Richard Krawmer
Analyst · Deutsche Bank
Thank you, Christina, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. This morning, I will review highlights from our first quarter results and provide an update on the market conditions in each of our regions. Laura will follow with a financial overview of each of our businesses and an update to our outlook before we open the call to your questions. In the first quarter, segment operating income was $385 million, which is in line with our most recent guidance and a great achievement given the headwinds in the quarter. As we said in February, we expected a decline in unit volume in the first quarter, which was driven by our planned exit of some of the smaller rim size tires in EMEA and expectations for reduced OE demand in both the U.S. and China. Since then, volumes have been weaker than expected, especially in replacement, and sellout in the U.S. during the first quarter was softer than anticipated. In addition, we believe the timing of our price increases, which came relatively early in the quarter, had a negative effect on our volume. Even amidst these headwinds, we delivered segment operating margin of 10% and adjusted earnings per share of $0.74. These were simply excellent results for our teams who stuck to our strategy in an environment of rising raw material costs. We delivered cost savings, stayed focused on price and mix and did not diminish our value proposition for short-term volume increases. Our balanced plan to create value through sustainable revenue and profit growth is the objective of our strategy road map. It provides us with a constancy of purpose and informs the execution of our strategy despite market conditions that could tempt us to do otherwise. We are committed to the strategy road map and remain confident that we will continue to execute over the long term. Regarding the first quarter, I can't recall a time when it was more critical for us to have the discipline and commitment to the execution of our strategy. And we will need to do more of the same in the second quarter. The Americas provided an example of this approach in the first quarter as our discipline and commitment to the execution of our strategy was critical. This was particularly true in the U.S. as domestic auto production declined and consumer replacement sellout trends were somewhat weaker than we expected. Americas total unit volume declined 5%, driven by our U.S. consumer OE business. The Americas consumer OE unit volume declined by 13%, driven in part by lower U.S. auto production during the quarter. In addition, our OE performance this year is related to last year's very strong comparable where we saw first quarter 2016 U.S. consumer OE shipments up 11%, while the market was up just 2%. Overall, our OE volume performance this quarter is generally consistent with what we had expected at the time of our fourth quarter call. For the rest of the year, we continue to expect softness in U.S. OE production, particularly in the second and third quarter. It's important to keep in mind that the SAR continues near last year's levels, the auto industry still has favorable macro tailwinds, and mix is shifting in a more favorable direction toward light trucks and SUVs. This mixup plays to our strengths in OE where we have fitments on popular vehicles, such as the Ford F-150, and drives pull-through in the high-margin replacement segment. We're committed to winning in OE, and we'll continue to collaborate with OEMs in ways that both deliver value for them and are consistent with our strategy. For the company overall, the important takeaways in this quarter is that despite a decline in U.S. auto production, we are delivering on our plan with positive price/mix versus raw materials performance. That's the strength and the power of the Goodyear brand. Turning now to the U.S. consumer replacement industry. Sell-in demand remained solid and was up about 1%. We saw growth in the 17-inch and larger segment of the industry at 8%, which is driving continued mixup in our business. Total industry sellout during the quarter was softer than expected. We believe the weakness in sellout is related to warmer weather trends in the Northeast and Midwest as well as a delay in tax refunds affecting the U.S. consumer. You'll also recall that our price increase announced early in the year took effect February 1, which was the first in the U.S. market this year. This timing also played a role in this quarter's volume story as our Americas consumer replacement volume declined 1%. We continue to expect moderate U.S. industry growth in replacement in 2017 as many of the key economic indicators continue to be positive. According to the most recent data, U.S. vehicle miles traveled rose 2% in February, and gasoline demand rose 1% year-over-year in March. In addition, employment levels and gasoline prices all remain favorable and provide a productive platform for growth throughout the remainder of the year. Turning now to Brazil. I'm pleased to share that its first quarter was a very strong start to 2017 on all fronts. Brazil showed high single-digit volume growth in consumer replacement, almost 8% volume growth in our commercial business, and our commercial OE showed slight but positive year-over-year growth for the first time since early 2012. I'm very pleased with these results, and I'm encouraged that the country is beginning to show tangible signs of climbing out of its 2-year recession. And while our business in Brazil is far from its historical earnings level, we're clearly headed in the right direction. Across our markets in the Americas, our value proposition has allowed us to excel through improved