greater system efficiency and integration of more renewable energy. O&M expenses were also lower primarily due to the third quarter of 2015 including an adjustment for enterprise resource planning, software costs and lower overhaul costs in the current year quarter due to fewer overhauls performed. At the bank, net income for the third quarter of 2016 was $15.1 million, $1.8 million higher than the linked quarter primarily driven by $2 million in after tax higher revenues due to higher non-interest expense income which included a gain on sale of real estate and higher mortgage banking income and higher net interest income primarily due to growth in the commercial real estate and consumer loan portfolios. Higher revenues were partially offset by higher provision for loan losses, primarily due to reserves for specific commercial credits. Compared to the third quarter of 2015, third quarter 2016 net income improved by $1.7 million at the bank, primarily driven by the following after-tax, $2 million in higher net interest income due to growth and higher yields in the commercial real estate and consumer loan portfolios which was partially offset by $2 million and higher provision for loan losses mainly related to our commercial markets and consumer loan portfolios. Slide 9, shows the utilities’ actual ROEs for the last 12 months. The consolidated utility ROE was 8.1% in line with 2016 guidance of approximately 8%. The improvement in Hawaii Electric Light ROE to 8.5% from 6.3% was primarily due to lower O&M expense compared to 2015. As 2015 included extensive and higher vegetation management costs. And higher storm recovery cost due to heightened activity in 2015. The decline in the Maui Electric ROE to 8.4% from 9.2% was primarily due to higher O&M expense due to overhauling of generating units. On Slide 10, you can see that American continued to deliver solid profitability metrics. Year-to-date we achieved a return on assets of 89 basis points and expect to achieve our full-year target of 90 basis points as our net interest margin improves. Because the bank has been selling its residential loan portfolio and lowered its exposure to national credits. Our loan balance has decreased slightly for the quarter. However, year-to-date annualized loan growth was 3.4% and we are on track with our target of mid single-digit loan growth for the year. Year-to-date loan growth was driven primarily by commercial real estate and consumer loans. The year-to-date net interest margin of 3.59% is at the higher end of our guidance range benefiting from higher yields on our growing commercial and consumer portfolios. Based upon the higher than initially anticipated year-to-date credit costs we are revising our net charge-off ratio to the range of 15 to 20 basis points. Overall the bank continues to maintain its robust deposit base strong capital levels and straightforward community banking business model. On Slide 11, our net interest margin of 3.57% in the third quarter of 2016 was one basis point lower than the linked quarter, but four basis points higher than the prior year quarter. Our interest earning asset yield declined by one basis point. And our liability cost of 24 basis point increased by one basis point compared to the linked quarter. On Slide 12, pretax non-interest income was $1.9 million higher than the linked quarter primarily due to $1 million gain on the sale of real estate and higher mortgage banking income. Slide 13, the increasing loan loss reserves reflect growth in the commercial real estate and consumer loans which require higher reserve levels. Provision for loan losses was higher than the linked quarter and the prior year quarter largely due to reserves for specific commercial credits. As a result of our year-to-date actual results of $15.3 million we are revising our annual provision guidance range to $16 million to $19 million. The third quarter 2016 net charge off ratio was 20 basis points, five basis points higher than the linked quarter, partially related to ASPs strategic expansion of the unsecured commercial loan product with risk based pricing. The allowance for loan losses was 1.24% of outstanding loans were $59 million at quarter end compared to 1.16% at the end of the linked quarter at 1.08% as of the prior year-end. On Slide 14, Americans non-performing assets ratio was 1.12% at the end of the third quarter of 2016 compared to 1.02% at the end of the linked quarter. The increase was primarily due to a commercial loan relationship being downgraded to non-accrual status during the quarter despite the borrower being payment current. Slide 15, illustrates American’s continued attractive asset and funding mix relative to our peer banks. American’s September 20, 2016 balance sheet is compared to the last complete available data set for our peers which is as of June 30, 2016. 100% of our loan portfolio was funded with low cost core deposits versus the aggregate of our peer banks at 83%. Year-to-date total deposits increased by $355 million or 9.4% annualized while maintaining a very low cost of funds of 24 basis points, 20 basis points lower than the median for our peers. In the third quarter of 2016 American paid $9 million in dividends to HEI and American remains well capitalized at September 30 with a leverage ratio of 8.6%, tangible common equity to tangible assets ratio of 8% and total capital ratio of 13.3%. I will now address HEI’s outlook for 2016. Turning to Slide 17, we are revising our 2016 CapEx estimates to $340 million which excludes the Hamakua Energy Partners plant purchase estimated previously for 2016 based on the procedural schedule extension into January 2017. Rate base growth is estimated to be flat largely due to bonus depreciation, offsetting plant additions and the impact of CapEx spending in 2016, which will not go into service until later periods. And example of this would be the Schofield project now in construction. Under the modified decoupling order, we would expect about $275 million annually of plant additions recovered under the ramp cap. Capital expenditures above this level would require specific PUC approval because the Schofield project was filed prior to this new ramp cap mechanism in early 2017. Hawaiian Electric will be filing a PUC application requesting recovery of costs for the PUC approved Schofield project via the RAM. The project is scheduled to be completed in the first quarter of 2018. The ERP project has been approved and is currently scheduled to be completed in the fourth quarter of 2018. We are proposing to recover costs by a surcharge mechanism. We have also included in the 2018 forecast, the 20 megawatt solar facility at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam that Connie mentioned. This would be an estimated $67 million if the PUC approves the project. Turning to Slide 18, we are revising HEI’s 2016 core earnings guidance range somewhat higher and tighter to a $1.72 to $1.78 per share from a $1.62 to $1.75 per share based upon our year-to-date actual performance and excluding any terminated merger or spin off related items. And in light of the merger termination PUC, we do not anticipate meeting any external equity including our dividend reinvestment plan proceeds in 2017. At the utility, we are maintaining the utilities EPS guidance range of a $1.28 to a $1.36. And as just noted, rate base growth is estimated to be flat and long-term debt issuance is estimated to be just $40 million in 2016. At the bank, we are maintaining the bank EPS range of $0.50 to $0.54. However, we expect steady instead of higher fee and mortgage banking income. And as we mentioned earlier, we now expect provision expense to be in the range of $16 million to $19 million and charged-offs to be in the range of 15 basis points to 20 basis points. Overall, we expect the bank return on assets of approximately 90 basis points. Connie now I’ll turn the call back to you for closing remarks.