price/mix, operational excellence initiatives and a commitment to executing our strategy. Shifting to Europe. Our EMEA business unit delivered $98 million in segment operating income during the first quarter, up 23% versus the prior year. EMEA's volume performance in the 17-inch and greater segment of the replacement market outpaced the industry, which grew at 12%. We are executing on our plan to mix up our product portfolio in EMEA. Goodyear-branded summer tires, particularly the Goodyear EfficientGrip Performance and the Eagle F1 Asymmetric 3 claimed podium wins in several important magazine tests this year, which led Tyrepress recently naming Goodyear as the overall victor in the 2017 summer tire test season. In addition, Dunlop presented the new Sport Maxx Race 2 at Geneva International Motor Show in March. This successor to the Sport Maxx Race has been developed together with Porsche to meet the demanding requirements for its new 911 GT3. With the first-generation Sport Maxx Race tires fitted on the previous models of the GT3, Dunlop continues its commitment to provide specialty tires for Porsche vehicles. As we look ahead, we expect to continue to see declines in the smaller than 17-inch summer segment in EMEA, particularly in the second quarter. We've been strategically reducing our volume in this segment, which has been influenced by increased competition, including a significant presence of low-cost imports. This reduction includes the previously announced footprint action in Philippsburg, Germany, which will be completed by the end of this year. Simultaneously, we are realigning our go-to-market model in EMEA, similar to the approach that we successfully implemented in the U.S. Adjustments to our approach include refining our value proposition by focusing on the growing, more profitable segments of the market; reenergizing our efforts to collaborate with and support our OE partners; introducing new products from the market back; aligning our distribution; taking advantage of the value of the Goodyear brand; and adjusting our high-cost footprint. These actions are consistent with our strategy, and we are committed to their execution even in the face of inevitable hurdles along the way. Finally, in Asia Pacific, strong volume growth in our consumer replacement business offset weaknesses in consumer OE, particularly in China. Similar to the U.S., auto inventories in China were higher during the quarter, which we believe is the result of a slower pace in the first quarter auto sales following a very strong pull ahead of demand in the fourth quarter of 2016. We are expecting weaker volumes in our OE business throughout the first half as our OE customers, who are mainly the large Western JVs, adjust production to align this with near-term reduction in their demand. I think it's important to keep in mind that our first half performance in consumer OE last year was also very strong, up about 20% year-over-year, and was fueled by the tailwind from a tax incentive put in place at the end of 2015. We remain pleased with the performance of our OE business, and we continue to believe that the auto market in China is healthy. As is the case with the industry overall, the OE segment in China will not grow in a straight line but will continue to grow as the world's largest new car market for years to come. Despite the near-term weakness in OE, our China consumer replacement business remains strong. We saw robust double-digit volume growth in the quarter, driven by strong replacement pull-through as well as some prebuy in advance of our price increase there. We continue to expand our retail presence in China and see enormous growth potential in Tier 3 and Tier 4 cities. These are lesser-known cities but have populations of more than 1 million and are continuing to grow. India also had an outstanding quarter, with volume growth in both consumer OE and replacement in mid-single-digit range. And one of the final positive notes on Asia Pacific, after several years of malaise, we are beginning to see an increase in demand for OTR tires. Although off a very low base, the increased level of order activity is encouraging, and we continue to remain optimistic about the long-term value proposition of our business in Asia Pacific. So looking back at the quarter, I'm satisfied with our results. More importantly, I'm pleased with the way we continue to execute our strategy in both strong markets and challenging ones. Our teams have made the commitment to winning with consumers and helping our customers build their businesses every day while taking the long view of creating sustainable value. Our 2017 plan remains on track. We continue to have confidence in our ability to deliver our SOI target of $2 billion this year, and we remain committed to our long-term plan of $3 billion in SOI in 2020. We are confident in our ability to deliver strong results across the entire company because of our commitment to and execution of our strategy. It's what you've seen from us for several years. We will not chase volume for volume's sake. We will compete for profitable growth in market segments where the value of the Goodyear brand, our innovative quality products, our pervasive distribution and service networks and the best team in the industry provide us with a competitive advantage. We are achieving real cost reduction, driven by our operational excellence initiatives to enhance the efficiency of our supply chain to help us get the right tire to the right customer at the right cost. And we're not running our business for 1 good quarter or 1 good year but to create sustainable value for the long term. Now I'll turn the call over to Laura.